Taiwan resolved to procure weapons systems from U.S.

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Taiwan resolved to procure weapons systems from U.S.

Central News Agency 2008-09-28 08:04 PM

Taiwan's plans to procure weapons systems from the United States remain unchanged, as the nation is resolved to defend itself militarily and needs to beef up its self-defense capability, Chang Shuo-wen, a ruling Kuomintang (KMT) legislative caucus whip said Sunday. Taiwan has submitted its military procurement plans to the United States and it is now up to the Bush administration to decide what to do about Taiwan's requests, President Ma Ying-jeou said recently. Taiwan is seeking to buy a weapons package of anti-tank missiles, Apache helicopters, Patriot PAC-3 missile batteries, diesel-electric submarines, P3C Orion anti-submarine aircraft, sea-launched Harpoon anti-ship missiles, and Black Eagle helicopters from the U.S. The U.S. Department of State told Taiwanese news media Friday that Taiwan's arms procurement package is still under inter-departmental screening by the George W. Bush administration. Once a final decision is made on the arms procurement package, the executive branch would notify Congress immediately, the State Department said. When asked whether the arms procurement proposal would be left up to the new U.S. administration, a State Department official said that "there is no timetable for that matter." Commenting on the uncertainties surrounding the arms deal, KMT Legislator Lin Yu-fang, who is the convener of the Legislative Yuan Foreign Affairs and National Defense Committee, said there is no need for Taiwan to worry too much, given that Taiwan remains part of the strategic interests of the United States. Washington would not like to see the Taiwan Strait become a waterway of China, as this would open a big hole in the U.S. defense frontline in the West Pacific, he added. Noting that the supply of defense weapons to Taiwan is part of the stipulations in the United States' Taiwan Relations Act, Lin expressed confidence that whoever is elected the next president of the U.S. will not renege on the commitment. Lin attributed the "bumpy ride" of Taiwan's arms procurement package partly to Washington's reliance on China's cooperation in U.S. anti-terrorism efforts and in its spiraling financial and economic storms. For example, China currently holds between US$500 billion and US$950 billion worth of U.S. Treasury bonds, he said. http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_....php?id=750466

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Tancredo wants subs, choppers and jets for Taiwan

by: Aaron Silverstein 09/27/08 @ 09:46:25 AM MDT Tom Tancredo has introduced a bill to force the sale of 66 F-16s, along with submarines, howitzers, helicopters, torpedoes, missiles, and other large weapons systems to Taiwan, in an effort to shackle the Obama administration to a policy that even George Bush may have never intended to execute. Tancredo is commonly associated with his crusade against immigration, but long time Tancredo watchers have noticed his deep involvement with Taiwan and have speculated on why it alone breaks his nearly single minded focus on making life hard for Latinos. HR 7059 continues Tancredo's efforts to craft aggressive policy for the region. BONUS: On his way out the door, Tancredo has also introduced a bill to evict the UN. Enjoy retirement, Tom. And please, go ahead and let the door hit you.

Aaron Silverstein :: Tancredo wants subs, choppers and jets for Taiwan

The turmoil between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC) has long been a sore spot for US policy. It is a region where what-should-be-done and what-can-be-done often wrestle with one another across a strait flowing with oil tankers and lined with nuclear missiles. In 2001, President Bush responded to saber rattling between China and Taiwan by threatening to pass out more sabers. China protested the sales, calling them: ...an open provocation to China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The U.S. act can only further the arrogance of pro- Taiwan independence forces to split China, intensify the tension across the Taiwan Straits, and harm peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. Such a move will also seriously impact on bilateral cooperation in the nonproliferation field and cause a destructive damage to the Sino- U.S. relations. China claimed that the sales were a "flagrant violation" of three agreements, including one between the US and China from 1982, where the US stated: "it does not seek to carry out a long-term policy of arms sales to Taiwan, that its arms sales to Taiwan will not exceed, either in qualitative or in quantitative terms, the level of those supplied in recent years since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China, and that it intends gradually to reduce its sale of arms to Taiwan, leading, over a period of time, to a final resolution." When pro-Unification candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, was elected it raised concerns that weapons intended to assert Taiwanese independence might just be handed by elements in the Taiwanese military directly to the Chinese. Chief amongst those fears were defectors making off with the 66 F-16 fighter jets. Not part of the original Executive Branch request, they were requested by the Taiwanese in August 2007 to be added to the package. As part of the Tancredo bill, the US military and State Department would be forced to allow their sale as well. As President Ma juggled warming relations with both the US and China, he repeatedly waived off the weapons. It was reported that he wanted the deal to go through, but that the timing of deal needed to be put off. Even before Ma took office, the arms deal has been stalled several times between 2001 and today. Most recently this June, with talks proceeding across the Strait of Taiwan, and with Bush's visit to the Olympics drawing near, the involved governments agreed to hold off on the plan. Responding to the most recent delay, the hawkish Defense News indicated: Sources are mixed on whether the freeze will extend through the remainder of the Bush administration or only until after the August Beijing Olympics. Fears in Taipei are the freeze could become permanent with a new U.S. president in January. Tancredo is apparently not willing to wait for a renewed Bush green light, or risk an Obama administration, so using the 2001 request as authority, and adding in the 2007 wish list, he has introduced legislation to immediately compel the sale. H. R. 7059: To require the sale of certain defense articles and defense services to Taiwan.

[Ryan Ruck]

Not only is such a sale of weapons good to help an ally but, it is also good for our economy by providing jobs!

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Taiwan's defence minister visits US

Agence France Presse

TAIPEI: Taiwan's Defence Minister Chen Chao-min has flown to a defence industry conference in the United States, a military officer said Monday, a rare trip which may irk rival China. Chen is to address the conference and visit Taiwan's naval and air force officers being trained in San Diego and Arizona, a Taiwanese defence ministry officer said on condition of anonymity. Chen is the first Taiwanese defence minister to travel to the United States since 2002 when Tang Yao-ming attended a conference in Texas. His trip is particularly sensitive because it comes amid speculation that Washington has adopted a policy of freezing arms sales to the island. Taipei is looking to purchase 30 Apache attack helicopters, 60 Black Hawk helicopters, eight submarines and four Patriot air defence missile batteries, according to local media reports. Tensions between Taipei and Beijing have eased since President Ma Ying-jeou of the China-friendly Kuomintang took the office on May 20. Ma was elected on a platform of improving ties with China. Nonetheless, he has pledged to maintain a force sufficient to allow the island to defend itself against any attacks from China. Taiwan and the mainland have been governed separately since they split in 1949 at the end of a civil war but Beijing sees the island as part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary. http://thepost.com.pk/IntNewsT.aspx?...185620&catid=1

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U.S. arms sale to Taiwan certain to rile China

Last Updated: Friday, October 3, 2008 | 4:48 PM ET Comments4Recommend3 CBC News

The U.S. government has announced plans to sell billions of dollars worth of weapons to Taiwan, a move certain to anger China, which considers Taiwan part of its territory.

The weapons include Apache helicopters and Patriot III anti-missile missiles.

Since easily winning the election as president of Taiwan in March, Ma Ying-jeou has carefully avoided open confrontation with the Chinese government in Beijing.

Ma, 57, promised during his campaign to deepen economic links with the mainland and negotiate a new peace treaty. Technically, both sides have been at war since the Kuomintang, Ma's party fled to Taiwan led by Chiang Kai-shek in 1949.

"Under my presidency, there will be peace and prosperity across the Taiwan Strait instead of confrontation and tension,'' Ma told the Bloomberg news agency in an interview shortly before his election.

Ma's bottom line for a peace treaty is that Beijing has to get rid of the 1,000 or so missiles it has aimed at Taiwan.

Taiwan relies on the U.S. weapons to keep a balance with China's massive arms buildup.

The government in Beijing has also made it clear it doesn't want to pick open fights with Taiwan.

In fact, Premier Wen Jia Bao said in March that direct flights, business co-operation — everything is on the table. Then Wen delivered the same old catch: Anything is achievable, so long as Taiwan recognizes there is one China.

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/1...iwan-arms.html

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DSCA Announces $6.4 Billion in Potential Military Sales to Taiwan

DefenseAlert, Oct. 3, 2008 -- The Defense Security Cooperation Agency this week finally announced a raft of foreign military sales to Taiwan potentially worth more than $6.4 billion, with nearly half -- $3.1 billion -- going for Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles and related support equipment.

... would likely anger China. Taiwan approved the weapons purchases last December following a compromise in its legislature that limited some of the sales.

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October 3rd, 2008
U.S. arms sale to Taiwan unveiled
Posted: 06:11 PM ET
WASHINGTON (CNN) — The U.S. State Department has announced a deal to sell $6.4 billion in arms to Taiwan — a move bound to anger China.
State Department deputy spokesman Robert Wood said Congress — whose approval is needed for the deal to go through — was notified Friday afternoon. He indicated the administration expects congressional approval “quickly.”

The package includes a variety of U.S-made weapons systems, including Patriot III anti-missile missiles, Apache helicopters, Harpoon missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles.

U.S. arms sales to Taiwan have always angered China. The latest deal comes at a time when the United States needs China in negotiations over Iran’s and North Korea’s nuclear programs. But Wood said the U.S. government decision is no surprise to Beijing, as the Chinese were briefed “several” times about the impending deal.

–From CNN State Department Correspondent Zain Verjee

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U.S. to sell $6.4 billion in weapons to Taiwan

• Story Highlights
• Arms to include missiles, Apache attack helicopters
• China opposes U.S. supplying weapons to Taiwan
• Deal needs congressional approval
  
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From Zain Verjee
CNN State Department Correspondent

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- In a move bound to anger China, the United States intends to sell $6.4 billion in arms to Taiwan, the State Department said Friday.


Apache attack helicopters are part of the weapons deal.

State Department deputy spokesman Robert Wood said Congress -- whose approval is needed for the deal to go through -- was notified Friday afternoon. He indicated the administration expects congressional approval quickly.

The package includes a variety of U.S.-made weapons systems, including Patriot III anti-missile missiles, Apache attack helicopters, Harpoon missiles and Javelin anti-tank missiles.

The deal had been in the works for a few months, Wood said, and the decision is "consistent with U.S. policy of providing arms for defense of Taiwan and consistent with the Taiwan Relations Act."

"This arms deal is a key factor in bringing security and stability across the Taiwan Strait," he added. The deal also gives Taiwan upgrades for Taiwan's E-2T aircraft and spare parts for its air force.

U.S. arms sales to Taiwan have always angered China. The latest deal comes at a time when the United States needs China in negotiations over Iran's and North Korea's nuclear programs. But Wood said the U.S. government decision is no surprise to Beijing, as the Chinese were briefed "several" times about the impending deal.

This is the latest chapter in a decades-long uneasy standoff. China claims Taiwan is its own territory and has threatened to invade if Taiwan ever declares independence. The United States has said it will defend Taiwan if China ever attacks.

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China Warns US Not To Sell Arms To Taiwan

Submitted by Chip on Mon, 2008-10-06 09:54.

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China warns US not to sell arms to Taiwan | Big News Network.com
China has told the US government that Sino-US relations could be damaged due to the US decision to sell arms to Taiwan.

Despite China's repeated opposition to the move, the US government has notified the Congress about its plan to sell Patriot III anti-missile systems, Apache helicopters and other equipment worth $6.5 billion to Taiwan.
The Chinese government has firmly opposed the sale which it says violates principles set down in the three joint communiques between China and the US.

China’s Foreign Affairs department has warned the deal has endangered Chinese national security and disturbed peaceful cross-Strait relations.
The department said the US should immediately take action to correct its mistakes, cancel the proposed arms sale and stop military links with Taiwan, which it noted was still Chinese territory.

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Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Report: Shows Gaps in U.S. Missile Defenses
Bill Gertz (Contact)

EXCLUSIVE:
The United States needs new weapon systems, including missile defenses and other advanced military capabilities, to deter and counter China's steady buildup of nuclear and conventional arms, according to a draft internal report by a State Department advisory board.

U.S. defense policy has stressed missile defenses against Iran and North Korea. The report, by the Secretary of State's International Security Advisory Board (ISAB), is the first to recommend such defenses against China, including technology in space.

The draft, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Times, said Chinese strategy goes beyond building forces capable of retaking the island of Taiwan. China seeks to "break out" by projecting power beyond its region including sea lanes that carry energy resources for its modernization, the document said.

"Using superior U.S. military technical capacities, the United States should undertake the development of new weapons, sensors, communications, and other programs and tactics to convince China that it will not be able to overcome the U.S. militarily," the report said.

• Read the report by the ISAB Task Force on China's Strategic Modernization (downloads PDF)

The draft report presents a tough assessment of Chinese strategic modernization that goes beyond many current government and private-sector analyses that say that China's military modernization does not pose a major challenge to U.S. security interests.

For example, in an interview with The Washington Times in March, CIA Director Michael V. Hayden expressed professional "admiration" for China's rapid and sophisticated buildup and said it is "not inevitable that they will be an enemy." The report said that to reduce the chance of a miscalculation by China that could lead to a crisis or conflict, the United States "must take seriously China's challenge to U.S. military superiority in the Asia-Pacific region. ... China's military modernization is proceeding at a rate ... to be of concern even with the most benign interpretation of China's motivation."

Chinese Embassy spokesman Wang Baodong said in a statement that China is "naturally becoming stronger and more influential in world affairs" after 30 years of reform, but remains committed to peaceful development and a "foreign policy of peace."

"China will not harm anyone or pose a threat to anyone. China's development is opportunity, not threat. Any versions of China threat will continue to be proved fallacious," he said.

Mr. Wang also said his government is "committed to the peaceful settlement of the Taiwan question and the peaceful reunification" of the island with the mainland.

The draft by the 17-member advisory board has not been officially released. A State Department official familiar with the report said it is in the late stages and could be completed in the next several weeks.

The official said the report's stark assessment of China's strategy and forces was in line with the board's mandate to provide frank advice to the secretary of state from analysts outside government.

Brandon A. Buttrick, the ISAB executive director, said his office did not know when members would complete their review. "If the report is an unclassified report, it will be made available for public distribution as we have done with the previous ISAB reports when they are approved by the ISAB," he said.

The board is headed by former Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz. The task force that produced the report was led by Robert Joseph, a former undersecretary of state and specialist on nonproliferation. The task force included former Sen. Charles S. Robb, Virginia Democrat; Allison B. Fortier, a vice president for missile defense at Lockheed Martin; and William Van Cleave, emeritus professor for defense and security studies at Missouri State University.

Mr. Robb said he initially took part but dropped out because of time constraints "notwithstanding my interest in the topic." He declined to comment further.

• Read the report by the ISAB Task Force on China's Strategic Modernization (downloads PDF)

Mr. Wolfowitz declined to be interviewed. Once the Bush administration's chief theorist on the war on terror and a major policymaker on the invasion of Iraq, Mr. Wolfowitz previously held numerous senior posts dealing with Asian affairs at both the State Department and Pentagon. He stepped down as World Bank president amid ethics inquiries in June.

The draft report said China's "major objective is to counter U.S. presence and U.S. military capabilities in East Asia through the acquisition of offensive capacities in critical functional areas that systematically exploit U.S. vulnerabilities." It said the buildup involves capabilities for "asymmetric warfare," such as space and computer weapons, that could help Chinese forces defeat a stronger U.S. military.

Among the areas of U.S. strategic vulnerability identified in the report are gaps in U.S. missile defenses; dependence on space for communications; the U.S. inability to use force against China except through aircraft carrier groups; and "fragile electronics and the Internet." The report recommends that the United States acquire new offensive space and cyber warfare capabilities and missile defenses as well as "more robust sea- and space-based capabilities" to deter any crisis over Taiwan.

China currently has about 20 missiles capable of reaching the United States but is projected to have more than 100 nuclear missiles, some likely with multiple warheads, by 2015, the report said.

Among the key findings:
• Continued rapid economic growth of 10 percent a year is "vital" for China to continue to compete with the United States and achieve its main goals of regime survival and regional dominance.

• China's industrial and defense espionage is aimed at obtaining advanced technology for economic and military modernization.

• The scale, scope and speed of China's rise fundamentally impacts U.S. national security, yet the U.S. "possesses only a limited understanding of Chinese intentions, and how Beijing's economic and military expansion affects these interests."

• China's military and civilian leaders are not always on the same page and that separation is a potential "focal point" for mitigating hostility. China's civilian leaders understand Americans but the Chinese military suffers from "clear paranoia and misperceptions" about U.S. intentions.

• To avoid an "emerging creep" by China toward strategic nuclear coercion, "the United States will need to pursue new missile defense capabilities, including taking full advantage of space," the report said.

On China's expansion after centuries as a regional power, the ISAB report stated that: "In China's view, Taiwan is the key to breakout: If China is to become a global power, the first step must include control of this island." Taking over the island would allow China to control the seas near its coasts and to project power eastward, the report said.

China views Taiwan, where nationalist forces fled from the mainland in 1949, as central to "the legitimacy of the regime and key to power projection," the report said. Taiwan also is seen by China as a way to deny the United States a key ally in "a highly strategic location" of the western Pacific, the report said.

Chinese authorities have said they desire peaceful reunification with Taiwan but will not allow it to declare formal independence and have not ruled out the use of force.

The advisory panel report also recommended that the U.S. increase sales of advanced conventional forces to allies in Asia and improve counterintelligence efforts.

Larry M. Wortzel, chairman of the congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, said he has not seen the report but that blocking Taiwan independence and gaining control of the island "is one of the highest priorities set for the People's Liberation Army by the Communist Party Politburo Standing Committee and the Central Military Commission." "If China accomplishes this, its military can concentrate on missions to expand China's presence, influence, and even control, in wider areas of the Asia-Pacific region," he said.

Mr. Wang, the Chinese Embassy spokesman, said China's budget for 2007 was $45 billion, or 1.4 percent of gross domestic product. He said this year's defense budget is $57.2 billion, an increase of 17.6 percent.

The United States spends about 4 percent of GDP on defense, according to the CIA World Factbook.

However, the Pentagon's latest annual report on China's military stated that China's military spending figures do not include spending on China's space program, strategic forces, foreign acquisitions, military-related research and development and paramilitary forces.

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Friday, October 3, 2008
Taiwan Arms Sales: A New Phase Begins



After a long delay and marking a symbolic end to six years of political wrangling, senior Bush administration officials on October 3, 2008 authorized the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) to forward Congressional notifications on six Taiwan programs. Two other programs awaiting notification - diesel electric submarine design and UH-60 utility helicopters - were held in abeyance. The programs, with a value of up to U.S. $6.5 billion, which were notified are:

• PATRIOT PAC-3 missiles and fire units (see announcement here)
• AH-64D APACHE attack helicopters (see announcement here)
• Upgrade of E-2T Airborne Early Warning Aircraft (see announcement here)
• Submarine-Launched UGL-84L HARPOON Block 2 missiles (see announcement here)
• Spare parts for ROC Air Force aircraft (see announcement here)
• Javelin Missiles (see announcement here)

Media and Other Responses
While lauding the decision, the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council published a sharp criticism of the Bush administration's management of the Congressional notifications over the last 10 months:

The impasse over arms sales has done immeasurable damage to the U.S.-Taiwan relationship over the past several years, and these Congressional Notifications - while very late and incomplete - are an important and positive step forward in US-Taiwan relations. However, it has taken over 10 months for the notifications to accumulate - an unprecedented action irrespective of Bush Administration claims that this was part of a normal inter-agency process. There is simply no existing example of notifications being stacked in such a manner. We face a similar situation in the Bush Administration's refusal to accept an LOR for F-16s - itself unprecedented in a security relationship between the U.S. and a non-NATO ally.

Other reporting was generally positive and accurate with some exceptions. Today's Nelson Report provided a synapsis of today's decision, as well as a skewed critique of the submarine issue and some interesting remarks from Gregg Rubinstein. With regard to the submarines, Chris Nelson opines:

Left off are the conventionally powered submarines, a controversial, hugely expensive notion, one quite openly opposed right from the start, in 2001, by many in the US defense and strategic community on substantive grounds. As a friend put it today, "we don't make the damn things, so it was silly to offer them, since it would take at least a decade to get even one delivered...and that's assuming they made tactical sense, which they don't. We recognize others may disagree with the assessment, but note that even proponents agreed the cost of the submarines would likely be prohibitive, and that the money (something like half of the original package total cost) could certainly be better spent on immediately needed, and immediately deployable defensive armaments.

A detailed response can wait, but two points are important to make:

1. First, the Bush administration's decision in April 2001 marked a shift in policy regarding Taiwan's 40 year quest for a viable submarine force. Reporting has indicated that the decision was based on two military assessments, both conducted under the Clinton administration, which validated Taiwan's operational requirement for submarines as part of an integrated ASW architecture. The kind of opposition that Chris notes would have been based on reasons other than Taiwan's own self-defense needs (e.g., complicating U.S. military operations in the area or export control concerns), and not the Taiwan Relations Act. The Taiwan Relations Act is clear - decisions are to be based on military judgments of Taiwan's requirements alone. Bottom line is that Taiwan's operational requirement doesn't differ much from Singapore, Malaysia, Israel, Indonesia, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Sweden, and the dozens of other navies that own and operate diesel electric submarines.

2. Secondly, it may be an overly simplistic belief that the Bush administration "offered" submarines or agreed to "sell" submarines to Taiwan. In April 2001, the Bush administration agreed to assist Taiwan in its acquisition of diesel electric submarines. These words were nuanced but important. The U.S. left it open on how to satisfy Taiwan's requirement. Decision makers were well aware that the United States did not manufacture diesel electric submarines for use by the U.S. Navy. Observers note that the program had intended to be a cooperative defense industrial effort, and kept out of Foreign Military Sales (FMS) channels. Taiwan was to assume responsibility for acquisition and the U.S. would be in the assist mode through normal, routine review of export licenses. However, all this changed when the program, at Taiwan's request, was shifted to FMS channels and it's been a struggle ever since.

In the Nelson Report's coverage of the debate between Bill Murray and Harvey Feldman, Chris added a new, admirable perspective by Gregg Rubinstein, a former State and Defense official:

The [Murray] article has some excellent points, though some seem to use its arguments selectively to further confuse what amounts to an improvised, knee-jerk approach to Taiwan defense matters. While Murray is specific in many areas, we are still left without a clear definition of offensive weapons. Arguments on what Taiwan should have typically bog down because of this lack of consensus on what constitutes "weapons of an offensive character." For example, does this mean weapons that cannot reach China? Though simplistic, even this guideline might do if it reflected some serious thinking about Taiwan. But it doesn't.

Equipment is not the real issue here; it is lack of strategic policy. Good policy backed with a proper mix of defense planning and relevant transfers would enable Taiwan to dissuade China, something surely in US interest. The problem is that the US has not made a real effort to build up both a strategic dialogue and a capabilities assessment that evaluates needs in terms of perceived threat. The mechanisms to do so exist, but are useless without guidance from empowered decision makers. The substantive competence and morale courage to act within the legal framework of US- Taiwan relations has been lost in the fog of our preoccupation with China -- while China continues to build up its military leverage against Taiwan.

Gregg's got it right on a number of accounts, especially his point about what seems to be the lack of a strategic perspective regarding Taiwan. Decisions seem to reflect a tactical expediency. In addition to the Nelson Report, the Associated Press, CNN, Financial Times, BBC, AFP, and Washington Post all covered the release.

China's Possible Responses
How or if the PRC would respond to the announcements remain uncertain. It may only be coincidental that Chris Hill, as reported in the New York Times, just wrapped up three days of inconclusive talks in Pyongyong in a "last ditch effort" to head off North Korean action to restart its nuclear weapons program. Beyond this, John Pomfret of the Washington Post provided some interesting insights today in his blog, Pomfret's China. He highlights the signaling that may be going on, sending a message to China that the continued expansion of China's military capabilities arrayed against Taiwan carries a cost. He also notes that China may be less offended by the omission of the UH-60s and submarines in the series of notifications (the additional fire units were indeed covered in the DSCA announcement). If this indeed is one line of thinking within the administration, it may be faulty. Beijing strongly opposes any arms sales to Taiwan, and the larger and more public a particular package is, the stronger the potential response. The difference between a $6 billion package and an $11 billion may be significant in real terms, but it likely wouldn't make much of a difference to Beijing.

Beijing's track record in responding to major arms sales decisions is difficult to assess. However, responses in the past appear to have included negative proliferation behavior, withdrawal of support for issues that the U.S. has deemed important, as well as imposing penalties on U.S. commercial interests.

Boeing As a Target?

It's fairly well known that U.S. defense companies, such as Lockheed, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman have been blacklisted, or at least punished, for supporting the U.S. government in providing defense articles and services (see reporting by Wendell Minnick in Defense News from May 2008 on this issue). Much of the lost business has been in the air traffic control arena, which is a relatively minor part of these companies' overall business. However, for Boeing, it's different because its business line is more evenly divided between commercial and defense, and it's a safe bet that Beijing has been putting the squeeze on the Chicago-based company. The PRC has been known to shift business back and forth between France's Airbus and one of America's largest exporters, Boeing, depending on the political winds.


Media reporting indicates that Boeing signed a $6 billion plus agreement in July 2008 for the possible sale of 45 Boeing 777 and 737 aircraft to Air China, the PRC's flagship airline. The deal, with a potential price tag of up to $6.3 billion and one of the largest deals to date that would expand Air China's fleet by 45%, was sealed after the visit of Boeing CEO Jim McNerney (and Yale colleague of President Bush) to Beijing in June. Given the company's labor problems and falling stock value, and penchant for playing hardball with U.S. companies that should be immune from politics, it wouldn't be uncharacteristic of China to take its anger out on Boeing. Just something to watch....

The Road Ahead
With the deck cleared on the Bush administration's April 2001 package (with the exception of subs), the next administration start with a clean slate. A Taipei Times editorial today offered a useful perspective:

The importance of the effort to unfreeze the arms deal cannot be understated as far as US foreign policy is concerned. As a number of analysts have suggested, leaving the problem to next year would have left both a Republican and Democratic president with an unnecessary burden. Starting a term as US president by releasing arms to Taiwan would be far more damaging to US-China ties than releasing them in the dying days of the current presidential term. The release of arms also lets the next president craft a China policy relatively unsullied by the ham-fisted behavior of everyone involved in recent years.

That said, what to do with the remaining two programs -- submarine design and the UH-60 Blackhawks -- on the table? Taiwan is faced with a few options, the first being to wait and see if a second set of notifications could be forthcoming in December or before the end of the Bush administration. Another option could be to initiate planning for the acquisition of these two systems through direct commercial sales channels or industrial cooperation.

Another option, specifically with regards to the submarines, could be to give up. Given the severity of the ROC Navy's Lafayette Syndrome and general distaste for relying on domestic industry, the Navy may indeed forego its 40 year quest for a full 10-12 boat diesel electric submarine fleet if given a choice between a domestic program or no submarines at all.

Regardless, for the programs that have finally been notified, the ROC Ministry of National Defense now will be in a race with the clock to review draft DoD letters of offer and acceptance (LOAs), get them signed, and then allocate funding before the end of the year. However, draft LOAs will have to wait until 30 days pass with no Congressional comment on the notifications.

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Arms Deal to Taiwan Riles China

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By THOM SHANKER
Published: October 4, 2008

WASHINGTON — An announcement that the United States would sell more than $6 billion in advanced weapons to Taiwan elicited strong reactions from leaders in China on Saturday, with officials in Beijing issuing denunciations and warnings that the weapons deal could worsen relations.

The Pentagon’s Defense Security Cooperation Agency said in a news release on Friday that it had notified Congress about the proposed arms sales. A State Department spokesman said that Congress had 30 days to raise any objections to the plan.

Among the weapons proposed for sale were $3.1 billion in Patriot Advanced Capability-3 guided missile systems, a sophisticated array of missiles, radars and control systems designed to defend against missiles and aircraft.
Also included in the proposed deal were $2.5 billion worth of Apache attack helicopters and support systems.

About $250 million in equipment to upgrade Taiwan’s E-2T Hawkeye surveillance aircraft was included, and $200 million in Harpoon antiship missiles.

The proposal also included more than $300 million in spare parts for Taiwanese aircraft, including F-5 and F-16 jet fighters.

Completing the package was a proposal for selling Taiwan $47 million in Javelin guided missiles and command systems.

On Saturday, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Liu Jianchao, was quoted in wire service reports from Beijing saying the government strongly opposed the deal and warning that it could damage ties between Beijing and Washington if it went through.

A senior officer from the American Embassy in Beijing was summoned by Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei, who issued a protest, according to the official news agency, Xinhua.

And from Taiwan, a government spokesman expressed appreciation to the United States and stressed that the leadership in Taipei wanted to maintain a strong defense while striving to improve relations with China.

“President Ma Ying-jeou would like to express gratitude to the U.S. for the arms package,” the Taiwanese spokesman said. “A strong defense and peace in the Taiwan Strait are necessary for Taiwan’s prosperity.”

United States foreign policy recognizes only one China, with its capital in Beijing, but stresses that reunification with Taiwan, which split from the mainland in 1949, must be achieved through negotiations. Washington has pledged to support Taiwan in any unprovoked attack from China.

China considers Taiwan a renegade province and has threatened military action should the island try to attain permanent independence.

The weapons package originally was proposed in 2001, the first year of the Bush administration, but had been delayed by budget squabbles in Taiwan and political concerns in Washington.

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Taiwan arms deal sours U.S.-China relations

In a foreign military sales program, the US has sold Taiwan $18.3 billion worth of weapons between 1950 and 2006.

By Jonathan Adams

posted October 06, 2008 at 10:00 am EDT

Washington's approval of nearly $6.5 billion in arms sales to Taiwan Friday drew a relieved "thank you" from the self-governed island nation, but sharp rebukes from Beijing.

The Bush administration on Friday notified Congress of the deal, after an unusually long delay that had led some to question the strength of the US security commitment to Taiwan.

Taiwan has not yet purchased the weapons. But a Congressional notification is the point in the arms sales process that triggers a storm of official Chinese diplomatic protests, said Mark Stokes, a former top Pentagon official dealing with China and Taiwan, in a talk to the Taiwan Foreign Correspondents Club earlier this year.

China typically summons top US diplomats in Beijing and elsewhere for a sharp dressing-down immediately after such notifications, Mr. Stokes said.

According to Xinhua, China's state-controlled news agency, the foreign ministry this time summoned the US embassy's charge d'affaires in Beijing.

The report cited a statement on China's foreign ministry website.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao said the Chinese government and people firmly opposed this action which seriously damaged China's interests and the Sino-US relations. ...

"It is only natural that this move would stir up strong indignation of the Chinese government and people," he said.

Meanwhile, the Associated Press (AP) reported that Taipei welcomed the news. Taiwan's president, Ma Ying-jeou, took power in May on a platform of improved commercial ties with China. But he also wants to maintain a robust defense in order to counter China's military buildup across the Taiwan Strait.

On Saturday, Taiwan's Presidential Office spokesman Wang Yu-chi thanked the U.S. and said the government wants to maintain a strong defense against any threat from China while seeking improvement in cross-strait relations.

"President Ma Ying-jeou would like to express gratitude to the U.S. for the arms package," said Wang. "A strong defense and peace in the Taiwan Strait are necessary for Taiwan's prosperity."

China views Taiwan as rebel territory and vehemently opposes any US arms sales to the island. The US is bound by domestic law to make available to Taiwan sufficient weapons for its self-defense.

Further complicating the issue, Taiwanese themselves cannot agree on the nature and extent of the threat from China. Their bickering held up Taipei's arms request for several years, amid legislative gridlock.

Some of the arms approved for sale Friday were initially offered by the Bush administration in 2001. Taiwan purchased and received several of those systems, notably four Kidd-class destroyers.

The approved weapons are only about half of what Taiwan requested, in dollar terms.

Washington gave the green light Friday to sales of Apache attack helicopters, Patriot missile batteries and other air defense systems, and fighter jet spare parts. But it reduced the number of Patriot batteries and missiles offered, and continues to sit on a request for Black Hawk helicopters and a submarine feasibility study.

The US also continues to ignore a separate request by Taiwan for 66 advanced F-16 fighter jets. Security analysts say Taiwan urgently needs those jets in order to maintain a balance of air power over the Taiwan Strait. One such analyst was quoted by Singapore's Straits Times in July:

Professor Lin Chong-pin of Tamkang University, who was formerly Taiwan's vice-defence minister, told The Straits Times that with the rapid modernisation of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA), 'Taiwan's last remaining edge in air supremacy would be gone if the F-16s are not coming'.

The weapons cleared for sale Friday represent a massive layout, even if they fell short of Taiwan's wish list. Citing US government statistics, Bloomberg noted that Taiwan received $18.3 billion in weapons under the US Foreign Military Sales program in the entire period of 1950 to 2006.

The arms deal is likely to draw far more attention in China than in the US. Last year, a survey on public attitudes toward US-China relations found that Taiwan was the No. 1 concern for the Chinese public. For Americans, however, the top worry was job losses to China – showing the gap in priorities and perceptions between the two big powers.

Chinese Communist Party propaganda has reinforced popular sentiment that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China that must one day be returned to the "motherland," by force if need be. That reunification is seen as a last bit of unfinished business in China's transformation from humiliated victim of colonial predations to global power.

Meanwhile, Taiwan continues to consolidate its young democracy under the shadow of China's military threat. Numerous polls, including those published by the Election Study Center at Taipei's National Chengchi University show that a solid majority of Taiwanese want to maintain the island's political autonomy.

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/1006/p99s01-duts.html

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October 6th, 2008
China to retaliate for weapons sale to Taiwan, official says
Posted: 03:57 PM ET

WASHINGTON (CNN) –China is going to “cut off a number of military to militaries activities with the U.S” in reaction to last week’s U.S. announcement of weapons sales to Taiwan, a senior U.S. official told CNN Monday.

The Chinese ambassador was said to be on his way to the State Department Monday afternoon to protest the proposed weapons sales, worth $6.4 billion, which must get congressional approval.

A number of programs could be affected by the Chinese action and visits by senior military officials to both countries could be cut off, the U.S. official said.

The tension with China, the official added, will not affect the role China is playing in negotiations with Iran or North Korea over its nuclear program.

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China protests US-Taiwan deal by cancelling contacts

Tue, 07 Oct 2008 8:57a.m.
China has abruptly cancelled a series of military and diplomatic contacts with the United States to protest a planned US$6.5 billion package of US arms sale to Taiwan, American officials told The Associated Press.

Beijing has notified the US that it will not go forward with several senior level visits and other cooperative military-to-military plans, said Marine Major Stewart Upton, a Defence Department spokesman.

"In response to Friday's announcement of Taiwan arms sales, the People's Republic of China cancelled or postponed several upcoming military-to-military exchanges," Upton said, lamenting that "China's continued politicisation of our military relationship results in missed opportunities."

The Chinese action will not affect the country's participation with the United States in six-nation talks aimed at getting North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons or its participation in the international effort on Iran's nuclear program, US officials said.

But it does include the cancellation of an upcoming US visit by a senior Chinese general, other similar trips, several port calls by naval vessels and the indefinite postponement of meetings on stopping the spread of weapons of mass destruction, the officials said.

"It's an unfortunate step," said deputy State Department spokesman Robert Wood.

Beijing is furious with the US decision to sell Taiwan the huge US$6.5 billion package of advanced weaponry and military items, including guided missiles and attack helicopters. China, which regards Taiwan as a renegade province, says the sale interferes with internal Chinese affairs and harms its national security.

"The Chinese government and the Chinese people strongly oppose and object to the U.S. government's actions, which harm Chinese interests and Sino-US relations," its foreign ministry said in a statement Saturday, adding that US diplomats had been summoned to hear a strong protest.

China's Ambassador to the United States, Zhou Wenzhong, was expected to register a similar protest about the arms sale on Monday with the State Department. A Chinese Embassy spokesman in Washington said it would be "only natural" for the ambassador to lodge the protest.

Upton said the sale does not represent a change in U.S. policy and that Washington is only upholding the provisions of the Taiwan Relations Act under which the US makes available items necessary for Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self defence.

Taiwan relies on US weapons to keep pace with China's massive arms buildup across the Taiwan Strait. US arms sales to Taiwan are a crucial matter because any dispute between China and Taiwan could ensnare the United States.

Washington is Taiwan's most important ally and largest arms supplier.

The U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency announced Friday that it had notified the US Congress of plans to sell up to US$6.5 billion in advanced weaponry to Taiwan. Under procedures for such foreign military sales, the deal would proceed if no lawmaker voices an objection within 30 days of the notification.

Beijing claims Taiwan as its own territory and has threatened to invade should the self-governing island ever formalise its de facto independence.

http://www.3news.co.nz/News/China-pr...rticleID=74728

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China Warns of Consequences for US Weapons Sales to Taiwan
By Daniel Schearf Beijing 07 October 2008

China has warned that a U.S. decision to sell weapons to Taiwan will harm Washington's relations with Beijing. Daniel Schearf reports from Beijing.

Taiwanese military maneuver US-made M60 battle tanks during annual Han Kuang military exercises in Hsinchu, northwestern Taiwan (2007 file photo)

China's Foreign Ministry condemned U.S. plans to sell a package of military weapons to Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own.

The Pentagon last week approved a multibillion-dollar sale of missiles, helicopters, and other military equipment to Taipei.

U.S. and Taiwan legislators have yet to approve the deal, but Chinese officials were quick to condemn it.

Qin Gang talks to reporters in Beijing, 07 Oct 2008

Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang says the move threatens China's security and will gravely undermine U.S.-China relations. He warns there will be consequences.

He says the U.S. action has created obstacles for not only military exchanges, but every field of U.S.-China cooperation.

The Pentagon says China has already canceled or postponed some scheduled military and diplomatic exchanges.

China has hundreds of missiles aimed at Taiwan and has vowed to one day reunite the island with the mainland, by force if necessary. The two split politically when Communist forces won China's civil war in 1949 and nationalist forces fled to Taiwan.

Under U.S. law, the government is allowed to sell military weapons to Taiwan. The Pentagon says the planned deal complies with that law.

Qin accuses the United States of upsetting peace in the region.

He says China's development is peaceful and does not pose a threat to any other countries. He says it is the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan that disturbs the peaceful development of cross-straits relations and undermines peace and stability across the strait.

http://www.voanews.com/english/2008-10-07-voa17.cfm

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US-Taiwan arms plan highlights tensions with China

Spokesman for China's foreign ministry said the US move would cast a shadow over bilateral relations

Simon Tisdall in Washington guardian.co.uk

Tuesday October 07 2008 17:12 BST
Article history

China cancelled a visit to Washington by a senior general, slapped an indefinite ban on port calls by US naval vessels, and cancelled low-level diplomatic exchanges with the US today, in angry retaliation to a US plan to sell $6.5bn in advanced weaponry to Taiwan.

A spokesman for China's foreign ministry in Beijing, Qin Gang, said the US move broke international law and would cast a shadow over bilateral relations. The proposed sale "has contaminated the sound atmosphere for our military relations and gravely jeopardised China's national security", Qin said.

China regards Taiwan, which has enjoyed de facto independence since 1949, as a renegade province. But its aim to unify the island with the mainland is opposed by a majority of Taiwanese. Under a 1979 law, the US in effect pledged to help Taiwan defend itself against any attempt by China to forcibly acquire the territory.

A Pentagon spokesman described China's reaction to the sale as "unfortunate" and said it would lead to missed opportunities. But both sides appeared to be anxious to limit the fallout from the row. US-China cooperation on nuclear proliferation issues in Iran and North Korea was not expected to be affected.

The arms sale was first proposed by the US in 2001 but ran into opposition in Taiwan's parliament, the Legislative Yuan, as well as in Beijing. It was initially valued at $12bn and potentially included Aegis-class frigates, submarines and advanced F16 fighter jets.

The current package is much less ambitious, consisting of defensive weapons systems. It includes 330 Patriot ground-to-air missiles, 30 Apache helicopters, 182 Javelin anti-tank missiles and spare parts for Taiwan's existing fleet of F16 fighters. The Pentagon also announced a sale of Harpoon missiles last month.

China has rapidly expanded its overall military spending in recent years and has deployed an estimated 1,000 missiles across the strategic Taiwan Strait, facing Taiwan.

Prickly US relations with Taiwan have eased since the election as president last March of the nationalist Kuomintang party (KMT) leader and former Taipei mayor, Ma Ying-jeou.

Ma's predecessor as president, the Democratic Progressive party's (DPP) Chen Shui-bian, angered Washington and Beijing by pushing what both saw as a destabilising pro-independence agenda. That may have led to an undeclared freeze on new arms sales.

Ma has taken a series of steps to improve cross-straits relations since taking office, including direct charter flights for businesspeople and tourists, a lifting of caps on Taiwanese investment in China, and the opening of permanent representative offices in both countries.

Taiwan also provided assistance to China during last May's Sichuan earthquake disaster.

As a result of the thaw, Chen Yun-lin, the top official in charge of China's Taiwan policy, is expected to visit the island soon. If it takes place, it will be the highest-level contact since 1949.

All the same, Ma's popularity has been falling amid DPP criticism that he was kow-towing to China and failing to obtain reciprocal concessions. His decision to risk China's displeasure and go ahead with the arms purchase may help him counter perceptions of undue servility towards the mainland.

"We think this announcement from the US government is a sign that the past eight years of discord are over," Ma said in a statement.

According to a report last month by the Congressional Research Service (CRS), a US decision on the sale had been expected before the Bush administration leaves office in January.

Defence analysts suggested the White House wanted to push the deal through now rather than leave the decision to the incoming, possibly Democratic administration.

Embroiled in major conflicts in the Middle East, Washington has been keen to defuse cross-straits tensions and persuade the Taiwanese to take more responsibility for their own defence.

Yet now this appears to be happening, there are signs of second thoughts. According to the CRS report, a closer relationship between China and Taiwan "may complicate US regional interests".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/07/china.usa

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China envoy: US should stop Taiwan arms sales

October 8, 2008 05:36 PM EST |

WASHINGTON — China's top diplomat in the United States says Washington's approval of a multibillion-dollar arms package for Taiwan is a "gross violation" of U.S. commitments to Beijing.

Chinese Ambassador Zhou Wenzhong said in a speech Wednesday that the United States should abide by previous promises to reduce the sales of weapons to Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as its territory.

Zhou bluntly urged the U.S. to stop selling weapons to Taiwan and to allow Beijing and Taipei to work out their differences.

China is angry over the Bush administration's approval of a $6.5 billion package of weapons to help the island defend itself should China ever make good on its vow to invade if Taiwan should formalize its de facto independence.

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U.S. presidential candidate welcomes arms sales to Taiwan
Central News Agency
2008-10-09 05:50 PM

U.S. Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama said Wednesday he welcomes the Bush administration's decision to notify Congress of a package of weapon systems for Taiwan. In a statement issued by his national security spokesperson Wendy Morigi, Obama said he looks forward to fully reviewing the notifications and the accompanying justification of the Department of Defense.

"This package represents an important response to Taiwan's defense needs. This action is fully consistent with U.S. obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act," Obama said.

The Pentagon's Defense Cooperation Security Agency on Oct. 3 notified Congress that it had approved the sale of a package of weapons to Taiwan, including 30 Apache attack helicopters, 330 advanced capability Patriot (PAC-3) missiles, 32 Harpoon sub-launched missiles, 182 guided Javelin missile rounds, and four E-2T system upgrades.

The move drew strong protest from China, which has suspended military-to-military exchanges and nonproliferation talks with the United States.

Expressing regret over China's decision, Obama said the discussions should be resumed because they are in the interest of both sides.

Obama said he strongly supports the reduction of tensions between China and Taiwan and he commended Chinese President Hu Jintao and Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou for their efforts in that regard.

"A strengthening of Taiwan's defenses will not undermine the process of reduction of tensions and can actually promote it, " the statement read.

Obama's statement came one day after his Republican opponent, Senator John McCain, said that U.S. White House did not go far enough when it agreed to the items in the arms package.

"The package will not include submarines or new F-16 aircraft, McCain said. "I urge the administration to reconsider this decision, in light of its previous commitment to provide submarines and America's previous sales of F-16s."

Also in his statement, McCain said the U.S. government should continue to sell defensive weapons to Taiwan in the future and stand by the Taiwan people.

"American interests in Asia are well-served through faithful implementation of the Taiwan Relations Act, and if I am fortunate enough to be elected president, I will continue the longstanding and close ties between our peoples," McCain said.

http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_....php?id=759379

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US trying to block Taiwan missiles: ‘Defense News’

By Richard Hazeldine
STAFF REPORTER
Wednesday, Oct 29, 2008, Page 1

Washington is blocking the delivery of crucial parts Taiwan needs to produce its home-grown cruise missiles — a vital part of the nation’s armory that could help repel an invasion by China — in what a former US defense official said was a bid to placate China, the latest edition of Defense News said.

The story said the US State Department has refused for more than a year to release parts to the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology — the military-run research organization that develops the nation’s weapons — in the hope that this will block production of the Hsiung Feng (Brave Wind) II-E land-attack cruise missile.

Taiwanese officials have met with their US counterparts twice to try to remedy the situation, but to no avail, Defense News said.

Problems have arisen because the missile, which is capable of striking many of China’s larger cities, is classified by the US State Department as an “offensive weapon” and therefore not covered by the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), which only allows for US provision of weapons of a defensive nature.

Washington has been under pressure from China to put a halt to the missile project, according to sources quoted in the story.

“If China barks, the State Department jumps,” one former official was quoted as saying.

The news comes immediately after reports on Monday that President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) recently ordered the production of 300 Hsiung Feng missiles. The Ministry of National Defense refused to confirm this.

If the US ban is confirmed, the production plans for the 300 missiles appear to be in jeopardy.

Michael Wang (王高成), director of the Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies at Tamkang University, said: “If the story is true, it would fit with the US’ current China policy.”

The US wants to avoid any escalation in the cross-strait relationship, Wang added, which would be consistent with its TRA commitments.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/fron.../29/2003427218