Powerful Solar Storm Could Shut Down U.S. for Months

[vector7]

Powerful Solar Storm Could Shut Down U.S. for Months
Friday, January 09, 2009
By Robert Roy Britt


NASA

Solar storms can cause colorful auroras, often seen in higher latitudes on Earth.

A new study from the National Academy of Sciences outlines grim possibilities on Earth for a worst-case scenario solar storm.

Damage to power grids and other communications systems could be catastrophic, the scientists conclude, with effects leading to a potential loss of governmental control of the situation.

The prediction is based in part on a major solar storm in 1859 that caused telegraph wires to short out in the United States and Europe, igniting widespread fires.

It was perhaps the worst in the past 200 years, according to the new study, and with the advent of modern power grids and satellites, much more is at risk.

"A contemporary repetition of the [1859] event would cause significantly more extensive (and possibly catastrophic) social and economic disruptions," the researchers conclude.

• Click here to visit FOXNews.com's Space Center.

'Command and control might be lost'

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When the sun is in the active phase of its 11-year cycle, it can unleash powerful magnetic storms that disable satellites, threaten astronaut safety, and even disrupt communication systems on Earth.

The worst storms can knock out power grids by inducing currents that melt transformers.

Modern power grids are so interconnected that a big space storm — the type expected to occur about once a century — could cause a cascade of failures that would sweep across the United States, cutting power to 130 million people or more in this country alone, the new report concludes.

Such widespread power outages, though expected to be a rare possibility, would affect other vital systems.

"Impacts would be felt on interdependent infrastructures with, for example, potable water distribution affected within several hours; perishable foods and medications lost in 12-24 hours; immediate or eventual loss of heating/air conditioning, sewage disposal, phone service, transportation, fuel resupply and so on," the report states.

Outages could take months to fix, the researchers say. Banks might close, and trade with other countries might halt.

"Emergency services would be strained, and command and control might be lost," write the researchers, led by Daniel Baker, director of the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics at the University of Colorado in Boulder.

"Whether it is terrestrial catastrophes or extreme space weather incidents, the results can be devastating to modern societies that depend in a myriad of ways on advanced technological systems," Baker said in a statement released with the report.

Stormy past
Solar storms have had significant effects in modern time:

— In 1989, the sun unleashed a tempest that knocked out power to all of Quebec, Canada.

— A remarkable 2003 rampage included 10 major solar flares over a two-week period, knocking out two Earth-orbiting satellites and crippling an instrument aboard a Mars orbiter.

"Obviously, the sun is Earth's life blood," said Richard Fisher, director of the Heliophysics division at NASA. "To mitigate possible public safety issues, it is vital that we better understand extreme space weather events caused by the sun's activity."

"Space weather can produce solar storm electromagnetic fields that induce extreme currents in wires, disrupting power lines, causing wide-spread blackouts and affecting communication cables that support the Internet," the report states. "Severe space weather also produces solar energetic particles and the dislocation of the Earth's radiation belts, which can damage satellites used for commercial communications, global positioning and weather forecasting."

Rush to prepare
The race is on for better forecasting abilities, as the next peak in solar activity is expected to come around 2012.

While the sun is in a lull now, activity can flare up at any moment, and severe space weather — how severe, nobody knows — will ramp up a year or two before the peak.

Some scientists expect the next peak to bring more severe events than other recent peaks.

"A catastrophic failure of commercial and government infrastructure in space and on the ground can be mitigated through raising public awareness, improving vulnerable infrastructure and developing advanced forecasting capabilities," the report states. "Without preventive actions or plans, the trend of increased dependency on modern space-weather sensitive assets could make society more vulnerable in the future."

The report was commissioned and funded by NASA. Experts from around the world in industry, government and academia participated. It was released this week.

Copyright © 2009 Imaginova Corp. All Rights Reserved.

[American Patriot]

Actually, this article is wrong on the first part of the title.

It's not "months", it is "YEARS".

We do not have enough transformers in place as spares to replace those that will be blown in an overload of the sort such a storm will cause.

On the bright side, I don't think we can expect such a thing to occur across the country, but only regionally.

[Malsua]

Also, the damage will be worse depending on latitude. Further north, the damage will be worse.

[samizdat]

A natural emp, like the walls of the Red sea or river Jordan?

[American Patriot]

Also, the damage will be worse depending on latitude. Further north, the damage will be worse.

Just Curious.... how did you come to that conclusion Mal?

[Malsua]

The energy is channeled along the magnetic field northward. Ever hear about a solar storm disrupting electricity in Panama? Can you say the same about Quebec, Nova Scotia or Anchorage?

[American Patriot]

The energy is channeled along the magnetic field northward. Ever hear about a solar storm disrupting electricity in Panama? Can you say the same about Quebec, Nova Scotia or Anchorage?

True.... however, if you look carefully at the Earth's field the energy is (as you said) channeled northward, BUT around the Earth.

I'm not sure it's anything more than a random hit

[Malsua]

The magnetic field is not as strong at either pole either. I'm not saying that it's impossible to have damage at a low latitude...what I am saying is that all things equal, the higher the latitude of a hit, the worse the damage will be.

[American Patriot]

The magnetic field is not as strong at either pole either. I'm not saying that it's impossible to have damage at a low latitude...what I am saying is that all things equal, the higher the latitude of a hit, the worse the damage will be.

Have to disagree here.

It isn't about latitude. Certainly the "Van Allen Radiation Belts" exist and they exist because of our magnetic field.

A Coronal Mass Ejection is a mass of plasma contained in a magnetic field - basically a loop of rotating magnetic field that is leaving the sun.

When it passes through the Earths magnetic field, both fields are warped severely.

The physical hit location of the CME and the differences in the field will have an ultimate outcome on the location the CME hits Earth.

It won't be directed to higher latitudes, instead it will hit where ever the field is weakened enough to allow it through. That can be anywhere.

Damage that occurs will not occur on the ground as much as in space.

Satellites will take the brunt of the damage.

Next will be electrical grid systems, where the massive magnetic pulse will cut across wires - large numbers of wires, inducing a massive spike in all of them, IN PHASE and blasting transformers, and lower powered equipment into burned out hunks of junk.

The location of the GRID system will determine the damage, rather than the latitude.

The equator has as much of a chance/probability of being hit and damaged as does Detroit, Michigan or Toronto Canada. That's just a fact.

On top of all this the - you made a mistatement upon which you're basing a false premise. The Earth's magnetic field is STRONGEST at the poles, just like any magnet is.

The Earth just HAPPENS to have it's poles at the top and bottom of the sphere and the magnetic poles are "close" as far as that goes. Since no one knows exactly what causes the magnetic field anyway, the point is rather moot about the field.

The field CAN be affected and even REVERSED by a powerful magnetic storm. However - the physical NORTH and SOUTH poles will simply reverse directions. The magnetic north will now be in the southern hemisphere and the magnetic south in the north.

Just repaint your compasses and things will still be good....

[Malsua]

CME of large enough mass will slam into the surface no matter what. Everything else goes north, accumulates and impacts electrical systems. Satellites are screwed. Next solar storm, let's take note of the geographical region most affected.

[American Patriot]

You are missing the point. You're misstating some facts. Man, I hate when people gloss over things.

The poles are the strongest point of the earth's field.

Something else you're missing is what the season happens to be, when the storm started, and when it hits the planet.

But... ok, whatever, you take note of that, lemme know how it turns out for you....

[American Patriot]

According to JPL North America is MOST affected by solar storms - because we have the highest number of power grids, those grids extend into the higher latitudes (like you were pointing out) and because we live closer to the north magnetic pole.

The fact is, it's got nothing to do with lack of protection - it has to do with the fact that the magnetic fields are strongest there.

When a CME hits, as I already explained the fields buck one another and cause massive changes in each other. Those fields move down and ACROSS wires.

When you move a wire in a magnetic field (or a field over a wire) you induce currents.

The CME can hit anywhere and the CME in COMBINATION with the Earth's field induces currents into those wires - large spikes of energy which in turn will take out electronics, transformers and do all sorts of damage.

So - my point is you were wrong in assuming that the poles are less protected, that the poles have the weakest fields or even that the energy is "channeled northward".

NONE of those things are correct.

Damage isn't caused directly by CMEs and life forms generally are not at risk from a CME strike.

What IS at risk are sensitive electronics that are not shielded from proton and electron radiation accompanying a CME or our electrical grids which can't be shielded from a massive flux field generated when the Earths magnetic field and the a chunk of the sun's magnetic field twist and gyrate out of control and across the power grid.

That North America or higher latitudes are more "damaged" is certainly true, but ONLY because the NORTHERN HEMISPHERE is FULL of electrical grids and 80% of the land mass on the planet is north of the equator.

[American Patriot]

http://personals.galaxyinternet.net/tunga/SSTA.pdf
http://solar.physics.montana.edu/pre...31099-idx.html
http://www.newsflash.org/2003/05/si/si001680.htm
http://www-istp.gsfc.nasa.gov/exhibit/affect.html

[American Patriot]

Let me explain something, very simply for everyone here.

Magnetic storms are very similar in effects to an electromagnetic pulse.

There are some differences, the EMP is a short burst, extremely high energy EM wave front that will cut across electrical components and impart a massive spike of voltage into electronics.

A CME/Solar storm is slower moving, longer lasting and isn't a pulse of short duration and while it can last HOURS the damage to small devices on the planet doesn't come from emp. It comes from stuff being plugged into the power grid and taking an electrical spike, NOT unlike a lightning strike on the power grid.

The difference is, lightning strikes once.

Changing magnetic fields can last for HOURS.

The worst case scenario is the loss of multiple space-based electronics platforms like GPS, communications satellites and so forth.

Ground equipment CAN be easily protected from this - so the article as it is written, is really nothing but a lot of 'what if stuff' that started this thread.

I'm not saying a big CME can't cause severe damage, it just isn't going to take down the planet for ever and ever.

IF power grids aren't protected properly (which they aren't) THAT is where the most damage might occur. The loss of irreplaceable transformers (it'll take YEARS to rebuild entire grid networks!)

[samizdat]

1. The field CAN be affected and even REVERSED by a powerful magnetic storm. However - the physical NORTH and SOUTH poles will simply reverse directions. The magnetic north will now be in the southern hemisphere and the magnetic south in the north.

Just repaint your compasses and things will still be good....

this is an interesting point. I have read that scientists have theorized that the earth does switch poles every x or so million, billion or x years. I had thought this meant a complete spin of the egg or topsy turvy switch upside down, which would generate a lot of g's or gravity for those not near the equator.

2. As for more damage to the north- I would say north more, but also far south- anywhere where it's cold and electricity is not available is "difficult" if not damaging.

[samizdat]

This could happen at the equator- if the earth does a half spin- " Hey piper- you in there- this is the wrong white house"

[American Patriot]

this is an interesting point. I have read that scientists have theorized that the earth does switch poles every x or so million, billion or x years. I had thought this meant a complete spin of the egg or topsy turvy switch upside down, which would generate a lot of g's or gravity for those not near the equator.

No, pole flipping does NOT mean, contrary to some of the dumb asses that say it, flipping the planet over.

The MAGNETIC poles flip.

And, honestly, it's not really theory. It's a fact. It's been proven by many core and lava samples showing exactly which way the magnetic domains were when the lava hardened over many millions of years.

[PsycoJoe]

I believe he refers to crustal displacement.

[American Patriot]

I believe he refers to crustal displacement.

He being Sami?

I'm not talking about him. I'm talking about many of the people who believe in "Earth Changes" and think the planet will physically spin over.

There's a large number of people who believe this.

[samizdat]

I believe he refers to crustal displacement.

Actually Joe has a point. Even though the magnetism only switches, not the whole egg, I imagine that would make the earth move under our feet. Now to what extent- well , being the admitted "dumb ass"- (I'm rather stubborn, and have been characterized as much moreso by folk who know me) I'll say I never thought of that before. However- such a powerful shift of magnetism is likely to leave large craters and cracks- a movement of the magnitud that likely formed the continents- 7. I hate it when they switch continent nos. When my kids hit primary school, the continents were 5, and I was sad. Now they're back up to 6.