North Korea set to test Obama’s resolve: analysts

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01-19-2009 18:15
Obama May Send Envoy to North Korea

By James Laney

U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, left, and his wife Michelle wave at the
“We Are One” concert, one of the events of Obama’s inauguration celebrations,
at the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, Sunday. / AFP-Yonhap

The goal of both Seoul and Washington is a non-nuclear, peaceful peninsula. The North's goal is to survive with its sense of dignity intact. The great question is whether these can be reconciled and how the new Obama administration might try.

The end of the Korean War left the issue of who won unresolved, and that shadow has cast a pall over efforts to bring closure ― and peace ― to this day.

The North in its gravely weakened state and despite its huge military, has no prospect of triumphing. Its ambition is to survive and its trump card is its nuclear program.

The South, on the other hand, has become a democratic nation and an economic powerhouse, respected around the world and a model for emerging nations.

Having lost in every realm of competition, the North is thus extremely sensitive about its pride and seeks at every turn to ``win" points against its southern neighbor, even to the point of retaliating by measures not in its own interest. Its sole claim to international attention is having entered the select group of nuclear states.

But its viability is compromised by uncertainty surrounding the health of its leader, questions about orderly succession and its dire economy. As a result, the future of a nuclear North Korea poses huge, urgent problems for the South, the U.S. and the region.

Through several public statements, Obama has indicated how his administration might approach the situation. He has said ``we will be firm and unyielding and our commitment to a non-nuclear Korean peninsula.''

To that end there must be ``verifiable elimination of all North Korea's nuclear weapons programs, as well as its proliferation activities, including with Syria.'' To achieve this, he is prepared to enter into ``direct, sustained, and aggressive diplomacy'' in cooperation and with the support of the six-party process.

What are some of the implications of ``direct, sustained and aggressive diplomacy'' as an approach to the North? President-elect Obama has made a strong point of being willing to meet directly, without precondition, with the leadership of nations with whom the United States has issues of contention, not precluding sending envoys with international reputations and who enjoy the implicit trust of the president himself, to take a fresh look at the overall situation. Too often, these talks have been seen as a reward for meeting prior conditions. In fact, they are necessary if we are to have any kind of leverage on how things play out in the North.

The urgency of direct talks cannot be overstated. A greatly weakened nuclear state poses a threat not so much by its use of such weapons aggressively, but of their ultimate disposition should the state collapse. Non-engagement, no matter how justifiable from a moral or domestic political point of view, is the most dangerous course.

Of course, any direct talks must be undertaken on behalf of the South, not at its expense. Certainly, they must not be understood as diminishing the South's relationship with the United States.

The United States and the South act from a position of overwhelming superiority. The self-imposed isolation of the North with its consequent weakness makes it very vulnerable, both in its sense of dignity and security. Talks will not succeed until the North feels securely enough to be able to relinquish its nuclear arsenal.

Given its precarious state, is that achievable? And will the North's military acquiesce in such a loss of power and status? One can be forgiven for being skeptical of an affirmative answer. Nevertheless, such questions can only be answered, and the answers can only be tested, by the direct and sustained approach Obama proposes.

One of the things that has bedeviled all talks until now is the unresolved status of the Korean War. A peace treaty would provide a baseline for relationships, eliminating the question of the other's legitimacy and right to exist.

Lacking such a peace treaty, every dispute presents afresh the question of the other side's legitimacy. Only with a treaty in place will both sides be relieved of the political demand to see each move as conferring approval or not. After more than a half century, it is time to come to terms with existence simply as a fact, and not see it as a concession.

The absence of diplomatic engagement led the North to break the 1994 Agreement, expand its nuclear program, and to test a nuclear device in 2006. Yet from 1994 to 2003, the freeze at the Yongbyon plant meant there was no production of plutonium or weapons and a corresponding period of diminished tension on the Korea peninsula, giving the South the time and opportunity to move from an emerging to a developed economy and a favored place in the world of international economics. Despite questions about a secret uranium program, Yongbyon was where the action was, and by breaking off engagements, we lost our leverage.

There is a possibility the new President might send a high-level envoy such as Henry Kissinger, Bill Perry, or Sam Nunn to Pyongyang. These men all have established reputations and are known to be astute and tough. They would go with presidential authority to discuss every issue, including a possible peace treaty and normalization in exchange for a verified non-nuclear peninsula.

The greatest threat North Korea poses is not one of deliberate aggression but its instability as a state with nuclear weapons. Its weakened economy and the uncertainties surrounding the orderly succession of leadership make it urgent that the United States and South Korea coordinate their efforts in an aggressive initiative of engagement.

It may not work. But without the effort, there can be little plausible hope for a non-nuclear, peaceful Korean Peninsula. That is the challenge President Obama faces.

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North Korea threatens South with war

North Korea's main newspaper has renewed the threat of military action against South Korea, and warned that the rogue state does not indulge in "empty talk".

By Malcolm Moore in Shanghai
Last Updated: 11:25AM GMT 19 Jan 2009

North Korea imposed border restrictions with South Korea at the start of last month
Photo: REUTERS

On Saturday, a dour man in military uniform appeared on North Korean television, flanked by army flags, and read a statement saying the country was now on a war-footing. He said the North would take an "all-out confrontational posture" against its neighbour.

Although North Korea regularly issues threats against the South, a spokesman for the South Korea Unification ministry said it was the most serious threat since 1998.

The television broadcast accused the South of "opting for the road to confrontation with the help of outside powers, ignoring the call for conciliation and cooperation".

Commentators noted that the broadcast was transmitted just a few days before the inauguration of Barack Obama as US president. "North Korea wants to draw Obama's attention," said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor at Seoul's Dongguk University.

North Korea has repeatedly accused Lee Myung-Bak, the South Korean president, of being a "sycophant" to the United States.

In response to the threat, the South Korean armed forces have been told to "strengthen their alert status". However, the South Koreans aid "no particular movements by the North Korean military have been detected."

A spokesman for the South Korean military said: "Much of the comments are the usual rhetoric and arguments that have been issued previously. North Korea talks a lot but we will have few words and instead respond with action."

North Korea imposed border restrictions with South Korea at the start of last month, accusing the government in Seoul of taking confrontation "beyond the danger level".

Despite the impasse, Seoul's deputy nuclear negotiator has been visiting the North since Thursday. The trip, the highest-level visit to the North in a year, was seen as an indication Pyongyang has not abandoned its nuclear disarmament pact.

Selig Harrison, a US weapons expert returning from talks in Pyongyang, said senior North Korean officials had told him that they have "weaponised" enough plutonium for four to five nuclear weapons. He said 30.8kg of plutonium listed as part of the preliminary disarmament deal had been incorporated into warheads, according to North Korea.

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ANUARY 19, 2009, 9:42 A.M. ET
North Korea Elevates Anti-Seoul Rhetoric as Tensions Rise

By EVAN RAMSTAD

SEOUL -- North Korea raised the volume of its fist-shaking rhetoric over the weekend as the U.S. prepares for a change of leaders and South Korea remains ambivalent to its anger at being cut off from economic aid.

A uniformed military official appeared on North Korean TV to deliver criticism against South Korea, saying the North had been "compelled to enter an all-out confrontation posture to smash it."

The official sharply criticized South Korea's president, Lee Myung-bak, whose insistence on tying economic aid to arms reduction cost North Korea about $300 million last year. North Korea has mounted a steady propaganda campaign against Mr. Lee since last April, but Saturday's announcement gained new attention because of the involvement of the North's military. Such an appearance is rare, and some South Korean analysts called it unprecedented.

Meanwhile, an American scholar who visited Pyongyang last week told reporters in Beijing on Saturday that senior North Korean officials told him they had "weaponized" all the plutonium they previously revealed in diplomatic negotiations. That amount, about 31 kilograms or 68 pounds, is enough to make four to five nuclear weapons, analysts say.

The scholar, Selig Harrison of the Center for International Policy in Washington, said North Korea could be bluffing about the weapons but he added its leaders clearly want the country regarded by others as a nuclear state. Mr. Harrison, a former reporter who has visited the North about a dozen times, is one of a handful of Americans who North Korean officials agree to regularly meet.

The statements conveyed by Mr. Harrison align with several others made in North Korean media in recent weeks that appeared to reset its negotiating posture back to where it was in 2003, when it began aid-for-disarmament negotiations with the U.S., South Korea and three other nations. North Korea renewed its former position that it wouldn't give up weapons until the U.S. forges diplomatic relations with it.

The U.S. under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush insisted that North Korea give up its pursuit of nuclear weapons before Washington agreed to diplomatic ties. In her Senate confirmation testimony last week, Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton said the U.S. would continue that stance in the administration of Barack Obama. Mrs. Clinton also linked a diplomatic relationship to the end of North Korea's uranium enrichment program and human rights atrocities.

North Korea began developing nuclear weapons in the 1970s. In the early 1990s, when its capabilities grew with the start of a nuclear power plant, the U.S. and other countries pushed it to give up the effort. In 2006, North Korea tested an atomic device, though the blast was small compared to other countries' nuclear weapons. Even so, North Korea has used the purported nuclear capability as a bargaining chip to secure the safety of its authoritarian government and receive economic assistance.

After Mr. Lee took office in South Korea nearly a year ago, he ended a decade of few-questions-asked aid to Pyongyang by tying future funding to progress in disarmament. As a result, the South's private sector and food aid to the North dropped to $86 million last year from $325 million in 2007. And the South's government aid to the North fell to about $400,000 from $78 million in 2007.

North Korean officials expressed their anger at the change with a near-daily barrage of invective directed at Mr. Lee. Last week, the South's leading champion of engagement with North Korea, former President Kim Dae-jung, called on Pyongyang to end the campaign against the South and Mr. Lee, saying "it is self-contradicting and has gone too far."

The North Korean military official's appearance this weekend elevated the verbal threats to a new level and South Korea's military raised its alert status in response. But senior South Korean government officials made no statements about it and ordinary South Koreans remained ambivalent. News broadcasts and Internet portals in South Korea were dominated by domestic affairs, including the resignation of the nation's top tax official and the appointments of a new intelligence chief and ambassador to the U.S.

The new U.S. ambassador, Han Duck-soo, is a former finance minister and prime minister who, under previous President Roh Moo-hyun, championed free-trade talks with the U.S., European Union and Canada.

—SungHa Park contributed to this article.

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What's Behind North Korea's Tough Talk?

North Korea's Military Promises to 'Crush' South Korea; Analysts Reflect on Threat

By JOOHEE CHO
SEOUL, South Korea, Jan. 19, 2009

North Korea unleashed another round of war threats today against South Korea, leading Korean experts to wonder if this time it means it or if it is merely more blustering triggered by the newly installed and more hard-line leadership in Seoul.

A look at the implications behind war threats made against South Korea.Rodong Sinmun. the leading state-run newspaper, said today the government would "destroy and wipe out" an invasion if South Korea's "war maniacs ignite the fire of war."

Officials in Seoul played down the North's threat, saying most of the comments are a repeat from the past, but unnamed government sources have been quoted in local media as saying the threat deserves more consideration. The South Korean military has beefed up its surveillance.

On Saturday more threats were made on state-run television, delivered by a North Korean military spokesman who appeared in full uniform, an unusual move, observers said, to accuse Seoul of plotting an invasion.

The spokesman blasted South Korea's conservative new government lead by President Lee-Myung-bak saying, "Our revolutionary armed forces will launch into an all-out confrontational posture to crush the South."


Just days before, North Korea sent a message to President-elect Barack Obama's incoming administration through an American scholar who was visiting Pyongyang. Selig Harrison, director of the Washington-based Center for International Policy's Asia Program, told reporters in Beijing, "North Korea said very categorically and repeatedly on my visit that the 30.8 kilograms of plutonium ... has been weaponized."

That sent defense experts in the region guessing as to what North Korea actually meant by "weaponizing." "North Koreans want to make it kind of elusive, make the other side guess as to where they are. And that's, of course, what is beautiful about bluffing," said Jung-Hoon Lee, a professor of international relations at Yonsei University in Seoul.

Although North Korea has a long track record of bluffing, threatening and sometimes lying, many experts warn that this time, the world should at least pay attention.

"They have been continuously stressing not only within, but to the outside world, that this is not a bluff," said Moo-Jin Yang, professor of North Korean studies at Kyungnam University. "There is a good chance that they will provoke military confrontation, especially in the West Sea, sometime in the near future."

The two Koreas engaged in naval skirmishes over the disputed western sea border in 1999 and 2002.

Despite the warnings, most South Koreans seem oblivious to North Korea's belligerent threat.

When the North Korean military spokesperson showed up on its state television last Saturday, the first ever fully-uniformed unusual appearance got analysts guessing whether they might be serious this time. "North and South, we are close. If they attack us, then it will damage them too," said high school student Min-Jung Hwang, in the streets of Seoul.

"From what I know, North Koreans don't like to fight. There's no way they are going to use those nuclear weapons against us," said Hwe-Seung Choi, who claims he is well aware of the nuclear issue because he completed the mandatory military service.

Most analysts agreed that the recent series of threats have a purpose. Rather than launch those nuclear warheads, the North may be looking to grab attention from the world to help sustain the impoverished communist regime.

Domestically, political scientists point out it is an effective method to prop up people's support and tighten control. International aid agencies have reported winter famine killing hundreds of thousands of people, and rumors swirled that the health of its autocratic leader Kim Jong il is deteriorating.

Externally though, North Korea watchers said this could be the country's way of holding out an olive branch. "North Koreans are people of pride, but they also know that they are the weak. So they're trying to set the stage starting tough. But what they really want is the economic aid that follows normalization," said Yang.

ABC News' Jessica Kim and The Associated Press contributed to the reporting of this story.

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Part of me thinks this is just classic North Korea. Just when things are quiet, pound the drums to make people notice the little guy. Attention stealing from a US inauguration. "Look at me."

Then another part of me knows that 'lil Kim is just bat shit crazy and is willing to go to Hell in a handbasket just for spite.

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I think they are looking for another handout.

But who knows, America is now entering unprecedented times.

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Tuesday, January 20, 2009
North Korea renews threats against South

* Seoul pledges ‘calm’ response to threat

SEOUL: North Korea warned Monday that it does not engage in “empty talk” and has “guns and bayonets” aimed at its southern neighbor, heightening tensions surrounding its threat to take military action to counter what it calls South Korean plans to invade.

North Korea’s military accused South Korean President Lee Myung-bak on Saturday of plotting an invasion of the North and warned of strong military steps in retaliation and “an all-out confrontational posture.” South Korea denied it was planning to invade and put its military on alert. South Korea said Monday it had detected no unusual moves by the North’s military, and Unification Ministry spokesman Kim Ho-nyeon said Seoul will cope with the situation in a “calm” manner.

But with ties between the wartime rivals at a decade low, Lee replaced the Cabinet minister responsible for North Korean affairs with a security expert hawkish on Pyongyang, the presidential office announced Monday. Hyun In-taek advised Lee on security issues during his 2007 presidential campaign. Like the president, he is a strong critic of the “Sunshine Policy” espoused by Lee’s two liberal predecessors, who sought to pave the way for reconciliation by offering the North unconditional aid.

Analysts say Hyun’s appointment suggests Lee will stick to his hard-line policy on the North. Tensions between the two Koreas, which technically remain at war because their 1950-53 conflict ended in a truce, not a peace treaty, have been escalating since Lee took office nearly a year ago pledging to get tough with the nuclear-armed neighbour. The North since has cut off all ties and suspended several joint projects.

The North’s main Rodong Sinmun newspaper renewed the country’s warnings on Monday, saying it would “destroy and wipe out” invaders in “one strike” if South Korean “war maniacs ignite the fire of war.” “The Lee Myung-bak group should bear in mind that our guns and bayonets ... are aimed at their throats,” the paper said in a commentary, carried by the official Korean Central News Agency. “We know no empty talk.” Such threats are not uncommon and are typically issued through state-run media. ap

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US says North Korea will face tough Obama

Posted: 20 January 2009 0228 hrs

WASHINGTON: The White House said on Monday that Barack Obama would likely stand firm in opposing North Korea's nuclear programmes and dismissed Pyongyang's atomic defiance as a childish tantrum.

"It's not surprising that they would bang their spoons on their high chair to try to get attention," spokeswoman Dana Perino said after the North said it may keep its nuclear arms and threatened confrontation with South Korea.

Pyongyang's foreign ministry said on Saturday that it would retain its atomic weaponry as long as it feels under nuclear threat from Washington.

Hours later, its military called for an "all-out confrontational posture" against South Korea, prompting Seoul to order its armed forces on alert along the land and sea border.

"I think that the North Koreans will find that they (Obama's team) will be just as against North Korea's nuclear weapons programmes as the Bush administration has been," said Perino.

"What we leave to the new administration is a diplomatic process where all of North Korea's neighbours are at the table, united against their nuclear ambitions, and it's through that diplomatic process that they (Obama's team) will succeed," said Perino.

She was referring to the six-party denuclearisation talks grouping China, Japan, Russia, North and South Korea, and the United States.

US secretary of state designate Hillary Clinton took a tough line on North Korea during at a Senate confirmation hearing last week and said that the Obama administration favoured the six-party negotiations.

She also vowed a "very aggressive effort" against North Korea's alleged role in atomic weapons proliferation.

"We have got to end North Korea as a proliferator... So we will embark upon a very aggressive effort to try to determine the best way forward to achieve our objectives with them," Clinton said during a question-and-answer session.

"Our goal is to end the North Korean nuclear programme - both the plutonium reprocessing programme and the highly enriched uranium programme, which there is reason to believe exists, although never quite verified," Clinton said.

"It is our strong belief that the six-party talks... is a vehicle for us to exert pressure on North Korea in a way that is more likely to alter their behaviour," the 61-year-old senator from New York told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

"I have no illusions about that. I think it takes tough, reality-based diplomacy to determine what is doable," she said.

Negotiations are deadlocked over differences over how to determine whether North Korea is telling the truth about scrapping its nuclear programmes. - AFP/de

[Toad]

I think they are looking for another handout.

...

Entirely possible.

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North Korea 'has 100 tons of uranium'

17:33 | 20/ 01/ 2009

MOSCOW, January 20 (RIA Novosti) - North Korea has about 14,800 unused fuel rods, the equivalent of just over 100 tons of uranium, a South Korean news agency reported on Tuesday.

"North Korea asked us to focus on the issue of unused fuel rods," South Korea's deputy chief nuclear envoy Hwang Joon-kook told reporters after returning from a five-day visit fact-finding mission to decide whether to buy the rods.

Seoul said earlier it would consider buying the rods if they could be used at its civilian nuclear power plants.

Yonhap also quoted Hwang as saying his discussions with North Korean officials in Pyongyang were confined to "technical aspects," and that he "was limited in who he could meet."

He also said he was not allowed to visit the North's Foreign Ministry or meet its chief nuclear negotiator, Kim Kye-gwan.

The visit was part of talks involving six countries - the two Koreas, the U.S., Russia, China and Japan - on a deal to provide fuel and economic incentives to North Korea in exchange for Pyongyang giving details of its nuclear program and disabling its atomic facilities. The process recently came to a halt amid diplomatic wrangling.

"We looked around the nuclear facilities in Yongbyon that are being disabled," Hwang said, adding that his team had confirmed that about 14,800 unused fuel rods, which are equivalent to 101.9 tons of uranium, were being stored at the Yongbyon complex. The materials are reportedly worth over US$10 million.

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North Korea's Kim 'Names Successor'

Sun, 18 Jan 2009 12:19:53 -0600

According to unnamed intelligence sources in South Korea and Japan, Kim Jong-il has named one of his sons as his heir – thereby furthering the dynastic tradition begun by his own father, Kim Il-sung.

South Korean intelligence sources claim that Kim has named his youngest son, Kim Jong-un as his successor, while Japanese sources indicate that he has instead chosen his eldest son, Kim Jong-nam for the role.

Jong-nam gained notoriety in 2001, when during an attempt to visit Japan, he was detained by Japanese authorities and subsequently deported to China; he allegedly told Japanese officials at the time that he had wanted to see Tokyo Disneyland. It was rumored that he then turned up in Macao – Asia’s answer to Las Vegas – where he lived for three years as a high-rolling playboy. Reports suggest that he returned to the DPRK in 2007, and that he was attempting to mend ties with his father.

Whether this leaked information is true or not, it will certainly add to the speculation about “the Great Leader’s” health, and may be reflected in a change of U.S. diplomatic maneuvering in the region.

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North and South Korea stand on 'the brink of war'

The confrontaion between North and South Korea has escalated with Kim Jong-il's regime claiming it was on the 'brink of war' after tearing up a non-aggression pact signed in 1991.

By David Eimer in Beijing
Last Updated: 1:08PM GMT 30 Jan 2009

North and South Korea stand on the 'brink of war' as Kim Jong-il's tears up the non-aggression pact.

In a significant escalation of tensions, North Korea cancelled all military and political agreements after accusing Seoul of aggressive posturing.

Pyongyang's decision to nullify all accords increases the prospect of an armed confrontation on the Peninsula, where over a million soldiers face each other across the Demilitarised Zone that divides the two Koreas.

North Korea's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea blamed the South for pushing the two countries "to the brink of a war".

Pyongyang said it now regarded the maritime border between the two states as "void". The last time the two countries clashed militarily was at the disputed frontier in the Yellow Sea, when their navies fought a deadly gun battle in June 2002.

In comments reported by state media in North Korea, the Committee, which is in charge of inter-Korean affairs, claimed that the relationship between the two sides had sunk to a new low.

"There is neither way to improve (relations) nor hope to bring them on track," the committee was quoted as saying. It described the agreements as "dead documents" and warned the South that its policies would result in its "shameful destruction".

Since the start of the year, Pyongyang has been increasingly critical of its neighbour. Earlier this week, it attacked the choice of Hyun In-taek as the new head of South Korea's Unification Ministry, saying it was evidence that its neighbour was planning a confrontation between the two states, a claim denied by Seoul.

But the North has reserved its greatest ire for South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who it has described as a "traitor".

Pyongyang remains furious over Mr Lee's decision last year to end the so-called "sunshine policy", in which North Korea received unconditional economic aid in an effort to encourage reconciliation.

Mr Lee has cut the amount of aid given to the North and insists that will continue until progress is made on disarming Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal.

"The North is using the warning of an armed maritime clash to pressure Seoul to change its hardline stance," said Yang Moo-Jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. Analysts believe that Pyongyang's move is also an attempt to focus the attention of America's new president on the Peninsula. The Six-Party talks aimed at ending North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons have been stalled since last August, with the North's leader Kim Jong-il thought to be waiting to see the approach of President Obama towards the rogue state.

Kim, who is believed to have recovered from the stroke he suffered in August, wants closer ties with the US. Years of global isolation have left the North impoverished and reliant on aid from China and South Korea to survive. Having long used its nuclear capability as a way of extracting concessions from the US, the North has come under increased pressure from Beijing to restart the Six-Party Talks.

South Korea expressed "deep regret" at the North's cutting of ties. "We urge North Korea to accept our call for dialogue as soon as possible," said Kim Ho-Nyoun, the spokesman for South Korea's Unification Ministry. But the South's armed forces have been on high alert since earlier in the month and it has vowed to maintain the border in the Yellow Sea, which was imposed at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War by the US-led UN forces. As the conflict ended with a truce and not a peace treaty, the two Koreas are technically still at war.

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January 30, 2009 -- Updated 1148 GMT (1948 HKT)
N. Korea ups ante in standoff with S. Korea

SEOUL, South Korea (CNN) -- North Korea said Friday it has nullified all political and military agreements with South Korea, an extreme move that could raise tensions between the neighbors and lead to a military clash, South Korean state-run media reported.


Kim Ho-nyoun, South Korea's Unification Ministry spokesman, said the move was "not desirable."

Leaders in South Korea expressed "deep regret" for North Korea's threat and advocated for more dialogue and cooperation, according to a government statement.

The Yonhap news agency reported that North Korea's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea called South Korean leaders "traitors" and said they have already violated all agreements between the two.

Because of that, the committee believed that North Korea did need to adhere to any of the agreements, the agency reported.

The move could trample a "a landmark accord that the Koreas reached in 1991 to prevent military clashes and boost reconciliatory efforts," Yonhap reported.

Many of the agreements were on maritime boundaries.

South Korea's military was on high alert after the statement, but no unusual activity was spotted, the agency reported.

"We hope that North Korea fully understands that raising tension between the South and the North is not desirable for settling peace on the Korean peninsula," Kim Ho-nyoun, South Korean spokesman for the Unification Ministry said in a statement.

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Q+A: Why is North Korea scrapping deals with South?

Fri Jan 30, 2009 5:12pm GMT

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said on Friday it was scrapping all political and military deals it has struck with the South in anger at Seoul's policy of ending unconditional aid to its destitute neighbor.

Here are questions and answers on why North Korea has made the threat and the risks to regional security:

WHY IS THE NORTH TAKING THIS ACTION?

North Korea wants to pressure South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and drum up political support at home. But it particularly wants to attract the attention of Washington, which it has long tried to win over.

The North may still be trying to figure out its approach with new U.S. President Barack Obama, making it easier for Pyongyang to focus its saber-rattling on U.S. allies, including Seoul, rather than directly confront Washington.

WHAT CHANGES WITH THE END OF THESE ACCORDS?

Very little. The statement itself does not carry much weight because North Korea has cut off almost all contacts with the South over the past year in anger at Lee's tough stance. The North, which doesn't like to be ignored, has been lashing out at Lee for months, only to find its vitriolic barbs mostly ignored by Seoul. The latest statement may reflect its frustration. An armistice that marked the end of hostilities of the 1950-53 Korean War is not affected because South Korea was not a signatory.

WHAT IS LEFT TO CUT OFF? Continued...


View article on single page Previous Page 1 | 2 | 3 Next Page

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North Korea may test-fire missile toward Japan

Wed Feb 4, 2009 3:00am GMT
By Jack Kim

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea may be preparing to use the site of its previous ballistic missile launches on the east coast to fire its longest range missile, possibly towards Japan, news reports said on Wednesday.

Reports of a possible missile launch follow threats directed at Seoul and Washington, which analysts said are meant to intimidate conservative South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and grab the attention of new U.S. President Barack Obama.

South Korea's Chosun Ilbo newspaper quoted government sources as saying that a large object suspected to be part of a long-range Taepodong-2 missile is being transported to the missile site on North Korea's east coast.

"The test site on the east coast means the missile will likely be fired over Japan and in the direction of the United States," Chosun Ilbo quoted the source as saying.

The Taepodong-2 is supposed to have a range that could eventually take it as far as Alaska, but has never successfully flown.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted a government source as saying the object could be headed for an east coast test site in the town of Musudan-ri, or a newly built site on the west coast or to an unidentified third location.

Separate news reports on Tuesday said the object carried on a train may be headed to North Korea's newly built launch pad on the west coast, near China.

BLUSTER AND BRINKSMANSHIP

North Korea fired a ballistic missile from Musudan-ri in 1998 that flew over Japan and landed in the Pacific Ocean. A Taepodong-2 launched from there in 2006 reportedly failed less than a minute into flight.

North Korea, which has a history of conducting diplomacy with bluster and brinkmanship, knows its missile facilities are monitored by spy satellites, and that it can put pressure on the United States and its allies simply by moving missile parts.

It takes North Korea about a month or two to prepare a Taepodong-2 for launch, which could be Pyongyang's deadline for when it expects something positive from Seoul or Washington, analysts said.

"If North Korea were to successfully launch a Taepodong missile, it would significantly alter the threat environment to the U.S. and its Asian allies," said Bruce Klingner, a Korea expert at the Heritage Foundation.

North Korea, which tested a small nuclear device in 2006, is seen as one of the greatest threats to regional security. In 2007, it started to disable a nuclear plant that makes arms-grade plutonium as a part of an international disarmament-for-aid deal.

But experts say they do not believe it has the technology to miniaturise an atomic weapon to mount on a missile as a warhead.

North Korea is directing much of its venom towards the conservative South Korean president, who ended this left-leaning predecessors' policy of unconditional aid to the impoverished North when he took office last year.

"It is as clear as noonday that inter-Korean dialogue can never be resumed as long as the crafty political swindler remains in power as his deeds do not agree with his words," North Korea's state media said on Tuesday.

(Additional reporting by Rhee So-eui; Editing by Paul Tait)

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North Korea may fire missiles across sea border(AFP)

6 February 2009

SEOUL – North Korea may fire short-range missiles across its disputed sea border with South Korea to bolster its sabre-rattling campaign against the Seoul government, media reports said on Friday.

Seoul officials believe this is the likeliest form of provocation from the communist state, according to the Chosun Ilbo newspaper and Yonhap news agency.

The North, which is fiercely hostile to Seoul’s conservative government, announced last week it has scrapped all peace agreements with the South including one covering the Yellow Sea borderline.

Its official media has repeatedly warned of a possible armed clash.

Pyongyang is also apparently preparing for a separate long-range missile test-launch, according to US and South Korean officials this week. Washington has said any such launch would be “provocative.”

Chosun said Seoul security officials at a meeting on January 30 -- the day the North scrapped its pacts—concluded that a missile launch over the Northern Limit Line was the likeliest provocation.

The North refuses to recognise the NLL, which was drawn unilaterally by United Nations forces after the 1950-53 war. The area was the scene of bloody naval clashes in 1999 and 2002.

“Pyongyang may use the logic that South Korean leaflets being sent to the North is on a par with North Korea firing missiles at the South,” Chosun quoted an unidentified official as saying.

Rights activists periodically use balloons to launch leaflets across the border fiercely criticising the North’s regime.

They plan another launch to mark leader Kim Jong-Il’s birthday on February 16, and Chosun said the North could retaliate with some kind of military action.

The North used its west coast naval base on Chodo island to test-fire missiles into its own waters last October. The sea border is in range of Chodo.

Chosun quoted an unidentified intelligence officer as saying the North may not provoke a naval skirmish because the South’s navy is better-armed.

Yonhap said the apparent preparations for a long-range missile launch—in full view of satellite TV cameras—could be aimed at distracting attention from planned launches across the sea border.

“We are intensifying our monitoring of the west coast because we believe that is where North Korea could fire short-range missiles in a surprise move,” a defence official told the agency on condition of anonymity.

“Missiles could be launched near the NLL because that is the area North Korea wants to make a statement on,” Paik Hak-Soon, of the Sejong Institute think-tank, told Yonhap.

Relations soured last spring after President Lee Myung-Bak took office in Seoul and rolled back the “sunshine” engagement policy of his liberal predecessors.

Lee linked major economic aid to denuclearisation and said he would review summit pacts signed by the North and his predecessors—a stance that enrages Pyongyang.

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Friday February 6, 2009
U.S. military at ready for North Korea missile launch

By Paul Eckert, Asia Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. military is warily watching "rumblings" of a long-range missile test by North Korea and is ready with a range of responses, the commander of U.S. forces in Asia and the Pacific said on Thursday.

"I don't know if they are or are not," Navy Adm. Timothy Keating said in response to South Korean media reports that the communist North is preparing to launch a long-range Taepodong-2 missile, possibly in the direction of Japan.

"We are watching it with a number of other agencies and countries," the Hawaii-based commander told Reuters in an interview at the Pentagon.

"We're going to be prepared in a number of different ways if and when the president tells us to respond," Keating said.

Leading South Korean media outlets quoted Seoul officials as saying preparations were being made for a launch of a Taepodong-2 missile. The missile has a range that could eventually take it as far as Alaska, but has never flown successfully.

Keating, who commands forces that include 28,000 troops in South Korea and 50,000 in Japan, declined to comment on intelligence on the reported missile test. North Korea tested a nuclear device in October 2006.

But he added: "The open-source reporting is probably pretty close to the same sort of information we're getting."

North Korea's recent belligerent rhetoric toward South Korea, its struggling economy, hungry population and the uncertain future of its leadership in the wake of a reported stroke suffered by leader Kim Jong-il made it a "troublesome" factor in the region, Keating said.

"Their unpredictable behavior is a cause of concern," he said.

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North’s missile test to violate UN resolutions: S Korea(AFP)

5 February 2009

SEOUL - South Korea warned North Korea Thursday to scrap any plans to launch its longest-range missile, saying this would violate United Nations resolutions passed after the last test in 2006.

Officials in Seoul and Washington say there are signs the communist state is preparing to test the Taepodong-2, which has a range of 6,700 kilometres (4,150 miles) and could theoretically target Alaska.

The reports, based on satellite photos, come amid stalled six-nation nuclear disarmament talks and rising inter-Korean tensions. The North has scrapped a non-aggression pact with the South and warned of possible conflict.

Pyongyang, in what some analysts see as a message to the new US administration, has also staked out a tough negotiating position in the disarmament talks involving the US and four regional powers.

Seoul’s foreign ministry refused comment on reports of launch preparations but said any such move would breach UN Security Council resolutions.

‘The UNSC in 2006 adopted Resolutions 1695 and 1718, expressing serious concerns over the North’s missile programme and delivering a firm message,’ spokesman Moon Tae-Young told a briefing.

‘If the North lobs a missile, it would constitute a clear breach of the UN resolution.’

The US State Department has said any test would be ‘provocative.’

The North carried out long-range missile tests in 1998 and 2006, sparking international condemnation. Experts disagree on whether it is technically capable of fitting the missiles with a nuclear warhead.

The Taepodong-2 launched in 2006 failed after 40 seconds, according to US officials. A Seoul government source told Yonhap news agency the missile spotted recently is believed to be a modified version.

The last round of six-party talks ended in deadlock in December because of disagreements over ways to verify the North’s atomic disclosures.

Relations with South Korea soured last spring, after conservative President Lee Myung-Bak took office and rolled back the ‘sunshine’ engagement policy of his liberal predecessors.

Lee linked major economic aid to denuclearisation and said he would review summit pacts signed by the North and his predecessors.

A US expert who visited Pyongyang last month described Lee’s stance on the summit deals as a ‘disastrous, historic mistake.’

Selig Harrison told a Washington think-tank the posture served to ‘revive North Korean fears that South Korea, the United States and Japan want regime change and absorption.

‘They’re especially sensitive about this with Kim Jong-Il ill,’ Harrison said Wednesday.

Leader Kim, who turns 67 this month, is widely reported to have suffered a stroke last August. Harrison said hawks have come to dominate defence policy since then.

‘North Korea has suddenly adopted a much harder line (in six-party negotiations) than before and the question is why,’ he said.

Though some analysts believed it was a ‘bargaining posture’ aimed at the new US administration, Harrison stressed the fallout from the leader’s illness and political changes in South Korea as contributing factors.

The scholar, confirming earlier reports, said he believes Kim has a greatly reduced work schedule.

‘He has turned over day-to-day management of domestic affairs to his brother-in-law Jang Song-Taek and foreign affairs and defence policy is now largely in the hands of hawks in the National Defence Commission,’ Harrison said.

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China Urges North Korea Not To Fuel Regional Tensions

BEIJING (AFP)--China urged its ally North Korea on Thursday not to do anything that would harm regional stability, amid reports Kim Jong Il's regime was planning to test-fire its longest-range missile.

"We hope all the parties can recognize that maintaining stability is in the common interest of the people of the Korean peninsula," foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said when asked about the reported missile test plans.

"As a close neighbor, we always support South and North Korea having better relations through dialogue and promote cooperation...it's also conducive to peace and stability in the region."

Jiang rejected a reporter's assertion that China had remained silent on the missile issue while North Korea had ratcheted up tensions recently by taking a particularly strong stance publicly against the U.S. and South Korea.

"That's not correct," she said.

Officials in Seoul and Washington say there are signs North Korea is preparing to test the Taepodong-2, which has a range of 6,700 kilometers and could theoretically target Alaska.

The reports, based on satellite photos, come amid stalled six-nation nuclear disarmament talks hosted by China.

The North has also recently scrapped a nonaggression pact with the South and warned of possible conflict.

The South Korean government warned on Thursday that testing the missile would violate U.N. resolutions passed after the North's last test in 2006.


(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-05-090450ET

[Ryan Ruck]

North’s missile test to violate UN resolutions: S Korea(AFP)

Sounds like it is time to send in Hans Brix...