North Korea set to test Obama’s resolve: analysts

[vector7]

North Korea set to test Obama’s resolve: analysts

(AFP)

18 January 2009

SEOUL - Despite a daunting array of challenges elsewhere, US president-elect Barack Obama cannot afford to put nuclear-armed North Korea on the back-burner, analysts say.

They expect the hardline communist state to turn up the heat in coming months to test his resolve, possibly with more missile launches or even a second atomic test.

Its aim would be to renegotiate a six-nation aid-for-disarmament deal agreed in 2007, which is stalled by the North’s rejection of strict verification of its declared nuclear activities.

“These (six-nation) talks will be an early challenge for the incoming administration,” President George W. Bush’s National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said this month.

“North Korea will test the new administration by once again trying to split the six parties (the United States, the two Koreas, China, Japan and Russia) and renegotiate the deal.”

South Korea’s state-run Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security said Pyongyang might even stage more missile or nuclear tests to try to tame Obama’s administration or increase its own negotiating clout.

The first apparent challenge came Saturday, when the North asserted it may retain its nuclear weapons even after establishing diplomatic ties with Washington as long as it remains under a US nuclear threat.

Professor Yang Moo-Jin of the University of North Korean Studies told AFP: “North Korea is saying through these statements to Obama: ‘hey, look! We’re here with nuclear weapons in hand. Don’t look at Iran or elsewhere but at us first.’”

Hours later the North’s army General Staff stepped up the pressure.

In an unusually strongly worded statement it warned it would not allow intrusions by South Korean vessels into disputed waters in the Yellow Sea—the scene of bloody naval clashes in 1999 and 2002.

“Now that traitor Lee Myung-Bak and his group opted for confrontation... our revolutionary armed forces are compelled to take an all-out confrontational posture to shatter them,” a military spokesman said in reference to South Korea’s conservative president.

The North shocked the world with its first nuclear test in 2006 but four months later signed the denuclearisation deal.

Under the current phase of the pact it is disabling its ageing plutonium-producing plants in return for energy aid.

It has supplied information about its plutonium operation, but rejects US suspicions of a separate secret programme using highly enriched uranium.

The final phase calls for the scrapping of nuclear weapons and material in return for normalised relations with the US and a treaty formally ending the 1950-53 Korean War.

The North has also made some conciliatory gestures. A New Year message did not criticise the United States and Pyongyang even reportedly suggested sending an envoy to Obama’s inauguration, which takes place on Tuesday.

“The North Koreans will be patient and send out signals of goodwill” for the time being,” Daniel Pinkston, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, told AFP before the latest statements from the North.

“Over the next three to six months, if there is some action or initiative from Washington that is perceived to be hostile or uncooperative, or they feel they are being ignored or disrespected, they will do something provocative.”

They could, he said, use a long-range missile to launch a satellite. A second nuclear test was also possible some time in the future.

Such pressure tactics are seen as unlikely to work.

The Democratic administration “is likely to ask for stronger verification measures than what was agreed during the Bush administration,” said Cheon Seongwhun of the Korea Institute for National Unification in a recent article.

Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton last week backed the six-party approach, but also indicated a greater openness to bilateral talks—apparently leaving the door open for a meeting at some point between Obama and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il.

Some analysts believe Pyongyang, while willing to stop producing plutonium, will never hand over its bombs and seeks tacit acceptance as a nuclear power.

This, said Cheon, is something no US president could accept.

“The moment Washington decides that negotiation alone is unable to shove Pyongyang into denuclearisation, it will swiftly turn to a different approach and impose pressure on the North Korean regime on a whole new dimension,” he wrote.

[vector7]

S Korea increases military readiness after Pyongyang's warning

www.chinaview.cn 2009-01-18 13:21:14

SEOUL, Jan. 18 (Xinhua) -- The South Korean military has increased military readiness for possible conflicts with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) following Pyongyang's latest warning, South Korean officials said Sunday.

According to South Korea's Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean military has been put on increased alert after the DPRK army spokesman released a statement through DPRK's television networks nation side on Saturday about the "all-out confrontational posture."

South Korean officials told local media they are taking the DPRK's threat seriously and are preparing for "all possibilities."

According to Yonhap, the South Korean military is deploying an "overwhelming" number of troops near potential flash points, including the disputed maritime territory with DPRK on the Yellow Sea, and is keeping a "close watch" on DPRK's move.

However, the South Korean government said they will "take a low-key approach" to the situation and have decided not to issue an official response to the warning to avoid to further provoke the DPRK.

The inter-Korean ties have witnessed serious setbacks since South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who adopts hardline policy towards Pyongyang, took office early last year.

Following DPRK's warning, the main opposition Democratic Party expressed regret to DPRK's move while urging the government to change its policy towards Pyongyang and act to improve inter-Korean ties.

[vector7]

U.S. Imperialists' Scheme to Beef up Their Aggressor Forces in S. Korea Flayed

Pyongyang, January 16 (KCNA) -- The U.S. imperialists are giving spurs to beefing up their aggressor forces present in south Korea, according to Yonhap News of south Korea.

They announced on Jan. 13 that they would deploy more F-16s in south Korea instead of A-10s which they had agreed with it to introduce as a substitute for a squadron of Apache helicopters belonging to the U.S. forces stationed in south Korea expected to be brought back to their mainland in March.

Meanwhile, they are planning to deploy two MH-53s of the U.S. Navy in a unit of the U.S. forces in south Korea within this year besides the deployment of F-16s and increase the number of personnel for the operation of U-2.

Such disturbing military moves go to clearly prove that the U.S. imperialists are working with bloodshot eyes to round off the preparations for a war of aggression against the DPRK behind the scene of dialogue from the outset of the year.

[vector7]

North Korea claims to have weaponized plutonium

BEIJING, China (CNN) -- Senior North Korean officials say the communist regime has "weaponized" its stockpile of plutonium, according to a U.S. scholar, in a move suggesting that North Korea may have significantly hardened its stance on nuclear negotiations.
Selig Harrison said North Korean officials claimed to have enough plutonium for four or five warheads.

Selig Harrison said North Korean officials claimed to have enough plutonium for four or five warheads.


Selig Harrison, one of the few U.S. scholars granted access to senior North Korean officials, said at a news conference in Beijing that the officials told him they had weaponized 30.8 kilograms of plutonium, enough for four or five warheads.

The director of the Asia Program at the Center for International Policy, who just returned from a five-day visit to Pyongyang, said senior North Korean officials told him the warheads will not be open for inspection.

If it is true, the news portends a gloomy outlook for the future of the six-party talks that began in 2003 with the goal of getting North Korea to end its nuclear program.

"It does change the game," Harrison said.

South Korea, the United States, Japan, China and Russia are participating in the talks.

A 2007 agreement calls for scrapping nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula in return for energy aid to the North, normalized relations between the North and the United States and Japan, and a formal peace pact. Video Watch a report on North Korea's nuclear negotiations »
Don't Miss


The North Koreans told Harrison they want the rest of the fuel aid that Japan has promised them.

North Korea had agreed to disable the reactor that had produced plutonium for nuclear weapons. But the United States and its allies have asked it to give up the plutonium it already has, an estimated 30 kilograms, as well as details of any other bomb-producing programs.

Harrison said one possible reason for Pyongyang's tough new stance could be the declining health of leader Kim Jong Il, who reportedly suffered a stroke last year and may no longer be involved in day-to-day decisions.

"People I talked to have many indications that some important things are submitted to him, but he is not working in the way he used to," Harrison said.

He said military hard-liners have taken the lead in demanding from the United States a full declaration and verification of all nuclear weapons sent to South Korea between 1957 and 1991. The hard-liners also seek full normalization of relations with Washington before more talks about scrapping their nuclear arsenal.

On Tuesday, during her Senate confirmation hearing for the secretary of state position, Sen. Hillary Clinton made it clear: de-nuclearization first, then diplomatic normalization.

President-elect Barack Obama has stated his willingness to talk to the North Korean leader.

Harrison also said the North demanded the completion of the light-water reactors as compensation for the dismantling of the Yongbyon nuclear reactor.

The light-water reactor, which is not capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium, was promised to North Korea in the early 1990s for the North giving up its nuclear weapons. Its construction has been suspended.
advertisement

North Korea has long considered its nuclear program integral to its national security.

North Korea tested a nuclear weapon in 2006. In June, it acknowledged producing about 40 kilograms of enriched plutonium.

[vector7]

S. Korean Military On Alert After N. Korea Pledges 'Confrontational Posture'

Sunday, January 18, 2009


File: A Digital Globe satellite image shows a nuclear facility in Yongbyon, North Korea.

SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea said its military forces remained on alert Sunday a day after North Korea issued a statement pledging "an all-out confrontational posture."

The Korean People's Army called South Korea's president a "traitor" and accused him of preparing a military provocation, according to a Saturday report by the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency.

A Defense Ministry official said Sunday the South's military will remain on alert. The official spoke on condition of anonymity citing department policy.

The North has issued similar threats in the past in anger over hard-line policies that South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has implemented since taking office last year.

South Korea denies taking a confrontational stance and has repeatedly called for dialogue with the North.

Koh Yu-hwan, a North Korea expert at Seoul's Dongguk University, said the North's latest saber-rattling could be a negotiating tactic aimed at Seoul and Washington ahead of the Tuesday inauguration of President-elect Barack Obama.

South Korea, the U.S. and three other nations have sought to coax North Korea — which detonated an atomic device in 2006 — to give up its nuclear program by offering aid for disarmament. The pact has been deadlocked over how to verify North Korea's past nuclear activities.
Related

[vector7]

North Korea military says to "wipe out" the South

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea's army said on Saturday it would assume an "all-out confrontational posture" against the South and wipe out the conservative government in Seoul for refusing to cooperate with them.

This implies there is no room left for any kind of negotiation

Ties across the heavily-armed border between the two Koreas have turned icy since President Lee Myung-bak came to office last year on a promise to get tough on his communist neighbour after 10 years of liberal leaders' efforts to engage Pyongyang.

A mention here to say we have been poised in this position for long enough, time for an alternate plan

"Now that traitor Lee Myung Bak and his group opted for confrontation, denying national reconciliation and cooperation, backed by foreign forces, our revolutionary armed forces are compelled to take an all-out confrontational posture to shatter them," the North's army spokesman said.

At least they are using the word posture here, this tends to denote a change of stance, which in its self could be enough to tip the balance

The spokesman said Lee and his "puppet military warhawks" have driven "our revolutionary armed forces to take a strong military retaliatory step to wipe them out," in comments carried by the official KCNA news agency.

[vector7]

Top Secret In Space — Covert Inspection of Crippled Defense Military Satellite

January 18, 2009

In a top secret operation, the U.S. Defense Dept. is conducting the first deep space inspection of a crippled U.S. military spacecraft. To do this, it is using sensors on two covert inspection satellites that have been prowling geosynchronous orbit for nearly three years.

An artist's concept shows a DSP satellite deployed in space. Credit: Northrop Grumman

The failed satellite being examined is the $400 million U.S. Air Force/Northrop Grumman Defense Support Program DSP 23 missile warning satellite. It died in 2008 after being launched successfully from Cape Canaveral in November 2007 on the first operational Delta 4-Heavy booster.

Since the U.S. is now demonstrating the ability to do such up close rendezvous and inspection of American spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit, it means USAF now has at least a "call up capability" to do the same to non-U.S. spacecraft like those from Russia and China.

The operation, at nearly 25,000 miles altitude, reveals a major new U.S. military space capability, says John Pike who heads GlobalSecurity.Org, a military think tank.

[vector7]

ALERT: Early warning satellite (warns of missile launches) is down.

They are trying to send resources to see what happened to the satellite.

[samizdat]

hmmm. whacked in Korea, I ran, Formosa straits, time to pray.

[vector7]

N Korea says may retain nukes even if US relations normalised

North Korean participants stand by portraits of North Korean former leader Kim Il Sung, left, and his son and current leader Kim Jong Il during a mass rally in Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang. (AP)

By AFP on Saturday, January 17, 2009

North Korea said on Saturday it may keep its nuclear weapons even after normalising relations with the United States, staking out a tough position three days before President-elect Barack Obama takes office.

"Even if the DPRK [North Korea]-US diplomatic relations become normalised, our status as a nuclear-armed state will never change as long as the US nuclear threat to us remains, even to the slightest degree," a foreign ministry spokesman said.

The spokesman, quoted by the official Korean Central News Agency, said it was a "miscalculation" for the US to consider normalised ties a reward for the communist state abandoning nuclear weapons.

"What we earnestly desire is not the normalisation of DPRK-US ties but the strengthening of nuclear deterrence in every possible way," the spokesman added.
"We have made nuclear weapons [not] in order... to seek the normalisation of ties with the US or economic assistance but to protect us from US nuclear threats.

"We can live without the normalisation of ties with the US, but we cannot survive without the nuclear deterrence."

Analysts said the North, which in 2007 signed an aid-for-disarmament deal with the US and four regional powers, is trying to ensure it remains a priority for Obama despite his other daunting economic and foreign policy challenges.

On Tuesday Pyongyang, which tested an atomic weapon in October 2006, vowed not to give up its nuclear weapons until the United States drops its "hostile" policy.

It also called for "free field access" to ensure there are no US atomic weapons in South Korea. Seoul and Washington say these were withdrawn in 1991.

"North Korea is saying through these statements to Obama, 'Hey, look! We're here with nuclear weapons in hand. Don't look at Iran or elsewhere but at us first,'" Professor Yang Moo-Jin of the University of North Korean Studies told AFP.

Paik Hak-Soon, of the Sejong Institute think-tank, told Yonhap news agency the statement is "a message from North Korea to Obama that North Korea wants a package deal and a more intense interest from the new US president’.

US Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton said on Tuesday that the Obama administration will pursue a "very aggressive effort" against North Korea's alleged atomic weapons proliferation.

She backed the six-party talks, which began in 2003 and group the two Koreas, the US, China, Russia and Japan, but indicated there could also be bilateral contacts.
Obama has stated his willingness to talk to America's enemies such as North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il.

The 2007 pact calls for the scrapping of nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula in return for energy aid to the North, normalised relations between the North and the United States and Japan and a formal peace pact.

North Korea is disabling its plutonium-producing nuclear plants and has made a declaration of its nuclear activities under the latest uncompleted phase of the pact.
But the last round of six-party talks in December ended in stalemate, with the two sides unable to agree how the North's nuclear declaration should be independently verified. No date has been set for the next round.

Negotiations have not started on the final phase of the pact, which would involve the surrender of weapons and plutonium stockpiles and normalised relations.

[vector7]

Obama will be ‘aggressive’ in denuclearizing the North

Washington plans to hold bilateral and multi-party talks

January 15, 2009

	Hillary Rodham Clinton

The incoming American administration will push forward a “very aggressive effort” to end North Korea’s nuclear arms programs and atomic weapons proliferation, U.S. secretary of state-designate Hillary Rodham Clinton said Tuesday during her confirmation hearing in Washington.

The 61-year-old New York senator told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that the Obama administration, scheduled to be inaugurated on Jan. 20, will deal with all nuclear programs of the communist North through both multilateral and bilateral diplomacy.

“Our goal is to end the North Korean nuclear program - both the plutonium reprocessing program and the highly enriched uranium program, which there is reason to believe exists, although never quite verified,” she said.

Her vision of North Korea policy was much stronger in her written statements provided to Senator Richard Lugar before the hearing.

“The new Administration will pursue direct diplomacy bilaterally and within the Six-Party talks to achieve the complete and verifiable elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs, and an accounting for North Korea’s past plutonium production, uranium enrichment activities, and proliferation activities,” according to the written statement provided to answer Senator Lugar’s questions on the nuclear issue.

“Sanctions should only be lifted based on North Korean performance. If the North Koreans do not meet their obligations, we should move quickly to re-impose sanctions that have been waived, and consider new restrictions, going forward.”

She also made clear the U.S. position that no diplomatic tie will be formed with the North unless the nuclear crisis is resolved.

“Normalized relations will not be possible without the complete and verifiable elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs, and an accounting for North Korea’s past plutonium production, uranium enrichment activities, and proliferation activities,” she said. “We must also continue to address North Korea’s human rights abuses, which must be part of any normalization process.”

The position is expected to raise tension with Pyongyang, which vowed Tuesday that Washington must drop its “hostile” policy and normalize relations as a precondition for giving up nuclear weapons.

In a statement, the North’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said, “We will never do such a thing as showing our nuclear weapons first, even in 100 years, unless the U.S. hostile policy and nuclear threat to the DPRK are fundamentally terminated.” DPRK stands for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

The statement, carried by the North’s Korea Central News Agency, appears to be Pyongyang’s first official message to the incoming Obama administration.

In its New Year’s joint editorial, Pyongyang went easy on the new U.S. administration, refraining from repeating its usual hostility toward Washington. Instead, the North made a new pledge to denuclearize, an apparent sign of willingness to do business with the administration.

Meanwhile, a South Korean team of nuclear experts departed for Beijing yesterday. Team members will visit Pyongyang today to examine unused nuclear fuel rods. “What we will do with the unused fuel rods will be decided later,” said Hwang Joon-kook, Seoul’s No. 2 negotiator for the six-party nuclear disarmament talks, before he boarded a plane. “Further reviews on our inspection outcome and discussions at the six-nation talks should take place before making the final decision.”

[vector7]

Obama and Asia

The new president can't afford to ignore the region.

By NICHOLAS EBERSTADT | From today's Wall Street Journal Asia

Outgoing President George W. Bush faced many challenges -- from September 11 to North Korea's nuclear test -- that his administration never anticipated. President-elect Barack Obama can't see into the future, either. But his team can start to plan for possible problems in an area that he hasn't talked much about: Asia.

It would be smart to start with China. In academia, the business community and governmental circles, the received wisdom is that China's dazzling economic ascent will continue, the current world recession notwithstanding, perhaps for decades. Consequently, the thinking goes, Chinese economic success will be the dominant factor altering the international equation in Asia over the years ahead.

This scenario may indeed turn out to be the case -- but then again, it may not. There are a great many ways in which China might instead "fail." The country's very real, looming demographic troubles and rapidly slowing economy raise concerns of resource shortages or environmental crises. It is not beyond the scope of possibility that China's brittle, authoritarian and increasingly corrupt political system could suddenly unravel. American policy makers must of course deal with China as it is, but they would also be well advised to devote attention to what such seemingly low-probability alternatives for the Chinese future might portend.

The Korean Peninsula is another area where Mr. Obama might get an uncomfortable "surprise." A central question here, of course, is the future of the North Korean state -- a political construct that appears particularly ill-suited for gradual political adjustments or reforms. Pyongyang's success in staving off sudden systemic change thus far does not in itself guarantee continued and indefinite success in this effort.

Big changes in North Korea could raise the specter of dangerous new humanitarian challenges and security threats, including destabilizing refugee flows, military conflict and possible nuclear proliferation. Alternatively, the fall of North Korea could also set the stage for a Korean unification -- an eventuality that might possibly alter Asia very much for the better, just as German unification did in Europe. U.S. policy makers are likely to deal better with sudden change in North Korea if they have thought about the issues it would raise in advance.

Then there is Japan, to which Mr. Obama has paid little, if any, attention. His advisors may think that Tokyo's policy makers will do little more than incrementally tinker with the "Yoshida doctrine" -- whereby Tokyo has implicitly traded its right to self-defense for U.S. military protection for over half a century. Yet Japanese international policy in the past has tended to make sudden, and monumental, shifts -- and the current gap between Japan's economic might and her instruments of international influence is perhaps more conspicuous than for any other major actor in the contemporary international arena. The current Liberal Democratic Party coalition, too, looks weak, and for the first time in over a decade, may be voted out of office.

It's not beyond the realm of possibility that Japan might suddenly arrive at a national consensus to make the leap at last to being a "normal nation": a country unashamed of identifying its national interests, and willing moreover to defend these interests. How would such a seismic shift affect Asia -- and the American security architecture in Asia?

Mr. Obama and his team will have to address immediate foreign-policy challenges, such as Israel's conflict with Hamas, India-Pakistan tensions and the looming specter of a soon-to-be nuclear Iran. But that shouldn't stop him from planning for problems elsewhere. Asia hasn't figured much on Mr. Obama's agenda so far. Changing that now may stave off bigger problems in the future.

[vector7]

Seoul goes on alert after sharp talk by Pyongyang

January 19, 2009

	A North Korean military spokesman threatened “all out confrontation posture” against the South on Saturday in a TV statement. [YONHAP]

South Korea heightened its military readiness over the weekend following a North Korean threat to take “an all-out confrontational posture.”

In a statement broadcast through the communist country’s state-run TV network on Saturday, a North Korean military spokesman said, “Now that traitor Lee Myung-Bak and his group opted for confrontation ... our revolutionary armed forces are compelled to take an all-out confrontational posture to shatter them.”

The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff said yesterday that the nation’s troops were ordered to intensify their combat readiness starting at 6 p.m. the day before. The heightened alert was the first since Oct. 9, 2006 when North Korea tested a nuclear weapon.

Dressed in a military uniform, a spokesman for the chief of the General Staff of the North’s Korean People’s Army said that the country will “preserve” the sea border in the Yellow Sea, hinting at a possible sea skirmish in the waters near the Northern Limit Line, a de facto maritime demarcation line between the two Koreas.

In 1999 and 2002, two inter-Korean naval skirmishes flared in the Yellow Sea.

Military and intelligence sources said the possibility of an armed provocation by the North, however, is unlikely. They said that the two previous incidents have made the North aware of the South Korean Navy’s superior capabilities.

“As we have issued the military alert against the North, all commanders have readied their units,” said Park Seong-wu, public affairs chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. “As of now, no abnormal activity by the North Korean military has been detected.”

“We have increased surveillance of the North and strengthened patrols along the border,” said a Defense Ministry official. “We have also requested the U.S.-South Korea Combined Forces Command to collect more intelligence on the North.”

The Blue House held an emergency meeting on Saturday but reacted calmly. Sources at the Unification Ministry and the National Intelligence Service said the North’s statement exhibits Pyongyang’s frustration about the Lee Myung-bak administration’s hard-line policy. “If we are jolted by the North’s statement or start an internal debate over how to react, we will be playing into Pyongyang’s hand,” an official in Seoul said.

Meanwhile, the North also declared that it may retain its nuclear weapons even after it forms diplomatic ties with the United States.

“Normalization of diplomatic relations and the nuclear issue are entirely different issues,” a spokesman for the North’s foreign ministry said Saturday.

“We can live without normalized relations with the United States but can’t live without nuclear deterrence. That is the reality of Korea today,” he said.


By Ser Myo-ja Staff Reporter/ Kim Min-seok JoongAng Ilbo [myoja@joongang.co.kr]

[vector7]

Expect N.Korea challenge, Bush aide advises Obama

Wed Jan 14, 2009 9:13pm EST



SCENARIOS: The North Korea problem awaiting Obama

By Paul Eckert, Asia Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The incoming Barack Obama administration should be ready for early challenges from North Korea as it tries to test Obama and sunder the six-party talks over the North's nuclear ambitions, President George W. Bush's top Asia adviser said on Wednesday.

Dennis Wilder, senior adviser for Asia on the National Security Council, also said doubts remained about the health of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, despite recent efforts to show that he had recovered from a suspected stroke last August.

"The North's best act is to try to create the conditions of crisis in order to renegotiate with the United States and the new team will have to be ready for that," he told reporters and scholars at a Washington think tank.

"Part of the North's goal will be to see if they can split this five-party consortium that has been created," said Wilder of talks in which China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the United States have tried to convince North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions in exchange for aid and diplomatic benefits.

Any renewed North Korean brinkmanship would also be designed to "see just what the new leader of the United States is made of," he added. Obama takes office on January 20.

Wilder welcomed remarks by U.S. Secretary of State-designate Hillary Clinton on Tuesday in which she backed the six-party talks.
"It is a framework that the president-elect and I believe has merit but it also provides an opportunity ... for bilateral contact as well between North Korea and the United States," Clinton said at her Senate confirmation hearing.

DOUBTS ABOUT KIM'S HEALTH
Wilder told the Nixon Center that keeping the six-party format was critical in ensuring China stays involved in the nuclear issue as Pyongyang tries to "reduce the six-party element of this process" in favor of talks with Washington.

Prodding China, the country with the most leverage on Pyongyang, to move from passive observer to active participant after the nuclear crisis with North Korea erupted in 2002 was a hard-won gain that should not be squandered, he said.

"The Chinese would be happy if we let them off the playing field and back onto the bleachers. I don't think that's in our interest. I don't think it's in Northeast Asia's interest," said Wilder.

Under the six-party talks, North Korea in 2005 agreed to abandon all its nuclear programs. However, Pyongyang tested a nuclear device in 2006 and has since dragged its feet on carrying out agreements on disabling its plutonium program.

North Korean state media have repeatedly shown photographs of leader Kim Jong-il meeting soldiers and attending concerts -- public outings believed designed to show Kim was in full command after the suspected stroke in August.

But Wilder said the North had shown only still photos and no video footage of the reclusive Kim, indicating there may still be questions in Pyongyang about his long-term viability.

"That suggests to me that there are some physical signs of his health crisis that they are unwilling to put out there," he said.

(Editing by Anthony Boadle)
© Thomson Reuters 2009 All rights reserved

[vector7]

S. Korea Seeks To Buy Older Apaches

By JUNG SUNG-KI
Published: 16 Jan 11:30 EST (16:30 GMT)

SEOUL - South Korea's arms procurement agency has been in close consultation with the U.S. government to purchase 36 refurbished Apache attack helicopters to deploy in 2012, when South Korean commanders take over wartime operational control of their troops from the U.S. military, a source said Jan. 14.

The Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) wants to receive the first batch of 18 Block II Apache Longbow models modified from the Block I standard in 2012, and the second batch of the older units, dubbed MIMEX, in 2014, said the source privy to negotiations.

In a related move, the agency plans to start a feasibility study this month on the acquisition of Apaches, he said.

The moves follow U.S. Forces Korea (USFK)'s announcement in November that it will pull a fleet of 24 Apache helicopters out of the Korean Peninsula in March for rotational deployment to Iraq or Afghanistan this fall.

Public jitters have grown here since then over a possible security vacuum, as the U.S. Apache units are in charge of key missions to deter North Korean armored units in case of war.

"I heard that DAPA's international product team is receptive to the U.S. Army Apache program manager meeting with DAPA and also with JUSMAG-K, and that there is strong interest in 18 MIMEX in 2012 and 18 more in 2014,'' the source said on condition of anonymity.

JUSMAG-K refers to the Joint U.S. Military Affairs Group-Korea, which coordinates South Korean purchases of U.S. weapons through the Pentagon's government-to-government Foreign Military Sales program.
The DAPA has shown interest in Block II models, so the U.S. government may want Boeing to do the upgrade, he said.

The source, however, said the agency was still "keeping all options open," including the introduction of the up-to-date AH-64D Apache Longbow heavy attack helicopters through a commercial deal with Boeing, given the proposed refurbishment would cost more than buying new models.

"I'm sure the ROK Army wants the latest and greatest, but also wants capability fast. It also must be affordable. These are the issues,'' he said.
To help boost the Army's independent anti-tank and fire support capabilities after the wartime control transition, South Korea has pushed to buy the older Apaches, separately from the Korea Attack Helicopter project aimed at building an indigenous helicopter with technological support from foreign helicopter manufacturers.

Last year, the two governments opened negotiations over the MIMEX program, with the United States offering for sale about 260 Block I Apaches available for upgrades, according to the JUSMAG-K.

South Korea proposed that the U.S. government sell 36 second-hand Apaches for about 1 trillion won ($744 million), and said later that it would make a final decision as late as August, according to JUSMAG-K officials.

The Apache Longbow is armed with AGM-114 Hellfire air-to-surface missiles, AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles and Hydra 70 laser-guided rockets.

Their main missions are to help prevent North Korean special forces from infiltrating the South by sea and neutralize North Korean armored units crossing the military demarcation line in case of war.

The USFK maintains two Apache battalions here.

On Jan. 12, U.S. and South Korean military officials announced that 12 F-16 fighter jets would temporarily replace the departing Apache battalion.

Previously, the USFK said 12 A-10 attack aircraft would replace the Apaches' air-to-ground and close-air-support missions.

Col. Mike Chandler, chief of staff of the U.S. 7th Air Force, said the change of plans was due to "a structural issue'' with the A-10's airframe.

"The air-to-ground mission and the close-air-support mission are primarily to support the soldiers on the ground,'' Chandler said. "Helicopters, the A-10 platform and the F-16 platform are all capable of performing that mission."
Despite USFK's explanations, critics here say the "flip-flop" could cause a security vacuum due to different mission capabilities between Apaches and F-16s.

Some experts say F-16s are outstanding performers but not well suited for conducting missions against enemy tanks at low air speeds and altitude. They also speculate the F-16 deployment signals USFK's mission shift to an air- and naval-centric support of South Korean troops after the transition to wartime operational control in 2012.

"The F-16's combat-proven record is well known and will provide an enhanced deterrent capability on the Korean Peninsula," USFK Commander Gen. Walter Sharp said in a press release. "This deployment also increases Republic of Korea-United States training opportunities, which further strengthens Combined Forces Command's ability to defeat any North Korean aggression."

According to the release, the F-16 is a multirole fighter capable of conducting a broad range of missions, including close air support, precision strike and counter-air.

[vector7]

Jan 13, 2009
US to deploy F-16s in S.Korea

SEOUL - THE United States on Tuesday announced a plan to deploy a dozen F-16 jet fighters in South Korea as a replacement for Apache attack helicopters being withdrawn from the country.

The US forces in Korea said in a statement the F-16s would arrive here before the attack helicopters move out in March.

General Walter Sharp, commander of 28,500 American troops in South Korea, said the planned replacement will 'further strengthen Combined Forces Command's ability to defeat any North Korean aggression.'

South Korea has remained technically at war with North Korea since the 1950-1953 conflict ended only in an armistice and not a full peace pact.

US military authorities had previously announced that a battalion of 24 AH-64 Apache Longbow helicopters, to move from here to Iraq and Afghanistan, would be replaced with a dozen A-10 anti-tank aircraft.

But they decided to send a dozen F-16s instead 'due to increased requirements for inspections and repairs' to the A-10s.

Nato and US commanders have made repeated calls for more helicopters to be deployed in Afghanistan, where US President-elect Barack Obama has promised to intensify military operations to stem a growing insurgency. -- AFP

[vector7]

Jan 17, 2009
Smart power play in Pyongyang
By Donald Kirk

SEOUL - The United States and South Korea will face a period of testing early in Barack Obama's presidency, with severe disagreements likely on the critical issues of North Korea as well as trade.

While incoming secretary of state
Hillary Clinton applauds the idea of both six-party and bilateral negotiations, North Korea is reverting to one of the oldest demands in its nuclear playbook, that of reciprocity on verification.

The North Korean logic is that as long as others demand verification of claims to have stripped down the nuclear complex at Yongbyon, then South Korea should open up to full inspection of all military facilities to prove it, too, is nuclear-free.

North Korea advanced this notion in a statement calling for "denuclearization of the whole Korean Peninsula … in a verifiable manner", just as the North has been demanding since the talks that led South and North to get together on a joint declaration on denuclearization concluded at the end of 1991.

The United States, years before the signing of that declaration, had hundreds of nuclear warheads in South Korea - and had still more on board some of the vessels that called at South Korean ports. Then, in 1991, according to a survey in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, then-president George H W Bush "ordered the removal of all remaining weapons, which was accomplished in late 1991". [1]

The purpose of the order was to pave the way for the denuclearization agreement and reassure North Korea even as the North revved up its own nuclear program. In six-party talks over the past four or five years, North Korea has alternated between muting and raising the issue - and even suggested the US abandon nuclear weapons on warships at sea as a condition for finally giving up its own program.

South Korea might call the North Korean bluff by agreeing, yes, please send inspectors and we'll show them we have no nukes, but there's no way the North would agree. Instead, South Korea's Foreign Ministry has said the North Korean demand "distorts the fundamental fact of the situation".

Now the question is whether Clinton's team can do any better than did the previous one under Condoleezza Rice, by pursuing what she calls "smart power" rather than the "cowboy diplomacy" of the administration of President George W Bush.

Tempting though it may be to see the verbiage as a cover for no real change in US policy, at least one observer forecasts sweeping shifts. That would be Kim Dae-jung, who initiated the "Sunshine" policy of reconciliation with North Korea during his presidency from 1998 to 2003.

DJ, as he is still widely known, has never forgiven Bush for embarrassing him during their first meeting at the White House in March 2001 by expressing "skepticism" about Kim Jong-il and asking why he should make a deal with no guarantee of "verification". Then, in his State of the Union address in January 2002, Bush compounded the offense, as far as DJ was concerned, by lumping North Korea in an "axis of evil" extending to Iran and Iraq.

DJ clearly does not believe that Bush's outlook changed a lot during his second term, despite unreserved US support for six-party talks that resulted in agreement by North Korea nearly two years ago to give up its nuclear program. Hope lies, he believes, in Obama's willingness to pick up where Hillary's husband, Bill, left off as president before Bush took over eight years ago.

"Unlike the hardline policy of the Bush administration," said DJ, talking to foreign correspondents, "the Obama administration is expected to take a different approach in dealing with North Korea."
The Obama people, DJ predicted, are "likely to move down the path of direct dialogue and package deals” similar to those that Bill Clinton had espoused. DJ did not say so, but presumably he was referring especially to the 1994 Geneva framework agreement that blew apart in late 2002 two years after DJ won the Nobel Peace Prize after going to Pyongyang for the first inter-Korean summit in June 2000.

DJ's main message was that Obama should waste no time giving "priority to resolving the nuclear issue" after his inauguration. "The resolution of the North Korean issue is likely to strengthen momentum for the eventual denuclearization of Iran," he argued.

Nor did he see much point in haggling over North Korean demands. "Let's give North Korea what they need and take what we need," said DJ, claiming as "indisputable fact" that Kim Jong-il "aspires to improve North Korea's relationship with the United States." The final goal: "To encourage North Korea to pursue openness and reform and become a second China or a second Vietnam."

The clear implication of DJ's remarks was that Obama, having said during his campaign that he would be glad to hold dialogue with leaders of countries with which the US has problems, should go along with North Korea's desire to open diplomatic relations with the US - yet another condition on which North Korea insists as a precondition for getting rid of its nuclear warheads.

Two complications, however, may slow down the process. One is that power may be shifting in North Korea. Kim Jong-il's physical condition remains highly uncertain despite frequent attempts to show he's in good health in photographs of visits to factories, farms and military units, but he's never seen in motion.

It hardly seems coincidental, considering the Dear Leader's uncertain grip on life, if not power, that reports are spreading that he's earmarked his third son, 25-year-old Kim Jong-un, as his anointed successor.

Yonhap, the South Korean news agency, carried a lengthy report quoting seemingly authoritative sources as saying that Kim Jong-il, incapacitated mentally as well as physically in the aftermath of a stroke, had decided the Swiss-educated Kim Jong-un, son of Kim's third wife, who died five years ago, was better qualified than either his second son, deemed "effeminate", or his eldest, seen as spoiled and overly Western in his tastes.

Kim Dae-jung predicted that whichever son takes power would be a "symbolic" leader while a coterie of men elevated to high cabinet and party posts would coordinate in a kind of collective rule.
The Obama administration, waiting out the results of North Korea's succession struggle, also is anxious not to get on the wrong side of South Korea's conservative president, Lee Myung-bak. Lee has staked his prestige on confronting North Korea on controversial issues that DJ avoided, notably the human rights of millions of North Koreans who have been jailed, persecuted and, in thousands of cases, tortured to death or executed, often in public.

Obama - and Hillary Clinton - may have to deal with the hypersensitive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) concluded by US and South Korean negotiators well before Lee Myung-bak became president. Lee has been pressing for ratification of the agreement by the South's fractious, and sometimes violent, National Assembly. Although dominated by like-minded conservatives, the assembly's minority, including politicians loyal to DJ, have been trying to prevent the agreement from coming up for a vote.

The opposition of South Korean farmers to the agreement, which they say will let in a flood of imported goods, is similar to that of US motor vehicle workers, who say they'll lose jobs while very few - if any - American cars will be sold in South Korea.

Both Obama and Clinton have called for revisions that will guarantee increased motor vehicle exports to Korea, but South Korean officials say they're not open for new negotiations on a deal reached following one and a half years of very difficult US-Korean talks.

The view among many observers here is that the FTA will have to wait for a long time before it even comes up in US Congress. Nor is anybody taking odds on North Korea ever giving up its nuclear program despite Kim Dae-jung's plea "to get back on the right track before it is too late".

Note
1. Norris, Robert S, and Hans M Kristensen, "“Nuclear Notebook: North Korea's nuclear program, 2005," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2005.

Journalist Donald Kirk has been covering Korea - and the confrontation of forces in Northeast Asia - for more than 30 years.

Copyright 2009 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd. All rights reserved.

[vector7]

Nuclear news heightens fears over tough-talking N Korea

Posted Mon Jan 19, 2009 11:00am AEDT
Updated Mon Jan 19, 2009 12:22pm AEDT

North Korea's military is warning the South to keep in line.


North Korea's military is warning the South to keep in line. (AFP)

Its military parades may be predictable and synchronised, but North Korea's brand of public diplomacy is anything but.

And over the weekend, Pyongyang pulled another surprise, with a senior member of the Korean People's Army joint chiefs of staff appearing on state television.

A uniformed member of the military bobbing up on TV is unusual, and he delivered a message dripping with menace.

Accusing South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and his government of pushing for confrontation, the North's spokesman vowed his country would respond by taking an all-out confrontational posture to shatter the South.

He also warned that strong military measures will follow from the North's armed forces.

At issue here is the passage of South Korean ships into disputed waters of the Yellow Sea, a quarrel which triggered naval skirmishes between the two sides in 1999 and 2002.

In response to Pyongyang's threat, South Korea has put its military on alert along its land and sea borders.

North Korea watchers say this is a worrisome development, but with Barack Obama to be sworn in as US President this week, it could all be just elaborate posturing by Pyongyang to set up a negotiating position on its nuclear program.

The sabre-rattling came shortly after an American scholar returned from a visit to Pyongyang, revealing that North Korean officials told him that they had enough plutonium for four or five nuclear bombs.

US scholar and North Korea expert Selig Harrison says in Pyongyang he was told by regime officials that they had "weaponised" 31 kilograms of plutonium.

"It does change the game and it's going to make it a much more difficult negotiation than it looked like before this," he said.

Mr Harrison's admission, and the appearance of a senior military official on North Korean TV, both raise new questions about who is doing the day-to-day running of the communist state.

With Kim Jong-Il suffering a stroke last year and struggling with reported heart and diabetes troubles, Mr Harrison believes the Dear Leader has loosened his grip on the affairs of state.

"People I talked to have many indications that some important things are submitted to him, but he is not working in the way he used to before," he said.

Which all means the new Obama Administration will face an even more unpredictable regime in Pyongyang.

Based on a report by North Asia correspondent Mark Willacy, first aired on AM on January 19, 2009.

[vector7]

US warns of N Korea nuclear intent

By Andrew Ward, Edward Luce and Demetri Sevastopulo in,Washington

Published: January 19 2009 02:00 | Last updated: January 19 2009 02:00

North Korea might have continued to engage in uranium enrichment activities in spite of its pledge to give up all nuclear weapons prog-rammes, according to the outgoing US national security adviser.

Stephen Hadley urged tough questions over highly enriched uranium (HEU), while encouraging Barack Obama, the president-elect, to keep faith with the six-party framework to deal with North Korea.

"We strongly believe that there is an undetermined amount of highly enriched uranium in North Korea," Mr Hadley told the Financial Times. "It got there either because it was manufactured there or because it was imported - we don't know which. But either way, it's got to be explained."

North Korea has had a plutonium-based nuclear programme for more than two decades and tested its first nuclear device in 2006, but the US believes the secretive country has also tried to develop a second, uranium-based programme.

Without giving details, Mr Hadley said there was evidence that Pyongyang had continued to experiment with HEU since the US first confronted Kim Jong-il's regime over the issue in 2002. "That, of course, gives us real concern," he said.

He predicted that Pyongyang would seek fresh bilateral talks with the new administration but argued that the six-party process still offered the best chance of a lasting settlement. The administration of George W. Bush launched the six-party talks - involving the US, North and South Korea, China, Japan and Russia - in 2003 to apply multilateral pressure on Pyongyang.

North Korea agreed in 2005 to denuclearise in return for economic and political incentives but progress towards concluding the deal has been slow.

Mr Hadley's remarks came days after Mr Bush, the outgoing president, voiced renewed concern over North Korea's suspected HEU programme at his farewell press conference.

However, the possible existence of an HEU programme in North Korea remains a source of intense debate in intelligence circles. Michael McConnell, director of national intelligence, on Friday said the US -intelligence community's consensus view - that it believes with "moderate" confidence that North Korea had an active HEU programme - had not changed.

Some critics of Mr Bush have suggested that the White House is highlighting fears over HEU before leaving office to justify its decision to confront North Korea in 2002 - a move that led to the collapse of a Clinton-era agreement that had frozen Pyongyang's more advanced plutonium programme.

Over the past year, the US has downplayed concerns about HEU as it focused on getting Pyongyang to disclose and verify its plutonium programme. In recent weeks, however, government scientists have determined that particles found on documents and aluminium tubes received from North Korea as part of the verification process contained HEU.

However, there has been considerable debate about the significance of the particles and about intelligence analysis dating it to three and a half years. A senior official told the FT that the timeframe did not represent a "smoking gun".

Mr Hadley added that the election of a black president with a multicultural background had increased faith in US democracy around the world.

"It was a convincing display that . . . contrary to the view of many, our democracy and electoral process was not a sham," he said.

[vector7]

Briefing: North Korea promises strong military measures

Pioneer Press
Updated: 01/17/2009 07:37:33 PM CST

SEOUL, South Korea — The North Korean military declared an 'all-out confrontational posture' against South Korea on Saturday as an American scholar said he had been told by North Korean officials that the North had 'weaponized' enough plutonium for four to six nuclear bombs. South Korea ordered its military to heighten vigilance along the border, said a South Korean military spokesman.

What made the threat Saturday unusual — and more worrisome to some analysts — was the way it was delivered: in a statement read on North Korean television by a uniformed colonel. 'Strong military measures will follow from our revolutionary armed force,' the colonel said, according to Yonhap, South Korea's national news agency. Usually the North Korean government issues written statements.