Final Countdown - North Korea

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Nuclear War It Is: If Attacked, North Korea to Use Nukes

June 9, 2009

We'll strike back mercilessly

SEOUL - NORTH Korea said on Tuesday it would use its nuclear weapons both to defend itself and to carry out a reprisal for any attack by its enemies.

The communist country would answer any pre-emptive strike with 'an advanced pre-emptive strike' of its own, the cabinet newspaper Minju Joson said.

The nuclear deterrent would be a strong tool to protect regional peace and carry out a 'just retaliatory strike' which would be 'merciless' on those who infringe on its dignity and sovereignty, it said.

The communist party daily Rodong Sinmun carried a similar warning in a commentary on Tuesday, 15 days after the North carried out its second nuclear test.

'It is the revolutionary spirit of the army and people and the mode of counter-action for self-defence to decisively wipe out the aggressors, reacting to the enemy's high-handed acts with the toughest measures and its pre-emptive attack with the advanced pre-emptive strikes of Korean style,' it said.

'The US imperialists had better give up their war gambling as it would only invite their self-destruction.' International efforts to negotiate an end to the North's nuclear programmes stalled in December and virtually collapsed in early April when the North launched a long-range rocket.

After the UN Security Council censured the launch, the North announced it was quitting the six-nation talks and restarting a programme to make weapons-grade plutonium.

It followed up with a nuclear test and has also launched six short-range missiles, renounced the truce which ended the 1950-1953 Korean War and threatened possible attacks on the South.

The North is now said to be preparing to test-launch an intercontinental ballistic missile as well as several medium-range missiles. -- AFP

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North Korea Issues New Warning

By VOA News
09 June 2009

North Korea says it will use its nuclear weapons both to defend itself and as an offense against those who seek to attack the country.

An editorial published Tuesday in North Korea's state-run Minju Joson newspaper says its nuclear arsenal will be a strong deterrent against any enemies, and will also be used to carry out what it called a "merciless offensive" against those who violate the country's dignity and sovereignty.

The latest threats from the reclusive communist nation came as the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council - the United States, Britain, France, China and Russia - met with Japanese and South Korean officials to negotiate a new resolution in response to Pyongyang's recent nuclear test.

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice said after Tuesday's meeting that the parties are making progress in their negotiations and a new resolution is expected "relatively soon." She declined to say when negotiations will conclude or what proposals are under consideration.

Measures under discussion reportedly include new restrictions on North Korea's trade and financial dealings with the outside world, as well as an expanded arms embargo and tighter inspections of its ship-based cargo.

U.S. officials have indicated that Washington may also impose unilateral financial sanctions against North Korea.

Late Monday, a top U.S. intelligence official said North Korea's recent nuclear test and missile launches, and its political situation are "a potentially dangerous mixture."

Last week, media reports said North Korean leader Kim Jong Il had named his youngest son, 26-year-old Kim Jong Un, as his successor. Kim Jong Il has ruled the country since taking over from his father, Kim Il Sung, in 1994.

In a separate development, Russia's Interfax news agency quoted a Russian foreign ministry official as saying there are indications that North Korea is preparing to launch another missile, following a series of recent missile launches.

[American Patriot]

More breaking news.

FNC is reporting North Korea is preparing another nuclear test.

[Toad]

More breaking news.

FNC is reporting North Korea is preparing another nuclear test.

I saw that, and S. Korea is moving significant additional troops to the border.

[American Patriot]

Anything more? I can't find CRAP about it... grrrr

[American Patriot]

S.Korea sends more troops to N.Korea border

5 hours ago

SEOUL (AFP) — South Korea has sent hundreds more Marines to its tense border with North Korea, military officials said on Friday as world powers prepared to punish the communist state for its nuclear test.

US intelligence officials believe Pyongyang will respond to the UN Security Council resolution with a third atomic test, according to sources quoted by American TV networks.

More Marines were sent last week to two islands along the disputed Yellow Sea border, the scene of bloody naval battles in 1999 and 2002, a Marine Corps source told AFP.

He gave no figures but Yonhap news agency said more than 600 had been sent to Yeonpyeong and Baekryeong islands to reinforce the present garrisons.

The North followed up its second nuclear test on May 25 by launching short-range missiles, renouncing the armistice on the Korean peninsula and threatening possible attacks on its neighbour.

It is also pressuring South Korean firms at the Kaesong joint industrial estate north of the border -- the last reconciliation project between the two nations -- by demanding huge rent and wage increases.

Fox News said US intelligence officials have warned President Barack Obama that the North would respond to the UN resolution with another nuclear test. South Korea's defence ministry said this was a possibility.

The Security Council was to meet at 11:00 am (1500 GMT) Friday for a likely vote on a draft sanctions resolution agreed by its five permanent members -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- plus Japan and South Korea.

The text calls on UN member states to slap biting sanctions on North Korea.

They include tougher inspections of cargo suspected of containing banned missile- or nuclear-related items, a tighter arms embargo with the exception of light weapons and new financial restrictions.

Passage is a foregone conclusion after more than two weeks of intensive bargaining.

US ambassador to the UN Susan Rice has said the resolution will signal that North Korea "must pay a price, return without conditions to a process of negotiation and that the consequences they will face are significant."

In addition to its nuclear confrontation the North is bitterly at odds with South Korea's conservative administration, which rolled back the "sunshine" engagement policy followed by previous liberal governments.

On Thursday the North demanded that South Korean firms in Kaesong raise wages for its 40,000 workers to 300 dollars a month from around 75 dollars currently.

It also called for an increase in rent for the Seoul-funded estate to 500 million dollars, compared to the current 16 million dollars for a 50-year contract.

Shocked factory bosses on Friday rejected the demands, saying they already face "unbearable operational losses" due to the soured cross-border relations.

"The Kaesong industrial zone, which was born from the desire for national reconciliation and co-prosperity, now faces a critical moment because of political tensions," the 106 firms at the estate said in a joint statement.

Analysts said they were unsure whether Pyongyang's real aim is to shut down Kaesong or whether it is still open to negotiation.

The impoverished North received 26 million dollars from South Korean firms last year in wages, which are paid to state entities and not to the workforce.

Some analysts say it may be willing to forgo the cash because it fears the effects of exposing its workers to the South Korean lifestyle.

"By making a demand which the South finds hard to accept, Pyongyang seems to be moving to shut down Kaesong, holding the South Korean government responsible for the closure," Yang Moo-Jin of Seoul's University of North Korean Studies told AFP.

At Thursday's meeting Seoul again raised the case of a South Korean manager at Kaesong who has been detained by the North since March 30, but failed to gain access to him.

The man was held for allegedly criticising the North's political system and trying to persuade a female worker to defect.

Pyongyang is separately holding two US women journalists detained along its border on March 17 while researching a story.

They were sentenced Monday to 12 years of "reform through labour" for what state media called an illegal border crossing and an unspecified "grave crime."

[American Patriot]

The disputed sea border was the scene of bloody clashes between North and South Korea in 1999 and 2002

[American Patriot]

Sanctions just approved by UN against DPRK...

[American Patriot]

The Abbreviated North Korean timeline
June 11, 9:48 PM · Add a Comment
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The Demilitarized Zone, South Korea, AP Photo/ Lee Jin-man

The Abbreviated North Korean timeline unveils a clear behavioral pattern of fractured quid pro quos. Whenever North Korea has found itself in some calamity or another, it’s “Dear Leader,” Kim Jong-il rattles his saber and stomps his feet and the U.S. and other countries have provided everything from food to oil in exchange for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) abandoning its nuclear weapons program.

Note: This is an ABBREVIATED timeline that follows the beginnings of the DPRK, then moves to more recent times. It is not meant to be construed as the entire timeline. Space limitations prevent a full and complete timeline.

The DPRK do stop, make promises, but when the next calamity appears, they fire up the nuke plants again, and the give and take—mostly take in North Korea’s case—results in saber rattling and threat-laden posturing begins anew—until now.

The best place to start in trying to understand this roguish and hermitic nation is with its history since World War II. During that war, the Japanese occupied Korea, and once they were pushed out, the Soviets controlled North Korea and the U.S., South Korea.

In 1946, North Korea's Communist Party, installed by the Soviets, was the Korean Workers' Party (KWP). The country dubbed itself the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, a name to which the North still lays claim today.

In 1950, South Korea declared its independence, and that prompted the DPRK to invade its southern sibling to commence the Korean War.

Two millions lives later, an armistice was signed in 1953, but it represented an end only to hostilities. To this day, the North and South are still in a de facto state of war and separated by the demilitarized zone (DMZ), a no man’s land across which both sides tensely watch each other.

To help maintain the peace after the Armistice, the United States deployed a sizeable force of U.S. soldiers that has shrunk year after year to meet the growing needs for U.S. troops elsewhere. There are at latest count, 28,500 troops in South Korea and another 50,000 in Japan that could be quickly deployed to the Korean peninsula if needed.

In 1996, floods caused a drought that in turn resulted in catastrophic food shortages. Kim Jong-il's response was to declare that North Korea would no longer abide by the terms of the armistice and sent men into the demilitarized zone.

In 1998, the U.N. brought in food and other relief supplies to the starving nation.

Instead of complying with the 1996 no-nuke pledge, Abdul Qadeer Khan, the man who engineered Pakistan’s membership in ClubNuke, later admitted to helping North Korea get on the right road to achieving its nuclear goals.

Despite minor military skirmishes between North and South Korea, it was clear that the South was prospering and the North the poor cousin, there were occasional discussions about reunification that led nowhere.

In 2000, a summit was held in Pyongyang. Kim Jong-il and met with South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and the DPRK stopped its anti-South Korea propaganda broadcasts it had been airing and it looked as if rapprochement might be possible. For a brief period, family members cleaved apart by the DMZ were allowed to reunite.

But in June of 2002, a brief naval battle between North and South occurred in the Yellow Sea, scuttling any more talk about reunification. Thirty North Korean and four South Korean sailors are lost in the battle.

Having completely abandoned his promise to “denuclearize,” Kim-Jong-il starts rattling his the nuclear weapons again in October of 2002. The U.S, responds by telling the world that Kim-Jong-Il has fallen off the nuclear wagon again, the U.S., under President George W. Bush, cuts oil shipments to North Korea. In retaliation, North Korea says he'll plug the Yongbyon reactor back in and he then tosses international inspectors out of the country.

Unable to keep himself from engaging in the outrageous, Kim Jong-Il announces in January 2003 that North Korea is withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In April, the U.S., China and North Korea sit down in Beijing to try to determine what North Koreas’ nuclear intentions are. In July, DPRK announces it has enough plutonium to make nuclear weapons.

Under pressure from the U.N. and its northern neighbor, China, the six-party talks begin in August 2003. Included are the U.S., China, Russia, South Korea, North Korea and Japan. They meet to discuss the need for DPRK to cease its nuclear program. Talks essentially go nowhere. In October, Pyongyang boasts that is has processed enough nuclear fuel rods to make six nuclear devices.

In June of 2004, there is another round of six-party talks, which, like the first, ends without consensus. They are to meet again in September, but North Korea pulls out of the discussions.

In a not unexpected announcement, Pyongyang announces in February 2005 that it has built nuclear weapons for self-defense. With things getting a bit too real for all concerned, another round of six-party talks take place in September, and this time bears fruit, but it’s fermented. DPRK needs more aid, so it offers to scuttle its weapons if the other five nations will guarantee its security, and it wants another civilian nuclear reactor.

While the five other nations discuss that, in July 2006, Pyongyang tests one long-range and several short-range missiles. Claiming that the long-range rocket, the Taepodong-2 could hit Alaska and potentially California, it slams into the ground in a heap right after it takes off. While the missile tests result in international outrage, it’s trumped in October by DPRK's first test of a nuclear weapon. This creates an uproar and must mean that Kim Jong-Il needs something.

In February 2007, the six-nation talks begin again, and surprise, North Korea will shut down its main reactor in exchange for fuel. In June, the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors are permitted to reenter the country to inspect the Yongbyon reactor. In July, they confirm that the reactor has been shut down. In August, devastating floods immerse North Korea in trouble again, and they appeal for aid. Ostensibly acting in good faith, Pyongyang announces it will shut down all nuclear facilities and file a report of their nuclear program by the end of the year. In addition, the North and South discuss formally ending the war. It fails to make the deadline, and China steps in and tells it to carry out its commitments.

Lee Myung-bak, a new conservative president, is elected in South Korea, and ties further aid to the North on complete nuclear disarmament and improvement in human rights.

In March and April of 2008, relations between the two nations sour. North Korea tests short-range missiles and accuses the South of sending a warship into DPRK’s waters. In June, six months late, North Korea finally releases its list of nuclear assets. Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice and Foreign Minister Pak Ui-chun hold face-to-face talks on Pyongyang’s continuing disarmament.

North Korea says the U.S. is not doing its part its part in supplying oil and aid and threatens to switch on the Yongbyon reactor. In October, as a gesture of good will, the U.S. scratches DPRK’s name from the list of countries that support terrorism if the country will provide full access to all nuclear sites.

2008 October - The US removes North Korea from its list of countries which sponsor terrorism, in return for Pyongyang agreeing to provide full access to its nuclear sites.

2008 November - North Korea says it will cut off all overland travel to and from the South from December, and blames South Korea for pursuing a confrontational policy.

2008 December - Pyongyang says it will slow down work to dismantle its nuclear programme in response to a US decision to suspend energy aid. The US move came following the breakdown of international talks to end the country's nuclear activities.

Nuclear tensions rise

2009 January - North Korea says it is scrapping all military and political deals with the South, accusing Seoul of "hostile intent".

2009 April - North Korea launches a rocket carrying what it says is a communications satellite; its neighbours accuse it of testing long-range missile technology. After criticism of the launch from the UN Security Council, North Korea walks out of the international six-party talks.

Kim Jong-il attends parliamentary vote to re-elect him leader, in his first major state appearance since a suspected stroke in 2008.

2009 May - North Korea says it successfully carries out an underground nuclear test, its second ever, drawing protests from the US, China and Russia.

It also announces that it no longer considers itself bound by the terms of the 1953 truce that ended the war between the two Koreas.

[American Patriot]

Value of N. Korea Sanctions Disputed
International Curbs After '06 Explosion Seen as Ineffective

By Blaine Harden
Washington Post Foreign Service
Friday, June 12, 2009

TOKYO, June 11 -- As the United Nations moves this week to sanction North Korea for its second nuclear test, there is strong evidence that a previous international squeeze did not work.

Thanks to booming business with neighboring China, North Korea's overseas trade has grown substantially since the U.N. Security Council imposed punitive sanctions after the government of Kim Jong Il exploded its first nuclear device in 2006.

Trade volume rose last year to its highest level since 1990, when a far more prosperous and less isolated North Korea was heavily subsidized by the Soviet Union, according to an analysis by the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, a government-funded organization in Seoul.

North Korean exports surged 23 percent last year, compared with the previous year, and imports jumped 33 percent, the agency said. It found that China's share of overseas trade with the North is soaring, up from 33 percent in 2003 to 73 percent last year.

The Security Council sanctions have had "no perceptible effect" on North Korea's trade with its largest partners, according to another study by Marcus Noland, a North Korea expert at the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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"In retrospect, North Korea may have calculated quite correctly that direct penalties for establishing itself as a nuclear power would be modest," Noland wrote in a paper published at the end of last year. "If sanctions are to deter behavior in the future, they will have to be much more enthusiastically implemented."

A draft resolution proposed this week by the United States, China and other major powers tries to be more enthusiastic. If approved, the resolution would restrict the North's access to international grants, financial assistance and low-interest loans, while reinvigorating enforcement of the sanctions approved after Pyongyang's first nuclear test.

With certain caveats, it also authorizes member nations to search ships suspected of carrying banned materials, such as missiles or nuclear technology, on the high seas and to seize what they find. But it would not limit North Korea's more conventional, and lucrative, trade with China.

Noland describes the current sanctions plan as "clever." Instead of a "crime and punishment" approach to North Korea, he said, the proposed sanctions are "basically defensive," relying on interdiction of ships and global financial restrictions.

In recent decades, North Korea has earned hundreds of millions of dollars by transporting missiles and missile parts to countries in East Asia and the Middle East, according to the Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey, Calif.

"The North Koreans will be down to whatever China gives them and whatever they can get from their subterranean customers in the Middle East," Noland said.

But there is little chance that these tougher sanctions will limit the ability of Kim Jong Il's government to profit from more conventional overseas trade, said Lim Eul-chul, a researcher who specializes in North Korean trade for the Seoul-based Institute for Far Eastern Studies.

"The sanctions will not have much effect on what North Korea trades with China," he said.

A sharp increase in military tension on the Korean Peninsula has recently made the North "very reluctant to export sensitive items overseas," such as missiles and counterfeit goods, said Lim, who has monitored North Korean trade for years.

"That kind of trade is not the current story," Lim said. "The current story is that North Korea is doing a lot of normal trade with China."

North Korea consistently fails to grow enough food to feed its 23 million people, and its state-controlled economy is moribund, but it does have mineral resources that are coveted by many industrialized countries.

The estimated value of its reserves -- including coal, iron ore, zinc, uranium and the world's largest known deposit of magnesite, which is essential for making lightweight metal for airplanes and electronics -- is more than $2 trillion, according to the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

The manufacturing boom in neighboring China has dovetailed with North Korea's acute need for hard currency and has accelerated Chinese access to the North's resources, according to Lim, Chinese mining experts and South Korean government officials.

There is, however, a significant new wrinkle in the North's trade with China, Lim said. "The military is taking control of export sales," he said, citing informants inside North Korea.

Other branches of the North Korean government, such as the Workers' Party and the cabinet, have been forced to relinquish their interest in these sales to the military, Lim said. The military has grabbed greater control of export revenue, he said, as it has provoked the outside world with missile launches and the nuclear test.

Based on the recent growth of North Korean-Chinese trade, Lim said he does not believe that China wants to "take any strong measures to crush the North Korean economy."

As China's trade with the North has soared, South Korea's has fallen off sharply, a victim of the undisguised contempt that Kim Jong Il's government has shown toward South Korean President Lee Myung-bak.

After Lee came into office last year, he halted a decade-old policy of giving the North unconditional gifts of food and fertilizer. North-South trade fell nearly 25 percent in the first four months of 2009, according to the Korean Customs office.

[American Patriot]

SCENARIOS: Retaliation North Korea may take against UN
Fri Jun 12, 2009 12:34am EDT

By Jack Kim

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea is unlikely to respond militarily to planned U.N. sanctions for its nuclear test, but the possibility should not be completely dismissed, U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates said.

Here are some steps the reclusive state could take if the resolution, written by the United States and endorsed by the four other permanent members plus Japan and South Korea, is adopted:

ANGRY RHETORIC, THEN DIPLOMACY

- North Korea might fire off a diatribe if the resolution is adopted but not respond militarily using either its conventional or strategic weapons. When the Security Council passed a resolution in 2006 after the North's first nuclear test, its U.N. envoy called the move "gangster-like" and a "coercive" act. Its foreign ministry called it a declaration of war.

- The North, however, set itself on course to return to the negotiating table two months later, ending a year-long deadlock in disarmament talks.

- Officials and experts say the North's recent provocative moves are linked to leader Kim Jong-il arranging for one of his sons to take over. Fighting against perceived hostility from the international community has been a staple of the North's domestic propaganda, used to consolidate power around Kim.

MISSILE TESTS

- North Korea has said it would test fire an intercontinental ballistic missile if the U.N. Security Council does not apologize for punishing it for its April rocket launch, widely seen as a disguised missile test that violated U.N. resolutions. The North appears to be preparing a long-range missile for a test that could be conducted as early as this month.

- Pyongyang also appears to be readying for tests of mid-range missiles that could strike anywhere in South Korea or most of Japan.

MORE NUCLEAR TESTS

- Experts said the North needs more tests in order to build a nuclear warhead it can mount on a missile.

- Each test eats into the North's meager supply of fissile material, thought before the May test to be enough for six to eight bombs.

- Additional tests depend on balancing a desire to make a nuclear device it can deliver on a missile with perfecting the bomb design.

NUCLEAR ARMS PROGRAMME

- North Korea could resume all operations at its Yongbyon nuclear plant and has said it is already processing plutonium there.

- It may also look to step up enriching uranium for weapons.

U.S. JOURNALISTS

- North Korea sentenced two U.S. journalists to 12 years hard labor on Monday and may want to use them to increase bargaining leverage with the United States.

[American Patriot]

Leader's son gets title suggesting impending power transfer...


Jun 12 2009 1:25PM
Associated Press



Leader's son gets title suggesting impending power transfer

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) It may be a sign of an impending power transfer in North Korea.

A South Korean newspaper reports that the youngest son of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il has been given the title of "Brilliant Comrade." That's seen as an indication that the communist regime is preparing to name 26-year-old Kim Jong Un as successor to his ailing father.

An unidentified intelligence official quoted by the newspaper said the title means the North will engineer a cult of personality for the younger Kim much like it did for his father and grandfather.

Grandiose titles are part of a tradition to stimulate public support in a nation where the media is tightly controlled and little is known about the inner workings of the government.

The report came shortly before the U.N. Security Council approved tough new sanctions against North Korea for its recent nuclear test.

[American Patriot]

UN Imposes Tough Sanctions On N Korea


7:27pm UK, Friday June 12, 2009
The United Nations Security Council has approved tough new sanctions against North Korea over its recent nuclear test.


The UN Security Council votes for tough measures against North Korea




The resolution imposes new restrictions on the country's weapons exports and financial dealings, and allows inspections, seizure and destruction of suspect cargo in ports and on the high seas although it does not authorise the use of force.


The sanctions will have "teeth to bite" but Pyongyang could react "in a fashion thatwould be further provocation," the US envoy to the United Nations Susan Rice warned.


All 15 members endorsed a resolution sponsored by Britain, France, Japan, South Korea and the United States.


Significantly, both China and Russia, which had been reluctant to support punitive measures against North Korea in the past, supported the resolution, which is now binding under international law.


Britain's UN deputy ambassador Philip Parham said the unanimous adoption of the text showed the international community was united in condemning North Korea's proliferation activities.


"We urge North Korea to refrain from any further provocative actions," he added.
"North Korea should return to the negotiating table and engage seriously with the international community."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il



The compromise resolution "condemns in the strongest terms" the North Korean nuclear test and "demands that the DPRK (North Korea) not conduct any further nuclear test or any launch using ballistic missile technology."


It declares that Pyongyang "shall abandon all nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programmes in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner and immediately cease all related activities."


North Korea has previously warned it would consider any sanctions a declaration of war and would respond with "due corresponding self-defense measures."
A more likely response would be the reported assessment by US intelligence officials to President Barack Obama that Pyongyang intends to respond to a UN resolution condemning its actions with another nuclear test.


Asked about how the Council would react to any new North Korean test, Mr Parham said: "We would take it badly. But we can't speculate now (on the council response). Our emphasis has to be on implementing this resolution as effectively as possible."
North Korea launched a long-range missile in April, which was roundly condemned by the Security Council.


Pyongyang then retaliated by announcing on May 25 it had staged a second nuclear weapons test, following one in 2006.


It also has declared the armistice ending the 1950-53 Korean War as void.

[American Patriot]

UN approves 'unprecedented' sanctions against North Korea over nuclear test

The resolution, passed unanimously by the security council, bans all weapons exports from North Korea



The United Nations security council today punished North Korea over last month's underground nuclear test by imposing new sanctions, risking potential naval flashpoints as it called on all members of the international community to stop and search its ships for weapons.


The resolution, which unusually was unanimous, bans all weapons exports from North Korea and the import of all but small arms. Securing a unanimous resolution shows the extent of the anger within the Chinese government over last month's nuclear test.


Normally, it is difficult for the US, Britain and France, all members of the security council, to persuade China and, to a lesser extent, Russia to take a tough line against North Korea.


Last night Susan Rice, the US ambassador to the UN, described the new resolution as "unprecedented". "We're very pleased the security council just within an hour and a half passed a brand new resolution," she said, adding that the sanctions regime has "teeth that will bite".


China strongly urged Pyongyang to promote denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula. While China and Russia are concerned about North Korea's nuclear armoury, they do not want to do anything that would precipitate the fall of the Pyongyang government and lead to the reunification of the peninsula. But western diplomats at the UN said China and Russia had been alarmed by the nuclear test.

Pyongyang's reaction is difficult to predict. The regime could retaliate by conducting more tests of nuclear weapons or long-range missiles, or, given its tendency for sudden switches in tactics, it could even return to the negotiating table.


The most controversial part of the resolution is the stop and search powers. The US, Britain and France wanted to make it mandatory for all states to search North Korean ships but China and Russia had this watered down. The resolution only calls on states to carry out such inspections to ensure North Korea is complying with the weapons ban. But it is a potentially dangerous move that could lead to stand-offs between US and North Korean ships.


The US envoy, Rosemary DiCarlo, said the resolution meant "markedly stronger sanctions" against North Korea while China's envoy, Zhang Yesui, said it showed the "firm opposition" of the international community to North Korea's nuclear weapons ambitions.


There was no attempt to expand the sanctions to hurt North Korea by banning exports and imports of non-military goods. This is partly because China and Russia would have been opposed but also because there is a fear that a collapse of the North Korean economy would result in a flood of refugees over the border into South Korea.
As well as watering down international requirements to stop and search North Korean ships, China also demanded, and got, another concession: allowing the continued import of small arms by North Korea. China is one of the biggest exporters of these weapons.


North Korea entered into international negotiations during the Bush administration aimed at abandoning its nuclear programme after being threatened with sanctions three years ago. But the process, which has been fitful for 15 years with numerous false dawns and sudden reversals, subsequently collapsed.


The Obama administration's main aim is to get North Korea back to the negotiating table. Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, said recently that it was unlikely that North Korea would respond militarily to sanctions but the possibility should not be completely dismissed.


North Korea could resume all operations at its Yongbyon nuclear plan. The sanctions could also complicate attempts to free two US journalists sentenced on Monday to 12 years hard labour for filming at the border between China and North Korea. Pleas had been made for their release on humanitarian grounds but North Korea may use them as a bargaining chip.

[American Patriot]

White House: US may confront ships near NKorea
27 minutes ago


WASHINGTON (AP) — The Obama administration says it is prepared to confront ships believed to be carrying contraband materials to North Korea but will not try to forcibly board them.


U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice said Friday that U.S. officials would seek permission to board and inspect such vessels in a bid to curb North Korea's nuclear weapons ambitions. She said the ships would be directed to a nearby port for inspection if they could not be boarded at sea.


The U.N. Security Council on Friday punished North Korea for its second nuclear test by imposing tough new sanctions.


Rice said it would not be surprising if North Korea reacted to the sanctions with "further provocation."


Rice said: "There's reason to believe they may respond in an irresponsible fashion to this." But she said the U.S. will focus on the enforcement of the multilateral sanctions, which she said she expects to have significant impact on North Korea's financing of its weapons and missile.

[American Patriot]

White House: UN stance on NKorea 'unprecedented'
30 minutes ago


WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations is praising the international body's newly-endorsed sanctions against North Korea in response to its recent nuclear tests.


Susan Rice told reporters in the White House briefing room Friday that "we're very pleased" with the sanctions. And she called the new resolution, which was embraced by the U.N. with the support of China and Russia, an "unprecedented" position by the body.
The United States and many other nations, including China and Russia, have condemned Pyongyang for its underground nuclear test on May 25 and a series of ground-to-air missile test firings.


Rice noted that the newly-passed resolution, among other things, would restrain North Korea's ability to import nuclear contraband.


(This version CORRECTS APNewsNow. SUBS last night to correct from 'export' to 'import')

[American Patriot]

Iran, North Korea Trading Missile Knowledge





Friday, Jun 12, 2009 @09:56am CST

(Washington, DC) -- Saber-rattling North Korea and Iran have partnered in an international effort to expand both country's ballistic missile systems.

The Pentagon's Missile Defense Agency says both countries are making progress by exchanging information on propulsion, avionics and other areas.


In the past, Iran has successfully launched a solid-fuel rocket that could reach southeastern Europe and Israel.


North Korea has launched missiles and tested an atomic bomb.


It's believed both North Korea and Iran are working on intercontinental ballistic missiles that could reach the U.S.

[American Patriot]

North Korea's Kaesong Clamor
June 12, 2009
Moon Ihlwan--BusinessWeek.com
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It's hard to believe a nation seeks talks to increase wages in a joint industrial park with its neighbor shortly after warning that a war with that neighbor might be imminent. But that's exactly what North Korea is doing just as the U.N. takes final steps to endorse sanctions for the country's May nuclear test. On June 11, South Korean negotiators, responding to a call for talks by Pyongyang, crossed the heavily fortified demilitarized zone to sit with their North Korean counterparts at the Kaesong Industrial Complex just north of their border.

The paradoxical approach sums up North Korea's precarious existence. The regime of ailing leader Kim Jong Il appears bent on maintaining the Kim family's Communist dynasty at all costs, but the country's rickety economy can hardly support the subsistence of its 23 million population. "If North Korea is totally cut off economically from the South, its hardship will be pushed to the brink within years," figures Koh Il Dong, who heads research on North Korea at the government-funded Korea Development Institute in Seoul.

Sure, since the fall of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the Soviet bloc 20 years ago, North Korea has defied predictions of the regime's demise. Koh and many North Korea watchers in Seoul believe the reclusive nation will again muddle through for a couple of years even in the face of international sanctions unless China, its main ally, pulls the plug.

The wild card, however, is South Korea. It has emerged as Pyongyang's second most important trading partner thanks to a decade of the "Sunshine" engagement policy that ended last year with the inauguration of conservative President Lee Myung Bak. Probably the most concrete sign of the 10-year period is the Kaesong complex. There, managers from more than 100 South Korean companies are working with a Communist Party workforce of nearly 40,000 who are employed at factories making clothes, shoes, watches, and other labor-intensive products.

Border Closures Take Toll On Output

Now, after more than a year of worsening relations and the North's second detonation of a nuclear device on May 25, the fate of the Kaesong complex is thrown into question. The pilot project is operated by a South Korea-run committee under a 50-year lease that began in 2004, but many in the South are now asking how much longer it can survive. The dangers to the viability of the industrial park weren't really posed by the recent belligerence of the North. After all, South Korean entrepreneurs who have lived with communist threats since the end of World War II are so accustomed to the North's rancor that it's been business as usual, despite the tensions. "As far as the production goes, nothing much has changed at Kaesong," says Yoo Chang Guen, president of South Korea's SJ Tech, which employs 430 North Korean workers there to make rubber and plastic parts for cars and semiconductor manufacturing equipment. "North Korean workers don't even know what's really going on outside Kaesong."

The real problem, rather, dates from December, when the North Korean military imposed restrictions on passage through the border. Pyongyang's action came after South Korean human rights groups dropped leaflets criticizing the Kim Jong Il regime from balloons. Three day-long closures of the border followed while the U.S. and South Korea carried out a major joint military exercise in March. The North also detained a South Korean man working at Kaesong in March for allegedly criticizing the Northern system.

The border closures and detention sent alarm bells ringing among some businessmen, particularly buyers of goods made in Kaesong. "Lots of contract work is drying up at Kaesong because companies dealing with seasonal products are afraid that orders can't be met in time and they will lose business opportunities," notes Yoo at SJ Tech; the company's monthly output value at Kaesong has dropped to $7.5 million, from $15 million last year. In 2008, SJ Tech managed to break even after investing $10 million in its Kaesong plant over the four previous years. Yoo says his company's Kaesong operation is now losing some 30 cents on every dollar of revenue.

What's more, North Korea in May declared it was canceling all wage, rent, and tax agreements with South Korea over the Kaesong complex. It has also warned that Southern companies should pull out unless they are willing to respect new rules and terms to be set by the North. "The recent steps at Kaesong will pose huge risks for North Korea among international investors as they destroy fundamental trustworthiness in business dealings with the country," says Jeong Hyung Gon, a researcher at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, a Seoul-based state-funded think tank.

Asking For A 400% Raise

Already, falling exports by factories operating at Kaesong underlines waning confidence in the industrial park. Exports plunged 56% in the first four months of this year, to $7.15 million from $16.3 million in the 2008 period, even though the number of companies operating there jumped to 104 at the end of April, from 69 a year earlier, according to data compiled by the South's Unification Ministry. Total output, however, fell only 6.6% to $74.54 million in the four months as many factories managed to replace exports with cheaper local assembly work to minimize losses.

North Korea piled more bad news on the companies on June 11. During the Thursday talks at Kaesong, the North notified the South that it wants to increase the average monthly wage to $300, from about $75 now. "Such a wage level will spell an end to the Kaesong complex," says Jung Seung Eui, director of manufacturing at Samduk Tongsang, which employs 2,800 North Korean workers at Kaesong to make 80,000 pairs of shoes -- mostly for running and hiking -- per month. Chung notes Kaesong operations could easily be replaced with contract workers in China at a wage of $150 a month.

Backing down from an earlier take-it-or-leave-it declaration, the North left a door open for compromise. Before ending Thursday's meeting, North and South Korean officials agreed to further negotiations on June 19. Watchers of the North say given that North Korea earned cash worth between $500 million and $600 million annually through trade, aid, and cooperative projects such as Kaesong with South Korea, the stakes are high in its gambit with the South. Nevertheless, "the key to North Korea's survival is held by China," says Lee Young Hoon, North Korea specialist at Bank of Korea, the South's central bank. Lee points out that China's trade with North Korea nearly quadrupled from $740 million in 2002 to $2.79 billion in 2008 -- a pace that could make up for North Korea's losses resulting from its isolation.

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[American Patriot]

Endgame in Korea?

Lacking the military wherewithal to defeat the South, Kim's regime is simply trying to extend its miserable existence through extortion.
by Stuart Koehl
06/12/2009 12:00:00 AM


North Korea and Iran both seem to behave like spoiled children competing for the attention of the adults in the room. First one makes an outlandish threat or takes a provocative action, then the other must raise the ante, lest the first one become the center of attention. Thus, we recently saw Iran announce that it was accelerating its nuclear enrichment program and attempt the launch of a long-range ballistic missile (excuse me, I mean "space launch system"). North Korea responded in turn by conducting in rapid succession the testing of a nuclear device and the launch of multiple ballistic, cruise and air defense missiles. "Look at me! I'm really scary!"

Over at the American Spectator Online, George H. Wittman is suitably impressed. In an article entitled "The Road Back to Pork Chop Hill," he recounts the dreadful opening days of the Korean War, when outnumbered, badly trained and ill-equipped American troops were routed by the North Korean army in a surprise attack. He then goes on to say that such a scene is likely to repeat itself in the next few years, with a North Korean victory almost inevitable:

General George Casey, Army Chief of Staff, recently stated quite frankly that it would take ninety days to move forward an adequate force to block an attacking North Korean army. Using this official military assessment as their guide, there is no reason to believe the NK military leadership would hesitate to assure
their Dear Leader of an effectively full occupation of the Korean Peninsula within that time period.

I've been a military analyst for more than thirty years. I have studied the North Korean army in detail--its tactics, equipment and capabilities--and I have to say, this projection is one of the more ludicrous I have seen. I understand that in a resource-constrained environment, service leaders and theater commanders have to propound the worst case scenario to ensure their fair share of the pie, but even a cursory look at the North Korean People's Army leaves one wondering "huh?"

The arms and equipment of the North Korean military are, overwhelmingly, Soviet-derived systems of 1960s and 70s vintage, lacking the kind of electronics, communications, fire controls and survivability features necessary on the modern battlefield.

To understand what this means, look at the disparity in combat effectiveness between Saddam Hussein's army and our own in Operation Desert Storm. Now consider that, as compared to North Korea's, Saddam's army was extraordinarily well trained and competent.

Kim's army hasn't been to war since 1953. Sure, it can beat up on unarmed truce inspection teams and kidnap Japanese civilians from remote beaches, but what has it really done lately? Worse still, it hasn't been able to stage realistic, large-scale exercises due to a chronic shortage of both fuel and cash. An army that doesn't know how to move formations larger than a battalion or regiment will degenerate into chaos when it tries to move divisions and armies. Finally, promotion in Kim's army, like promotion in Saddam's, is awarded for political loyalty, not military competence. Loyalty in such regimes is usually defined as telling the psychotic dictator what he wants to hear. Yet the first key to success in modern war is a free and open exchange of information between leaders and subordinates. The problem of political reliability is paramount for Kim--if he lets his army loose on the South, will it actually fight, or will it disintegrate on contact (or worse, turn on the regime)?

The one bright spot for the North Korean army is its special forces. North Korea maintains about 200 independent companies (about 100 men each) trained to infiltrate South Korea to attack command centers, lines of communication, logistic hubs, etc. They can move through the rugged eastern half of the peninsula either on foot or dropped from slow, low-flying An-2 Colt bi-plane transports (which are generally too slow to intercept--sometimes low tech beats high tech, hands down). But while North Korean special forces can undoubtedly sow disruption throughout the Allied forces, ultimately, they cannot win a war by themselves.

To do that, the North Koreans will have to insert large conventional forces into the battle, all the way from the DMZ to to Pusan. The odds of that are most unlikely. Here is why:

1. The terrain in the eastern part of the peninsula up by the DMZ is extremely mountainous and traversed by few roads. Mechanized forces moving through that area are limited to the roads, and thus present attractive targets to Allied artillery and airpower. There are numerous choke points where vehicles can only move one or two abreast, and if the lead vehicles are blocked, an entire regiment or division can be halted, even if opposed by relatively small numbers of tanks and infantry. But this region is ideal for modern attack helicopters using anti-tank guided missiles from pop-up positions. A squadron of a dozen or so of AH-64 Apaches
can kill more than 120 tanks in the course of a single night. In short, the odds of North Korea making a major breakthrough on the eastern half of the peninsula are pretty slim.

So, what about the flatter, more developed western half, the so-called Seoul Corridor. Once upon a time this was ideal tank country, and we worried seriously about a North Korean blitzkrieg blowing through our skimpy forward defenses and cutting off the South Korean capital city. But, over the last two decades, Seoul has expanded so dramatically that the suburbs now extend all the way to the DMZ, and eastward to the mountains. The whole area has been built up into an urban megalopolis--and, as any tanker will tell you, the last place you want to go with tanks is into the big city. City fighting eats troops and is especially unfriendly to tanks, which are vulnerable to short range attack from all sides, as well as from above (the rooftops) and below (the sewers). Look at what badly armed Chechen guerrillas did to the Russian army in Grozny and think about what highly trained and well equipped regular troops could do.

A general rule says the attacker needs a numerical advantage of 3-to-1 in order to succeed, but cities are a defensive "force multiplier", so that an advantage of 5-to-1 or more becomes necessary. As the lead North Korean echelon gets bogged down in street fighting, the follow-on echelons will be stacked up in a massive traffic jam going all the way to Pyongyang. And while our troops are beating up on Kim's first wave, our airpower will be devastating his reserves. Even if, by some miracle, the North Koreans manage to break through near Seoul, they will have no follow-on forces to exploit the victory.

At this point, the momentum of the war would shift to the Allies, who could now mount a devastating counterattack against North Korea. Even assuming we do not go all the way to the Yalu (and thus risk Chinese intervention again), it is highly unlikely that the Communist regime would survive such a catastrophic defeat. Kim's rule is postulated on the myth of an infallible leader. U.S. and South Korean tanks rumbling towards Pyongyong is about as concrete a refutation of that myth as you can get. Kim and his followers would go the way of the Ceaucescus, a new clique of leaders would emerge, and would negotiate a cease fire with the Allies in short order. Reunification with South Korea would probably follow thereafter.

Kim and his generals aren't stupid. They can do the calculus as well as anyone, and they undoubtedly have come to similar conclusions. As regime survival is Kim's first, last and only priority, what, then, is his real game?

I would suggest Kim desires to maintain the status quo as long as possible, in the face of increasingly unfavorable conditions--military, economic and social. To do that, he must win concessions and subsidies from his enemies, especially South Korea and the United States. Yet Kim lacks the military wherewithal to defeat the U.S. and South Korea, so how does he gain any leverage?

He does so by holding South Korea hostage. As noted, Seoul has grown exponentially as South Korea has grown in prosperity, and today a majority of the South's wealth and population is concentrated in and around the capital city, which now has a population of 24.5 million--all of it within range of North Korean artillery batteries.

Indeed, the artillery is one of North Korea's most professional arms, lavishly equipped with excellent guns. But most of these are towed, and, lacking mobility, towed artillery on the modern battlefield is dead meat (because modern counter-battery radars can detect shells in flight and back track them to their source in a matter of a few minutes, allowing counter-battery fire to rain death down on them). But Kim was cagey--he did not intend to use these guns as field artillery, but rather put them into hardened steel-and-concrete emplacements on ridge lines overlooking Seoul. These so-called "Y-Sites" (because they have one entrance on the northern side, and two alternate firing positions on the southern side) are resistant to all but a direct hit from a very large bomb. The firing emplacements are small and well camouflaged, making them difficult to locate and attack. Kim has, for decades, used the thousands of artillery pieces in the Y-Sites as a standing threat to the city of Seoul. Yes, you can bomb a city into rubble, but if you really want to pound a place into dust, artillery is just the thing--it's accurate and it's persistent. Airplanes deliver ordnance in "pulses"--they take off, drop bombs, return to base and rearm. Artillery delivers shells in a constant stream, two or three rounds per minute, for hour on end, as long as the gunners and the ammunition hold out. The result can be devastating, the casualties huge.

Faced with the threat of having their capital city destroyed with tens of thousands of civilian casualties and limited capability to respond, the South Korean government has been inclined to appease the North and to restrain the U.S. from "provocative" actions.

But that situation is changing, in part because military technology is rendering the Y-sites vulnerable to attack, and thus reducing their utility as a blackmail instrument. The advent of high resolution multispectral sensors, together with long-endurance unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) such as the Predator and Global Hawk, allows the U.S. to maintain constant surveillance over the area where the Y-sites are located, and to detect both their locations and any activity around them. If North Korea decides it wants to shoot, we will know they are getting ready. More to the point, once we are convinced they will shoot, we now have the capability, in the form of air-delivered precision guided weapons, to destroy the sites in very short order. Hardened though they may be, they are not so hard as to be able to resist a direct hit from a laser or GPS-guided 2000-lb. bunker buster. Once a site starts shooting, it can be destroyed before it gets off more than a couple of rounds. Destroying all the sites could be done in perhaps a couple of days. The damage to Seoul would be serious, but not crippling; South Korean civil defense measures would help minimize civilian casualties. South Korea apparently recognizes it no longer has to put up with the threat of the Y-Sites looming over Seoul--the U.S. has agreed to sell GBU-28 laser guided deep penetration bombs to South Korea, and though everyone imagines this would be to destroy Kim's nuclear weapons facilities, the Y-Sites are a more obvious and valuable target.

Having blown his wad, so to speak, and come up empty, what else can Kim do? He will have given the U.S. precisely the excuse it needs to destroy his regime, and as noted, there is little he could do to prevent it. As this becomes more obvious, the credibility of the North Korean threat recedes, along with North Korea's leverage over the South. Time is not on Kim's side.

What then of North Korea's nuclear program? Again, one has to view it as an attempt by Kim to maintain a degree of leverage over South Korea and the United States in order to wring out regime-extending concessions. But there is almost no chance that North Korea would initiate first use of nuclear weapons, because that would be, in a very literal sense, suicidal. President Ahmedinejad and the Mullahs in Iran may have eschatological pretensions, but the North Korean leadership is very much interested in staying alive and in power.

North Korea's nuclear ambitions pose two threats to the United States. First, North Korea is a proven proliferator of nuclear technology, as its recent project in Syria demonstrates. The North can transfer nuclear technology to other enemies of the U.S., thereby complicating our foreign policy and causing us to divert resources away from the Korean Peninsula. But a close blockade and inspection regime--recently joined by South Korea--is quite capable of preventing any major proliferation program from succeeding.

The second threat is posed by the marriage of nuclear warheads to long range ballistic missiles. Here, it seems clear that North Korean strategy aims to decouple the United States (not to mention other regional allies such as Japan) from South Korea, holding Tokyo or Los Angeles at risk in order to prevent any response to North Korean aggression against South Korea. Similar reasoning was behind the Soviet deployment of SS-20 intermediate range missiles to Eastern Europe in the 1980s. Our response then was the deployment of our own intermediate range nuclear force, extending our deterrent umbrella over our NATO allies without elevating the nuclear threat to the strategic level.

Today, we have the ability to provide extended deterrence against North Korean ballistic missiles using defensive technology. That is, completion of our National Missile Defense (NMD) system would obviate the threat of Kim's necessarily small ICBM force. Closer to the region, we already have Patriot PAC-3 missiles deployed in South Korea, which by themselves are very capable against short-range missiles. The deployment in the next few years of the Theater Area High Altitude Air Defense System (THAADS) will provide a long range "upper tier) interception capability, to defeat Kim's medium range missiles. In addition, both the United States and Japan have deployed the AEGIS Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system based on the Standard SM-3 missile, which, stationed off the coasts of North Korea, can provide a limited "boost phase" interception capability; i.e., destroying Kim's missiles while they are still climbing through the atmosphere, and still over North Korea.

Here, the Obama administration has missed a trick by canceling development of the Airborne Laser (ABL) program, which is ideally suited for the Korean situation. A powerful chemical laser mounted on a Boeing 747, the ABL has demonstrated the ability to defeat ballistic missiles by burning through their thin-skinned booster rockets; each ABL has the capacity to destroy dozens of ascending missiles in a single sortie. Orbiting over South Korea or over international waters on either side of North Korea, a handful of ABLs would trump all of Kim's ballistic missiles in one move.

What we see, then, is not a North Korea intent on refighting--and winning--a second Korean War, but a failing dictatorship trying desperately to extend its miserable existence by getting its enemies to pay it to behave. One by one, though, Kim is losing his ability to gain leverage over the U.S. and South Korea as we develop the means to neutralize each of his offensive threats. Comprehensive ballistic missile defense would be the last piece needed to place Kim's regime in checkmate, at which point, North Korea can either resign the game, or sit staring at the board while we go off and do other things. Of course, this assumes we have the will to put the last pieces in the proper places, and don't succumb to the type of hysteria that sees us on the road to "another Pork Chop Hill".

Stuart Koehl is a regular contributor to THE WEEKLY STANDARD Online.

[American Patriot]

Japan: Comment by the Japanese Prime Minister on the adoption of a United Nations Security Council resolution concerning the nuclear test by North Korea

1 I highly regard the unanimous adoption of a strong United Nations Security Council resolution, resolution 1874 concerning the nuclear test by North Korea. This resolution indicates the international community's strong condemnation of and concerns over the nuclear test. I call upon the North Korea to take the firm message from the international community with full seriousness and to comply with this resolution. In addition, I once again strongly urge North Korea to take concrete action conducive to the comprehensive resolution of outstanding issues of concern concerning North Korea, including the abduction, nuclear and missile issues.

2 Thus far Japan has taken active part in consultations at the Security Council in close cooperation with the countries concerned, including the United States and the Republic of Korea. Hereafter the international community needs to cooperate so as to steadily implement the measures based on the Security Council resolution and to oblige North Korea to alter its actions. Japan, for its part, shall swiftly take appropriate steps so as to render the Security Council resolution effective.
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