SCO Expansion

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Sri Lanka Joins the SCO

Further signs of Sri Lanka’s shift into China’s orbit

By K. Ratnayake
18 June 2009

This week Sri Lankan president Mahinda Rajapakse made his first trip abroad since the army’s military victory over the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Significantly, it was to Burma (Myanmar) for talks with the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), as the country’s repressive military junta is known.

Accompanying Rajapakse on his three-day visit were foreign minister Rohitha Bogollagama, two other ministers and Wimal Weerawansa, leader of National Freedom Front (NFF). While the NFF is not yet part of the ruling coalition, Weerawansa, a Sinhala chauvinist demagogue, has backed the government and its communal war, denouncing Western powers for pressuring countries like Sri Lanka and Burma over human rights.

Burma is not itself a significant power, but Rajapakse’s visit indicates a turn to other countries, particularly to China, to counter pressure from the US and the European powers for a war crimes investigation. Burma has longstanding economic and strategic relations with Beijing, which also established closer ties with Colombo during the Sri Lankan war by providing arms and aid.

Rajapakse could expect a sympathetic ear in Burma because the junta also confronts Western demands. The US and European Union (EU) have both imposed sanctions on Burma and are calling for political reform and the release of detained opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. As in the case of Sri Lanka, the US and EU campaign is not about democratic rights but is aimed at boosting their influence in Burma at the expense of their rivals, particularly China.

As predominantly Buddhist countries, Sri Lanka and Burma have a long history of religious interchange. Rajapakse accompanied Sri Lankan prime minister Sirima Bandaranaike on a state visit to Burma in 1978, and returned as prime minister in 2004 to participate in a World Buddhist Congress.

During this week’s visit, Rajapakse thanked the Burmese junta for its support in cracking down on LTTE arms supplies shipped via islands between Burma and Thailand. He told his hosts: “The end of brutal terrorism which took away over 100,000 innocent lives of our people during three decades has brought forth new challenges for us to rebuild our nation with infra-structural needs ...” Far from being “a war on terrorism”, the real responsibility for the conflict rests with successive Colombo governments, which exploited anti-Tamil chauvinism to divide the working class.

The Burmese leaders had nothing to say about the thousands of Tamil civilians killed by indiscriminate Sri Lankan army shellfire since January or the huge detention camps into which 300,000 people have been herded. Junta leader, General Than Shwe, was intent on boasting about his own country’s “achievements since independence in 1948 in the socio-economic and cultural spheres”. In return, Rajapakse kept a diplomatic silence on the atrocities carried out by the Burmese military and its brutal suppression of democratic rights.

At a defence forum in Singapore last month, Burma’s deputy defence minister Major General Aye Myint spoke approvingly of the Sri Lankan war. “The world has recently witnessed the successful end of a long-standing insurgency in Sri Lanka. But, people have forgotten about insurgency in Myanmar. Why? Because no more major fighting erupted in Myanmar in recent days,” he said. Like Sri Lanka, he added, the government was using “hard power” to deal with the insurgency.

As Rajapakse was hobnobbing with the Burmese generals, there was another indication of Sri Lanka’s shifting diplomatic orientation at Yekaterinburg in Russia. The Shanghai Corporation Organisation (SCO) summit formally approved Colombo’s application to become a dialogue party to the group, which includes China, Russia and several Central Asian republics. Beijing and Moscow established the grouping in 2001 as a means of countering growing US influence, particularly in the energy-rich Central Asian region.

The resolution declared: “The SCO member states welcome the end of an internal military conflict in Sri Lanka, and express hope for establishing a firm peace, strengthening security and stability in the country on the basis of ensuring its state sovereignty and territorial integrity, guaranteeing the rights of all ethnic and religious groups.”

China and Russia are no more interested in democratic rights in Sri Lanka than the US and the EU. Beijing regards the island as an important potential base to defend shipping routes for its vital supplies of energy and raw materials from the Middle East and Africa. Chinese corporations are engaged in building a major new port facility at Hambantota in southern Sri Lanka.

China and Russia provided important diplomatic support for the Rajapakse government by blocking discussion in the UN Security Council on the Sri Lankan war. They also played a key role at the UN Human Rights Council last month, scuttling a European resolution that called for an independent investigation into war crimes in Sri Lanka.

An article yesterday on the Asia Times web site entitled, “Sri Lanka drifts closer to the East,” pointed to the economic imperatives behind the Sri Lankan government’s diplomatic moves. “Had Rajapakse remained beholden to the West, Sri Lanka, perhaps would not have won its war against terror. Western aid comes to Sri Lanka with strings. But there are no such strings attached to the aid from the East. This explains why Sri Lanka had no hesitation in joining the SCO as a dialogue partner.”

The Sri Lankan government confronts a deepening economic crisis despite the end of fighting. Burdened with huge debts arising from its military spending and hit by the global economic recession, Colombo has sought a $US1.9 billion emergency loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) but it has been held up by US and European opposition. As a result, Sri Lanka is relying on loans and grants from China, Japan, India, Libya, Iran and the Gulf States.

Explaining the decision to join the SCO, Sri Lankan foreign secretary Palitha Kohona said: “[The] economic reasons are overwhelming. China, a key SCO member, is emerging as the second-biggest economy in the world. Other SCO countries such as Russia and Kazakhstan are rich in oil and mineral resources. It is natural for Sri Lanka to reach out proactively to these countries and benefit from the relationship.”

While Kohona denied that involvement with the SCO meant a turn away from the US and Europe, it is unlikely to be viewed that way in Washington, which will undoubtedly continue to exploit the issue of “human rights” to pressure the Rajapakse government. More broadly, the diplomatic skirmishing over Sri Lanka is a further indication of the sharpening rivalry between the major powers, which is being exacerbated by the continuing global economic crisis.

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SCO summit agrees to adopt common currency


17 June 2009 @ 06:05 pm ET
Next Politics & Policy Article

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), comprising Russia, China and four ex-Soviet Central Asian republics--Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan-- held their own summit Tuesday in the Russian Ural city of Yekaterinburg.

The leaders of SCO countries agreed to take Russia's proposal on using their national currencies in mutual settlements and introducing a common currency for the group.

The common currency would be similar to the European currency unit and the monetary union currency in 2013 of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries that include Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, also as expected, told the SCO summit that the Shanghai group member states should increase the share of their national currencies in mutual settlements to reduce dependence on the dollar and improve the health of the global financial system.

"The current set of reserve currencies and the main reserve currency - the U.S. dollar - have failed to function as they should," Medvedev said.
He added that the Russian ruble could hopefully become a reserve currency in the foreseeable future.

The summit suggests that the dollar dominance as the world's prime reserve currency isn't on the road to expansion. Obviously the developing countries are clearly observing the unprecedented rise of U.S. debt that issued in U.S. dollars.

The SCO was set up as a security group, but has increasingly encompassed economic and energy projects. The alliance is seen as a counterbalance to U.S. interests in energy-rich Central Asia.

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China Crosses the Rubicon

19 June 2009
By Wen Liao

For two decades, Chinese diplomacy has been guided by the concept of the country's "peaceful rise." Today, however, China needs a new strategic doctrine, because the most remarkable aspect of Sri Lanka's recent victory over the Tamil Tigers is not its overwhelming nature but the fact that China provided President Mahinda Rajapaska with both the military supplies and diplomatic cover he needed to prosecute the war.

Without that Chinese backing, Rajapaska's government would have had neither the wherewithal nor the will to ignore world opinion in its offensive against the Tigers. So not only has China become central to every aspect of the global financial and economic system, it has now demonstrated its strategic effectiveness in a region traditionally outside its orbit. On Sri Lanka's beachfront battlefields, China's peaceful rise was completed.

What will this change mean in practice in the world's hot spots like North Korea, Pakistan, and Central Asia?

Before the global financial crisis hit, China benefited mightily from the long boom along its eastern and southern rim, with only Burma and North Korea causing instability. China's west and south, however, have become sources of increasing worry.

Given economic insecurity within China in the wake of the financial crisis and global recession, China's government finds insecurity in neighboring territories more threatening than ever. Stabilizing its neighborhood is one reason why China embraces the six-party talks with North Korea, became a big investor in Pakistan, signed on to a joint Asia and Europe summit declaration calling for the release from detention of Burmese opposition leader Daw Aung Suu Kyi and intervened to help end Sri Lanka's 26-year civil war.

The calculus behind China's emerging national security strategy is simple. Without peace and prosperity around China's long borders, there can be no peace, prosperity and unity at home. China's intervention in Sri Lanka and its visibly mounting displeasure with the North Korean and Burmese regimes suggest that this calculus has quietly become central to the government's thinking.

For example, though China said little in public about Russia's invasion and dismemberment of Georgia last summer, Russia is making a strategic mistake if it equates China's public silence with tacit acquiescence to the Kremlin's claim to "privileged interests" in the post-Soviet republics, many of which are located on China's western flank.

Proof of China's displeasure was first seen at the 2008 summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. President Dmitry Medvedev pushed the SCO to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but the SCO balked. The group's Central Asian members -- Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan -- would not have stood up to the Kremlin without China's support.

At this year's SCO summit, which ended on Tuesday, the pattern continued. The brief appearance of Iran's disputed president-elect, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, may have gained all the headlines, but China's announcement of a $10 billion fund to support the budgets of financially distressed former Soviet republics, which followed hard on a $3 billion investment in Turkmenistan and a $10 billion investment in Kazakhstan, provides more evidence that China now wants to shape events across Eurasia.

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin famously described the collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. From China's standpoint, however, the Soviet collapse was the greatest strategic gain imaginable. At a stroke, the empire that had gobbled up Chinese territories for centuries vanished. The Soviet military threat -- once so severe that Chairman Mao invited U.S. President Richard Nixon to China to change the Cold War balance of power -- was eliminated. China's new assertiveness suggests that it will not allow Russia to revive Soviet-like spheres of influence or undo the post-Cold War settlement under which China's economy flourished and security increased.

So far, China's rulers have regarded emerging strategic competition with India, Japan, Russia and the United States as a jostling for influence in Central and South Asia. China's strategic imperative in this competition is to ensure that no rival acquires a dangerous "privileged influence" in any of its border regions. Beijing also wants to maximize the protection of its trade routes -- not least of which are its sea lanes (hence China's interest in Sri Lanka and in combating Somali pirates).

In the 1990s, China sought to mask its "peaceful rise" behind a policy of "smile diplomacy" designed to make certain that its neighbors did not fear it. China lowered trade barriers and offered soft loans and investments to help its southern neighbors. Today, China's government seeks to shape the diplomatic agenda in order to increase China's options while constricting those of potential adversaries.

Instead of remaining diplomatically aloof, China is forging more relationships with its neighbors than any of its rivals. This informal web is being engineered not only to keep its rivals from coalescing or gaining privileged influence, but also to restrain the actions of China's local partners so as to dampen tension anywhere it might flare up.

Rather than creating fear, China's newfound assertiveness should be seen as establishing the necessary conditions for comprehensive negotiations about the very basis of peaceful coexistence and stability in Asia -- respect for all sides' vital interests. In recent years, such an approach ran counter to the U.S. foreign policy predisposition of favoring universalist doctrines over a careful balancing of national interests. With the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama embracing realism as its diplomatic lodestar, China may have found a willing interlocutor.

Wen Liao is chairwoman of Longford Advisors, a political, economic and business consultancy in Hong Kong. © Project Syndicate

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Pakistan slated to join SCO

Gilani, Putin agree to strengthen ties

By Shamim-ur-Rahman
Thursday, 15 Oct, 2009



During the meeting which lasted about an hour and fifteen minutes, they agreed on the need for re-engaging relations. — Photo by AFP

BEIJING: Pakistan and Russia agreed on Wednesday to re-launch their inter-governmental commission by the end of this year to revatalise bilateral relations, with focus on infrastructure development, energy, rail link, heavy industry and upgradation of Pakistan Steel.

The agreement was reached at a meeting between Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin held here on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

During the meeting which lasted about an hour and fifteen minutes, they agreed on the need for re-engaging relations, according to Pakistan’s Ambassador Masood Khan who briefed the media on the talks between the two leaders.

Mr Putin said his country would support Pakistan’s request for full membership of the SCO and indicated that he would back resumption of composite dialogue between India and Pakistan because reduction of tension between the two countries would facilitate improvement of Moscow’s relations with Islamabad.

Mr Gilani briefed Mr Putin on Pakistan’s initiative for resumption of composite dialogue with India and his meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and urged Mr Putin to persuade New Delhi to resume talks.

About the security situation in and around Afghanistan, both leaders said that despite difficulties in resolving the Afghan issue efforts must continue to find a way out. Mr Putin said his country could play an important role in eradicating terrorism and extremism from the region.

He said Russia would be interested in exploring cooperation in the fields of oil and gas and would support the completion of Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project.

With regard to Pakistan’s action against terrorists and militants in Swat, according to sources, Mr Putin termed it ‘an act of courage which shows you are determined to take on the challenge’. He appreciated the efforts of Pakistan in fighting terrorism and said that his country faced a similar situation but dealt it with an iron hand.

Earlier, addressing the meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of Governments, Mr Gilani sought full membership of the organisation and said such a step would promote regional stability.

Mr Gilani said the ‘SCO must assume the lead in initiating a high-level strategic dialogue engaging the spectrum of its association, members, observers and partners, to crystallise and prioritise a comprehensive and large-scale trans-regional development agenda’.

He also called for working out ‘practical modalities to craft investment instruments for win-win project cooperation in the areas of energy and infrastructure connectivity as also for exploiting the region’s vast mineral, industrial and agricultural resources’.

He said free trade was the only option. ‘To enable the regional economies to shield themselves from the vagaries of financial turmoil, what we trade, how much and in what manner must assume high priority,’ he said.

He added that ‘currency swap arrangements must be put in place, alongside trade promotion and facilitation measures’.

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Lavrov goes to Sri Lanka to discuss economic cooperation 25.10.2009, 22.42 MOSCOW, October 25 (Itar-Tass) -- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has gone to Sri Lanka to discuss bilateral economic cooperation. He will hold negotiations with President Mahinda Percy Rajapaksa, Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama and some other officials. “The minister will confirm the Russian interest in the gas survey and production on the shelf of Sri Lanka, the reconstruction of an oil refinery built with the assistance of the former Soviet Union, modernization and construction of seaports and the development of energy infrastructure,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said. “It is planned to sign an intergovernmental agreement on the joint suppression of drug trafficking, and a memorandum on mutual understanding between the two emergency situations ministries,” he said. The sides will discuss tourism, training of Sri Lanka students in Russia and cultural exchanges. “Russia will confirm the wish to strengthen anti-terrorist cooperation in the bilateral and international formats, including at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), in which Sri Lanka received the partner status in June 2009 with the active support of Russia,” Nesterenko said. On October 27 Lavrov will go to India’s Bangalore for a tripartite meeting with colleagues from India and China. The meeting will focus on the situation in Afghanistan. “Bearing in mind Afghan instability, the ministers will discuss Afghan problems and joint efforts in the deterrence of terrorism and drugs coming from Afghanistan and the assistance to the economic development of that country,” Nesterenko said. The ministers will speak about energy security, the UN reform, the Iranian nuclear program, the SCO cooperation and the situation on the Korean Peninsula. They will post a joint communique about tripartite cooperation and international and regional problems, Nesterenko said.

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China Russia Axis Iran Offers SCO Alternative To U.S. Control Of World Resources

Global Research, October 16, 2009
Press TV - 2009-10-15

Iran has offered to enhance its role as an energy provider and transit route for Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states.

"Tehran is ready to provide SCO members with energy and access to free waters," Iran's First Vice President Mohammad-Reza Rahimi told the organization's Secretary General Bolat Nurgaliyev in Beijing on Thursday.

Rahimi said Iran would endeavor to raise the level of its cooperation with the SCO, especially as the world is facing an effort by the United States to gain unilateral control over global energy reserves.

In response to the Iranian vice president's remarks, Nurgaliyev described the Islamic Republic's role in providing energy and a transit corridor for members of the organizations as important.

Rahimi was in the Chinese capital to partake in a SCO summit that brought together envoys from China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Mongolia, India, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan in the Great Hall of the People.

The SCO is an intergovernmental organization founded in Shanghai in 2001. Within the framework of the SCO, member states engage in a wide rage of economic, political and security collaborations.

Iran joined the organization as an observer state in 2005.

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Larouche On Russia-China Cooperation 'A Potential Stepping Stone To a Four-Power Agreement'


October 30th, 2009 10:04 AM

by Rachel Douglas



A large package of bilateral agreements was signed on Oct. 13, during Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's official visit to China, most of them covering key areas of economic cooperation. In discussions with associates yesterday, Lyndon LaRouche termed the agreements "very significant," and a "smart move" on the part of both the Chinese and the Russians, in the setting of the global systemic economic crisis.

"What happened is that Russia and China, with Putin being key in this thing, with [President Dmitri] Medvedev agreeing," said LaRouche, "is that they have agreed on long-term development contracts, which would be bi-national in certain projects within eastern Russia. So, that's quite an interesting development."

LaRouche said that he "had a foretaste of what the issues were, that were going to be discussed in that diplomatic meeting," during his participation at the World Public Forum-Dialogue of Civilizations, which was wrapping up in Rhodes, Greece, just as the Beijing talks got underway, according to the report. In his own presentation at the Rhodes Forum, LaRouche noted, he had warned about the impact on China of a cheapening of the U.S. dollar (see last week's EIR). At the same time, he added, China faces high unemployment, in the face of which, "the tendency on the part of China is to say, well, we'll just move in and take territory in Russia; we'll just take our poor and send them over there, and they'll become farmers in Russia or something." With the new package of agreements, oriented to bilateral infrastructure development, LaRouche said, "that was not done. What was done by this agreement was quite different."

LaRouche continued, "And what this means is, that now you have a stepping stone towards what I've proposed as the four-power agreement to launch a new world financial, a new credit system. And so this is extremely important. It is not all the way, yet-you know what's going on in the United States." The four powers, urged by LaRouche to become the initiators of a new world credit system, are the United States, Russia, China, and India.

LaRouche underscored that the Chinese-Russian agreements mean that China's U.S. dollar reserves are now worth something real, because they are being invested in infrastructure and other physical production. If the new Russia-China economic cooperation goes forward on an expanded scale, he pointed out, it creates the opportunity for the United States to join in the arrangements, advancing the four-powers prospect.

Not Just Raw Materials
Speaking Oct. 14 to Russian journalists in Beijing, Putin chastised them for focussing almost exclusively on the price structure of Russian natural gas sales to China, which were discussed in connection with new gas field and pipeline develoment. Russia's participation in China's nuclear energy development is extremely important, Putin admonished the press. Signed in Beijing were agreements for Russia to help expand the Tianwan nuclear power plant in Lianyungang, and a more advanced technology: the first-ever Russian export of two sodium-cooled breeder reactors to China. In an interview to Chinese media the previous day, Putin said that facing the current economic crisis requires "economic development, above all, the innovation component of that development," citing infrastructure development in particular.

People's Daily reported Oct. 13, that 5 of the 12 agreements, whose signing Putin and Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao witnessed, are in the energy sphere-on oil and gas, but also nuclear power cooperation. Other key areas are transportation and aerospace. (Nearly two dozen more agreements were signed by Russian and Chinese companies at a simultaneous Business Forum.) In Putin's delegation were Russian Railways CEO Vladimir Yakunin and Andrei Perminov, head of the Russian space agency Roskosmos.

As had been announced in September, by Russian Minister of Transportation Igor Levitin, Yakunin and Chinese Minister of Railways Liu signed a memorandum of understanding on "organizing and developing high-speed rail service on the territory of the Russian Federation."

According to AK&M news, the routes specified for cooperation on high-speed rail are Khabarovsk-Vladivostok (in the Far East), Moscow-Sochi, and Moscow-Nizhny Novgorod (the latter two are in European Russia). They were already planned in the Strategy for the Development of Rail Transport in the Russian Federation to the Year 2030, which was adopted in 2007-08, and which includes a rail line to the Bering Strait and a potential tunnel to Alaska; its implementation has been thrown into question by the crisis. Now, a joint Chinese-Russian working group of specialists is to be set up by Dec. 1 of this year. "The two sides intend to use the most advanced international experience to achieve maximum efficiency and profitability in passenger transport and the production of high-speed rolling stock and technologies in the Russian Federation," including technologies which China has perfected under contract from the German company Siemens, according to the report.

As highlighted by the Russian business paper Vedomosti, on the eve of Putin's visit to China, Presidents Medvedev and Hu Jintao approved a comprehensive "Russia-China 2018 Cooperation Program" for building 205 joint projects in the Russian Far East, Siberia, and northeast China, when they met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in September. Replying to a question from the Chinese press about these bilateral development programs, Putin said that "the most important areas are those involving cooperation in high technologies and trade in highly processed products."

Vladivostok: Gateway to the Pacific
En route to Beijing, Putin, Levitin, Yakunin, and First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov stopped in the Russian Pacific port city of Vladivostok. They visited the huge dig site, underway for the past four months, for the bridge being constructed between the mainland and Russky Island, where Russia will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in 2012. On Oct. 12, the Prime Minister and his entourage held a conference on APEC 2012, reviewing the 41 infrastructure projects related to it that are ongoing, and 26 more which are in various phases of feasibility study and design work.

Putin stressed that this construction of a new airport, port upgrades, roads, and bridges must not be slowed, despite the crisis. Hosting APEC "will allow Russia to strengthen its international position and develop additional contacts with our partners in the region," he said, and it provides an opportunity to "position Vladivostok as Russia's Pacific gateway and a prospective center of international cooperation." Some had opposed funding the development, Putin said, but, "it was decided that this unique opportunity for the city could not be let slip by, and that a large-scale construction program in the Far East could also be seen as an important anti-crisis measure-a way to create tens of thousands of new jobs in construction and related sectors, not only in the Far East, but essentially nationwide."

After their bilateral talks, Putin and Wen attended the Oct. 14 summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), in which China and Russia are joined by major Central Asian nations. Addressing the session, Putin advocated an increased role for the SCO in "reforming the world financial architecture." The meeting adopted a Joint Initiative on Overcoming the Consequences of the Global Financial Crisis, under which Putin said a set of SCO anti-crisis staffs would be set up. One such area of greater cooperation will be infrastructure, Putin said:

"Trade and economic cooperation cannot develop successfully without adequate infrastructure, without stable transport corridors, the construction and renovation of new border crossings, and the coordination of border crossing procedures and solution of transit issues."

There will be an SCO transport ministers meeting, in November, in Beijing.

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SHANGHAI ORGANIZATION- ANTITERRORIST OR ANTI-AMERICAN BLOCK?

The role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) cannot be approached apart from the neo- conservative and neo- Eurasian aspiration regarding the geopolitical importance of Central Asia.

The neo- Eurasians believe that the region is component part of the influence area of Moscow.

According to their vision, the enemy is USA, which wants to prevent the formation of a new multi- polar order, where Russia might take a leading position.

The neo- Eurasians are afraid of a possible “balkanization” of Eurasia.

In order to support this thesis, they evoke the opinions of the American politician, of polish origins, Zbigniew Kazimierz Brzezinski, which suggests sometimes that: “Central Asia should become a permanent conflict zone, in order to stop the apparition of anti- American block in Eurasia”.

The neoconservatives, consider that the Islamic fundamentalism, which is the enemy in the war “against terrorism”, can be avoided and removed only with the help of American military presence in the region, on a non- determined period of time.

They distinguish 3 main states which are interested to fight against the occidental influence: Russia, China and Iran. The same as Beijing or Teheran, Moscow is considered an opponent of the ideals promoted by USA.

From Uyghur to terrorism
SCO is the result of an agreement, through which China tries to reduce the sympathy of the Asian states towards the Uyghurs from the Chinese province Xinjiang. Beijing argued that supporting the insurgents, is nobody’s interest, and offered commercial stimulants, which the central Asian states, with a poor economy, couldn’t ignore.

In 1996, in Shanghai, 2 countries- The Popular Chinese Republic, Russia, Kazakhstan and Kirghizstan signed the “Treaty of growth among the military activities at the border region”, laying the bases of the “Shanghai group”. Uzbekistan got the membership only in 2001, when the objectives of the organization have been reformulated.

Today, the SCO has 4 observers: India, Iran, Pakistan and Mongolia.

After September 11^th, 2001 “Shanghai group” transformed itself into an “international antiterrorist organization”. The main job was to fight against the “spread of the militant Islamism” in Central Asia.

“Opening” and “Stability”
It seems that the “noble” intentions of SCO have been suspiciously looked at since the beginning. This is why Russia always kept mentioning that the organization is “opened to the dialogue” and is an “element of regional stability”. Russia tried to convince USA for 8 years that the organization will not transform into a military alliance, something as NATO type.

On the other hand is not a secret anymore that Russia is not so pleased with the expansion of NATO in the Baltic countries and east of Europe. The placement of the American anti- rocket shield is being perceived by Russia as a threat for the entire Asia. That is why Russia would be interested to transform SCO in a tool against the Alliance, which will stop the American influence in Central Asia. The militarization tendency of the organization is being confirmed by the growth of the investments in the army forces and also the growth of the military exercises that are being done.

The stake of the “game”
The stake that Russia and USA relied on is the control of the petroleum and gas production, as well as of the pipes which transfer these resources on the west market. The interest of USA for the Cossack as well as Caspian petroleum makes Moscow to supervise these resources through the implementation of some common projects concerning the extraction and transportation of the natural gas, together with Kazakhstan and the countries of Caucasus.

Moscow tries to play an important role in the deliverance and transportation of the fuels and also to minimize the USA influence in the area. On the other hand, USA initiated partnerships with the regimes from Central Asia, a fact that allowed them to use the aerial bases in order to maintain the troupes on their territory.

Turkey and USA could be in a conspiracy?
On the background of this geopolitical game, where Russia manages to have the control over the post- soviet countries, USA is concerned to weaken the influence of its rival.

According to the Russian experts, such a strategy has been already applied. It’s about the Agreement signed between Turkey and Armenia (the document that talks about the normalization of the relationships between these 2 countries as well as the borders’ opening), which according to the Russian experts, is a strategy of USA to weaken the Russian influence in the area.

Opening the borders, will help the diminishing of the Armenia’s dependence on Russia and will allow USA to control the region through the Turkish- Armenian approach. The Russian analysts warn that “the participation of Armenia in the American plans could lead to similar events that happened in Georgia”.

The pan- Turkish strategy
The pan- Turkism is another strategy directed against the interests of Russia in Central Asia. Applying it would allow Turkey to become the connection hall between Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia.

If USA will support this strategy, then with the help of Azerbaijan will be “connected” the authentic Turks with the central- Asian and Siberian ones. Republic of Azerbaijan includes only 1/3 of the territory of the historical Azerbaijan.

Almost 2/3 of the Azerbaijan territory is now in Iran. The idea of the Azerbaijani reunification, promoted by Turkey, is very popular now in Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, do not dispose of an outlet to the world- wide ocean, being dependent on Russia. The Azerbaijani reunification would allow the direct access through pipes from the Caspian Sea’s wet dock towards the Turkish harbors from the Mediterranean Sea, but which is an impossible fact, because there is no functional Turkish- Azerbaijan border.

Russia would lose the control over the hydrocarbons from the Caspian countries, and Turkey would gain a noticeable geo- economic and strategic position. More than that, changing the Iranian- Azerbaijani border, will make Iran to be no more an important factor in the Caucasian geopolitics. So, Iran being conscious about the pan- Turkish danger supports everyone who tries to ruin the materialization of these plans. The more Turkey- the military ally of USA, will penetrate the former Russian territories, the more hostile will Russia support the countries of pan- Turkism. The respective circumstances justify the high interest of Iran towards SCO, but also the importance that the organization (especially Russia) pays to the USA “enemy”.

Development possibilities of SCO
At the moment, SCO doesn’t have an imposing presence in Central Asia.

Moscow and Beijing, want an expansion of the organization instead, so that they could control the political and economic evolution of the area.

SCO has big chances to consolidate its positions in the close future. A positive indicator of that is the growth of the states that joined the organization as observers: Mongolia (2004), Iran (2005), Pakistan (2005) and India (2005), which already opted for the full membership status of the SCO.

The most insistent is Iran, and its adherence will prove the occidental officials that the organization intends to become a blocking tool of the American influence in Asia. Moreover, Iran is pretty tempting for SCO, as they can hold huge energetic and human resources together, and occupy 60% of the Eurasian surface.

As from the demographic potential point of view, they represent a fourth of the world population. The energetic resources of SCO cannot be denied either. Russia and Iran dispose at present of 17.6% of the world fuel resources. With the 3% of Kazakhstan and 9.5% of Africa, controlled by China in the biggest part, the organization possesses 30% of the world fuel resources. More than that, Russia holds 27% of the gas stocks, Iran- 15%, and the ex- soviet republics from Central Asia- 8%.

Russia or USA?
No doubt that Russia tries to confront USA, in spite of the assurance that it is being concerned only about the fight against terrorism. Its imposing app among the SCO, as well as the way in which it imposes itself in Central Asia, confirm this fact. Possibly, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan want a bigger opening towards west, but they are too dependent on Russia to allow them this “luxury”. Moreover, they are the ones who will have the most to lose because of the fight between Occident and Orient.

If Russia manages to keep dominating, then USA definitely will try to use different excuses in order to destabilize the political situation in the region. On the other hand, the trial to diminish the Russian influence in Central Asia could “be paid back” with interethnic conflicts, intentionally provoked and forged (Russia has enough levers for such scenarios).

Evidently, in such circumstances, SCO has all the chances to consolidate its positions in the area.

More than that, the organization will be justified to impose itself openly in front of the international community as an anti- American block in Eurasia.

Translated by Cristina Flocea

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Shanghai Cooperation Organisation SCO 上海合作组织 ШОС

The SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is a powerful organisation in eurasia. Members are Russia, China, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Mongolia and India. They form one third of the world population and the lead joint military exercices. Together they are stronger as NATO

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10 February, 2010
Sri Lanka Gets Russian Loan for Arms, Military Upgrades

Daily Times
10 February 2010

Editor's Note: Sri Lanka continues to move its SCO alliance forward as China is planning to build a naval base at the southern tip of Sri Lanka to protect a key energy corridor.

This comes at a time when Sri Lanka's parliament has been dissolved and Gen. Sarath Fonseka, the defeated electoral opponent, was detained on allegations he was plotting a coup. Gen. Fonseka fought the LTTE for decades and is credited with bringing them down for good last year.

Sri Lanka has secured a 300-million-dollar loan from Russia to upgrade its military, the foreign ministry in Colombo said on Tuesday.

“We are looking at technology transfers, including new technology for our military, new satellite technology, through this agreement,” Foreign Minister Rohitha Bogollagama said.

He said the deal was clinched during a four-day visit to Moscow by President Mahinda Rajapakse. Rajapakse and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev also discussed technology cooperation in the fields of oil exploration, renewable energy, aviation and tourism, Bogollagama said.

Bogollagama gave no details of the Russian credit, but RIA-Novosti, a Russian news agency, said Sri Lanka would have access to financing for five years to buy Russian weapons with a repayment period of 10 years.

Russia, China and Pakistan have been the main arms suppliers to Sri Lanka during the 37-year ethnic conflict with separatist Tamil Tiger rebels that ended in May after government troops wiped out its leadership.

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Ahmadinejad urges Russia, Asian nations to bolster resistance to US




"It can turn SCO into strong institution and prevent threats of domineering powers and their aggressive interference in global affairs."

Iran's president urged China, Russia and other Asian nations on Thursday to combine their economic and diplomatic clout to bolster the region's resistance to the United States. Amid a deepening feud with the West over Iran's nuclear program, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made the appeal at a summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or SCO, which groups China, Russia and nine Central and South Asian nations. Noting that the group comprised some of the world's biggest energy producers and consumers, Ahmadinejad said greater cooperation among members would produce a powerful bloc.

"It can turn the SCO into a strong, influential economic, political and trading institution at both regional and international levels and prevent the threats of domineering powers and their aggressive interference in global affairs," Ahmadinejad said at an open session. Ahmadinejad's remarks were the most strident, but not the only call for the grouping to stand up to the West and emerge as an alternative to US-led multinational organizations. Russian President Vladimir Putin called for closer military ties to combat terrorism. Uzbekistan's Islam Karimov criticized unnamed outside interests for sowing discord in theregion .

The rhetoric seemed likely to heighten concerns in the administration of US President George W. Bush that the Shanghai grouping is emerging as an anti-US bloc. It also comes as divisions sharpened in the UN Security Council with China and Russia resisting US and European initiatives to pressure Iran into freezing its uranium enrichment program.

Russia and China dominate the Shanghai grouping, which started tentatively a decade ago but has since gathered momentum and members. A strengthened SCO would be a new twist on a Cold War idea when the Soviet Union and Mao Zedong'sChina sought to join forces against the West. But despite the occasional jab, the group largely steered away from controversy. At the open session, leaders did not directly address the Iranian nuclear dispute, nor did a communique released afterward. They did not renew a call, issued a year ago, for a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops from bases in Central Asia.

Leaders of the core members -China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan - signed an agreement on information security and laid out plans for the next three years for fighting terrorism and separatism, a key mission of the group. Their officials also signed documents on banking cooperation and defense. But the leaders defended the group's embrace of Iran, which is an observer nation, as a positive force for stability in the region. "Our organization has been an important force that promotes peace, security and development in this region," Chinese President Hu Jintao said to the group, the leaders arrayed around tables in a large circle in a meeting hall beside Shanghai's Huangpu River.

On a more discordant note, summit participants noted with alarm Afghanistan's rising prominence as a source for narcotics and the role of coalition troops there. Uzbekistan's Karimov indirectly criticized the US-led forces in Afghanistan for failing to stop the drug trade and improve security in the country. Afghan President Hamid Karzai, however, said the continued presence of international forces was necessary to allow Afghanistan to rebuild from decades of war and civil strife. "I have full confidence the countries in ourregion will concur with me and continue to support us," Karzai said. While security issues produced friction, summit leaders agreed that future stability in the region relied as much on economic opportunity as counterterrorism.

China's Hu called on SCO countries to simplify customs rules, improve transportation links and reach agreements on protecting investments in each other's territories. Hu's comments highlighted China's growing role as an economic force in Central Asia as both a consumer of the region's oil and gas and as an investor. He said that China had made good on a pledge two years ago to provide US$900 million (€716 million) in export credits to SCO countries.

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SCO begins expanding memberships and military activities

Rajaram Panda, June 21, 2012

The organisation has gradually expanded its activities and also accepted observer members.

The 12th summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit meeting was held in Beijing on June 6-7, 2012.

It came out with several notable outcomes, the most significant among them being the unanimous rejection of military intervention by any country as a way to resolve international hotspot issues, including Syria and Iran’s nuclear issue. The leaders recognised that their own countries’ stability is inherently linked to the stability in troubled regions. They pointed to the mood of pessimism over Afghanistan's potential to remain stable after the ISAF recall in 2014 as an example of why military interventions do not work.

China denied the possibility that the SCO would ever evolve into a military and political bloc. Indeed, SCO’s charter mandates that the organisation will remain one of non-alliance, non-confrontation, not targeting at any third country or organisation and openness to outside parties. China described the SCO’s mission as a quest for a new model of partnership for regional organisation.

Economic agreement

The organisation was born in 1996 out of an economic agreement among Russia, China, and three Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan in a meeting in Shanghai. Uzbekistan joined the group during the Moscow summit on June 15, 2001 in which the group was promoted to an organisation named as the SCO.

Since then, the SCO has expanded its scope from economic cooperation to include security and military issues as well.

The organisation has gradually expanded its activities, including accepting observer members.

In the latest meeting, Afghanistan was accepted as a new observer, thereby increasing the number of the organisation’s observers to five, which includes Iran, India, Mongolia, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Belarus and Sri Lanka are dialogue partners.

Regional economic cooperation has been increasing rapidly since the six member countries signed a document to promote their trade ties. The potential for further economic cooperation has its challenges since the members have different development levels and plans. As it transpired at the Beijing summit, the organisation plays a crucial role in facing challenges together. Finance, manufacturing, tourism, and infrastructure are particularly primed for more cooperation.

The Beijing summit coincided with major global developments, including the beginning of Vladimir Putin’s third term in office as the President of Russia. Iran was also able to use the summit’s opportunity to give voice to its positions on various issues. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad made several proposals at the summit, including: strengthening convergence among international and regional countries pursuing justice.

The most important outcome of the summit was its final statement. The prominent feature of the statement was the SCO’s rejection to deployment of Nato missile shield in the region. The heads of states also called for peaceful solution to the Middle East problems, thus rejecting any military intervention in Syria. Other important highlights of the final statement were supporting Iran’s right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, emphasis on fighting terrorism, opposition to the US unilateralism and accepting Afghanistan as a new observer.

Russia and China have long seen the SCO as a way to counter US influence in Central Asia and hope to play a significant role in Afghanistan’s future development. Both China and Russia are using the SCO to blunt US dominance of global affairs and shielded Syria from international moves to halt its crackdown on a 15-month uprising. Indeed, China’s growing economic dominance in Central Asia is already visible.

Despite all the claimed success over the past decade, SCO faces several challenges ahead. First: Though in theory the members and observes put together would account for about one-third of the world’s population with great capacities and the organisation has big potential for playing an active role in international developments, in practice its role remained constrained by the fact that important countries such as India, Pakistan and Iran are still observer members and their requests for permanent membership is yet to be accepted.

The SCO is neither anti-US like the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War, nor has it an economic identity with centralised programmes like Comecon which was dissolved after the disintegration of the former Soviet Union. Lastly, Iran’s membership issue is also a contentious one. Russia announced clearly that Iran cannot join the SCO as long as its nuclear issue has not been resolved. In other words, resolutions against Iran bar its membership. The SCO’s identity issue may possibly be resolved if the states with observer status are accepted as full members. These are some of the critical issues that SCO faces and its relevance in the future is contingent upon how it addressed to the above issues.

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Turkey joins the SCO, China, Russia-led security bloc

By Dmitry Solovyov | Reuters – Fri, Apr 26, 2013

• 
  View PhotoReuters/Reuters - Turkey's Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan makes a speech during the Global Alcohol Policy Symposium in Istanbul April 26, 2013. REUTERS/Murad Sezer

By Dmitry Solovyov

ALMATY (Reuters) - NATO member Turkey signed up on Friday to became a "dialogue partner" of a security bloc dominated by China and Russia, and declared that its destiny is in Asia.

"This is really a historic day for us," Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said in Kazakhstan's commercial capital Almaty after signing a memorandum of understanding with Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Secretary General Dmitry Mezentsev.

"Now, with this choice, Turkey is declaring that our destiny is the same as the destiny of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) countries."

China, Russia and four Central Asian nations - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan - formed the SCO in 2001 as a regional security bloc to fight threats posed by radical Islam and drug trafficking from neighboring Afghanistan.

Since then, Central Asia's former imperial master Russia has watched with unease China's economic expansion in the resource-rich region, with Beijing investing billions of dollars in oil and gas and issuing large loans to local governments.

Turkey has displayed interest in closer ties with the SCO at a time when it is upset by the slow progress of accession talks with the European Union.

Ankara began talks on joining the EU in 2005 but has only completed one of the 35 policy areas, or "chapters", every candidate must conclude to be allowed entry due to disagreements largely over the divided island of Cyprus.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has called Turkey's wait to join the bloc "unforgivable" and has accused Brussels of not being a fair or genuine negotiating partner.

While China vies with Russia and the West for access to Central Asia's vast natural resources, some analysts view the SCO as a potential counter-balance to NATO.

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan speak Turkic languages, and while pledging to cooperate with the SCO economically and in fighting terrorist threats and drug trade together, Davutoglu stressed common historic roots.

"Turkey will be part of a family, which is composed of the countries which lived together not for centuries - for millennia," he said.

Turkey's "dialogue partner" status, also granted to Sri Lanka and ex-Soviet state Belarus, is below that of observer status held by India, Pakistan, Mongolia, Iran and Afghanistan which participate in SCO meetings but have no right to vote.

Davutoglu, upbeat and smiling, stressed however that this status was "just the beginning".

"I hope at the next summit in (the Kyrgyz capital) Bishkek we will be present, as well as at ministerial meetings," Davutoglu said. "This is the beginning of a long way, walking together, hand in hand and shoulder to shoulder."

(Editing by Michael Roddy)

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In the past years Iran has shown a big interest in SCO. So I am wondering when they will be premitted to join? I guess thats when the other shoe will drop.

[Ryan Ruck]

We've been having problems with Turkey ever since they started going more hardline Muslim.

They used to be a reliable ally in the Middle East. This does not bode well for the future of Incirlik Air Base, then again the military has had this in mind for a while.

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Strategic shift: Turkey joins the China, Russia led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

Tags: SCO | Shanghai Cooperation Organisation | Turkey joins SCO | China | Russia | Turkey | Central Asia | NATO | India | Pakistan


Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (R) and Secretary-General of SCO Dmitry Mezentsev.Reuters

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NATO member Turkey signed up on Friday to became a "dialogue partner" of a security bloc dominated by China and Russia, and declared that its destiny is in Asia.

"This is really a historic day for us," Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said in Kazakhstan's commercial capital Almaty after signing a memorandum of understanding with Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Secretary General Dmitry Mezentsev.

"Now, with this choice, Turkey is declaring that our destiny is the same as the destiny of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) countries."

China, Russia and four Central Asian nations - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan - formed the SCO in 2001 as a regional security bloc to fight threats posed by radical Islam and drug trafficking from neighbouring Afghanistan.

Since then, Central Asia's former imperial master Russia has watched with unease China's economic expansion in the resource-rich region, with Beijing investing billions of dollars in oil and gas and issuing large loans to local governments.

Turkey has displayed interest in closer ties with the SCO at a time when it is upset by the slow progress of accession talks with the European Union.

Ankara began talks on joining the EU in 2005 but has only completed one of the 35 policy areas, or "chapters", every candidate must conclude to be allowed entry due to disagreements largely over the divided island of Cyprus.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan has called Turkey's wait to join the bloc "unforgivable" and has accused Brussels of not being a fair or genuine negotiating partner.

While China vies with Russia and the West for access to Central Asia's vast natural resources, some analysts view the SCO as a potential counter-balance to NATO.

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan speak Turkic languages, and while pledging to cooperate with the SCO economically and in fighting terrorist threats and drug trade together, Davutoglu stressed common historic roots.

"Turkey will be part of a family, which is composed of the countries which lived together not for centuries - for millennia," he said.

Turkey's "dialogue partner" status, also granted to Sri Lanka and ex-Soviet state Belarus, is below that of observer status held by India, Pakistan, Mongolia, Iran and Afghanistan which participate in SCO meetings but have no right to vote.

Davutoglu, upbeat and smiling, stressed however that this status was "just the beginning".

"I hope at the next summit in (the Kyrgyz capital) Bishkek we will be present, as well as at ministerial meetings," Davutoglu said. "This is the beginning of a long way, walking together, hand in hand and shoulder to shoulder."

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Syria Seeks to Join Shanghai Group, BRICS - Minister


Syria Seeks to Join Shanghai Group, BRICS - Minister
© AFP 2013/ Louai Beshara

12:32 27/04/2013
Tags: Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, Omran Ahed al-Zouabi, Syria

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MOSCOW, April 27 (RIA Novosti) – Syria is seeking to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the grouping of the emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) in the future, Syria’s information minister said on Saturday.

“We would like to become one day the member of such organizations as the SCO and BRICS,” Omran Ahed al-Zouabi said at the meeting with Ilyas Umakhanov, Deputy Speaker of the Federation Council.

The minister said Syria would also like Russia to participate in the country’s reconstruction after the settlement of the Syrian crisis, which has claimed at least 70,000 lives and displaced millions in just over two years.

In the March declaration at the end of the BRICS summit in Durban, South Africa, the leaders expressed “deep concern” over the ongoing conflict in Syria and warned against any further militarization of the conflict.

Founded in 2001, the SCO comprises Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The organization consolidates efforts to counter terrorism and radicalization among member countries, and also works on other policy areas such as politics and trade.

Afghanistan, India, Iran, Mongolia and Pakistan have observer status, while Belarus, Sri Lanka and Turkey are classed as dialogue partners.

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Possible expansion for India in the SCO as America's erodes the credibility of NATO and isolates whats left of her dwindling allies.

Modi leads India to the Silk Road

August 07, 2014 12:47 IST




With Beijing having had a profound rethink on India's admission as a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the tectonic plates of the geopolitics of a massive swathe of the planet stretching from the Asia-Pacific to West Asia are dramatically shifting.


That grating noise in the Central Asian steppes will be heard far and wide -- as far as North America, says Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.

On the face of it, China has so far been reluctant about India's admission as a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

According to latest reports, Beijing has had a profound rethink.

At the SCO foreign ministers meeting last Thursday in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, a decision has been taken that the grouping will formally invite India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia as members at its next summit in September.

To be sure, Russia would be immensely pleased. A Moscow pundit promptly estimated that India's admission into the SCO will pave the way for the grouping to hold itself out as a 'centre of power in world politics.'

Make no mistake, the tectonic plates of the geopolitics of a massive swathe of the planet stretching from the Asia-Pacific to West Asia are dramatically shifting and that grating noise in the Central Asian steppes will be heard far and wide -- as far as North America.

The big question remains: What made China shift its stance?

We know that at the 90-minute meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Fortaleza, Brazil, on the sidelines of the recent BRICS summit, the subject of India's role in the SCO did come up.

Several reasons could be attributed to the 'new thinking' in Beijing. First and foremost, China may sense that under Modi's leadership, India is all set to pursue a genuinely independent foreign policy.

The idea of an 'independent foreign policy' has been a cliche in Indian discourses and has been bandied about cavalierly by many governments in India.

But the plain truth is that ever since India embarked on economic reforms a couple of decades ago, the Western industrialised world -- the US, in particular -- assumed centrality in the Indian calculus.

Subtle shifts in the country's foreign policy trajectory ensued, helped in no small measure by interest groups and lobbies in India.

This trend became much pronounced through the past decade under then prime minister Manmohan Singh's leadership and at times India seemed to be succumbing to the charms of a new form of entrapment -- of the mind.

Unsurprisingly, China's hesitation hitherto stemmed from its unspoken worry that India might work as a 'Trojan horse' for the Americans within the SCO tent, which was, of course, unacceptable since the grouping has been of critical importance to Beijing in the pursuit of its regional policies as well as for safeguarding the country's own territorial integrity and national security.

It is from such a perspective that Modi's imprimatur that is already visible in India's foreign policies needs to be judged. Clearly, the compass of India's foreign policy is being reset.

Modi has taken to the BRICS like fish to water, which surprised most Indian observers who were visualising that the interest groups most vociferously backing his candidature in the parliamentary poll in April would expect him to follow a 'pro-American' foreign policy, driven also by the craving to adopt a muscular approach to India's problematic relationships with China and Pakistan.

However, Modi's meetings on the sidelines of the BRICS summit with Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin brought out his conviction that India's long-term interests are best served by forging closer strategic partnerships with these two world powers.

Again, most expectedly, instead of beating war drums, Modi let loose peace doves into the South Asian skies.

And, least of all, came his audacious decision to demand that Delhi cannot ratify the World Trade Organisation's so-called trade facilitation agreement if it jeopardised India's food security.

Modi took this decision in the national interest, unperturbed by the fact that he is due to visit the US and anticipating that it will be seen as an unhelpful act by the Barack Obama administration and will annoy the Washington establishment and American business lobbies.

What emerges out of all these is that Modi has a world vision as regards the co-relation of forces internationally today and can fathom where it is that India's core interests would lie.

Modi is a reclusive and enigmatic personality and has spoken hardly anything on world politics, but he seems to have thought through a great deal in the privacy of his mind. That much is a safe guess.

Suffice to say, Modi supported the emergence of the BRICS development bank with great deliberation, knowing fully well that such a move challenges the dominance of the US dollar in the world economy and will seriously undermine the Bretton Woods system that provided a vital underpinning for the advancement and preservation of the United States' global hegemony for the past several decades.

If one ventures to put an intellectual construct on such trends as are available in these past 70 days that might eventually go into a 'Modi Doctrine', it would probably consist of the following elements:

• Modi has a pronounced 'India-first' approach, which is a rooted belief as well.
• But he is not dogmatic when it comes to the pursuit of India's national interests.
• Nor is it divested of emotions. The human factor is obvious from his trademark slogan, 'Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas' (meaning, inclusive development) and he visualises the foreign policy as an extension of national policies.
• India needs help for development from all available sources and there is willingness to source it without pride or prejudice.
• India needs a friendly external environment that is conducive to development and acts as a buffer for its national security. Modi places great store on regional cooperation.
• Modi visualises that India's 'influence' in its region is critically dependent on its capacity to carry the small neighbours along on the path of growth and prosperity that would make them genuine stakeholders -- rather than by demanding respect or insisting on 'influence' on the basis of its pre-eminence in the region as a military and economic power and through 'muscle-flexing'.
• He reposes confidence in the country's inherent advantages as a regional power and is not paranoid about any 'string of pearls' chocking India.
• Modi believes in promoting India's commonality of interests with other emerging powers that also have been denied their due role in the global political and economic architecture, which was erected by the West out of the debris of World War II and has become archaic, but remains impervious to change and reform.

The above elements are more or less visible and their interplay presents an engaging sight.

The dire predictions regarding the quintessential Modi have proved to be largely baloney -- that, for instance, a nasty confrontation between India and Pakistan was inevitable once Modi took over as prime minister.

Or that, China's PLA would 'test' Modi's grit by pitching a tent or two on the disputed Indian territory.

But nothing of the sort has happened. Discerning analysts, on the contrary, have noted some accommodative attitudes on China's part toward India in the most recent period.

Similarly, it is China that Modi has engaged most intensively so far.

A large corpus of Indian pundits have been emphatically predicting that Modi would form an axis with his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe to counter Beijing's 'assertiveness' in the Asia-Pacific.

Curiously, however, by the time Modi gets around to seeing Obama (or Abe), he would have twice met Xi already.

Coming back to India's impending membership of the SCO, there are three salients that draw attention.

First, the timing of the SCO decision to admit India; secondly, how SCO is poised to evolve; and, third, what India can make out of its SCO membership. Each needs some elaboration.


During his visit to New Delhi last week, United States Secretary of State John Kerry (in image, left, with Prime Minister Modi and Foreign Minister Sushma Swaraj) was asked at a media interaction where India would stand in Washington's scheme of things as regards its recent sanctions against Russia.

Kerry accepted that he was disappointed but appeared resigned to India's stance. 'We would obviously welcome India joining in with us with respect to that (sanctions). But it is up to them. It is India's choice.'

It does not need much ingenuity to figure out that the SCO is taking the decision to admit India at a defining moment in the post-Cold War era politics.

India's SCO membership is fructifying hardly days before Modi's first-ever meeting with Obama. The point is, the SCO is also taking a calculated decision to invite India to become a full member.

The backdrop to the SCO decision is extremely relevant. The US is pursuing a dual containment policy toward Russia and China, the two prime movers of the SCO. The US, on the other hand, has been assiduously wooing India as a strategic ally.

From the American viewpoint, India's SCO membership will inevitably impact the future trajectory of the US-Indian strategic partnership even as India is unavailable as 'counterweight' against China or as an accomplice to 'isolate' Russia.

India being a major power in Asia, its policy of 'non-alignment' grates against the US's rebalance strategy.

On a more fundamental plane, it needs to be understood that if the SCO has often been called the 'NATO of the East', it was not without reason -- although the grouping is far from a military alliance in the classic sense.

The SCO has disallowed a security vacuum appearing in Central Asia, which NATO might have seized as alibi to step in. Put differently, so long as the SCO is around, NATO's eastward expansion beyond the Caucasus remains blocked.

Meanwhile, it also needs to be factored in that the SCO and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation work shoulder to shoulder on regional security.
The two organisations challenge the US strategy to project NATO as a global security organisation.

The admission of India, Pakistan, Iran and Mongolia constitutes a major setback for America's regional strategies.

For one thing, an expanded SCO provides 'strategic depth' for Russia. The US and European Union's sanctions against Russia will be rendered even more toothless.

It weakens the American hand in the negotiations vis-a-vis Iran insofar as the sanctions regime aimed at isolating Iran becomes unsustainable.

It debilitates America's 'pivot' strategy in Asia; it diminishes its capacity to dictate terms to Afghanistan (or Pakistan).

In strategic terms, the stunning reality is that by the end of this year, the SCO will have as members four nuclear powers plus one 'threshold power'.

In geopolitical terms, the SCO will be stepping out of Central Asia and wetting its toes in the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf.

It is entirely conceivable that at some point sooner rather than later the SCO countries may move toward trading in their national currencies, creating banking institutions to fund intra-regional projects and forming preferential trade regimes.

Needless to say, with India, Pakistan and Iran inside the SCO tent, the grouping becomes a lead player in Afghanistan.

The SCO's surge severely cramps the ability of the US to manipulate the forces of radical Islam and terrorism as instruments of regional policies in Central Asia and Afghanistan.



No doubt, from the Afghan perspective, NATO ceases to be the only show in town. This can only strengthen Afghanistan's independence and enable that country to regain its national sovereignty.

An enlarged SCO cannot but view with disquiet the US and NATO's game plan to establish military bases in Afghanistan and to deploy the missile defence system in the Hindu Kush.

In sum, the induction of India, Pakistan and Iran would become a game-changer for the SCO. For the first time in modern history, a collective security organisation would be taking shape in a huge landmass on the planet inhabited by some three billion people.

It would significantly boost the impetus toward multi-polarity in world politics by championing the pivotal role of the UN in upholding international law.

How can India make use of its SCO membership? There are four or five directions in which Indian diplomacy can hope to explore new frontiers. The SCO chronicle provides some useful pointers.

Since its inception in the mid-1990s, the SCO provided a platform for Russia, China and Central Asian States to lay to rest the ghosts of the past, namely, the bitter legacy of the Soviet era animosities.

The SCO offered a new pattern of relationship based on equality and shared concerns and commonality of interests that, in turn, helped create trust and confidence leading to the resolution of their border disputes and the harmonisation of their regional security objectives.

There is much food for thought here for India. A window of opportunity opens for Indian diplomats to work with China and Pakistan in a similar spirit as China did with its erstwhile Soviet-era adversaries.

Again, it is no small matter that the army chiefs or spy chiefs of India, China and Pakistan would get to meet and interact within the SCO tent on a regular basis within an institutionalised framework, exchange notes and begin seeking solutions to regional problems.

At the very least, the chances of an India-Pakistan turf war breaking out in Afghanistan would minimise, which would encourage Pakistan, hopefully, to craft a new course jettisoning its obsession with 'strategic depth'.

Curiously, the SCO membership makes Indians and Pakistanis comrades-in-arms in stabilising Afghanistan. Of course, such a turn of events cannot but have positive fallouts on the overall climate of India-Pakistan relationship.

Again, the SCO enables India to rev up its regional policies and it is no small gain that regional security is not held hostage by the US’s unpredictable and capricious policies toward Afghanistan.

Finally, the Silk Road as such would get a massive fillip and within the SCO framework, India could aspire to gain greater access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.

India's energy security gets strengthened, too. The time may have come for the creation of an SCO energy club, an idea first mooted by Putin a decade ago.

New possibilities arise for initiating trans-regional energy projects under the auspices of the SCO, such as the Iran-Pakistan-India gas pipeline.

In overall terms, the SCO membership makes the prevailing international situation highly favourable for India's overall development and its rise as a global power.

The best thing about the SCO is that it is not prescriptive and India can preserve its 'strategic autonomy'. Nor is the SCO directed against any country in the world community.

In short, the member-States are entirely at liberty to pursue their foreign policies attuned to their respective national priorities.

That is to say, SCO membership does not stand in the way of India deepening and expanding its multi-faceted cooperation with the US.

On the contrary, it only enhances India's capacity to negotiate a relationship with the US that is truly based on equal footing.

Suffice to say, SCO membership gives added raison d'etre and verve to India's non-aligned policies.

Through the six decades or so since the idea of non-alignment was born, the world has changed phenomenally and India too has transformed beyond recognition. But the idea of non-alignment as such continues to have great relevance for India.

The intellectual challenge for India's diplomacy today lies in reinterpreting the idea of non-alignment in tune with the spirit of our times, which is characterised by multi-polarity in international politics, so as to meet our country's needs in the coming period as an emerging power.

That is also what Jawaharlal Nehru would have expected Modi to do as his worthy successor presiding over India's tryst withdestiny at a crucial juncture in world politics.

All things considered, therefore, India's SCO membership would signify that the Modi government is charioting India toward a new multi-polar world order where the country's political and diplomatic options will multiply.

[Ryan Ruck]

China Hosts Largest Ever Military Drill With Russia, Other SCO Nations

August 24, 2014

China’s Inner Mongolia is hosting the biggest military drill ever held by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The training of 7,000 servicemen from five SCO member states is set to test troops’ effectiveness in fighting terrorism.

The Peace Mission-2014 drill, being conducted from August 24 to 29 in China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, was declared open by Deputy Chief of Chinese People's Liberation Army's General Staff Wang Ning, who is supervising the military training.

The war games have attracted a record number of troops and military hardware, never previously gathered in one place before by the SCO member states.

Armed forces from China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan have come to the Zhurihe firing range to test deploy everything that might be needed to eliminate a considerable terrorist force.

Apart from infantry troops and special forces, the international task force has been strengthened with air defense systems, radio-electronic warfare units and aviation.

The Russian army has come to China with a tactical group of the 36th Motor Rifle Brigade from the Eastern Military District and an aviation wing of the third Command of Air Force and Air Defense Troops.

The Russian contingent at Peace Mission-2014 consists of 1,000 plus servicemen, 60 armored vehicles, (including 40 BMP-2 fully amphibious crawling traction infantry combat vehicles), 13 main T-72 battle tanks, more than 20 artillery and missile systems, such as self-propelled artillery SAU 2S3M guns, multiple BM-21 rocket launch systems, more than 60 vehicles of different assignments, 8 Mi-8 AMTSh helicopter gunships, 4 Sukhoi Su-25 assault jets and two Il-76 military transport airplanes.

According to the scenario, the international task force will eliminate terrorist groups in various situations and environments.

[vector7]

T-99G in Peace Mission 2014




















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