Fighter Gap Expands Under Latest Estimate

[Ryan Ruck]

Fighter Gap Expands Under Latest Estimate

New figure nearly doubles projected plane shortage

The Navy has vastly expanded its estimate of the size of the so-called "fighter gap," putting the looming shortfall of fighter planes at 243 aircraft. Officials on Capitol Hill say it could exceed 300.

The new estimates show the Navy and Marine Corps have a shortage of about 15 aircraft this year. That figure will expand steadily to 50 next year and reach a peak of 243 in 2018, according to an April report from the Congressional Research Service, which cited numbers provided by the Navy.

That's nearly double the Navy's previous estimates, which put the peak shortfall at about 125 for the Navy and Marine Corps.

The gap comes as the aging fleet of F/A-18 Hornets wears out faster than new, next-generation F-35C Lightning II Joint Strike Fighters will arrive to replace them.

The Navy revisions came amid concerns that the Hornets will not be able to last until the 10,000 flight-hour point but instead will have to retire after about 8,600 flight hours, the report said.

The Hornets were designed to fly 6,000 hours, and the Navy extended that life span to 8,000. Stretching it to 10,000 will cost an additional $22 million per aircraft, according to the report.

The size of the pending shortage is driving the debate over whether to buy more Boeing-made F/A-18E/F Super Hornets or wait until the Lockheed Martin-made F-35C comes online, scheduled for 2015.

Navy officials have been reluctant to discuss the fighter gap, saying it will be resolved in the upcoming Quadrennial Defense Review, a militarywide strategic assessment.

Wide Range Of Gap Guesses

Estimates on the shortfall can vary dramatically.

Some legislators say the gap is roughly 50 this year and 312 at its peak. The Navy's analysis does not consider the current cost-cutting measure of funding only 39 aircraft per wing rather than the Navy's stated requirement of 44 per wing, a congressional staffer told Navy Times.

Meanwhile, a top-level Pentagon planner told lawmakers at a private briefing on April 7 that the Defense Department's Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation has concluded that there is no strike fighter shortfall at all, the congressional staffer said.

Lawmakers were skeptical of that assessment.

"We said 'OK, where's the analysis?' And they have yet to come up with it," the congressional staffer said. "Basically, we want to see their homework."

The Navy and top Pentagon leaders appear to be at odds over the future of the Navy's fighter fleet.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he wants to step up purchases of the F-35C.

Meanwhile, many observers believe the Navy would rather purchase more Super Hornets and cut its buy of JSFs, although service officials say they are supportive of the JSF program.

Boeing has offered to sell the Navy 170 Super Hornets for about $49.9 million per aircraft.

Lockheed Martin said it also has the capacity to move up the schedule for the F-35C. "If asked, we do have the capacity to accelerate the production," spokesman John Kent said.

However, there are no plans to accelerate the schedule, said Capt. Wade Knudson, the Navy's Joint Strike Fighter program manager.

The Navy's stated requirement for strike fighter jets — now and in the future — is 1,056, the congressional staffer said.

Allowing the strike fighter fleet to decline by more than 30 percent would have a massive impact on the Navy's ability to maintain adequate carrier air wings to satisfy the needs of 11 carriers. By 2018, "you are looking at about five aircraft carriers with no airplanes," said Rep. Todd Akin, R-Mo., whose home state includes Boeing's headquarters.

"Either you are assuming that we are going to get by with fewer aircraft carriers or we're not going to have a full 44-aircraft [wing] on an aircraft carrier," Akin said at a May 13 hearing.

[Ryan Ruck]

U.S. Navy Takes Aim at 'Fighter Gap'

19 Feb 2010

Each U.S. Navy strike fighter squadron will lose some of its 10 or 12 aircraft between deployments - one of several details emerging about the service's plans to ease an upcoming shortage of strike fighters.

The so-called fighter gap is coming as older F/A-18 A through D-model Hornet aircraft reach the end of their operational lives, not enough new E and F Strike Fighters are built to replace them and production of the later F-35 Lightning Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) lags.

In a draft version of an upcoming statement to Congress obtained by Defense News, Adm. Gary Roughead, the chief of naval operations, writes that the reduction in squadron size to "the minimum required" will take place during "non-deployed phases."

Navy Hornet squadrons already have been reduced to 10 aircraft per squadron. Super Hornet squadrons flying E and F models generally have 12 aircraft each.

The service will accelerate the transition of five F/A-18C squadrons to E or F models using available Super Hornets, the draft statement said, "and will transition two additional legacy squadrons using Super Horner attrition reserve aircraft."

Navy officials would not comment on the impact of using spare aircraft to fill out operational squadrons.

"We will not discuss information in a draft," said Roughead spokesman Cmdr. Charlie Brown.

The fighter gap, forecast to peak around 2016, has been a matter of debate for a couple years, and was a major focus for requirements and budget planners over the past year. Planners, according to Navy Undersecretary Bob Work, had "pretty much eliminated any perceived strike fighter shortfall" in developing a new aviation procurement plan.

But a Pentagon restructuring of the JSF program announced Feb. 1 pushed back the service entry dates for the plane, which is being built in separate versions for the Air Force, Marine Corps and Navy. The move reopened the gap issue for the Navy.

"We felt very comfortable that we had a good, solid plan prior to the JSF restructuring," Work said Feb. 2. "And the JSF restructuring will cause us to look at it one more time."

Adm. Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, told Congress Feb. 3, "The Navy and the Marine Corps have really worked hard to mitigate this strike fighter shortfall, and I give them a lot of credit for that." The services, Mullen said, reduced the shortfall from about 245 aircraft "down to a very low number" prior to the restructuring.

New in-service dates for the JSF have not been announced. Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn said the system design and development phase of the program would be pushed back one year to 2015. Air Combat Command chief Gen. William Fraser said Feb. 19 his service is re-evaluating the JSF's in-service date.

Roughead, along with Navy Secretary Ray Mabus and Marine Corps Commandant Gen. Jim Conway, were to appear before the House Armed Services Committee on Feb. 24 and testify the following day before the Senate Armed Services Committee.