Kyrgyzstan Uprising: Did Moscow Subvert a U.S. Ally?

[Ryan Ruck]

Kyrgyzstan Uprising: Did Moscow Subvert a U.S. Ally?

April 8, 2010

Members of the besieged government of Kyrgyzstan suspect that Moscow precipitated the violent upheaval that has swept the former Soviet republic in Central Asia. Already scores of people have been killed and hundreds more wounded after troops opened fire on protesters, who in turn overpowered the police, stormed and looted government buildings and forced President Kurmanbek Bakiev to flee the country. On Wednesday, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin denied any involvement by his country in the turmoil after his Kyrgyz counterpart said that Putin gave the go-ahead to the revolt. But whether or not the Kremlin urged the Kyrgyz opposition to call its supporters into the streets, Moscow has a lot to gain and Washington a lot to lose from the bloody upheaval that has ensued.

For several years, Kyrgyzstan has been stuck in a tug-of-war between the two Cold War enemies, frequently making the landlocked state the center of geopolitical strategizing. The Americans have been pushing to maintain their cherished military base in the north of Kyrgyzstan, without which U.S. supply lines to the nearby war in Afghanistan would be significantly hampered. Russia, meanwhile, has lobbied to kick the American military out of what it still sees as its sphere of influence in the territories of the former Soviet Union. (See pictures of the disorder in Kyrgyzstan.)

The struggle came to a head in February of last year, when the Kyrgyz handed the U.S. military base an eviction notice just weeks after Russia provided the impoverished country with a $2 billion loan and $150 million in aid. Russia denied any link between the two events, but U.S. officials saw it differently. Washington soon reached a deal with Kyrgyz leaders to keep the base open - in exchange for a tripling of the yearly rental to $60 million, among other conditions.(See Kyrgyzstan's role in getting U.S. troops to Afghanistan.)

In a March 5 interview with TIME, an Obama Administration senior official said it had been a close call for the U.S. "That we have the Manas base in Kyrgyzstan is a great achievement," he said. "Russia didn't want to allow us to have that. They put down $2 billion to get us out. But Obama had very frank discussions with [Russian President Dmitri] Medvedev. He said, If you believe we have a common enemy in Afghanistan, then this is going to help us fight that common enemy. Had we lost that, it would have been a major blow. It is a major hub for getting our soldiers in and out of there."

Since then, Russian-Kyrgyz relations have deteriorated, a process that culminated in Wednesday's declaration by Kyrgyz Prime Minister Daniyar Usenov that one of the heads of the opposition had met with Putin before going forward with the revolt. Usenov told a press conference on Tuesday in the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek that opposition leader Temir Sariyev claimed during an interrogation that he had received assurances from Putin of Russia's support for the opposition.

Putin vehemently denied the allegation at a press conference in the Russian city of Smolensk on Wednesday, saying the events in Kyrgyzstan had caught him by surprise. He added, however, that Kyrgyz President Bakiev had made many mistakes since coming to power in what is known as the Tulip Revolution five years ago. "When President Bakiev came to power, he very harshly criticized the deposed President, [Askar] Akayev, for his family values, for the fact that his relatives had positions throughout the Kyrgyz economy. I have the impression that Mr. Bakiev has been stepping on the same rakes," he said, alluding to the fact that Bakiev appointed his family members, including his son, to top government posts. A Kremlin source told Russia's Interfax news agency on Wednesday that Bakiev "would not be welcome in Moscow."

At the press conference in Bishkek, the Kyrgyz Prime Minister also said he had spoken on Tuesday with the Russian ambassador to Kyrgyzstan and urged him to rein in the negative coverage of Kyrgyzstan in the Russian press. Indeed, the shifting attitudes in Russia toward the Kyrgyz leadership were felt weeks ago, when several broadcasters and newspapers in Russia began airing scathing attacks against Bakiev's government. Among them, the state-run radio station Golos Rossii, or Voice of Russia, said the Kyrgyz government had "shown itself to be totally ineffective" in a report on March 24, apparently timed to the fifth anniversary of the Tulip Revolution.

The leaders of the new revolution now unfolding in Kyrgyzstan are already claiming victory over the government, which has not yet officially resigned. Opposition leaders have taken over key government buildings, including the headquarters of the security forces and the national television station, which they were using on Wednesday to call more protesters into the streets, urging citizens to rally for "freedom or death." As of Wednesday night, the Kyrgyz Health Ministry had confirmed 40 deaths amid the violence, and gruesome images of bodies in the streets and badly beaten police officers filled the global airwaves.

The U.S. State Department was quick to issue a statement saying its air base in Kyrgyzstan was "functioning normally." "We are continuing to monitor the circumstances. We continue to think the government remains in power," State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said in a statement on Wednesday. But that view is beginning to seem untenable: Bakiev has already fled the country, and the opposition says it is forming a new government. How amenable that government would be to the U.S. presence in Kyrgyzstan remains to be seen. What is certain is that the struggle for influence between Russia and the U.S. may again heat up in Central Asia.

[American Patriot]

This didn't make any news I heard.

Violent upheaval?

Scores killed?

Hundreds wounded?

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Kyrgyzstan declares emergency in southern city

11 Jun 2010 00:14:22 GMT

Source: Reuters

* Government declares state of emergency, curfew

* Hundreds wounded in violence

* Osh a volatile city in south of country

* Power base of exiled former president

(Adds interim government quotes, details, changes dateline)

At least 46 killed in southern Kyrgyz ethnic riots

By Hulkar Isamova

OSH, Kyrgyzstan, June 11 (Reuters) - Kyrgyzstan declared a state of emergency in the southern city of Osh on Friday and sent in armoured vehicles after hundreds of youths smashed windows, looted shops and set fire to cars.

Southern Kyrgyzstan was the power base of Kurmanbek Bakiyev, deposed in April as president of the impoverished Central Asian country in a revolt that raised concern among regional players Russia, China and the United States.

On May 13 his supporters briefly seized government buildings in the south, defying central authorities in Bishkek.

Kyrgyzstan's interim government, led by Roza Otunbayeva, declared the state of emergency in Osh and three surrounding regions after holding an emergency meeting in the early hours of Friday, a spokesman for the government said.

"Roza Otunbayeva announced that the interim government will deploy all of its available resources and is sure that security will be provided for its citizens," the spokesman, Farid Niyazov, said by telephone.

Niyazov said between 1,000 and 3,000 people had been involved in the violence, fighting with steel bars and their bare hands in the streets.

"More than 500 people have arrived in hospital overnight with knife wounds. It's possible that one person has been killed," a doctor at a hospital in Osh told Reuters on condition of anonymity. Niyazov said no deaths had been reported.

The crowds dispersed after troops and armoured vehicles were sent into the city, Niyazov said. He said the state of emergency would remain in force until June 20 and that the interim government had imposed a night-time curfew.

Kyrgyzstan, which won independence with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, hosts both a Russian and a U.S. military base.

Political tensions between the agricultural south and the north of Kyrgyzstan exist alongside ethnic and clan rivalries. Osh lies in a particularly volatile part of Kyrgyzstan. A city of more than 200,000, it is located in the fertile Fergana Valley, where Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan meet.

In 1990, shortly before the collapse of the Soviet Union, hundreds of people were killed in ethnic clashes betweek Uzbeks and Kyrgyz near Osh.

(Additional reporrting by Olga Dzyubenko in Bishkek, writing by Robin Paxton in Almaty)

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World
Kyrgyzstan wants Russian help to stop riots

Saturday, 12 June 2010 09:44
Kyrgyzstan's interim government has appealed to Russia to send peacekeeping troops to restore order after at least 50 people were killed in ethnic riots in the south of the country.

Interim government leader Roza Otunbayeva said: 'We need the entry of outside armed forces to calm the situation down.

'We have appealed to Russia for help and I have already signed such a letter for President Dmitry Medvedev.'

The government has also appealed to retired police and army officers to travel to the southern city of Osh to prevent the clashes escalating into civil war.

'The provisional Kyrgyz government calls on retired police and military officers to contribute to the stabilisation of the situation in Osh,' said government spokesman Azimbek Beknazarov.

'The authorities will be grateful for any volunteers who are ready to help prevent civil war in the south of Kyrgyzstan,' he added.

Mr Beknazarov was speaking from the region where clashes between ethnic Kyrgyz and ethnic Uzbeks broke out on Thursday.

The appeal comes as the health ministry issued an updated death toll from the violence, saying at least 50 people have been killed and 650 injured in the clashes.

The previous death toll had stood at 45.

Mr Beknazarov said the situation there remains 'very difficult' despite the state of emergency declared by the government and a curfew on Osh and neighbouring districts.

'Exchanges of fire are continuing and you can hear them everywhere, several buildings are in flames, people are frightened,' he said.

Police officers and soldiers deployed to the troubled zone are exhausted, falling asleep on the roads they were meant to be watching, he added.

'We won't have enough people on the ground to ensure security over the next two days, if we don't get more help,' he warned.

The violence, thought to have been set off by a fight between youths from the different ethnic groups on Thursday, quickly escalated into street battles in which people fought using improvised weapons but also firearms.

It comes some two weeks before a referendum on the constitution, which is scheduled for 27 June.

Since last April's uprising, which ousted President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and left 87 people dead, foreign leaders have warned of the danger of civil war.

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Kyrgyz leader asking for Russian peacekeepers to help quell violence
CNN ^ | 6/12/2010

The Kyrgyz interim leader has asked for Russian peacekeepers to help stop ethnic violence in the south of the country, a government spokesman confirmed on Saturday.

Kyrgyz interim government's press officer Farid Niyazov said the country's leader, Roza Otunbayeva, announced that an official request for the assistance be sent to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

(Excerpt) Read more at edition.cnn.com ...

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Hide and watch...

No Russian troops to be sent to quell Kyrgyzstan riots

Nation in chaos; Russia turns down plea for immediate military help

Ethnic rioting leaves scores dead, more than 1,000 wounded

D. Dalton Bennett / AP Ethnic Uzbeks gather near the Kyrgyz-Uzbek border in southern Kyrgyzstan on Saturday. Thousands fled to the border in panic as ethnic violence rose to the nation's highest level since the former president was toppled in April. View related photos

Vide

updated 6:49 p.m. CT, Sat., June 12, 2010

OSH, Kyrgyzstan - Kyrgyzstan asked Russia for military help Saturday to quell ethnic rioting in the central Asian nation, but the Kremlin refused to immediately send troops and offered only humanitarian assistance. Nearly 70 people were reported killed and 945 wounded in the violence.

Interim President Roza Otunbayeva acknowledged that her government has lost control over the south as its main city of Osh, the country's second largest, slid further into chaos and thousands of minority Uzbeks fled to the border. Her government sent troops and armor into the city of 250,000, but they have failed to stop the rampage.

Otunbayeva asked Russia early Saturday to send in troops, but the Kremlin responded that it wouldn't meddle into what it described as Kyrgyzstan's internal conflict.

"It's a domestic conflict, and Russia now doesn't see conditions for taking part in its settlement," Kremlin spokeswoman Natalya Timakova said in Moscow without elaborating. She added in a statement that Russia will consult other members of a security pact of ex-Soviet nations on the possibility of sending a joint peacekeeping force to Kyrgyzstan.

Timakova said the government would send a plane to Kyrgyzstan to deliver humanitarian supplies and help evacuate the victims of the violence.

Kyrgyzstan hosts both U.S. and Russian military air bases, but they are in the north. Russia has about 500 troops there, mostly air force personnel, and would have to airlift more if it decides to help. The United States has the Manas air base in the capital, Bishkek, that is a crucial supply hub for the coalition fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan, but it was not known if interim government had asked for any U.S. military help.

Much of central Osh was on fire Saturday, and the sky was black with smoke. Gangs of young Kyrgyz men armed with firearms and metal bars marched on minority Uzbek neighborhoods and set homes on fire. Stores were looted and the city was running out of food.

'We need outside forces'

Thousands of terrified ethnic Uzbeks were rushing toward the nearby border with Uzbekistan. An Associated Press reporter there saw the bodies of children killed in the panicky stampede.

"The situation in the Osh region has spun out of control," Otunbayeva told reporters. "Attempts to establish a dialogue have failed, and fighting and rampages are continuing. We need outside forces to quell confrontation."

The unrest is the worst violence since former President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was toppled in a bloody uprising in April and fled the country. It comes as a crucial test of the interim government's ability to control the country, hold a June 27 vote on a new constitution and go ahead with new parliamentary elections scheduled for October.

Otunbayeva on Saturday blamed Bakiyev's family for instigating the unrest in Osh, saying they aimed to derail the constitutional referendum.

Ethnic tensions have long simmered in the Ferghana Valley, split by whimsically carved borders among Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan that were drawn up on Soviet dictator Josef Stalin's orders. In 1990, hundreds of people were killed in a violent land dispute between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in Osh, and only the quick deployment of Soviet troops quelled the fighting.

The official toll rose Saturday to at least 69 people dead and 945 wounded, the Health Ministry said. The real figures may be much higher because doctors and human rights workers said ethnic Uzbeks were too afraid to seek hospital treatment.

State of emergency declared

At a hospital in the Nariman district, near Osh airport, an AP photographer saw the bodies of 10 people killed in fighting, and a health worker said a pregnant woman also died after being unsuccessfully treated for gunshot wounds.

In mainly Uzbek areas on the edge of Osh, residents painted the letters "SOS" on the road in a futile bid for help.

Otunbayeva said there were food shortages in Osh after virtually all stores were looted or shut. A state of emergency was declared around Osh and the government sent armored vehicles, troops and helicopters to pacify fighting that erupted late Thursday. Fighting quieted down Friday night but resumed with new strength Saturday.

"Young men in white masks are marauding and stealing from the remaining stores, offices and houses, and then setting them on fire," said Bakyt Omorkulov, a member of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, a non-governmental organization.

Omorkulov said ethnic Uzbeks called to say their houses were on fire and they were terrified. "They called us and were sobbing into the phone, but what can we do?" Omorkulov said.

From the Osh airport, where hundreds of arriving passengers were stranded, fire from heavy machine guns and automatic weapons was heard as troops tried to gain control of roads into the city.

Omurbek Suvanaliyev, a leader of the Ata-Zhurt political party that tried to organize local militia, said the warring parties even used armored vehicles in fighting.

"It's a real war," he said. "Everything is burning, and bodies are lying on the streets."

Police and residents said young Kyrgyz men with metal bars and guns were streaming into Osh by road from other parts of the country and marching toward Uzbek neighborhoods.

At one border crossing, a crowd of refugees, mostly women and children, fashioned improvised flimsy bridges out of planks and ladders to traverse the ditches marking the border.

Additional reinforcements were arriving at the Osh airport, including 100 elite police officers from Bishkek. "Our task is to restore the constitutional order," said the group's leader Nur Mambetaliyev.

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Kyrgyzstan rules troops can shoot to kill

Saturday, 12 June 2010

Kyrgyzstan's interim government has ruled its security forces can shoot to kill in a bid to quell ethnic clashes which have killed at least 77 in southern regions of Osh and Jalalabad and injured over 1,000.

The ruling is valid in the regions where a state of emergency has been declared, to defend civilians as well as in self-defence, and in case of mass or armed attacks, the decree, agreed at a late-night meeting, said.

The ruling is valid from the moment of signing until the state of emergency is revoked, it said.

Earlier, the interim government appealed to Russia to send peacekeeping troops to restore order after at least 50 people were killed in ethnic riots in the south of the country.

Interim government leader Roza Otunbayeva said: 'We need the entry of outside armed forces to calm the situation down.

'We have appealed to Russia for help and I have already signed such a letter for President Dmitry Medvedev.'

The Russian government's press service said Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Ms Otunbayeva discussed the situation in a telephone call, without giving any further details.

The government has also appealed to retired police and army officers to travel to the southern city of Osh to prevent the clashes escalating into civil war.

'The provisional Kyrgyz government calls on retired police and military officers to contribute to the stabilisation of the situation in Osh,' said government spokesman Azimbek Beknazarov.

'The authorities will be grateful for any volunteers who are ready to help prevent civil war in the south of Kyrgyzstan,' he added.

Mr Beknazarov was speaking from the region where clashes between ethnic Kyrgyz and ethnic Uzbeks broke out on Thursday.

The appeals come as the health ministry issued an updated death toll from the violence, saying at least 50 people have been killed and 650 injured in the clashes.

The previous death toll had stood at 45.

Mr Beknazarov said the situation there remains 'very difficult' despite the state of emergency declared by the government and a curfew on Osh and neighbouring districts.

'Exchanges of fire are continuing and you can hear them everywhere, several buildings are in flames, people are frightened,' he said.

Police officers and soldiers deployed to the troubled zone are exhausted, falling asleep on the roads they were meant to be watching, he added.

'We won't have enough people on the ground to ensure security over the next two days, if we don't get more help,' he warned.

The violence, thought to have been set off by a fight between youths from the different ethnic groups on Thursday, quickly escalated into street battles in which people fought using improvised weapons and firearms.

It comes two weeks before a referendum on the constitution, which is scheduled for 27 June.

Since last April's uprising, which ousted President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and left 87 people dead, foreign leaders have warned of the danger of civil war.

[Ryan Ruck]

Thanks for keeping an eye on this situation vector, I haven't had a chance to.

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Thanks for keeping an eye on this situation vector, I haven't had a chance to.

I had been ignoring it too but now Russia's pattern of manipulating former states to establish it's areas of influence to rebuild the former Soviet Union is now becoming more visible.

They are moving quickly while we have Marxist leadership in our Government.

By the time we get around to electing enough Conservatives to take the reins we will have lost our place as the leading superpower and our military will be severely weakened while being nearly bankrupt.

Perilous times are ahead for America.

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The Kyrgyzstan Crisis and the Russian Dilemma

June 15, 2010 | 0855 GMT PRINTText Resize:
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By Peter Zeihan

STRATFOR often discusses how Russia is on a bit of a roll. The U.S. distraction in the Middle East has offered Russia a golden opportunity to re-establish its spheres of influence in the region, steadily expanding the Russian zone of control into a shape that is eerily reminiscent of the old Soviet Union. Since 2005, when this process began, Russia has clearly reasserted itself as the dominant power in Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Ukraine, and has intimidated places like Georgia and Turkmenistan into a sort of silent acquiescence.

But we have not spent a great amount of time explaining why this is the case. It is undeniable that Russia is a Great Power, but few things in geopolitics are immutable, and Russia is no exception.

Russian Geography, Strategy and Demographics

Russia’s geography is extremely open, with few geographic barriers to hunker behind. There are no oceans, mountains or deserts to protect Russia from outside influences — or armies — and Russia’s forests, which might provide some measure of protection, are on the wrong side of the country. The Russian taiga is in the north and, as such, can only provide refuge for Russians after the country’s more economically useful parts have already fallen to invaders (as during the Mongol occupation).

Despite its poor geographic hand, Russia has managed to cope via a three-part strategy:

1. Lay claim to as large a piece of land as possible.
2. Flood it with ethnic Russians to assert reliable control.
3. Establish an internal intelligence presence that can monitor and, if need be, suppress the indigenous population.

Throughout Russian history, this strategy has been repeated until the Russian state reached an ocean, a mountain chain, a desert, or a foe that fought back too strongly. In many ways, the strategies of the Kremlin of 2010 are extremely similar to those of Catherine the Great, Ivan the Terrible or Joseph Stalin.

But it is no longer the 17th century, and this strategy does not necessarily play to Russia’s strengths anymore. The second prong of the strategy — flooding the region with ethnic Russians — is no longer an option because of Russia’s demographic profile. The Russian birth rate has been in decline for a century, and in the post-Cold War era, the youngest tranche of the Russian population simply collapsed. The situation transformed from an academic debate about Russia’s future to a policy debate about Russia’s present.

The bust in the birth rate in the 1990s and 2000s has generated the smallest population cohort in Russian history, and in a very few years, those post-Cold War children will themselves be at the age where they will be having children. A small cohort will create an even smaller cohort, and Russia’s population problems could well evolve from crushing to irrecoverable. Even if this cohort reproduces at a sub-Saharan African birthrate, even if the indications of high tuberculosis and HIV infections among this population cohort are all wrong, and even if Russia can provide a level of services for this group that it couldn’t manage during the height of Soviet power, any demographic bounce would not occur until the 2050s — once the children of this cohort have sufficiently aged to raise their own children. Until 2050, Russia simply has to learn to work with less. A lot less. And this is the best-case scenario for Russia in the next generation.



Simply put, Russia does not have the population to sustain the country at its present boundaries. As time grinds on, Russia’s capacity for doing so will decrease drastically. Moscow understands all this extremely well, and this is a leading rationale behind current Russian foreign policy:

Russia’s demographics will never again be as “positive” as they are now, and the Americans are unlikely to be any more distracted than they are now. So Russia is moving quickly and, more important, intelligently.

Russia is thus attempting to reach some natural anchor points, e.g., some geographic barriers that would limit the state’s exposure to outside powers. The Russians hope they will be able to husband their strength from these anchor points. Moscow’s long-term strategy consistently has been to trade space for time ahead of the beginning of the Russian twilight; if the Russians can expand to these anchor points, Moscow hopes it can trade less space for more time.

Unfortunately for Moscow, there are not many of these anchor points in Russia’s neighborhood. One is the Baltic Sea, a fact that terrifies the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Another is the Carpathian Mountains. This necessitates the de facto absorption not only of Ukraine, but also of Moldova, something that makes Romania lose sleep at night. And then there are the Tien Shan Mountains of Central Asia — which brings us to the crisis of the moment.

The Crisis in Kyrgyzstan

The former Soviet Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan is not a particularly nice piece of real estate. While it is in one of those mountainous regions that could be used to anchor Russian power, it is on the far side of the Eurasian steppe from the Russian core, more than 3,000 kilometers (1,800 miles) removed from the Russian heartland. The geography of Kyrgyzstan itself also leaves a great deal to be desired.

Kyrgyzstan is an artificial construct created by none other than Stalin, who rearranged internal Soviet borders in the region to maximize the chances of dislocation, dispute and disruption among the indigenous populations in case the Soviet provinces ever gained independence.

Stalin drew his lines well: Central Asia’s only meaningful population center is the Fergana Valley. Kyrgyzstan obtained the region’s foothills and highlands, which provide the region’s water; Uzbekistan gained the fertile floor of the valley; and Tajikistan walked away with the only decent access to the valley as a whole. As such, the three states continuously are jockeying for control over the only decent real estate in the region.

Arguably, Kyrgyzstan has the least to work with of any of the region’s states. Nearly all of its territory is mountainous; what flat patches of land it does have on which to build cities are scattered about. There is, accordingly, no real Kyrgyz core. Consequently, the country suffers from sharp internal differences: Individual clans hold dominion over tiny patches of land separated from each other by rugged tracts of mountains. In nearly all cases, those clans have tighter economic and security relationships with foreigners than they do with each other.


(click here to enlarge image)

A little more than five years ago, Western nongovernmental organizations (and undoubtedly a handful of intelligence services) joined forces with some of these regional factions in Kyrgyzstan to overthrow the country’s pro-Russian ruling elite in what is known as a “color revolution” in the former Soviet Union. Subsequently, Kyrgyzstan — while not exactly pro-Western — dwelled in a political middle ground the Russians found displeasing. In April, Russia proved that it, too, can throw a color revolution and Kyrgyzstan’s government switched yet again. Since then, violence has wracked the southern regions of Jalal-Abad, Batken and Osh — strongholds of the previous government. In recent days, nearly 100,000 Kyrgyz residents have fled to Uzbekistan.

The interim government of Prime Minister Roza Otunbayeva is totally outmatched. It is not so much that her government is in danger of falling — those same mountains that make it nearly impossible for Bishkek to control Osh make it equally difficult for Osh to take over Bishkek – but that the country has de facto split into (at least) two pieces. As such, Otunbayeva — whose government only coalesced due to the Russian intervention — has publicly and directly called upon the Russians to provide troops to help hold the country together. This request cuts to the core weakness in the Russian strategy.

Despite much degradation in the period after the Soviet dissolution, Russia’s intelligence services remain without peer. In fact, now that they have the direct patronage of the Russian prime minister, they have proportionally more resources and influence than ever. They have proved that they can rewire Ukraine’s political world to expunge American influence, manipulate events in the Caucasus to whittle away at Turkey’s authority, cause riots in the Baltics to unbalance NATO members, and reverse Kyrgyzstan’s color revolution.

But they do not have backup. Were this the 19th century, there would already be scads of Russian settlers en route to the Fergana to dilute the control of the locals (although they would certainly be arriving after
the Russian army), to construct a local economy dependent upon imported labor and linked to the Russian core, and to establish a new ruling elite. (It is worth noting that the resistance of Central Asians to Russian encroachment meant that the Russians never seriously attempted to make the region into a majority-Russian one. Even so, the Russians still introduced their own demographic to help shape the region more to Moscow’s liking.) Instead, Russia’s relatively few young families are busy holding the demographic line in Russia proper. For the first time in Russian history, there is no surplus Russian population that can be relocated to the provinces.

And without that population, the Russian view of the Fergana — to say nothing of Kyrgyzstan — changes dramatically. The region is remote and densely populated, and reaching it requires transiting three countries. And one of these states would have something to say about that. That state is Uzbekistan.

The Uzbek Goliath

After the Russians and Ukrainians, the Uzbeks are the most populous ethnicity in the former Soviet Union. They are a Turkic people who do not enjoy particularly good relations with anyone. Uzbekistan’s ruling Karimov family is roundly hated both at home and abroad; the Central Asian country boasts one of the most repressive governing systems in modern times.

Uzbekistan also happens to be quite powerful by Central Asian standards. There are more Uzbeks in Central Asia than there are Kyrgyz, Turkmen, Tajiks and Russians combined. The Uzbek intelligence services are modeled after their Russian counterparts, interspersing agents throughout the Uzbek population to ensure loyalty and to root out dissidents. It is the only country of the five former Soviet states in the region that actually has a military that can engage in military action.

It is the only one of the five that has most of its cities in logical proximity and linked with decent infrastructure (even if it is split into the Tashkent region and the Fergana region by Stalinesque cartographic creativity). It is the only one of the five that is both politically stable (if politically brittle) and that has the ability to project power. And it is also the only Central Asian state that is self-sufficient in both food and energy. To top it all off, some 2.5 million ethnic Uzbeks reside in the other four former Soviet Central Asian states, providing Tashkent a wealth of tools for manipulating developments throughout the region.

And manipulate it does. In addition to the odd border spat, Uzbekistan intervened decisively in Tajikistan’s civil war in the 1990s. Tashkent is not shy about noting that it thinks most Tajik, and especially Kyrgyz, territory should belong to Uzbekistan, particularly the territory of southern Kyrgyzstan, where the current violence is strongest.

Uzbekistan views many of the Russian strategies to expunge Western interests from Central Asia as preparation for moves against Uzbekistan, with the Russian-sponsored coup in Kyrgyzstan an excellent case in point.

From March through May, Uzbekistan began activating its reserves and reinforcing its Fergana border regions, which heightened the state of fear in Bishkek from shrill to panic mode. Given Uzbek means, motive and opportunity, Moscow is fairly confident that sending Russian peacekeepers to southern Kyrgyzstan would provoke a direct military confrontation with an angry and nervous Uzbekistan.

In STRATFOR’s view, Russia would win this war, but this victory would come neither easily nor cheaply. The Fergana is a long way from Russia, and the vast bulk of Russia’s military is static, not expeditionary like its U.S. counterpart. Uzbek supply lines would be measured in hundreds of meters, Russian lines in thousands of kilometers. Moreover, Uzbekistan could interrupt nearly all Central Asian natural gas that currently flows to Russia without even launching a single attack. (The Turkmen natural gas that Russia’s Gazprom normally depends upon travels to Russia via Uzbek territory.)

Yet this may be a conflict Russia feels it cannot avoid. The Russians have not forward-garrisoned a military force sufficient to protect Kyrgyzstan, nor can they resettle a population that could transform Kyrgyzstan.

Therefore, the Russian relationship with Kyrgyzstan is based neither on military strategy nor on economic rationality. Instead, it is based on the need to preserve a certain level of credibility and fear — credibility that the Russians will protect Kyrgyzstan should push come to shove, and Kyrgyz fear of what Russia will do to it should they not sign on to the Russian sphere of influence.

It is a strategy strongly reminiscent of the U.S. Cold War containment doctrine, under which the United States promised to aid any ally, anytime, anywhere if in exchange they would help contain the Soviets.

This allowed the Soviet Union to choose the time and place of conflicts, and triggered U.S. involvement in places like Vietnam. Had the United States refused battle, the American alliance structure could have crumbled. Russia now faces a similar dilemma, and just as the United States had no economic desire to be in Vietnam, the Russians really do not much care what happens to Kyrgyzstan — except as it impacts Russian interests elsewhere.

But even victory over Uzbekistan would not solve the problem. Smashing the only coherent government in the region would create a security vacuum. Again, the Americans provide a useful corollary: The U.S. “victory” over Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and the Taliban’s Afghanistan proved that “winning” is the easy part. Occupying the region over the long haul to make sure that the victory is not worse than the status quo antebellum is a decade-to-generational effort that requires a significant expenditure of blood and treasure. Russia desperately needs to devote such resources elsewhere — particularly once the United States is no longer so preoccupied in the Middle East.

Russia is attempting to finesse a middle ground by talking the Uzbeks down and offering the compromise of non-Russian troops from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Russian-led military organization, as an alternative to Russian forces. This may resolve the immediate crisis, but neither the Uzbeks nor the challenges they pose are going anywhere. And unlike Russia, Uzbekistan boasts very high demographic growth.

The bottom line is this: Despite all of Russia’s recent gains, Moscow’s strategy requires tools that the Russians no longer have. It requires Moscow delving into the subregional politics of places that could well bleed Russia dry — and this is before any power that wishes Russia ill begins exploring what it and the Uzbeks might achieve together.

"This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR"

[Ryan Ruck]

Perilous times are ahead for America.

He even posts here!

[vector7]

Bob Brown believes unrest may be linked to Russia

Posted: Tuesday, April 13, 2010 2:00 am

The Daily Inter Lake | 0 comments

It has been almost 15 years since Bob Brown visited Kyrgyzstan, but he sees a possible common thread between the political climate in the 1990s and the country’s current unrest: Russia.

When Brown, former Montana Senate President and Secretary of State, traveled to Kyrgyzstan, his trip stemmed from the U.S. government’s desire to form a relationship with the recently independent country.


In the mid-’90s Kyrgyzstan hadn’t long been freed from Soviet control, and the U.S. government wanted to prevent Russia from regaining its dominance in Central Asia.

“Our government thought it was a bad idea for those breakaway provinces to get back into” Russian control, said Brown, now a senior fellow at the University of Montana Maureen & Mike Mansfield Center.

The National Guard already had a State Partnership Program in place to pair U.S. states with foreign countries to form sister-state relationships. Brown suspects Montana was chosen as Kyrgyzstan’s sister state because of similarities between the two.

“We’re both isolated. We’re both mountainous. We have a lot in common geographically,” he said.

The U.S. government wanted to send representatives from Montana to Kyrgyzstan to cement the new relationship but didn’t want the country to get the wrong idea, Brown said. Rather than just sending military personnel, the government wanted to send a civilian.

“Our Pentagon didn’t want people in Kyrgyzstan to think the military ruled the roost in any of our states,” he said. “They thought if we just sent a two-star general ... it would give the wrong impression.”

Then-Gov. Marc Racicot wasn’t able to go, nor was then-Lt. Gov. Judy Martz, Brown said. At the time Brown was president of the state Senate and next in line in the state’s leadership.

“I said, ‘Heck yes. I’d like to go,’” he said.

While he remembers formal ceremonies, mutton and toasts, Brown also recalls Kyrgyzstan’s desperate poverty.

Manhole covers in the capital, Bishkek, were stolen and sold as scrap metal, leaving gaping holes in the streets because there was no money to replace them. Brown was reprimanded for handing out dollars from his wallet to young people in the street.

“They gave me a stern lecture. You just don’t do that,” he said. “But what’s a dollar to me?”

Although Kyrgyzstan at that time was considered one of the region’s more stable countries, there was still a sense of unrest, Brown said. A stabilizing force in the area has long been the Manas Air Base near Bishkek, which Brown called “an important military base” for the United States.

The base is used both as the launch point for refueling flights over Afghanistan and as a troop transit point. Troop transit flights had been diverted for several days because of the Kyrgyz revolution, but the U.S. Embassy said Monday those flights have returned to normal operation and that the refueling flights are continuing.

Brown suspects Russia has more than a passing interest in the upheaval because of interest in Manas.

“I think the Russians are pretty enthusiastic about what is going on in Kyrgyzstan, and there is pretty good evidence they’re behind a lot of this stuff,” he said.

He suspects that the Kyrgyz people “are not sophisticated enough” to operate the base and that Russia would jump at the chance to take control of Manas.

“I’m not sure that the unrest in Kyrgyzstan is an entirely local thing,”

Brown said. “I think it probably has been encouraged by the bad guys in the Muslim world [i.e. al-Qaida terrorists] and Russia.”

The Associated Press contributed to this story.