Korean Peninsula On The Brink Of War

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‘Stunning’ revelations on North Korean nukes

Professor says Pyongyang's technology is 'ahead of the Iranians'

By Richard Lui, NBC News
NBC News NBC News
updated 2 hours 37 minutes ago 2010-12-16T15:57:32

Despite years of non-proliferation efforts, the Obama administration has come to the uncomfortable conclusion that North Korea’s nuclear capability is “significantly more advanced” than previously thought.
Senior administration and intelligence have come to that conclusion based in large part on a recent trip to North Korea by Stanford expert Dr. Siegfried Hecker, the former head of Los Alamos National Laboratory.
Hecker’s first trip to North Korea was in 2004 when he says, "I actually wound up in a conference room, in their reprocessing facility, holding the plutonium in my hands in a glass jar.”
He has since returned to North Korea six more times. After his seventh trip last month, Hecker made a shocking new find: "The North Korean technology that I saw is ahead of the Iranians."

Now he’s saying what nobody wants to hear: North Korea has the capability to export its technology, possibly to other nations that might not hesitate to use it against the U.S. – like Iran.

Last year, he saw an empty facility at North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear complex. But this year he saw 2,000 "pristine" and "beautiful" uranium-enriching centrifuges.

"It really was quite stunning to see that because I simply didn't expect them to have this sophistication, and this scale of a facility,” said Hecker. And judging by his timing, they built it in one year – almost impossible to do.

"The past facilities I have been in ... the control equipment is old-style, 1950's American style." But the new control room was similar to "what you would see in a good facility today in the United States."

Hecker, the co-director of the Center of International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University, is speaking openly about what he saw and believes that’s why the North Koreans welcomed his visit.
"The North Koreans expect me to do that, because that's the way that they can actually have an effect." Hecker believes they have enough plutonium for four to eight bombs.

“The message clearly was, ‘Look, we have the plutonium, and if we have the plutonium that means we have the bomb.’ And they wanted me to take that message back to the U.S. government and say, ‘Look, North Korea has the bomb, they want some respect.’"

S.Korea to hold live fire drill on disputed island

Hecker says he saw what few would expect a poor country suffering under severe economic sanctions could afford: a new uranium facility with a bright blue roof. Not hidden, as most would think, instead boldly saying, “We are here.”

Hecker spoke with NBC’s Richard Lui about his recent trip to North Korea and what it means for U.S.- North Korea relations and global nuclear proliferation.

Richard Lui: You estimate North Korea has the capability to build four to eight nuclear weapons. What size would those bombs be like? Like Nagasaki, Hiroshima?

Hecker: The best guess right now is 24 to 42 kilograms. That would make sort of four to eight Nagasaki-like, what I would call a primitive bomb. [Primitive nuclear bombs are bigger in size; advanced bombs are smaller].

A Nagasaki-like bomb means it's a 10,000-pound bomb, so it's huge, you have to put it on a plane to deliver it or in a van or on a boat.

To miniaturize that big bomb takes a significant amount of technology know-how and most importantly nuclear testing... I don't believe they have yet been able to miniaturize, and certainly I do not believe that they could have the confidence in a small miniaturized bomb to put it on a missile.

Lui: You have some concern about the military receiving some fissile materials. What are those concerns?

Hecker: What I'm mostly concerned about is state control. My biggest concern about North Korean’s nuclear weapons is actually not so much the weapons in their hands, but the weapons or materials or technologies getting out of their hands.

My biggest concern is: “Could they be building another reactor?” “Could they be helping the Iranians with a plutonium program?”

Now [my concern] is actually, could they be moving into uranium arena and uranium? The methods of making the uranium are very, very difficult to track.

Lui: You've said North Korea has been working on its nuclear program for decades and it would be impossible to build the centrifuge facility if they just started in April.

Hecker: Iran has taken 23 years to get to where they are. And in my opinion the North Korean technology that I saw is ahead of the Iranians.

My own view is that North Korea has also been pursuing this for decades – most likely three decades or so. But particularly over the past 10-15 years, is when I believe they first of all bought the materials.

Then they shaped the centrifuge components, bought many of the components and equipment. And then, they must have received some training somewhere, and had been working at this for many years in order to be able to get this going. Lui: How does this rate in terms of concern from 1 to 10?

Hecker: When I put together my list of top nuclear concerns, it actually turns out Pakistan comes up on top of the list. But North Korea is up there, it keeps vacillating between #2 and #4.

So North Korea is near the top, and particularly, what's so important about North Korea is that if we could solve the North Korean problem we would give an enormous boost to the global non-proliferation regime. That is what I actually see as the biggest piece of hope, not just to make sure they don't blow up the place, but actually to see whether we can make some progress.

Lui: What is your role when you visit North Korea?

Hecker: I do not come in as an inspector. They invite outside interlocutors into North Korea, particularly when there is no formal dialogue.

So when they want to send a message, or when they want to get some sense as to what is the United States actually thinking. I'm not an official representative of the U.S. government… However, they know I have access to the U.S. government.

To me, that's a very good sign, they want to keep talking, there's at least some hope that one might be able to come up with some resolution.

Lui: What are conversations like when you are talking with government officials here in the United States? What was their reaction?

Hecker: The government officials that I briefed – in the State Department, the Department of Energy, and the National Security Council – I think most of them were surprised the way I described the scale and the sophistication, but they weren't surprised at the fact that uranium enrichment actually existed.

I think we all expected that they have uranium enrichment – I've said it directly to my North Korean hosts for six years. So we knew that.

I would like to advise the American government that at this particular point [North Korea has] made it very clear to us that they're not about to give up the bomb because they believe that that provides the deterrent to the U.S. coming in and taking over, and particularly for a regime change...

I think what's really important to make sure the escalation doesn't get out of hand, is what I call the 3 No's. So what I'd like to advocate is: We should go in and make sure we get an agreement, not only with North Korea, but China. And the other is the 3 No’s: To say no more bombs, no better bombs, and no export.

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North Korea and Iran: How the two states test US diplomacy

North Korea is seen as an unpredictable 'spoiled child.' Iran is seen as a rational but aggressive nation. Each have nuclear programs, but pose unique problems for US security.

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North Korea and Iran present multiple challenges to US foreign policy
Photo illustration by John Kehe

Enlarge Photos (1 of 5)
By Howard LaFranchi, / Staff writer, Scott Peterson, / Staff writer, Donald Kirk, / correspondent / December 12, 2010
Washington; Istanbul, Turkey; Seoul, South Korea Likening North Korea to a "spoiled child" was nothing new.
Skip to next paragraph

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This is the cover story for the Dec. 13 weekly version of the Christian Science Monitor.

But in the April 2009 US diplomatic cable from Seoul to Washington, the comparison of the backward and unpredictable regime in Pyongyang to a child acting up in an attempt to get attention was remarkable because of who had made it: He Yafei, the Chinese vice foreign minister.

A year later, another cable depicting a conversation between the South Korean vice foreign minister and senior Chinese officials would suggest that Beijing was tiring of its role as a lifeline to a withering Pyongyang, and was warming to the idea of a reunited Korea under the South's control.

IN PICTURES: Who has nukes?

The cables – a small piece of the mammoth cache of diplomatic communications released last month by the truth-out organization WikiLeaks – represented from Washington's perspective a bit of promising news in one of the world's most intractable and dangerous confrontations. Or at least they were until North Korea decided in November to rain down artillery fire onto the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, putting North Asia once again at the brink of something that could potentially degenerate into nuclear war.

But what the cables also suggested, in the way they presented China as a glimmer of hope in the North Korea crisis, was the dearth of good options the United States has to choose from as it seeks to address the challenges posed by an aggressive and misbehaving state that happens to possess nuclear weapons. The same intractability characterizes another relationship the US faces in an even more unstable part of the world – the three decades of antagonism with Iran.

In a world of more than 190 nations, many of them problematic, North Korea and Iran remain in a class of their own for the US – charter members of the "rogue states" club, a list that has dwindled over the past decade with the subtraction of Saddam Hussein's Iraq and a defanged Libya.

The particulars of the North Korean and Iranian challenges make them different in significant ways. But in an era when non-state actors like Al Qaeda have emerged as top international security threats, North Korea and Iran remain the two starkest outliers in the global community of states because of several factors they share in common – factors that make them particularly difficult to address.

Both North Korea and Iran remain in long and hardened conflicts with the US, the world's sole superpower. Both are sustained economically in a manner that staves off collapse – North Korea by its patron state, China; Iran by its oil wealth. Both have an identity that makes reconciliation with outside adversaries more difficult. North Korea appears motivated by a desire to safeguard a regime of privileged elites, while Iran sees itself as a global rebel with a cause: the leader of a broad Islamic revolution and defiant promoter of a new global order no longer dominated by traditional powers.

Most significant, the two have nuclear programs that risk destabilizing their regions and threaten an already fragile global nonproliferation regime.

"Both are countries that tend to have foreign policies or exhibit international behavior that is a source of concern and friction with the international community, and both are pursuing nuclear weapons and policies that bring them into conflict with the US and America's allies," says James Dobbins, a former US diplomat who is now director of the International Security and Defense Policy Center at the RAND Corp. in Arlington, Va. "There are a number of countries out there with one or the other of these factors, and they are less of a concern. It's the combination of the two that really makes North Korea and Iran stand out."

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A New Korean War Would Be Devastating, but It Could Happen
Dec 15, 2010 – 5:38 PM
AOL News

By Joseph Schuman


There would be no winner if war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula.

But more than 57 years after the armistice suspended open hostilities between the U.S.-allied Republic of Korea in the south and the Chinese-backed Democratic People's Republic in the north, their border remains trip-wire tense. And both sides are braced for a return to conflict, however unlikely, that would kill millions of people and resonate economically and politically across the globe.

In the South Korean capital of Seoul today, residents participated in a 20-minute air attack drill by donning gas masks and rushing into underground shelters. It was the biggest evacuation exercise in decades and one treated with an unusual seriousness in the wake of last month's artillery clash.

Two South Korean marines and two civilians were killed when North Korea opened fire on the small garrison island of Yeonpyeong last month. The attack, which brought a brief South Korean artillery response, came just after the North unveiled hidden, potentially dangerous advances in its nuclear program, and a few months after a South Korean naval vessel was sunk by what appeared to be a North Korean torpedo.

North Korea's rhetoric has become exaggeratingly bellicose -- a standard practice for Pyongyang -- with the state-run Korean Central News Agency most recently saying joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises in the Yellow Sea brought "the dark clouds of a nuclear war to hang over the Korean peninsula."

And these days, the international community isn't dismissing the threat.

An apparently evolving transfer of power in North Korea, along with the country's perpetual economic frailty and extreme paranoia, has put the U.S. and South Korea on edge and scrambling for ways to calm the situation.

"It's changed out there, and it's dangerous. Increasingly dangerous," Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told troops in Baghdad this week when asked about the Korean standoff.

In addition to what's thought to be a rudimentary nuclear arsenal of perhaps a dozen bombs, the North Koreans have a million-man army, with half deployed near the demilitarized zone abutting South Korea, and hundreds of long-range artillery tubes within range of Seoul. That means a sudden strike could potentially kill the roughly 30,000 American civilians living among the millions of South Koreans, as well as the roughly 25,000 U.S. servicemen and women assigned to protect South Korea.

In turn, U.S. and South Korean firepower can destroy the North Korean leadership and military.

"North and South Korea have never been closer to war since 1953, but close is actually not too close because of the terrible consequences of war for both sides," as the national security veteran analyst Leslie Gelb put it recently.

Still, unpredictability is one of North Korea's most dominant characteristics, and the fields of potentially deadly miscommunication or misinterpretation are many.


OUT-OF-CONTROL SCENARIOS

After the sinking of the Cheonan in March and South Korea's angry accusations against the North, Pyongyang shut down a military-to-military hot line that had been set up in 2004 for the two sides to handle maritime emergencies.

It also periodically turns off the United Nations fax machine link at Panmunjon, along the DMZ, like a small child acting out.

"The potential for miscalculation, misunderstanding, and unintended escalation cannot be dismissed," military scholar and analyst Paul Stares wrote in a war contingency document put out by the Council on Foreign Relations last month, before the artillery clash. "Indeed, a combination of factors could propel a crisis beyond what the principal protagonists might initially expect or desire."

North Korea's own insular and despotic regime -- built around a cult of personality toward leader Kim Jong Il -- could get in the way of understanding any external threat and internal weaknesses.

After Saddam Hussein was deposed, plenty of evidence emerged that he didn't know the limits of Iraq's defenses because frightened subordinates were afraid to tell him.

"Pyongyang's grasp of potentially fast-moving events could be quite limited and slow, given the North's relatively unsophisticated intelligence and communication systems," Stares said. "Furthermore, the limited options for communicating with the North Korean leadership could hinder attempts to bring a rapidly deteriorating situation under control."

Equally destabilizing is the North's current, apparently volatile succession process.

The ailing Kim Jong Il has tapped his third son, the young and inexperienced Kim Jong Un, to be the next leader, as evidenced by the younger Kim's recent promotion to four-star general and what appears to be the establishment of Kim family members and allies in a de facto ruling council that will advise him.

Kim Jong Un may be behind the recent and possibly future acts of aggression as a way of establishing his credibility with the military, just as his father was believed to have done when -- after a playboy-like youth -- he was preparing to succeed his father, North Korean founder Kim Il Sung.

But North Korean politics are extremely hard to decipher from afar, and it's possible that factions within the government or military could oppose Kim Jong Un, creating the potential for even more volatility.

Pyongyang also has a history of using aggression to get the world's attention in order to get food, fuel or other aid through negotiations. And though it has mastered the art of brinkmanship, the North always runs the risk of overplaying its hand.


OPERATIONS PLAN 5027

The North Koreans do know there is no way they could come out ahead in full-out war, but they also know they could inflict a tremendous amount of damage before the U.S. and South Korea could stop them.

In some ways, the thrust of each side's military threat is the unbearable cost to either of a first strike. If North Korea attacks the South with the decades-old motive of forcing reunification, U.S. and South Korean air and sea power can obliterate all key military targets, invade and topple the regime. In the unlikely event of the South and U.S. forces instigating a conflict, the North can destroy Seoul, send missiles toward Japan and attack with a missile or airplane-carried nuclear device.

The U.S. military perpetually updates its contingency plans for war in Korea, a document known as Operations Plan 5027, or simply OPLAN 5027.

It officially envisions the U.S. providing units to reinforce South Korean in the event of an attack, but the commander of joint forces would be an American.

As parsed by the security documentation compiler GlobalSecurity.org, OPLAN 5027 lays out some scary possibilities.

The roughly 500 artillery tubes trained on Seoul, twice the firepower the North had in the 1990s, could devastate the South's capital. They are part of a 12,000-strong force of self-propelled and easily moved artillery and rockets. And though they are old, they could sustain a firing pace of up to 500,000 rounds per hour against the U.S.-South Korean Combined Forces Command defenses for several hours.

The private political intelligence group Stratfor notes that the shells used in the recent attack on Yeonpyeong Island were incendiary and possibly thermobaric -- a class of so-called fuel-air bombs that produces much longer blast waves than traditional explosives with the aim of increasing casualties and property damage.

In analyzing the pattern of fire and results, Stratfor adds that there was a fairly high dud rate -- roughly a quarter of the rounds that failed to explode.


FIRE AND FLOOD

But the North still has the power to destroy a half-century of industrial development in South Korea, a country that's a key trading partner of the U.S. and an integrated cog in the global economy. That's in addition to the devastation it could cause to the South Korean population and its American and other foreign guests.

North Korea also has the manpower to stage a short-term blitzkrieg of the South with little time needed for preparation, though the U.S. and South Korean air superiority would likely stop that advance from going all the way to Seoul.

And the North could unleash chemical and biological weapons, its small nuclear arsenal, and even flash floods with dams upstream from the DMZ.

The U.S. counteroffensive plans are all about stopping the North Koreans in their tracks and quickly decapitating the regime.

As the North Korean forces work their way through the rugged, mountainous terrain to the south, U.S. air power would use the northern tanks and infantry's narrow access routes as killing zones.

Meanwhile, as air- and sea-based missiles took out North Korean command and intelligence targets, a U.S. Marine expeditionary force and South Korean units could stage an amphibious assault positioning them to quickly move toward and seize control of Pyongyang.

But the South Koreans would have to withstand days of destruction while such an invasion was carried out.


NUCLEAR UNKNOWNS

It isn't clear how North Korea could or would deploy its small nuclear arsenal.

Almost certain is that suspected North Korean nuclear facilities would be among the first U.S. targets.

And almost just as certain is that the U.S. wouldn't retaliate itself with nuclear weapons -- in part because of how that would affect China, South Korea and North Korean civilians, and in part because the U.S. has devastating conventional weapons at its disposal for a Korean conflict.

Still, North Korea's atomic weapons remain one of the biggest question marks on the peninsula. Adding to the confusion, senior Obama administration and intelligence officials told The New York Times that Pyongyang's recently unveiled uranium-enrichment program may be "significantly more advanced" than Iran's, involving hidden nuclear facilities around the country that outsiders haven't detected.

That's sure to be on the agenda of Deputy Secretary of State Jim Steinberg, who left Washington on Tuesday to lead a high-level delegation to Beijing.

China, North Korea's principal patron, has publicly declined to chastise Pyongyang after the sinking of the Cheonan and the artillery attack last month. And after participating in multinational talks over the past decade aimed at denuclearizing North Korea, Beijing has recently stayed silent on that issue as well.

As in peace, China would be an extremely influential player on the Korean Peninsula should war break out.

Half a century ago, it fought on North Korea's side. Now, Beijing's affairs seem far too interwoven with the West's to even consider taking sides in such a conflict.

But in war, all bets are off.

[BRVoice]

South Korea Plans Live Firing Drill from Attacked Island
VOA News - Steve Herman | Seoul
16 December 2010

In a move likely to further escalate tension on the Korean peninsula, Seoul's military says it will resume live-firing artillery drills from an island North Korea attacked last month.

South Korea's military Thursday said artillery training will resume from Yeonpyeong island, possibly as soon as Saturday.

Spokesman Colonel Lee Boong-wu calls the exercise routine and legitimate. He says it is meant to bolster the defenses of the country's northwestern islands, which sit below the maritime border, the Northern Limit Line.

Lee says the timing of the shelling will be announced in navigation alerts beforehand. He adds that representatives of the 16-member countries of the U.N. Command and the Military Armistice Commission will observe to see that it abides by the 1953 ceasefire agreement.

North Korea does not recognize the Northern Limit Line and claims much of the Yellow Sea now under Seoul's control.

Four South Koreans died on November 23 when North Korea shelled Yeonpyeong. During an exercise that day the South Korean military had been firing artillery into the Yellow Sea, but not toward North Korea.

The United States, in response, has held military exercises with South Korea and Japan. Pyongyang calls the drills highly provocative, saying they are bringing the peninsula very close to war.

The commander of U.S. forces here, General Walter Sharp, says more exercises will be conducted. He says they will partly focus on how to respond to provocations by North Korea.

"In light of the recent events we will seek ways to further change our exercises to address limited as well as full-scale North Korean attacks," said Sharp.

The shelling of Yeonpyeong came eight months after the sinking of a South Korean navy ship, which killed 46 sailors. An international investigation concluded the vessel was hit by a North Korean torpedo. Pyongyang denies involvement.

In 1953, fighting halted in the three-year Korean War, but since no peace treaty has been signed, the two Koreas remain technically at war.

South Korea's government Thursday expressed skepticism about reports that North Korea may allow United Nations inspectors to return to examine Pyongyang's nuclear facilities. The inspectors were kicked out of the country in 2008.

South Korean media report that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il made the offer to visiting Chinese officials last week.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Kim Young-sun says it appears, however, Pyongyang did not explicitly say it would accept inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Kim says based on Seoul's past dealings with Pyongyang, it is important for the North Koreans to demonstrate the will to end their nuclear weapons programs by taking specific actions.

Despite years of negotiations that began in 2003, North Korea has not made good on promises to end its nuclear weapons programs in return for aid and greater diplomatic recognition.

Also, the governor of the U.S. state of New Mexico, Bill Richardson, began a four-day visit to Pyongyang.

The U.S. State Department says Richardson, who has made several trips to North Korea, is not carrying any official message. But his visit is seen as part of the intensive diplomacy in Asia to defuse tensions on the Korean peninsula.

Before departing Beijing for Pyongyang, Richardson said he hopes to bring about peace by persuading North Korea's leadership to stop some of the aggressive actions it has taken.

[BRVoice]

From Steve Herman on Twitter:

1. State Dept.: "We want to make sure that China is using its influence to try to steer North Korea in a different direction." 16 minutes ago via web
2. State Dept. on #ROK artillery drill planned on Yeonpyeong: #DPRK "would be very unwise to react to what South Korea has announced." 18 minutes ago via web

[BRVoice]

(LEAD) N. Korea should halt nuclear development if six-party talks can resume: Seoul official

(ATTN: UPDATES with senior official's remarks; CHANGES dateline to SEOUL)

SEOUL, Dec. 16 (Yonhap) -- North Korea should first halt nuclear development if international negotiations with the communist nation can resume, a senior Seoul official said Thursday as Pyongyang expressed its willingness to return to the negotiating table.

"We don't want to negotiate while nuclear development is proceeding," the official said on condition of anonymity. "It would be tolerating a situation where (the North) makes ill use of the negotiations."

As the official spoke, North Korea's foreign ministry issued a statement saying it "supports all proposals for dialogue including the six-party talks prompted by the desire to prevent a war and realize denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula," though it said it "will never beg for it."

China has proposed an emergency meeting of the six-party talks to discuss curbing tensions over the North's deadly shelling of South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island and revelations that Pyongyang is running a uranium enrichment facility that can be used to build atomic bombs.

[BRVoice]

Please enter in this address of YouTube, it's very, very important. It's about the USS Carl Vinson:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-accn7ZBlY


And, by the way, this is the article of the clip:



USS Carl Vinson Welcomes Commander Naval Air Forces
Story Number: NNS101215-10
Release Date: 12/15/2010 2:25:00 PM
Navy.mil

By Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Byron C. Linder, USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) Public Affairs

USS CARL VINSON (CVN 70), At Sea (NNS) -- Sailors aboard the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) welcomed aboard commander, Naval Air Forces Dec. 14 during the Vinson Carrier Strike Group's composite training unit exercise (COMPTUEX) off the coast of California.

Vice Adm. Al Myers received a COMPTUEX overview in the ship's combat direction center (CDC) and observed the COMPTUEX evolutions from CDC.

He walked through the hangar bays greeting Vinson Sailors, and toured Aircraft Intermediate Department spaces. He visited Vinson's Reactor Auxiliary Room and the ship's trash processing spaces. He also met pilots from four Carrier Air Wing 17 squadrons and attended a senior enlisted meeting with Vinson's leading chief petty officers and embarked master chiefs.

"I'm thrilled to be here, and it's great to have an opportunity to get around the ship," said Myers. "You demonstrate what makes our Navy great and what makes our Navy important. I am very proud of you."

Myers praised Vinson's professionalism and dedication to duty evident in the ship's recent Inspection and Survey (INSURV) performance, the best in the past four years and the highest ever for a nuclear carrier.

"Usually I like to see one carrier do better than the last one on INSURV. But I don't know if that's possible now because Vinson set the bar so high. It's a fantastic accomplishment by all hands," said Myers. "The challenge is to keep the momentum going, to build and do even better."

Myers also encouraged the strike group Sailors to handle the gravity of their forthcoming mission.

"For the folks who are on their first deployment, they're going to write history. Vinson is going to be in the news," Myers said. "It's important to understand the Navy does two fundamental things - one is we influence foreign countries, build and disrupt coalitions, and we maintain sea lanes of commerce. You're going to influence a few foreign countries. By being present there, you're going to be protecting our lanes of commerce. You can't do that virtually, you have to be there, you have to be forward deployed. You prove every day what a strong team can do."

Vinson and embarked Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 17; guided-missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill (CG 52); guided-missile destroyers USS Gridley (DDG 101) and USS Stockdale (DDG 106); and frigates USS Gary (FFG 51) and USS Rentz (FFG 46); are completing the COMPTUEX certification prior to a Western Pacific deployment,

For more news from USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70), visit www.navy.mil/local/cvn70/.

[BRVoice]

From Steve Herman on Twitter:

US JCS vice chair Gen. Cartwright: Reaction by #DPRK to new #ROK artillery drill could trigger "chain reaction of firing & counter-firing." 7 minutes ago via TweetDeck

[BRVoice]

KCNA Blasts Reckless Remarks of S. Korean Minister of Defence

Pyongyang, December 16 (KCNA) -- Kim Kwan Jin, newly appointed puppet minister of Defence of south Korea, is going reckless like a puppy knowing no fear of a tiger.

In his address made upon his assumption of office he blustered that "the north should be punished till it is brought to its knees." While inspecting a frontline area, he ranted that "one should clearly know who one's enemy is" and "the headquarters and army of the north are the principal enemies".

What he uttered is nothing but a spasm of a war maniac keen to ignite a war by increasing the tension on the Korean Peninsula and a very dangerous act to escalate the confrontation with fellow countrymen.

His reckless remarks are by no means accidental.

He is a wicked traitor to the nation as he has been hell-bent on confrontation with fellow countrymen, serving in the army for years.

Being such a bad guy, he did not hesitate to make such reckless remarks as labeling the headquarters and army of the DPRK "principal enemies," putting his predecessors into the shade.

This fact alone goes to prove that he is the thrice-cursed enemy of the nation.

What is ridiculous is that he is dreaming of bringing the north to its knees, raising a hue and cry over someone's "provocation" following the Yonphyong Island incident.

The military clash on the island was sparked off entirely due to the reckless military provocation on the part of the U.S. and the south Korean puppet forces wire-pulled by it.

Had the south Korean puppet forces cancelled their plan for shelling as demanded by the Korean People's Army and refrained from firing shells into territorial waters of the DPRK, the military clash would not have occurred.

Nevertheless, he, far from drawing a proper lesson from the said incident, is agitating inter-Korean confrontation and kicking up a war atmosphere. He talked rubbish that "the north's reaction is not worth consideration" and "the north has always behaved so" and the like.

At a "meeting of major officers of the army" he ordered them "to exercise the right to self-defence on the basis of the conception of "measures first and report next" and openly cried out for making air raids on the area of the DPRK.

These outbursts only betray his sinister scenario to orchestrate the second and third Yonphyong incidents under the pretext of the non-existent "provocation from the north" and mount a preemptive attack on the DPRK at any cost under the same pretext.

He was reported to have given the right to preemptive shelling to all units of the army including those in the frontline areas. This fact indicates what extent his bellicose nature has reached.

The puppet military authorities' scenario for a preemptive attack on the DPRK amounts to an open military threat to it and an extremely provocative move to push the situation to the brink of a war.

Those who are fond of playing with fire are bound to perish in the flames kindled by them.

He should bear in mind that he will face a sterner judgment by history and the nation than what his predecessors did if he persists in the racket for a war of aggression against the DPRK.

[BRVoice]

NK threatens nuclear war amid looming regional diplomacy
The Korea Times
12-17-2010 14:37

North Korea warned Friday that another war with South Korea would involve nuclear arms and spread beyond the peninsula, upping the ante as a prominent U.S. politician and a top U.S. nuclear envoy each visited Pyongyang and Seoul to defuse tension.

Uriminzokkiri, the communist state's official Web site, also said in a commentary that war on the Korean Peninsula is only a matter of time, stoking already high tensions after the North shelled a western South Korean island on Nov. 23 and killed four people.

"If war breaks out, it will lead to nuclear warfare and not be limited to the Korean Peninsula," it said. The Koreas remain technically at war after the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce,

In a separate editorial carried in the North's ruling party newspaper, Pyongyang reiterated its long-running demand that Washington agree to a peace pact to formally end the war and withdraw its 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea as a deterrent.

The violent rhetoric came as New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson was in North Korea on a private mission aimed at taming the regional tensions heightened by the deadly bombardment and the revelation of a modern uranium enrichment program in the North.

Uranium provides a second track to developing atomic bombs in addition to plutonium. Pyongyang, which has conducted two nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009, claims its uranium enrichment activity is intended for "peaceful" purposes.

U.S. officials have rejected the claim as false. Sung Kim, Washington's envoy for stalled six-party nuclear talks on North Korea, flew to Seoul on Friday from Beijing where he had assisted Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg in persuading China to use its influence over Pyongyang to rein in the regime.

The trip by Richardson came at the invitation of North Korea's chief nuclear envoy, Kim Kye-gwan. On Thursday, the North's foreign ministry said it supports "all proposals for dialogue, but would never beg for it," including the six-nation talks that also involve the U.S., South Korea, Japan, Russia and China.

The November shelling of the island of Yeonpyeong in the Yellow Sea led to the deaths of two marines and two civilians in the first direct armed attack on South Korean soil since the Korean War ended.

Seoul has vowed to make Pyongyang pay a price, while North Korea claims its side was first provoked by South Korean forces conspiring with the U.S. to invade the communist country.

South Korea and the U.S. dismiss any chances of immediate dialogue with North Korea, while China has proposed emergency six-nation talks on ways to quell the tension. U.S. State Department spokesman Philip Crowley said in Washington that the North should first carry out a series of steps to restore peace in the region and denuclearize itself under a 2005 six-nation agreement.

The six-nation talks have not been held since late 2008

[BRVoice]

North Korea says to strike South if drill goes ahead
By Yoo Choonsik and Chris Buckley Yoo Choonsik And Chris Buckley 1 hr 12 mins ago


SEOUL/BEIJING (Reuters) – North Korea said on Friday it would strike again at the South if a live-firing drill planned by Seoul on a disputed island went ahead, with an even stronger response than last month's shelling that killed four people.

The announcement on North Korean official news agency KCNA came as South Korea readied for live-firing drills on Yeonpyeong island near a disputed maritime border with the North for the first time since November's exchange of artillery fire.

The South Korean drills will take place between December 18-21.

"The strike will play out a more serious situation than on November 23 in terms of strength and scope of the strike," KCNA said.

The North had said its November shelling was a response to South Korean "provocations."

North Korea's warning came after Seoul promised a more robust response to any further attacks on its territory. The shelling of the island was the first time since the Korean war that the North had attacked South Korean territory.

The won fell slightly in offshore forward trading against the dollar, with the 1-month non-deliverable dollar/won forwards rising to as high as 1,159 soon after the news broke from around 1,155.

China, the North's main backer, has said that Pyongyang had promised restraint and the threat of a new attack by the North came as China told visiting U.S. Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg that the two big powers should cooperate more in defusing tension on the Korean peninsula.

It also came as U.S. diplomatic troubleshooter Bill Richardson visited Pyongyang in an effort to "reduce the tension on the Korean peninsula.

China's top diplomat, Dai Bingguo, urged closer coordination over the Korean peninsula during talks with Steinberg, the second most senior official in the U.S. State Department, the state-run Xinhua news agency reported on Friday.

Steinberg was in Beijing for three days up to Friday to press China to do more to bring to heel its ally, North Korea, which last month sparked alarm by shelling the island and disclosing advances in uranium enrichment which could give it a new path to make nuclear weapons.

China has avoided publicly condemning its long-time ally over the deadly shelling and nuclear moves, and instead pleaded with other powers to embrace fresh talks with North Korea.

(Writing by David Chance; Editing by Andrew Marshall).

[BRVoice]

(2nd LD) N Korea vows 'deadlier' retaliation if S. Korea conducts planned live-fire drills

(ATTN: ADDS English statement from N. Korea, background, details, response from S. Korea; TRIMS; CHANGES slug; RECASTS lead, headline)

By Sam Kim

SEOUL, Dec. 17 (Yonhap) -- North Korea vowed Friday to strike back with "deadlier" firepower if South Korea carries out its planned live-fire drills off the front-line island that the North devastated in an artillery shelling last month.

The latest threat comes as a senior U.S. politician and a top U.S. nuclear envoy were each visiting Pyongyang and Seoul amid regional tensions that soared to the highest level in years after the North shelled the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong last month.

New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson arrived in Pyongyang earlier this week on a private mission to defuse the tensions, while Sung Kim, U.S. envoy to six-nation nuclear talks on North Korea, met with his South Korean counterpart in Seoul on Friday.

The Nov. 23 shelling, which Pyongyang claims was in self-defense, killed two marines and two civilians in the most violent armed clash between the sides since the 1950-53 Korean War ended in a truce.

In a vow to continue to defend the Yellow Sea border, the South announced this week that it would resume its live-fire drills off Yeonpyeong for one day between Saturday and Tuesday.

Releasing a statement through the official Korean Central News Agency, the North said it will "deal the second and third unpredictable self-defensive blow" if the drills are carried out.

"It will be deadlier than what was made on Nov. 23 in terms of the powerfulness and sphere of the strike," the unnamed head of the North Korean general-level military delegation said.

The communist country does not honor the Northern Limit Line that has served as a de facto maritime border between the Koreas because it was drawn by a U.S. general at the end of the Korean War.

North Korea fired about 170 shells in the attack on the island, prompting the South to fire back but with no clear success in retaliation. South Korea has vowed to make the North pay.

"The puppet military warmongers should take a prompt measure to stop the planned provocative maritime shelling from (Yeonpyeong) Island," he said, calling it "ugly" that personnel from the U.S.-led U.N. command in Seoul are participating in the drills.

The South Korean Defense Ministry, which confirmed it received the warning earlier Friday, dismissed it as "unreasonable."

"Our military decided not to reply after concluding that we do not need to respond to every threat and unreasonable argument by the North," the ministry said in a statement.

The North, which said it considers the sea off Yeonpyeong part of its "inviolate territorial waters," had sent warnings through its hotline with the South before it shelled Yeonpyeong last month.

Three deadly naval skirmishes have taken place near the Yellow Sea border since 1999, the latest in November of last year. South Korea also continues to impose diplomatic and economic penalties on North Korea for the deadly sinking of its warship in March of this year.

Adding to tension, North Korea's official Web site, Uriminzokkiri, warned Friday that another war with South Korea would involve nuclear arms and would spread beyond the peninsula.

"If war breaks out, it will lead to nuclear warfare and will not be limited to the Korean Peninsula," it said in a commentary.

In a separate editorial carried in the North's ruling party newspaper, Pyongyang reiterated its long-running demand that Washington agree to a peace pact to formally end the war and withdraw its 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea as a deterrent.

"What should not be overlooked is that even the U.S. imperialist aggressor forces present in South Korea are openly shielding the puppet military warmongers' shelling exercises on (Yeonpyeong) Island," the North Korean military said through the KCNA.

The U.S., which stations 28,500 troops in South Korea as a deterrent against North Korea, has said it will deploy about 20 support personnel to join the scheduled drills on Yeonpyeong.

samkim@yna.co.kr
(END)

[BRVoice]

Steve Herman from Twitter:

1. KCNA terms the US, UN military observers heading to Yeonpyeong for the live-fire drill as "riff-raffs." #Koreas 28 minutes ago via TweetDeck
2. KCNA (#DPRK): "The S. Korean group of traitors and the puppet military warmongers had better cogitate about the KPA's warning." 29 minutes ago via TweetDeck
3. KPA says it sent warning notice to ROK "puppet forces" at 1220 today that "reckless military provocations" at a grave phase. #Koreas 30 minutes ago via TweetDeck
4. #ROK Defense Ministry: Live-fire drill on Yeonpyeong will go ahead despite #DPRK threats. #Koreas 32 minutes ago via TweetDeck
5. KCNA (#DPRK): If #ROK fires artillery from Yeonpyeong "our military will undertake self-defensive strikes as we've declared previously." about 2 hours ago via TweetDeck
6. RT @YonhapNews: (URGENT) N. Korea threatens to retaliate if S. Korea goes ahead with planned live-fire drills (more to follow) about 2 hours ago via TweetDeck

[BRVoice]

egalite_twitted from twitter:

1. If NKorean military doesn't do as it threatened, it risks losing face. I see little room for NKorea to avoid that in its latest warning. about 1 hour ago via twtkr
2. Reporters on NKorea are taking it more seriously than recently. Problem is, no ambiguous strings are attached to this latest warning. about 1 hour ago via twtkr
3. SKorea says it "does not feel need to respond to every NKorean threat." Well, at least you should let public know of imminent danger. about 2 hours ago via twtkr
4. #NKorea says it is "ugly" that US-led UN personnel are participitaing in live-fire drills planned on Yeonpyeong. about 2 hours ago via twtkr
5. NKorea says it sent warning of retaliation to SKorea at 12:20PM today. Why has SKorea delayed disclosing such serious warning to public? about 2 hours ago via twtkr
6. #NKorea military vows to deal "unpredictable blows" of greater firepower if SKorea goes ahead with live-fire drills on Yeonpyeong. about 2 hours ago via twtkr

[BRVoice]

Subject: Announcement of One-Day Military Firing Exercise in Northwest Islands Off the Coast of Korea Between Dec. 18-21, 2010


The U.S. Embassy in Seoul is transmitting the following information through the Embassy's Warden System as a public service to all U.S. citizens in the Republic of Korea. Please disseminate this message broadly to U.S. citizens.

This warden message is being issued in response to the announcement on December 16, 2010, by the Government of the Republic of Korea that it will “hold a one-day live-fire drill on Yeonpyeong Island between Dec. 18 and 21.” The Embassy does not assess that there has been an increase in the threat environment in South Korea.

Given the increased tensions since the North Korean shelling of Yeonpyeong Island on November 23, 2010, it is understandable that U.S. citizens would be concerned regarding the security situation on the Korean Peninsula.
However, the Embassy reminds U.S. citizens in the Republic of Korea that military training exercises are routinely conducted throughout South Korea throughout the year, to include civil defense drills normally held eight times a year.
U.S. citizens should stay informed through local media about upcoming military exercises and civil defense drills that sometimes occur at short notice and for which the Embassy will not routinely provide advance notification.

The Embassy continues to closely monitor the current situation. Should the security situation change, the Embassy will update this warden message.

U.S. citizens living or traveling in South Korea are reminded of the importance of enrolling with the Embassy through the State Department’s Smart Traveler Enrollment System (STEP) website: https://travelregistration.state.gov/ibrs/ui/ . U.S. citizens without internet access may register in person at the U.S. Embassy. Enrollment is a voluntary way of telling us that you, as a U.S. citizen, are in Korea, whether for a long-term stay or for a short visit. In the event of an emergency, we use enrollment information to communicate with you. This could include a family emergency in which relatives in the United States request that the Embassy contact you.

For the latest security information worldwide, U.S. citizens should regularly monitor the State Department’s website at http://travel.state.gov where the current Worldwide Caution, Travel Warnings, and Travel Alerts can be found. Up-to-date information on security can also be obtained by calling 1-888-407-4747 toll free in the Unites States, or, for callers from outside the United States and Canada, a regular toll line at 1-202-501-4444. These numbers are available from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. Eastern time, Monday through Friday (except U.S. federal holidays).

[BRVoice]

FM Spokesman Accuses US of Sidestepping Proposals for Dialogue

Pyongyang, December 16 (KCNA) - A spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry released a statement on Thursday lashing out at the United States for its sinister strategic attempt.

The statement says: The U.S. is keen on stirring up a war atmosphere on the Korean Peninsula and in its vicinity while persistently sidestepping proposals for dialogue with all kinds of preconditions.

Lurking behind this attitude of the U.S. is a sinister strategic scenario to obstruct the economic construction in the DPRK and establish a military domination on it and thus use its military deterrence against its neighboring countries.

The DPRK is at a very important juncture in which it should channel all its efforts into the economic construction as it should attain the goal to open the gate to a thriving nation in 2012.

In expanding foreign investment in the country it requires a stable peaceful atmosphere, not a war atmosphere.

In order to disturb the environment necessary for focusing efforts on the economic construction in the DPRK the U.S. is employing a trick to strain the situation and, at the same time, pass the buck for it to the DPRK.

This is evidenced by the fact that it is trying to make the public believe that the situation remains tense and dialogue is not opened because the DPRK "violates" international agreements and perpetrates "provocative actions".

The history and the reality go to prove that it was none other than the U.S. that has systematically breached all the international agreements calling for peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula.

It was again the U.S. that introduced nuclear weapons into south Korea, scrapping the Armistice Agreement and causing the nuclearization of the peninsula, not content with shipping war equipment there in gross violation of the AA in 1953. It is still not implementing the resolution 3390 of the UN General Assembly held in 1975 which calls for replacing the AA by a peace treaty and disbanding "the UN Forces Command."

The U.S. also violated the 1994 DPRK-U.S. Agreed Framework and reduced to a dead paper the U.S. President's message of assurances in which it promised to provide two light-water reactors to the DPRK till 2003.

It was also none other than the U.S. which increased the military threat to the DPRK in violation of the DPRK-U.S. joint statement adopted in June, 1993 which called on both sides to refrain each other from using armed forces including nuclear weapons and posing a threat with such armed forces and the DPRK-U.S. joint communique adopted in October, 2000 in which both sides vowed not to antagonize each other.

The U.S. also violated the spirit of mutual respect and equality, the provisions for the normalization of relations and ensuring peace and the principle of simultaneous actions on which an agreement was reached in the September 19 joint statement adopted at the six-way talks in 2005.

It is also preposterous for the U.S. to take issue with the DPRK's nuclear activities for peaceful purposes under the pretence of dodging dialogue.

The DPRK's independent building of LWRs and its production of enriched uranium for their fuel are nuclear activities for the peaceful purpose to produce electricity. The right to peaceful use of nuclear energy is the universally recognized right which the countries inside and outside the NPT substantially exercise on the principle of equality and this right of the DPRK is stipulated in the above-said joint statement, too.

All these facts clearly indicate who truly desires dialogue and peace on the peninsula and who wants confrontation and war atmosphere.

The DPRK supports all proposals for dialogue including the six-party talks, prompted by the desire to prevent a war and realize denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula but will never beg for it.

[BRVoice]

DPRK military urges South Korea to immediately stop shelling exercise plan: KCNA
English.news.cn 2010-12-17 16:54:21

PYONGYANG, Dec. 17 (Xinhua) - The Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) military on Friday urged South Korea to immediately stop its plans for a shelling exercise around Yonphyong Island, the official news agency KCNA reported.

The head of the DPRK delegation to the DPRK-South Korea general-level military talks sent a notice to the South Korean side concerning the shelling exercise, reported the KCNA.

The notice warned that if South Korea persisted in its plan to hold the exercise, the DPRK would deliver a second and third "unpredicted self-defense counterattack" that would be bigger and more powerful than the previous one to defend its territorial waters.

The notice urged South Korea to make "deep deliberation" to the DPRK warning.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have been heightened after South Korea and the DPRK exchanged artillery fire near Yonphyong Island on Nov. 23 that killed four South Koreans.

South Korea has declared plans for a live shell artillery drill in the waters southwest of Yonphyong Island on a selected date from Dec. 18-21 depending on weather conditions.

On Friday, the KCNA reported that South Korea's firing destination was the territorial waters of the DPRK and Seoul's plan to resume the firing drill was aimed at "saving its face lost last time."

That the United States supported the plan and intends to dispatch forces to take part in the drill made the provocation of South Korea to an "extremely dangerous degree," according to the report.

Editor: Wang Guanqun

[Toad]

KCNA Blasts Reckless Remarks of S. Korean Minister of Defence

Pyongyang, December 16 (KCNA) -- Kim Kwan Jin, newly appointed puppet minister of Defence of south Korea, is going reckless like a puppy knowing no fear of a tiger.

.......
.

LULZ! I love reading N. Korean news releases. They're so over the top they read like nothing else.

[BRVoice]

N. Korea Says Live-Fire Drill Will Prompt Another Attack
VOA News - 17 December 2010
Steve Herman | Seoul


North Korea has issued a fresh threat to retaliate if South Korea goes ahead with its latest planned artillery exercise in the Yellow Sea.

Pyongyang's official news agency quotes the military as saying "second and third self-defensive blows that cannot be predicted will be dealt" if South Korea holds a live-fire drill on Yeonpyeong island.

South Korea says that between Saturday and Tuesday, depending on weather and other conditions, it will hold an artillery drill on the island.

A professor at South Korea's National Defense University, Choi Jong-Cheol, considers the new threat to be mostly bluster.

The professor says no one slaps the cheek of a person who has already been crying. South Korea, he says, is asserting its right of self-defense and thus it is total nonsense for North Korea to object to a planned exercise in the South's own territory.

Hours after a similar exercise on November 23 on Yeonpyeong, North Korea shelled the island, setting homes on fire and killing two South Korean marines and two civilians.

The North Korean statement says "the intensity and range" of its next strikes will be greater than the November 23rd attack.

North Korea considers South Korean exercises on the western frontier provocative because they include waters close to the Northern Limit Line, the maritime border that Pyongyang has never recognized.

South Korea's leaders have vowed to carry out retaliatory strikes on North Korea should it launch another attack similar to the bombardment of Yeonpyeong island.

Professor Choi expresses little doubt South Korea will make good on that vow.

He says it is all set. The defense ministry, the president and the South Korean public are ready for a fight. If the North Koreans really attack again, he predicts, South Korea will smash them.

Tension between the two Koreas is at its highest level in many years.

The relationship began to deteriorate following the sinking last March of a South Korean naval ship in the Yellow Sea. South Korea, the United States and other countries concluded that a North Korean torpedo hit the Cheonan, causing it to explode, killing 46 people.

North Korea also recently revealed a uranium enrichment program, which could give it a new way to produce nuclear weapons.

The latest threat of retaliation from Pyongyang comes as Bill Richardson, the governor of the U.S. state of New Mexico is in North Korea, meeting with government officials.

Richardson, who is on an unofficial trip, told the CNN news network on Friday he has made some progress in his quest to ease what he says is the highest level of tension he has seen.

The former ambassador to the United Nations has been to North Korea six times before.

Neither Seoul nor Washington has diplomatic relations with Pyongyang. The two Koreas never signed a peace treaty following the three-year war they fought in the early 1950's. An armistice has regulated a tenuous ceasefire since then.