Korean Peninsula On The Brink Of War

[vector7]

Tuesday, November 23, 2010
The Navy View: Korean Peninsula



For those watching events in on the Korean Peninsula, as of yesterday the USS George Washington (CVN 73) was in port, but that ship can get to sea very quickly and may already have sailed.

Also noteworthy, the forward deployed MEU, the Essex ARG, was around Okinawa yesterday. The Peleliu ARG is in the Philippines currently on their way home from deployment.

Should hostilities break out on a larger scale, the US Navy could surge both the USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) and the USS Nimitz (6 very quickly. Both ships have conducted training off the west coast this month. At 25 knots it would take less than 10 days before the ships arrived ready for battle.

Already at sea is USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) and USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75), where both carriers are currently supporting war operations in Afghanistan. These carriers are about 9 days away, or less, depending upon course and speed - starting when they are ordered to move.

While they do not surface often, when the Ohio SSGNs do surface, they tend to do so in the waters near South Korea.

The US Navy maintains a continuous presence in the region, and in different forms is already there.

Posted by Galrahn at 9:00 AM

[vector7]

U.S. Tactical Nukes May Return to South Korea

• By Spencer Ackerman
• November 22, 2010 |
• 9:18 am |
• Categories: Nukes

If North Korea’s going to flaunt its new uranium-enrichment facility to the world, South Korea isn’t going to sit back and take it. Seoul is considering a request for the U.S. to return tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean peninsula for the first time in 15 years. Remember when President Obama was going to put the world on a “path to zero” nukes?

Over the weekend, a U.S. scientist revealed that North Korea took him on a tour of its new “ultra-modern” uranium-enrichment plant at Yongbyon, ending longstanding doubts about Pyongyang’s home-grown capabilities at turning uranium into nuclear fuel. (Though it’s unclear whether the plant is already enriching uranium.) South Korea’s defense minister quickly cooked up a response, the Korea Herald reports:
consider asking the U.S. to bring its nuclear weapons back.

“We will review (the redeployment) when (Korea and the U.S.) meet to consult on the matter at a committee for nuclear deterrence,” Minister Kim Tae-young told parliament, the Herald reports. That’s set to happen next month, when a recently-formalized U.S.-South Korean defense committee meets.

President George H.W. Bush announced in 1991 that the U.S. would withdraw all its battle-ready nukes from the Korean peninsula and Europe to deescalate global nuclear tensions. Bush the Elder boxed the sea-based, 2500-kilometer range Tomahawk cruise missile. And this year, the Pentagon’s giant strategy review recommended putting the Tomahawk out to pasture as part of an overall posture of taking nukes out of warfighting scenarios.

But in a Pentagon meeting with Minister Kim last month, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said North Korean “provocations will not be tolerated.” In the last 18 months, Pyongyang has tested a nuclear weapon, killed 46 South Korean sailors, and is now flaunting a new path to expanding its nuclear arsenal. Can the U.S. really turn down a request for tactical nukes if the Seoul makes it? The Pentagon punted the question to the White House. We’re waiting for a response and will update if and when we receive it.

A Korean defense ministry spokesman told the Associated Press that the effect of bringing the nukes back would be “mainly psychological,” since the U.S. has intimated for decades that it’ll nuke the North if it pushes the South too far. But it wouldn’t just be a psychological gesture to reassure Seoul and warn Pyongyang. It would also be a serious blow to Obama’s dream of denuclearizing the world, something for which, in part, he won the Nobel Peace Prize.

Already Obama may face a huge defeat in the Senate on his treaty with Russia to reduce each country’s nuclear weapons. That treaty doesn’t actually cover the smaller, less-threatening “tactical” nuclear weapons, focusing instead on giant nukes that could destroy whole cities. But the logic of returning nukes to a U.S. ally to prevent a potential conflict runs counter to Obama’s entire effort, since he’d concede that nuclear weapons have a place in conflict.

If the South Koreans make a nuke request and the U.S. denies it, though, the administration would effectively back away from an ally facing an escalating threat from one of the most erratic and militarized nations on earth. Already, Obama’s special envoy for North Korea is in Seoul for talks on the new uranium facility, saying the revelation is “not a crisis.” But if Bosworth can’t forestall the South Korean defense ministry from asking for U.S. nukes, it might quickly become a different type of headache.

[American Patriot]

North Korean attack: What are US options for response?

North Korean attack presents America with a sudden and serious geopolitical challenge. The overriding US goal is to prevent further escalation of the conflict.

• 

Houses are burned on South Korea's Yeonpyeong island near the border against North Korea, on Tuesday, Nov. 23.
Yonhap/AP

---

By Peter Grier, Staff writer / November 23, 2010



Washington

North and South Korea’s exchange of artillery fire in a disputed maritime border area represents one of the most serious clashes between these uneasy neighbors in decades. As such, it presents the United States with a sudden and serious geopolitical challenge.

Related Stories

• After North Korea attacks, South Koreans seem unfazed - mostly
• North and South Korea clash across tense border
• North Korea reveals a nuclear plant. The US says it's not concerned.

The overriding US goal is to prevent further escalation of the conflict.



Serious fighting would immediately place at risk the South Korean capital of Seoul, which is within the range of long-range North Korean guns. Besides its effects on South Korea itself, conflict could endanger the 25,000 American troops deployed in the country per the US-South Korea defense pact, as well as the estimated 50,000 US civilians in the country – many of whom live in Seoul.


But US options are limited, and the Obama administration most likely needs to proceed carefully. Restraint could be interpreted as weakness by the unpredictable North Korean regime. Too much rattling of swords after the North Korean attack, on the other hand, could lead to further crisis.


Unfortunately, such tough choices are routine when it comes to dealing with the Pyongyang regime and its nascent nuclear-weapons program.


Policy on North Korea “is the land of lousy options; you’re choosing between bad, worse, and the worst,” said Victor Cha, senior adviser and Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, at a Monday conference on dealing with North Korea.


The US will certainly move to condemn the act in the strongest terms, say other Korea experts. Indeed, White House press secretary Robert Gibbs on Tuesday called on the North to halt its “belligerent action” and said that the US remains committed to South Korea’s defense.


But neither should the US overreact, says Bonnie Glaser, a senior fellow and Asia expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.


Instead, the administration may need to call on other nations to pressure the North to halt provocative actions. “That would really take us back to China,” Ms. Glaser says.


China’s government is North Korea’s primary financial and political patron. The US has long looked to Beijing as its best hope to exert pressure on Pyongyang to curb North Korea’s nuclear aspirations.



Tuesday’s artillery exchange, combined with recent revelations about what appears to be a previously unknown uranium enrichment facility in North Korea, may have surprised China. That might make Chinese leaders more receptive to US overtures.


“Undoubtedly, China is annoyed [with North Korea],” Glaser says.
But over the past three US administrations, America has tried virtually everything to get North Korea to give up its nuclear program and join the larger world community. Success has been limited, to put it mildly.


Tuesday’s clash centered on the small South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, which is in the Yellow Sea about 75 miles west of Seoul. Yeonpyeong is near the Northern Limit Line between North and South Korea, which was established at the end of the 1950-1953 Korean War. The maritime border curls around islands that lie to the north of where the land border cuts across the Korean Peninsula. Since the early 1970s, the North has challenged the validity of the line, occasionally sending its ships up to or over the border.


According to South Korean officials, the latest skirmish began when the North warned the South to halt military drills in the area. The South refused and began to fire artillery shells into disputed waters, although the guns were aimed away from the North’s territory.


The North then retaliated by firing on Yeonpyeong, which houses a South Korean military post and a small civilian population.


North Korea has a long history of provocative actions, with or without some kind of spark from the other side. A 2007 report from the Congressional Research Service documented dozens of such acts, ranging from infiltration of armed agents into the South to assassination of South Korean cabinet officers and continued low-level naval warfare.



Earlier this year, the South Korean Cheonan warship was sunk near the disputed naval border, with extensive loss of life. It is highly probable that the ship was struck by a torpedo fired from a North Korean submarine, according to US and South Korean analysts.


According to a prescient report issued earlier this month by the Council on Foreign Relations, the chances of military escalation along the North-South Korean border have been heightened recently for a number of reasons.


First, an atmosphere of recrimination and mistrust covers the region in the wake of the Cheonan incident. South Korea is under pressure from conservative elements within its own military to respond more forcefully to provocations from the North. Accordingly, rules of engagement have been loosened since the Cheonan sank.


“Until a prolonged period of calm returns, the risk of another deadly clash between North Korea and South Korea remains real,” writes Paul Stares, a senior fellow for conflict prevention at the Council on Foreign Relations, in the report.


Second, North Korea may feel that provocations could win it some diplomatic breathing room, writes Mr. Stares. Recent economic sanctions have begun to cause some domestic distress for the Pyongyang regime. Firing off some artillery shells might cause the US and the South to back off, and might win greater support from the North’s primary supporter, China, in this view.


Third, North Korea remains embroiled in a leadership succession, and Kim Jong-un, the son of current leader Kim Jong-il and the choice to run the regime after his father passes from the scene, may feel the need to demonstrate his toughness to North Korea’s military.


For these reasons, the current state of diplomatic relations in the region is highly volatile. The North – and the South and its ally the US – could touch off conflict with a simple misstep.


“Although everyone concerned wants to prevent a major outbreak of hostilities – South Korea fears losing its hard-won prosperity and a much weaker North knows that another war would almost certainly result in its demise – the potential for miscalculation, misunderstanding, and unintended escalation cannot be dismissed,” writes Stares.

[American Patriot]

Obama to Call Lee After North Korea Attack on South Kills Two

November 23, 2010, 12:48 PM EST




By Bomi Lim and Hans Nichols
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama will call his South Korean counterpart after North Korea fired artillery shells yesterday at an island near the disputed border between the two countries, in its worst attack on South Korean in at least eight months.


White House spokesman Bill Burton, who called the shelling “a particularly outrageous act,” said Obama plans to speak with South Korean President Lee Myung Bak about the incident, which killed two South Korean soldiers and set houses ablaze.


“North Korea has a habit of doing things that are provocative,” Burton told reporters traveling with Obama on Air Force One. “We’re going to continue doing everything that we need to do to make sure that we’re defending our ally South Korea and that there’s security and stability in the region.”


South Korea returned fire with 80 shells and scrambled fighter jets as Lee vowed to respond “sternly.” Local television channel YTN showed smoke billowing from Yeonpyeong island off South Korea’s northwest coast and said residents took cover in bomb shelters.


U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has spoken with his South Korean counterpart, Burton said.


Stocks sank while the dollar and the Swiss franc rallied. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 1.6 percent at 11:48 a.m. in New York, after the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 1.3 percent. December contracts on South Korea’s Kospi 200 Index sank 1 percent at 7:55 p.m. Seoul time from the close of trading. The dollar appreciated 1.8 percent to $1.3383 at 11:56 a.m. in New York.


Tensions Rising


Tensions with Kim Jong Il’s regime have risen in the past year after the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan in March killed 46 sailors. Obama this week dispatched envoy Stephen Bosworth to Asia after reports by a U.S. scientist that North Korea said it had built a uranium-enrichment plant.


“They want to direct attention to themselves, to say: ‘Look we are here, we are dangerous and we cannot just be ignored,’” said Andrei Lankov, an associate professor at Kookmin University in Seoul.


Obama was awakened at 3:55 a.m. for a security briefing on the attack, Burton said.
“What North Korea needs to do is live up to their international obligations and make real progress in ending their illegal nuclear program,” Burton said.


Call for Restraint


United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, a former South Korean foreign minister, condemned the attack and called it “one of the gravest incidents since the end of the Korean War.” Ban, in a statement released in New York, said he was “deeply concerned” by the incident, which he blamed on North Korea, and urged “immediate restraint.”


China expressed “concern” over the North Korean shelling.


“We hope the parties do more to contribute to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei told reporters in Beijing yesterday. Reports on North Korea’s new uranium-enrichment plant underscore the need for disarmament talks, Hong said.


“What is important is to restart six-party nuclear talks at an early date,” he said, referring to negotiations involving North Korea, South Korea, the U.S., China, Japan, and Russia.


Sixteen South Korean soldiers and three civilians were injured in the shelling, said a Defense Ministry official speaking on condition of anonymity because of military policy. Joint Chiefs of Staff official Lee Hong Kee called the shelling, which began around 2:30 p.m. local time, an “intentional attack.”


‘Sudden Roaring Sound’


Shin Seung Won, 70, who has been running a motel on Yeonpyeong for about 20 years, said by telephone: “I heard a sudden roaring sound. I ran to the window and saw my neighbor’s house was burning and the neighborhood was covered in smoke.”


North Korea initiated the exchange of artillery fire, Bosworth, the U.S. envoy, told reporters in Beijing at a news conference after meeting with Chinese officials. The U.S. and China share the view that “such conflict is very undesirable,” and agreed that all sides should exercise restraint, Bosworth said.


North Korea accused South Korea of opening fire first and warned of more “merciless military attacks” if its territory is violated. The North Korean army’s Supreme Command made the statement in the official Korean Central News Agency.


South Korea on Nov. 22 kicked off a nine-day military exercise, which North Korea said was aimed at attacking the country. The KCNA statement didn’t mention if North Korea suffered any casualties.


‘Tinder Box’


“The North Korean issue is a tinder box for the region,” said Gavin Parry, managing director of Hong Kong-based Parry International Trading Ltd. “They like to saber-rattle for attention, but on the heels of a nuclear inspection that indicated they could have bomb capabilities, markets can’t afford to ignore any instability for the region.”


By attacking Yeonpyeong, 2 miles (3.2 kilometers) from the border, North Korea has escalated its provocations against the South and its U.S. ally, according to Kenneth Quinones, former State Department director of North Korean affairs and a professor at Akita International University in Japan.


“This is one of the most serious North Korean provocations in at least two decades,” he said. The latest attack “was on a civilian-occupied island, unlike the Cheonan, which was a naval warship.”


North Korea may be trying to force a change in U.S. policy that has shunned talks with Kim’s regime until it ends provocations and lives up to commitments on ending its nuclear weapons program, Lankov said. The attack may also signal domestic instability as the ailing Kim seeks to cement the handover of power to his youngest son, Kim Jong Un.


Controlling Generals


“My gut feeling is that Kim Jong Il is having a very hard time controlling his generals,” Quinones said. “The North Korean military is asserting itself at a time when Kim is weak both physically and militarily. Kim Jong Un means nothing; he’s a puppet.”


Kim Jong Un made his public debut in September, when he was named a general and vice commissioner of the Central Military Commission, the nation’s most powerful body. Those were his first public appointments and were followed by a succession of appearances alongside his father.


North Korea is laboring under United Nations sanctions over its two previous nuclear device tests. Attempts to force Kim’s regime back to disarmament talks have foundered after North Korea quit the six-party forum last year.


North Korea has a history of attacks on the South since the two sides fought to a standstill in their 1950-1953 civil war. China backed the North and the United States led an international force fighting on the side of the South, laying out a Cold War relationship that endures to this day.


The U.S. has about 25,000 troops in the South and Obama said during a Nov. 10 Veterans Day speech in Seoul that America’s resolve to stand alongside its ally will never waver.


--With assistance from Bill Varner at the United Nations, Tony Capaccio, Kate Andersen Brower and Julianna Goldman in Washington, Sookyung Seo, Seonjin Cha, Jungming Hong, Eunkyung Seo, Frances Yoo and Brett Miller in Seoul, Mike Forsythe and Yidi Zhao in Beijing, Darren Boey in Hong Kong, John Brinsley in Tokyo and Daniel Ten Kate in Bangkok. Editors: Ben Richardson, Bob Drummond.


To contact the reporters on this story: Bomi Lim in Seoul at blim30@bloomberg.net; Hans Nichols in Washington at Hnichols2@bloomberg.net.


To contact the editor responsible for this story: Bill Austin at billaustin@bloomberg.net

[American Patriot]

Obama Said To Be 'Outraged' By North Korea's Actions

Categories: National News, Security, Foreign News



From a Q&A this morning aboard Air Force One as President Obama was flying to Kokomo, IN. White House spokesman Bill Burton was taking questions from reporters:


— Question: "Does the president consider North Korea’s actions (shelling an island in the South; killing two South Korean marines and injuring others) an act of war?"


Burton: "As you know, the president is outraged by these actions. ... We stand shoulder to shoulder with our ally in South Korea. And as the president said in Korea, we're fully committed to their defense.


"Our condolences go to the victims of this attack. And we'll be working with South Korea and the international community in coming days on the best way forward in securing peace and stability in the region."


— Question: "Any specifics on what we will be doing to stand with South Korea? Are we sending additional troops? Are we moving any ships into the area?"
Burton: "We're going to continue to work with them, but I don't have any news for you on any specifics."


— Question: "Does the president view this as an act of provocation?"
Burton: "It’s an outrageous act. ..."


— Question: "So 'outrageous act,' not a 'provocative act'?"


— Burton: "I don't want to get out the thesaurus on all the things that the president thinks are terrible."


The president is due to speak at an event in Kokomo shortly. If he has any comments on today's news from the Koreas, we'll pass it along.

[American Patriot]

There's a statement of noncommittal for you:

— Burton: "I don't want to get out the thesaurus on all the things that the president thinks are terrible."

[American Patriot]

North Korea: a deadly attack, a counter-strike – now Koreans hold their breath

World appeals for calm after bombardment from North Korea leaves two marines dead and tensions high on the peninsula

• Tania Branigan in Beijing and Ewen MacAskill in Washington
• guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 23 November 2010 20.23 GMT
• 
  

  

  South Koreans watch the North Korean bombardment of Yeonpyeong island, which left two soldiers dead. The White House described the attack as an ‘outrageous act’. Photograph: Yonhap/Reuters
  
  
  The US and other countries around the world pleaded for restraint today after North Korea fired dozens of artillery shells at a South Korean island, killing two soldiers and injuring civilians.
  
  
  With tensions running high on the peninsula, the South Korean president, Lee Myung-bak, met his top military in an underground bunker in Seoul and ordered the air force to strike North Korean missile bases if there is any further provocation.
  
  
  The clash is one of the most serious since the end of the Korean war in 1953. Relations were already strained by the revelation at the weekend that North Korea has a new uranium enrichment facility.
  
  
  In an immediate response to the artillery barrage, Seoul scrambled F-16 fighter jets to the western sea and returned fire.
  
  
  Diplomats and analysts in Washington and elsewhere around the world warned that while neither the North nor South wanted all-out war, the risk of incidents such as today's was that it could tip the peninsula into an accidental war.
  
  
  There appeared to be little appetite in either Seoul or Washington for military retaliation or a new round of sanctions.
  
  
  The North, in a short statement carried by the official KCNA news agency, said the South had fired first despite repeated warnings. It threatened more strikes if the South crossed the maritime border by "even 0.001 millimetre".
  
  
  The South said its troops had not been firing towards the North during their live-fire exercise, which was part of regular drills in the area.
  
  
  South Korean officials said two marines were killed in the attack and 17 injured, while three civilians were wounded. A Seoul-based broadcaster showed images of smoke rising from buildings on Yeonpyeong, which lies just 75 miles west of Seoul. It is home to about 1,600 civilians and 1,000 soldiers.
  
  
  Lee Chun-ok, a 54-year-old island resident, told the Associated Press she was watching TV when she heard artillery and a wall and door in her home collapsed.
  
  
  "I thought I would die," said Lee, who was evacuated to the port city of Incheon. "I'm still terrified."
  
  
  The president's spokeswoman Kim Hee-jung said after his meeting with military leaders: "President Lee instructed [the military] to strike North Korea's missile base near its coastline artillery positions if necessary ... if there is an indication of further provocation".
  
  
  The US president, Barack Obama, who was woken just before 4am by his national security adviser, Tom Donilon, to be informed of the attack, issued a statement condemning it and planned to speak to the South Korean president late today.
  
  
  Bill Burton, a White House spokesman travelling with Obama aboard Air Force One today, said: "North Korea has a pattern of doing things that are provocative. This is a particularly outrageous act." But he offered no specifics on any action.
  
  
  Obama took office in January last year offering to talk directly with the North in an effort to persuade them to abandon a nuclear weapons programme, but the North has responded with missile launches, a nuclear test and the alleged torpedoing this year of a South Korean naval ship, the Cheonan, killing 46.
  
  
  Some analysts saw the artillery attack as part of the North's campaign to have international sanctions withdrawn and to secure a promise of more aid in return for denuclearisation. Others saw it as a localised incident, with the North responding to military exercises by the South that had become too close.
  
  
  The United Nations secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, condemned the barrage, saying: "The attack was one of the gravest incidents since the end of the Korean war." But he called for restraint.
  
  
  The UN security council briefly discussed the incident but made no statement. China, North Korea's closest ally, has a veto on the security council and could block any condemnation .
  
  
  In London the British foreign secretary, William Hague, urged Pyongyang to stop further "unprovoked" attacks.
  
  
  Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said there was a "colossal danger" of escalation, Reuters reported.
  
  
  China steered clear of assigning blame. A foreign ministry spokesman urged both sides to "do more to contribute to peace and stability in the region".
  
  
  Stephen Bosworth, the US special envoy on North Korea, who was in Beijing , told reporters he had discussed the clash with the Chinese foreign minister and they agreed both sides should show restraint.
  
  
  The Pentagon played down the prospect of a military response or more sanctions. "It's hard to pile more sanctions upon the North than are already there," said Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary.
  
  
  Han Seung-joo, a former South Korean foreign minister, said the attack was the most serious clash since the end of the Korean war in that it targeted land.
  
  
  Han said: "It is not only because it involves civilian casualties, but the deliberateness of the bombardment."
  
  
  But he added: "I don't think it will escalate into anything much more serious."
  
  
  Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow at the Asian Studies Centre, part of the Heritage Foundation, a Washington thinktank, said: "The situation on the peninsula is tense but unlikely to lead to war."
  
  
  Professor Chu Shulong, an expert on international security at Beijing's Tsinghua University, said: "North Korea has always been a place that likes to make trouble to get attention from the international community ... They can start a new round of negotiations and get supplies from other countries. This is what they have been doing during the past 20 years."
  
  
  Paul Stares of the Council of Foreign Relations predicted the US would put pressure on China to rein in the North, while China would urge the US to lessen military and diplomatic pressure.
  
  
  Peter Beck, a research fellow with the Council, told Associated Press: "It brings us one step closer to the brink of war.
  
  
  "I don't think the North would seek war by intention, but war by accident, something spiralling out of control, has always been my fear."
  

[American Patriot]

North Korea’s ‘Belligerent’ Bombing of South Rebuked

By Jonathan Tirone - Nov 23, 2010 8:38 AM MT



North Korea’s attack on a civilian- populated South Korean island near their disputed border drew rebukes from the U.S. and European governments along with warnings that the exchange of artillery fire threatened regional peace.



South Korea scrambled fighter jets and returned artillery fire after North Korea provoked the peninsula’s most serious confrontation in decades by lobbing dozens of shells onto Yeonpyeong island, located near the border of both countries on the peninsula’s west coast. The shelling killed two South Korean soldiers and wounded at least 14.



“The United States strongly condemns this attack and calls on North Korea to halt its belligerent action,” the White House said today in a statement. The U.S., which stations about 25,000 troops in South Korea, is in contact with Seoul’s government, the statement said.



United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned the attack, calling it “one of the gravest incidents since the end of the Korean War.” A former South Korean foreign minister, a statement released at the UN said Ban was “deeply concerned” by the incident and urged “immediate restraint.”



Tensions with North Korea have risen in the past year after the sinking of a South Korean warship, the Cheonan, in March that killed 46 sailors. President Barack Obama dispatched his envoy, Stephen Bosworth, to Asia this week after reports by a U.S. scientist that North Korea had revealed a new uranium- enrichment plant.
‘Very Undesirable’



North Korea initiated the exchange of artillery fire with South Korea, Bosworth told reporters in Beijing at a news conference after meeting with Chinese officials. The U.S. and China share the view that “such conflict is very undesirable,” and agreed that all sides should exercise restraint, Bosworth said.



Bosworth said his talks with China on North Korea’s revelations concerning uranium enrichment “very useful,” and included a “full exchange of views.” The U.S. and China have agreed to continue coordination and consultation on the uranium- enrichment issue, he said.



North Korea is seeking to extract concessions from countries that oppose its nuclear program, said Jan Techau, an analyst at the NATO Defense College in Rome.



“The North Koreans are always trying to blackmail the rest of the world,” Techau said in a phone interview. “A few years ago they were firing missiles and now they’re firing shells.”



China expressed “concern” over the North Korean shelling.
Contribute to Peace



“We hope the parties do more to contribute to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei told reporters in Beijing. Reports on North Korea’s new uranium-enrichment plant underscore the need for disarmament talks, Hong said.



China’s role will be crucial in damping the conflict, said Shada Islam, an Asia expert at the Brussels-based European Policy Centre.



“This will require diplomacy by China which is the only country that has any clout in North Korea,” Islam said in a telephone interview.



U.K. Foreign Minister William Hague said he “strongly condemns” the North Korean attack. German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said the “military provocation endangers peace in the region.”



Russian Border



Russia’s Foreign Ministry expressed “deep concern” over the artillery exchange. “Russia decisively condemns any use of force between states and proceeds from the position that all existing disputes should be resolved exclusively by political and diplomatic means,” the ministry said on its website.



Russia, which shares a border with North Korea, called for restraint from both sides, according to the statement.



Taiwan urged North and South Korea to exercise restraint so as to maintain peace and stability in the Korean peninsula, Johnny Chiang, the island’s Cabinet spokesman, said at a briefing broadcast on local television.



“The nastiness will probably continue for at least a few days,” Kenneth Quinones, former U.S. State Department director of North Korean affairs and a professor at Akita International University in Japan, said in an interview. “I would expect some UN Security Council action very, very soon.”



To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net

[vector7]

Twitter
Big White House meeting at 4pm on North Korea -- includes Secretary of State Clinton, Def Sec Gates, Adm Mullen, more than dozen others...

[American Patriot]

North Korean Attack Hard to Ignore

It's going to be rather hard to ignore North Korea now.


Forces of the communist regime opened artillery fire on the island of Yeonpyeong, a disputed flyspeck in rich fishing waters off the countries' west coasts. It's closer to the North, but part of a string of small islands off the coast of Inchon, a key Southern port city (and site of Douglas MacArthur's daring 1950 invasion).


The North and South have skirmished over this island and the ones around it before.



There were flare-ups in 1999, 2002 and November 2009. But the engagements were between the two navies and had limited casualties. These confrontations were not unlike the interaction between American and Soviet forces in hot spots during the Cold War -- a little breast beating and turf establishment.


Now, we have an artillery barrage aimed at civilian villages. Casualty reports are so far unreliable, but the most credible local outlets say that some 60 homes are ablaze. Dozens of soldiers from the South may be injured and at least two might be dead.
The South responded with its own artillery and, possibly, a fighter jet strike against the Northern battery.


The incident apparently began with South Korean military exercises off the islands.
It comes at a bad moment.


Still hanging over the relationship between North and South is the sinking of the Cheonan in March. The torpedoed warship took 46 sailors down with it. There has yet to be any resolution of the incident. The U.S. is still calling for an apology and the North has been promising a "physical" response to joint U.S.-South Korean exercises held this summer as a show of strength and solidarity.


Worse, is the report from a U.S. nuclear scientist this week that North Korea is making highly enriched uranium that could be exported to those even rogue-ier than the Johnnie Walker-swilling, Madeline Albright-twirling Kim Jong Il.


We might have little to fear from the balky rockets of North Korea, even those armed with the hand-me down nukes the country got from China. But if the NorKs are selling HEU on the nuclear black market, we have a big, big problem.


This all comes as an ailing Kim is looking to hand the reins over to his 27-year-old son, Kim Jong Un.


Like a misbehaving child on an airplane, North Korea has become a problem that grown- up nations ignore because there isn't any alternative. Just lots of stares and exasperated sighs directed at the toddler's mother, China.


Aside from not wanting to offend China, there are two problems with taking direct action with the NorKs. First, they might actually be able to get a nuke launched at Seoul or Tokyo. Second, regime change means dealing with the humanitarian crisis of what has essentially become a 23-million-prisoner gulag about the size of Mississippi.
Regime change would bring huge costs and huge responsibilities for our ally (trading partner and creditor) South Korea - costs in which we would surely share.


The White House was quick to denounce the "belligerent" behavior of the North in the current case. China, calling for a return to the abandoned six-party talks with North Korea, said: "We hope the relevant parties do more to contribute to peace and stability on the Korean peninsula." Quite.


North Korea is claiming that South Korea acted first and was firing in self-defense (natch), with the South calling the cannonading "unprovoked."


Previous bad actions from the North Koreans followed a typical cycle - tantrums begat denunciations, which begat new talks, which begat free stuff - aid, whiskey, an autographed Michael Jordan basketball -- being shipped to Pyongyang. Misbehavior might have kept Kim out of polite company at the U.N., but it has been pretty lucrative.


But with Kim at the end of his reign, nuclear mischief afoot and increasing military confrontations with the South, one gets the sense that it is going to be hard to ignore North Korea much longer.


Thanks to today's Power Play crew: Wes Barrett, April Girouard, Lee Ross, Paige Dukeman, Varuna Bhatia and Jason Donner.


Read more: http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/20...#ixzz168pIjaS3

[vector7]

North Korea now has same nuclear defense as Iran

Posted By Josh Rogin Tuesday, November 23, 2010 - 3:25 PM Share

As tensions spiral upwards on the Korean peninsula, North Korea's construction of a light water nuclear reactor in addition to its new, sophisticated uranium enrichment facility, allows the regime to claim that its enrichment program is for domestic civilian power needs -- as the same argument that Iran makes -- according the first Western scientist allowed to visit the facility.

Sig Hecker, a Stanford professor who previously directed the Los Alamos National Laboratory, toured the Yongbyon nuclear facility in North Korea on Nov. 12 and gave an extended briefing on his trip Tuesday at the Korea Economic Institute. He was joined by two other experts who traveled to North Korea this month, former Special Envoys Jack Pritchard and Robert Carlin. Hecker said that he saw 2,000 centrifuges set up in the facility, as well as construction on a 25 megawatt light water nuclear reactor. He could not confirm whether the centrifuges were operational, but emphasized that what he saw represents a huge leap forward for North Korea's nuclear program -- one that carries grave risks and severe implications for regional and international diplomacy.

"My jaw just dropped, I was stunned," Hecker said of the moment he saw the centrifuges. "To see what looked like hundreds and hundreds of centrifuges lined up... it was just stunning. In a clean, modern facility, looking down I said ‘Oh my god, they actually did what they said there were going to do.'"

"We must take this seriously, but not overhype it," Hecker continued, noting that by setting up a reactor to make low enriched uranium, the North Koreans have the ability to produce highly enriched uranium (HEU) for bombs while also claiming the enrichment is for civilian purposes, exactly like Iran.

"The same technology, the same equipment can be used to make HEU. And then what you have is called the Iran problem," he said. "It's a way of admitting the uranium enrichment program with a cover story... it's the same cover story that Iran has."

But are the North Koreans getting help from Iran in constructing their facility, especially since it happens to look like the Iranian nuclear facility at Natanz?

"What we saw, 2,000 centrifuges... that's about twice what Iran has done so far. So I'm not sure I would go to Iran if I were North Korea, it might in the future be the other way around," Hecker said. "But I worry about cooperation with Iran."

He said that while the design of the facility was not new, the North Koreans have a new, younger team of scientists working on the design and construction of the new facility, different from older ones he saw in previous trips there. ButHecker's chief concern is the safety of the facility, the security of thenuclear material, and having weaponized material in the hands of the North Korean military.

"Maybe we should have North Korea as part of WANO (the World Association of Nuclear Operators) to make sure they construct that reactor safely," he said.

Carlin said that it was "ironic" that Pyonyang had constructed a light water reactor, given that the international community had been working for years to build such a plant in North Korea under the auspices of the now-defunct Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization. Under that program, the international community would have had control over the nuclear fuel going in and coming out of the reactors, but the effort was shuttered in 2006.

"We've been here before, we were going to build a light water reactor, and we were going to have complete control of the fuel," said Carlin. "For various reasons that remain unclear, we scrapped that program.... And it doesn't hurt to remind ourselves that we had a bite at this apple once upon a time."

Carlin also said the message from North Korea was clear: They are open to negotiation but are going to keep nuclear weapons for a long time and "we better get used to it" -- unless the United States satisfy all of their security concerns and stop what North Korea calls American "hostile" policies. He also warned that Chinese leverage over North Korea was unlikely to affect a positive outcome.

"The Chinese have never said that the North Koreans can't have a nuclear program to produce electricity. And since the North Koreans say that's the purpose of their program, I suspect that's going to be where the bulk of [the Chinese] position is," said Carlin.

Hecker agreed with Carlin and Stanford's John Lewis, who argued in the Washington Post op-ed section on Monday that "U.S. policymakers need to go back to square one."

"A realistic place to start fresh may be quite simple: accepting the existence of North Korea as it is, a sovereign state with its own interests," Carlin and Lewis wrote.

"For now, the most important thing is don't let the threat grow," added Hecker, arguing for a containment strategy that would set new red lines for North Korea, namely no new bombs, no bigger bombs, and no exporting of nuclear material.

Hecker said the 5 megawatt plutonium reactor that that operated previously at Yongbyon for years is now shut down, as is the reprocessing facility for plutonium. He estimated that there are 24 to 48 kilograms of plutonium in North Korea that were produced from that reactor, enough to make 4 to 8 bombs.

The North Koreans told Hecker that they wanted to complete construction on the light water reactor by 2012, but Hecker said that was unrealistic: Most projects in North Korea are scheduled to be completed in 2012 because that's the 100-year anniversary of former dictator Kim Il Sung's birthday.

So why did the North Koreans decide to reveal their nuclear reactor now? Hecker didn't know for sure, but speculated that the construction would have been detected soon enough, so Pyongyang wanted to break the news on its own terms.

Pritchard speculated that the exchange of artillery fire with South Korea last night was not related to the revelation of the new reactor and the new uranium enrichment efforts.

"I do not think there is any connection at all" between North Korea's revelations regarding its nuclear program and the flare up Monday night, said Pritchard. But he warned that either way, there won't be an appetite to bring up the issue before the U.N. Security Council, as was done after North Korea sank the South Korean ship the Cheonan, killing 46 sailors.

"I don't think we will find it going to the UNSC or additional sanctions for this," he said. "The Cheonan was a dastardly event. And the difficulty the international community had coming out with an unambiguous statement, it suggest to me that's not the route we're going to repeat here now."

Hecker's report on his trip can be found here.

[American Patriot]

Twitter
Big White House meeting at 4pm on North Korea -- includes Secretary of State Clinton, Def Sec Gates, Adm Mullen, more than dozen others...

Man, I'd love to be a fly on that wall right now. lol

President: "Ok, what do we know?"

Clinton: "Not much Mr. President...."

Gates: "Right, Sir, not very much at all...."

Obama: "Ok, so we know very little about this incident other than some people launched a bunch of artillery shells?"

Group: "Right!"

President: "Ok, well... we can't piss them off any more, we don't want to start a war with possible friends. Let's just do nothing at all. Pull the US troops out of Afghanistan or something.... what was it Bill used to do in situations like this, Hillary?"

Clinton: "Usually the fat bastard would find an intern and get laid... Mr. President..."

Obama: "Ok... I'll skip the interns for now. I don't like fat white women anyway... oh, sorry no offense Madam Secretary...."

Gates: "So, should I send in troops?"

Obama: "Ummm no, didn't you hear me about Afghanistan?"

And on and on....

[vector7]

Korea: Just Like Before or Something More?

• Comments (1)

By Dave Kansas

What is he up to?

The Korean situation has not quite yet attained crisis level, but it is certainly giving Ireland/Greece/Portugal a good run in terms of grabbing investor global attention. The next few days will show if this is just one more “incident” or the start of something far more dangerous.

While the euro-zone woes are fundamentally a bigger challenge for the markets, the twin rise of the dollar and gold indicates Korea is the main driver of action today. On most days, a rallying dollar sends gold lower.

But when scary things happen, such as unprovoked artillery attacks in an already tense region, investors grab for all the safety they kind find.

That means dollar, gold and Treasurys. That’s what’s happening today.

Anyone who tells you they know how the Korean situation will unfold is exhibiting a great economy with the truth. North Korea, or the KFR as the military calls it, is the most mysterious place on earth. For now, the prevailing view is that this is just another North Korean act of attention getting.

RBC Emerging Markets called the exchange of artillery “another border incident” that does not change “our overall positive medium-term view” of the Korean Won. They see the chance of an escalation into “serious military conflict as relatively small.”

Alan Ruskin at Deutsche Bank takes a modestly more measured view: “At least in recent decades it has paid to fade Korean peninsula tensions, not least because the murk of North Korean politics leads to tactical acts of aggression that fade as quickly as they appear.”

Taking Korean peninsula flare-ups in stride has been a smart strategy in the past. Will it be this time? Our reporter on the ground, Evan Ramstad indicates that this is more serious than usual.

Meantime, watch the fear trade – dollar up, gold up, Treasury's up.

That will be a better predictor than murky forecasts from various chin-scratchers.

[American Patriot]

What is he up to?

The psychology of a possible mad-man.

We all have been looking at this guy like he's a kook. But really... is he?

If the man were a kook, in all honesty, wouldn't the military have deposed him some time ago? Probably....

If the man were crazy would he really be living high on the hog while his people die around him - for his own benefit? Perhaps.....

If he were truly a kook do we really think he could have not only maintained and developed a nuclear program, but continued to have cooperated with Iran and some other countries to gain his technologies - as well as sell technologies to the highest bidders? Without a doubt, he couldn't have continued.

I personally no longer think this man is crazy, unless it is "Crazy like a fox".

I'll explain.

Here is a country littered with the bodies of the starving, a military that is well fed and yet the families of those same military people die on the sides of roads according to intelligence we CAN get out of the country.

This man is "In Charge" and he's not in charge because he's a kook. He's a highly intelligent man and quite capable from the sound of him of having pretty much anyone put to death any time he so desires, whether there is a legitimate reason or not.

No... he's ill though. Sick. No one knows precisely what it is that is wrong with him - but it's probably cancer, or some nasty STD he's gotten from some poor woman who got it from some military guy....

That aside, he's dying it sounds like and he's shoved his son, one of the younger ones into a position as "General".

Well, this young man has NO, and I mean, literally NO military experience from everything we know about him, which isn't much.

So... what better way to get some than to let him command and make a few mistakes. We all do that with our children. Let them stumble and fall, get back up until they walk.

In this case, Daddy Kim is helping Baby General Kim by giving him a little kick in the pants, pointing and giving a few directions and then standing back to see what Sonny can do.

After all, Daddy is still technically in charge and can call off Sonny boy at any time, right?

Until Daddy gets too sick that is.

In the mean time Baby General is learning the ropes, getting experience in dealing with Generals, while still getting his own fun in the evening.

Honestly I think this is a big move to put Junior into a position that will be best suited for him to take over the country when Daddy dies - perhaps sooner than we're expecting.

Perhaps this is Daddy's way of getting Junior trained, on the job training, so to speak, as quickly as possible?

Yeah. I don't think Kim Jong Il is a nut case. He's crazy like a fox.

[American Patriot]

Update: Is North Korea Moving Another 'Red Line'?



November 23, 2010

North Korea and South Korea exchanged artillery fire near the Northern Limit Line (NLL), their disputed western border in the Yellow Sea/West Sea on Nov. 23. The incident damaged as many as 100 homes and thus far has killed two South Korean soldiers with several others, including some civilians, wounded.

The South Korean government convened an emergency Cabinet meeting soon after the incident and called for the prevention of escalation. It later warned of “stern retaliation” if North Korea launches additional attacks. Pyongyang responded by threatening to launch additional strikes, and accused South Korea and the United States of planning to invade North Korea, in reference to the joint Hoguk military exercises currently under way in different locations across South Korea.
Read more »

(From Stratfor news letter I got a few minutes ago)

[catfish]

Everybody's waiting for our response. There ain't gonna be one.

[Ryan Ruck]

This looks to be a good resource for anyone wondering about NorK firepower: Bluffer's Guide: Fortress North Korea.

[American Patriot]

Everybody's waiting for our response. There ain't gonna be one.

We made one.

"Possibility of military action" is ON THE TABLE according to Obama.

The USS George Washington is en route - and all that entails.

[American Patriot]

North Korea's well-rehearsed performance

Analysis: As the smoke clears, the US and South Korea scramble to respond.





For Our Members











By Justin McCurry - GlobalPost
Published: November 24, 2010 10:10 ET in Asia





A South Korean navy ship sails into port in Incheon, South Korea, Nov. 24, 2010. (Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images)



OSAKA, Japan — A day after North Korea unleashed a deadly artillery barrage against South Korea, the region is again playing the parlor game of crafting a response to the regime’s idiosyncratic brand of brinksmanship.


Predictably, Tuesday’s attacks on the island of Yeonpyeong, in which two South Korean marines and at least two civilians were killed, have drawn words of condemnation from Seoul, Tokyo and Washington. China, the North’s ally and main benefactor, has so far confined itself to calling for “restraint” on both sides.


South Korean troops have been put on their highest state of non-wartime alert, and global markets have been badly shaken. The United States has promised unwavering support to Seoul, and today the USS George Washington left Tokyo to take part in a joint military exercise — albeit one that was planned before the outbreak of hostilities — with the South in waters not far from the scene of the attack.


While the clash was one of the most serious since the two Koreas settled on an uneasy truce at the end of their 1950-1953 war, there is little reason to believe that the artillery exchanges across the Yellow Sea border were the opening salvoes in a potentially catastrophic war.


Consider the timing. North Korean shells rained on dozens of homes just as Washington’s top envoy on North Korea, Stephen Bosworth, was midway through visits to Seoul, Tokyo and Beijing designed to revive six-party talks on Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program.






And the attack came as the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama was digesting startling revelations about a hitherto secret uranium enrichment complex in the North, as witnessed by a leading U.S. scientist during a recent visit.


The regime has sought to justify its attack as a measured response to provocation from its neighbor, which it accused of firing into its territory during a recent military drill.


Diplomatic precedent suggests, however, that North Korea had a more considered aim in mind when it took the gamble of launching a direct attack on its neighbor.


It will come as no consolation to the victims and their families, or to the residents forced to flee their homes, but many analysts interpret the attack as a well-rehearsed performance, put on by the North Koreans for the benefit of both international and domestic audiences.


The Korean Central News Agency, a mouthpiece for the regime, couched the attack as an act of self-defense, accusing the South Korean president, Lee Myung-bak, of “treacherous” and “intolerable” moves to destroy the prospects of reunification of the peninsula. Lee, the agency said, had “driven the situation to the brink of war, against the will of all Koreans.”


Despite Lee’s threats to order a retaliatory strike, his response is likely to reverberate in conference rooms of the United Nations, not across the demilitarized zone that divides the Korean peninsula.


The North, meanwhile, knows from experience that it can achieve its short-term aims provided it follows an act of belligerence with conciliatory noises.


So far, this week’s events adhere to that blueprint. That it decided to target South Korean civilians suggests the regime had calculated that, once it had weathered a storm of protest in the immediate aftermath, it would secure concessions from South Korea and the United States.


At the same time, more than a year after it drew international sanctions following its second nuclear weapons test, and just months after it was accused of torpedoing a South Korean navy vessel, the regime has not budged an inch on its central demands: more food and other aid, and end to sanctions, and direct talks with the United States.


By allowing Siegfried Hecker, a professor at Stanford University, to tour its “astonishingly modern” uranium enrichment plant, North Korea was sending a message: that anti-proliferation measures haven’t worked, and that, as the possessor of enough fissile material for up to 12 plutonium-based bombs, it demands respect as a legitimate nuclear power.


This week’s attack won’t force an immediate end to sanctions or a welcome into the community of nuclear states, but it should at least force a rethink in policy, particularly in Washington.


Jeff Kingston, director of Asian studies at Temple University in Tokyo, says it will be hard to stomach, but the Obama administration must now consider how to reopen the lines of communication forged during the latter years of the administration of George W. Bush.


“The timing is linked to Bosworth’s visit and is designed to send the Obama administration a clear message,” Kingston said. “That they are interested in talking, and that this was not a simple act of defiance.


“The six-party talks look dead in the water and the North Koreans aren’t going to give up their weapons program. The question is what concessions they will make in return for talks with the U.S. The Obama administration has to rethink its approach.”


When North Korea misbehaves, the world looks to China for admonishment.


This time, as in the past, it will probably be disappointed. So far Beijing has offered an expression of concern, but is unlikely to stray from its policy of encouraging stability in the North, thereby avoiding a descent into war and the possible loss of its buffer state against the South and its U.S. ally.


A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, Hong Lei, said: "China takes this incident very seriously, and expresses pain and regret at the loss of life and property, and we feel anxious about developments.






"China strongly urges both North and South Korea exercise calm and restraint, and as quickly as possible engage in dialogue and contacts. China opposes any actions harmful to the peace and stability" of the Korean peninsula.


In North Korea, the nuclear revelations and the attack on the South will inevitably be linked, however tenuously, to the elevation of Kim Jong Il’s youngest son to the position of heir apparent.


Since promoting Kim Jong Un, who is still only 27 or 28, to the rank of general earlier this year, Kim Jong Il has strived to secure backing of his reportedly disgruntled army generals for the succession plans.


As Bradley Martin wrote in GlobalPost earlier this week, if the uranium enrichment plant was evidence of Kim Jong Un's spurious part in the North’s technological development, then the attacks on Yeonpyeong will enable his father to burnish his military credentials.


The chances of war, or even of a large military build-up by the United States and its allies in the region are remote. But the political tension, let alone the financial waves created by even minor skirmishes, serve as a reminder of the North’s potential to damage the region’s peace of mind.


A day after the shelling ceased, the area has reverted to an uneasy truce. Decades after the last war between the two Koreas ended without an armistice, it is at least a state of affairs that they and the rest of the region have reluctantly accepted as the norm.


As he ponders the failure of his dual deterrence and sanctions policy to rein in North Korean excesses, Obama might want to consider the words of one of his predecessors.


“Pyongyang has sent a consistent message that during direct talks with the United States, it is ready to conclude an agreement to end its nuclear programs, put them all under [International Atomic Energy Agency] inspection and conclude a permanent peace treaty to replace the ‘temporary’ cease-fire of 1953,” Jimmy Carter wrote in today’s Washington Post.


“We should consider responding to this offer. The unfortunate alternative is for North Koreans to take whatever actions they consider necessary to defend themselves from what they claim to fear most: a military attack supported by the United States, along with efforts to change the political regime.”


It is an uncomfortable choice, but as the smoke clears from the skies above Yeonpyeong, one that the president cannot put off for much longer.

[American Patriot]

November 24, 2010, 10:11 am North Korean Radio Explains Clash

By ROBERT MACKEY

On Wednesday, North Korea’s international shortwave radio service, Voice of Korea, broadcasting in English to the outside world, put its spin on Tuesday’s exchange of fire between the two Koreas across their contested sea border.


As Steve Herman, a correspondent for Voice of America in Seoul, points out on Twitter, a subtitled recording of the North Korean broadcast was posted online by Martyn Williams, a technology journalist based in Tokyo.


As Mr. Williams explains in a post about the recording on his blog, North Korea Tech, “the radio report comes 24 hours after a similar report was carried in English on the Korea Central News Agency wire. The lateness of the report highlights the Voice of Korea’s rigid daily programming, which changes only once per day. The report is very similar to the KCNA bulletin, although there are differences. It’s either been rewritten for radio delivery or been translated from the original Korean by a different person.”


The radio broadcast does indeed make more liberal use of the term “puppets” to describe South Korean military forces than the English-language report posted online by North Korea’s official news agency, KCNA.


That said, both reports are striking for the belligerent tone captured in the warning KCNA renders this way:

Should the South Korean puppet group dare intrude into the territorial waters of [North Korea] even 0.001 mm, the revolutionary armed forces of [North Korea] will unhesitatingly continue taking merciless military counter-actions against it.

That jingoistic declaration seems to reinforce an analysis of the clash mentioned on Tuesday in a previous Lede post on the shelling across the disputed maritime border. In an interview with the BBC, Brian Myers, an American expert on North Korea, suggested:

We need to keep in mind that North Korea is a self-described ‘military-first’ state — in other words, a state which justifies its existence not on the basis of any kind of economic promises or economic claims but on the basis of the claim to be the stronger of the two Koreas, the Korea that is standing up for itself. And when you have that kind of raison d’etre, then you need military victories on a periodic basis — or, at least, provocations of the outside world.