Korean Peninsula On The Brink Of War

[BRVoice]

The Guns of Christmas
Blog Information Dissemination
Sunday, December 19, 2010

The weather is improving over South Korea, and the live fire drills are likely to take place today. A few random thoughts before the day unfolds.

South Korea will conduct the live fire drills, cancellation isn't an option. This is a cultural issue as much as anything, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak cannot back down to North Korean threats or intimidation or he will be forced to resign in disgrace.

North Korea will return fire. The North has made every single warning that is consistent with the warnings made prior to the last outbreak of combat, including phone calls with personal warnings (very rare). Expect return fire to Yeonpyeong island and at least one other location along the DMZ as well. If I was to guess, I would suggest the second attack vector will probably be in Gyeonggi Province. If you recall, that is where intelligence suggested the next attack would come from, and if I was in Vegas I would bet that is where KPA Unit 2670 is located.

North Korean artillery fired a number of duds during the first Yeonpyeong island attack. Folks will be watching to see if the second attack also includes a high number of duds. The North Korean guns are still good, but the artillery shells may not be. If serious shooting starts, it will be interesting to see if the South Koreans decide to take out all the guns while they are ineffective due to bad ammo, as opposed to stopping short of that step and letting North Korea rebuild stocks of new artillery shells.

I suspect the response to an attack will be measured and not an all out offensive. It is very unlikely North Korea would use a nuclear weapon unless the South Koreans actually invaded North Korea, but it is also unclear how the North Koreans will respond to bomb raids against Pyongyang.

Bill Richardson does not appear to have made any progress on either defusing tensions or the nuclear issue. As long as he stays in North Korea though, there is still hope for a diplomatic breakthrough.

Posted by Galrahn at 9:00 AM

[BRVoice]

Sam Kim (egalite_twitted):

1. I expect a very busy day tomorrow. Likely to see a new level of blustery rhetoric if not action. Bill Richardson holds the key for now. 1 minute ago via Twitter for iPhone
2. There are about 430 SKorean workers in #NKorea, the lion's share of them at joint factory park near western border. 31 minutes ago via Twitter for iPhone
3. SKorea gov't tells me no one will enter NKorea tomorrow. No exceptions. Adds it will keep it that way until situation improves. 36 minutes ago via Twitter for iPhone

[BRVoice]

South Korea resists pressure, threat to cancel live-fire drill
The Manilla Times
Monday, 20 December 2010 00:00

YEONPYEONG ISLAND: South Korea on Sunday resisted pressure from Russia and China to cancel a live-fire exercise on a frontier island bombarded by North Korea last month.

The North has threatened “disaster” if the South stages the drill on Yeonpyeong island near the disputed Yellow Sea border, where four people were killed in November.

“We have no plan to cancel our exercise,” a South Korean defense ministry spokesman told Agence France-Presse, adding that the one-day drill may take place on Monday or Tuesday.

The flare-up, coming in the wake of nuclear-armed North Korea revealing a uranium enrichment program, has sparked alarm around the world.

On Sunday, a South Korean military aircraft was flying over Yeonpyeong, with marines on patrol near their seaside barracks.

The foreign ministers of China and Russia held telephone talks on Saturday and called for restraint on the Korean peninsula as the United Nations (UN) Security Council prepared to hold talks on the situation.

“China firmly opposes any action to cause tension and worsen the situation, and demands both sides on the peninsula show calmness and restraint,” Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said.

The Koreas must “carry out dialogue and contact, and completely avoid any action that would fuel the tension,” Yang said.

China, North Korea’s sole major ally, has refrained from condemning Pyongyang over the bombardment despite calls for it to use its influence to intervene in the crisis.

The UN Security Council called a meeting for Sunday, with Russia expressing anger that it was not organized earlier.

“We regret that. We believe that such a step by the president is a departure from the practice existing in the council,” Russia’s UN envoy Vitaly Churkin said.

The United States, however, rejected criticism of the arrange-ments for the meeting.

“This meets other Security Council members’ requests to have time to consult with their capitals and meets the Russian request for a timely meeting,” said US mission spokesman Mark Kornblau.

The UN Security Council has yet to make any statement over North Korea’s artillery attack last month, which left two marines and two civilians dead and damaged dozens of homes.

China has blocked demands for a strongly worded statement against Pyongyang and talks over a text are now in deadlock.

The first shelling of civilian areas since the 1950 to 1953 war sparked outrage in the South, which rushed more troops and guns to its frontline islands.

North Korea on Saturday predicted “disaster” if South Korea goes ahead with the artillery exercise.

A foreign ministry statement accused US troops—about 20 of them are set to take part in the drill—of providing a “human shield” for the event.

The North said the exercise “would make it impossible to prevent the situation on the Korean peninsula from exploding and escape its ensuing disaster.”

It said that its military has already threatened “decisive and merciless punishment” for such an action and “does not make an empty talk.”

AFP

[BRVoice]

Sam Kim (egalite_twitted):

Parents of marines on Yeonpyeong and nearby islands will probably miss sleep tonite. If I had even a brother there, I would. about 1 hour ago via Twitter for iPhone

[BRVoice]

Kate Prengel (she is an UN reporter) from twitter:

1. #NorthKorea is here in full force. Three delegates in the waiting room. #UN 13 minutes ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
2. #UN security council consultations on #Korean tensions have officially begun. Doors shut. Japanese press visibly relaxes. 15 minutes ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
3. Big media scrum at #UNSC for #Korea meeting. Air full of stress. Guards try to refuse entry to a Ugandan diplomat. 21 minutes ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

[BRVoice]

South Korea detains Chinese fisherman
By Leslie Hook in Beijing and Song Jung-a in Seoul
Published: December 19 2010 14:18 | Last updated: December 19 2010 14:18
Financial Times

South Korea has detained eight Chinese fishermen after their boat collided with a patrol ship, in an incident that left at least one dead and will complicate relations with China at a time when the US and others are pushing Beijing to help broker a detente on the Korean peninsula.

Tensions on the peninsula remained high over the weekend as South Korea cited bad weather in postponing artillery drills on Yeonpyeong island, the site of a recent North Korean attack that killed four South Koreans. Those drills are now expected to go ahead this week.

[BRVoice]

U.N. council holds emergency meeting on Korea crisis
Sun Dec 19, 2010 11:32am EST

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The U.N. Security Council began an emergency meeting on Sunday in hopes of preventing the escalating crisis on the Korean peninsula from spiraling out of control.

Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin, who called a news conference on Saturday about the spat between North and South Korea, said he hoped the 15 council members could agree on a unanimous statement that would send a "restraining signal" to both Seoul and Pyongyang.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted a government source as saying that North Korea's military had raised an alert for artillery units based along its west coast ahead of a planned live-fire drill by the South.

Both the North and South have said they will use military means to defend what they say is their territory off the west coast. Recent Western attempts to get the Security Council to rebuke Pyongyang over a deadly artillery shelling incident last month and its nuclear program have been blocked by China.

(Reporting by Louis Charbonneau; Editing by Doina Chiacu)

[BRVoice]

Don't underestimate North Korea
Published: Sunday, December 19, 2010, 10:37 AM
BY COL. KEVIN RICHARDS
PennLive.com

A war on the Korean Peninsula is in no one’s interest; not South Korea, China, Japan nor the United States. Not even North Korea, although with a standing army of more than a million and 18,000 artillery tubes pointed south, it continues to be provocative and belligerent when not receiving enough attention.

That is why the actions taken by the United States, utilizing diplomatic, informational and military instruments of power are proving effective in easing tensions following last month’s unprovoked artillery barrage by Kim Jong Il.

North Korea’s despotic leader, ordered the artillery strike onto the South Korean fishing community of Yeonpyeong Island on Nov. 23, killing four, including two civilians. Some say the shots were ordered by Kim Jong Il to demonstrate to his recently named heir and youngest son how to be a forceful leader. More likely they were fired to bring about a fresh round of Six-Party Talks, which the Obama administration with its new, tougher stance on North Korea has refused to take part in.

Poking a stick into the eye of South Korea from time to time has worked well for Kim in the past. Using these tactics brings him legitimacy at home and relevancy in the region while usually gaining humanitarian concessions or easing of economic sanctions for his efforts.

But the U.S. did not play along this time. Instead it honored its longtime military commitment to South Korea by sending an aircraft carrier into Korean waters, conducting war games with the ROK military and for good measure holding its largest joint military exercise with Japan.

Couple those actions with the more than 28,000 U.S. troops stationed in the Republic of Korea and the message for the North is another aggressive act toward South Korea could bring the wrath of the U.S.

Yet Kim Jong Il should not be underestimated. He is shrewd and calculating, playing the brinksmanship game well. Firing a few artillery rounds to get attention is one thing; starting a war he cannot win with the U.S is another.

You can bet he got the message. America’s actions sent a message to the South: We stand behind our military agreement. We also let China know we are still a player in the region and will continue to maintain our presence there.

And at a time when some nations question our resolve and believe we are too focused on Iraq and Afghanistan, we sent our friends and allies around the globe the message they too can depend on the United States.

Since Kim’s state-owned press provided the North Korean people their only news on the Yeonpyeong incident, we cannot ensure the North Korean people really know what is going on or how recklessly their leader is behaving; however, we can and effectively did ensure the rest of the world saw this action for what it was.

Film footage of the North Korean rounds impacting and the ensuing panic on Yeonpyeong was splashed on major news shows and, of course, on YouTube guaranteeing public outrage in capitals worldwide while U.S. government spokesmen used harsh terms in describing North Korea’s despicable actions. If it’s attention Kim Jong Il wanted, it’s attention he received as the U.S. pulled out all diplomatic stops concerning this issue.

Secretary Clinton met with her ROK and Japanese counterparts in Washington, building a united diplomatic front with our allies. The message to South Korea: Act with restraint and the three nations will stand together against North Korea’s aggression. The message to the North and indirect message to China: The U.S. will not be forced to conduct negotiations on the North’s terms.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen met with his ROK counterparts last week, demonstrating additional U.S. resolve concerning this issue and making it clear that we stand behind our military commitments on the peninsula.

Following up on a phone call from President Obama to Chinese President Hu Jintao, Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg is in Beijing. He will urge China to pressure North Korea into ratcheting back its aggressive posture and to cease work on its nuclear program. China is North Korea’s closest ally and as the United States has no diplomatic ties with North Korea, engagement with China affords the best opportunity to get clear messages to Kim Jong Il.

While the effective use of U.S. instruments of power and restraint by the South Korean leadership have helped prevent a deteriorating security situation on the peninsula, the U.S. must now contemplate Kim Jong Il’s next move and be more pro-active in its future response.

This game is not over and Kim Jong Il is a smart and effective player at brinkmanship. The U.S. and its allies and partners must be ready for his next act.



COL. KEVIN RICHARDS is director of Asian studies at the U.S. Army War College. He has been to Korea on many occasions, including training exercises with the ROK Army. He just finished a four-year tour as the defense attache in Indonesia.

[American Patriot]

I couldn't get to any of the cameras.

Thanks for the updates.

Looks like they've put off the live fire drills for a couple more days.

The UNSC is meeting, impotently as usual.

DPRK is still pissing in everyone's corn flakes.

Russia is screwed up.

China has lost some of their "Fishermen" to the South Koreans.....

This is escalation on a Cold War Scale my friends.

[BRVoice]

For what it's worth


Air Force Global Strike Command SPECIAL ALERT
sunday, December 19, 2010 00:12:46
Before It's News





UN Security Council to meet amid Korean tensions The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations said Saturday that the U.N. Security Council will meet Sunday at 1600 GMT on the soaring tensions on the Korean Peninsula, news reports said. Early Saturday, Russia, a permanent council member, requested an emergency meeting which, according to U.S. sources, might have been held as soon Saturday afternoon, AFP said.
All active personnel serving with the Air Force Global Strike Command have been issued a special alert on Dec 18. Air Force Global Strike Command is responsible for deploying Long Range Strategic Bombers including B-52 and B-2 bombers. There are believed to be 30 B-52 and 11 B-2 bombers stationed at Anderson Air Force base on the Island of Guam. The USAF 36th Wing would be used as the main bomber force in advent of a war on the Korean Peninsula. The Amateur radio operator affiliation known as Sky Watchers has been reporting a substantial increase in Air Traffic at Anderson Air Force base since Dec 15. Strategic bombers deployed from Guam would rendezvous with Fighters from the 5th Air Force stationed in Japan before entering a combat area such as North Korea.





The last confirmed deployment of Stealth Aircraft to Guam was in 2009. www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2010/08/205_40484.html
The mission of Air Force Global Strike Command is to “Develop and provide combat-ready forces for nuclear deterrence and global strike operations –Safe –Secure –Credible to support the President of the United States and combatant commanders.

[American Patriot]

As a retired Air Force guy... I an not going to add anything other than... "Oh... shit".

I'm going to pack some bags.

[BRVoice]

Sorry Peterle Matteo

http://beforeitsnews.com/story/316/8...IAL_ALERT.html

[BRVoice]

From - http://en.rian.ru/world/20101219/161845167.html

Russia's draft UN statement proposes sending envoy to Koreas
20:27 19/12/2010
© REUTERS/ Yonhap

Russia's draft statement to the United Nations Security Council proposes sending a special envoy to Seoul and Pyongyang to resolve the conflict peacefully, a UN source said.

The draft statement also calls on the sides to "show maximum restraint."

The closed-door emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council is being held at Russia's request on Sunday. Participants are discussing a Russian draft statement calling on both North and South Korea to refrain from the escalation of the conflict.

Russia's envoy to the UN Vitaly Churkin reiterated on Sunday that Russia was seriously concerned over further escalation between the two Koreas because the current situation in the region "directly affects the national security interests of the Russian Federation."

"We believe that the Security Council must send a restraining signal to the Republic of Korea [South Korea] and DPRK [North Korea], and help launch diplomatic activity with a view to resolving all issues of dispute between the two Korean sides by political and diplomatic means," Churkin said.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula are high since Seoul unveiled plans to hold exercises on Yeonpyeong Island on December 18-21. Pyongyang blasted the move saying its response would be "deadlier" than the shelling in November that killed four South Koreans on the island.

South Korea has postponed the drills until Monday citing poor weather conditions, but vowed to proceed with the planned exercises despite threats from Pyongyang and calls for restraint from Russia and China.

NEW YORK, December 19 (RIA Novosti)

[BRVoice]

http://twitter.com/kprengel

Kate Prengel - Journalist at UN

1. #SC is neatly split on the #Korean issue. West wants statement blaming #DPRK. Russia+China call for retraint on all sides -- blaming Sokor. 3 minutes ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®
2. 90 minutes into #SC consultations on Korea, the #SouthKorean ambassador has arrived. Red scarf, wave, no words. #UN about 1 hour ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

[American Patriot]

USAF Global HF System Frequencies

The Global HF System (GHFS) was stated by the US Air Force in June of 1992. This system was created by consolidating several other USAF HF networks, including the Strategic Air Command "Giant Talk" system. The goal of the system was to develope a worldwide HF network for providing Command & Control HF communictions to all authorized DOD aircraft and ground stations.

When you hear an aircraft or any stations calling "MAINSAIL" on any of the GHFS frequencies this is a "general" call for any ground station to answer and provided the calling stations with what ever he needs. Any GHFS ground station will respond to the call "MAINSAIL". Depending on the service required, the station bay request the aircraft to change to a discrete frequency for improved and extended service.

EAM's or Emergency Action Message. Another very important aspect of the GHFS is the transmission of EAM's. EAM's are the coded military orders or bulletins that have the highest priority. When EAM's are broadcast, ALL other users of the system are to standby. If you hear a voice giving a long series of letters phonically this is an EAM.

SKYKING messages are special EAM's. These presumably could be the nuclear go/no-go codes. There was a higher than normal number of EAM's and SKYKING messages being transmitted after the attackes of 9/11/01. Urgent SKYKING messages are repeated three or four times instead of the usual two. SKYKING is a group callsign, meaning "Any this net." "Do not answer" is the standard procedure ofr self-authenticating broadcasts, meaning that recipients don't need to give away their positions or existence by challenging the orders. While tuned to any of the GHFS frequncies and hear "SKYKING SKYKING Do not answer" you can bet you're hearing a very important, highest priority, and heavily encrypted message!

Frequency KHz-USB	Description
4709	Sigonella
4724	Andrews, Ascension, Elmendorf, Guam, Hickam, Lejes, Offutt, Salinas, Thule, Yokota
6712	Andrews, Ascension, Guam, Lajes
6724	Sigonella
6739	Ascension, Elmendorf, Guam, Hickam, Salinas, Offutt, Thule, Yokota
8992	Andrews, Ascension, Elmendorf, Guam, Hickam, Offutt, Salinas, Thule, Yokota
9007	Sigonella
9025	Lejes
10780 (1)	AF Eastern Test Range (Backup for Ascension), Cape Canaveral, Antigua, Ascension, Maui
11175 (2)	Andrews, Ascension, Elmendorf, Guam, Hickam, Salinas, Offutt, Thule, Yokota
11181	Lajes
11271	Andrews, Ascension, Elmendorf, Guam, Hickam, Lejes, Offutt, Salinas, Thule, Yokota
13212	Lajes
15016	Andrews, Ascension, Elmendorf, Guam, Hickam, Lajes, Offutt, Salinas, Thule, Yokota
15038	Sigonella
20390	AF Eastern Test Range (Backup for Ascension), Cape Canaveral, Antigua, Ascension, Maui

Footnotes:
(1) - 10780 is usually the primary frequency NASA uses to communicate with the Booster Recovery Ships during a Space Shuttle Launch. Start listening to this a day before up to a few hours before any Shuttle launch and you'll hear Cape Radio on this frequency. This frequency is sometimes used during non Shuttle launches as well.

(2) - 11175 is probably the most active of all the GHFS frequencies. If you want to hear your first military station, set you radio on this freq. and usually within an hour you'll hear something. Even with a portable radio and telescoping antenna you should be able to catch some Military comms on this frequency (your radio must be capiable of receiving USB).


GHFS Ground Station Locations

Gound Station	Location
Andersen	Andersen AFB, Guam near Agana
Andrews	Andrews AFB, near Washington, DC
Ascension	Ascension Island Auxiliary Air Base in the South Atlantic Ocean
Croughton	Croughton Air Base, England, UK
Elmendorf	Elmendorf AFB, Alaska
Hickam	Hickam AFB, Hawaii near Pearl Harbor
Incirlik	Incirlik Air Base Turkey In May 2001 Incirlik was replaced by Sigonella
Lajes	Lajes Air Base, Azores - North Atlantic Ocean
Offutt	Offutt AFB, Omaha, NE
Salinas	Salinas, Puerto Rico, This is only a remote for Andrews.
Thule	Thule Air Base, Greenland
Yokota	Yokota Air Base, Japan
West Coast	McClellan AFB, Sacramento, CA NOTE: This was called McClellan but in January 2001 now is known as "West Coast"

This page & images Copyright (C) 2001 by George W. Fetter. All rights reserved.

[BRVoice]

http://scarletwhore.com/


Western Forces buildup for Korean Attack

18 Dec, 2010 | Author: Canadafirst | 1 Comment »






Four Multi-role Frigates and two air defense destroyers from Canada will meet up with an undisclosed contingent of Royal Navy and Royal Australian Navy vessels for what is assumed to be preparations for action on the Korean Peninsula. The UK, Canada and Australia have some 90 Fast-Attack aircraft that can be deployed with 24 hours to the Korean Theater. The Canadian and Australian Airforces operate the F18s while the UK deploys the Tornado. Allied forces could double the available Naval power in the theater by the end of the year with over 1000 Front-line Allied Aircraft deployed by South Korea, the U.S. and other allies. The sheer volume of Western Forces in the Region signals an inevitable war. Not in the last 55 years has their been such a large Western Military Build-up in the Korean peninsula.

	South Korea	North Korea
CURRENT GFP RANK	12	20
Total Population	48,379,392	23,479,088
Military Manpower Available	26,721,668	12,414,017
Fit for Military Service	21,966,367	10,280,687
Reaching Military Age Yearly	696,516	392,016
Active Military Personnel	687,000	1,170,000
Active Military Reserves	4,500,000	4,700,000
Active Paramilitary	22,000	189,000
Total Air-Based Weapons	538	1,778
Total Land-Based Weapons	8,325	16,400
Total Naval Units	85	708
Towed Artillery Systems	4,000	3,500
Merchant Marine Strength	812	167
Major Ports and Terminals	4	12
Aircraft Carriers	0	0
Destroyers	6	0
Frigates	9	3
Submarines	20	97
Patrol Coastal Craft	75	492
Mine Warfare Craft	15	23
Amphibious Operations Craft	28	140
Defense Budget / Expenditure	$25,500,000,000	$5,500,000,000
Foreign Reserves	$262,200,000,000	$0
Purchasing Power	$1,206,000,000,000	$40,000,000,000
Oil Production	17,050 bbl	141 bbl
Oil Consumption	2,130,000 bbl	10,520 bbl
Proven Oil Reserves	0 bbl	0 bbl
Total Labor Force	24,220,000	20,000,000
Roadway Coverage	102,062 km	25,554 km
Railway Coverage	3,472 km	5,235 km
Waterway Coverage	1,608 km	2,250 km
Coastline Coverage	2,413 km	2,495 km
Major Serviceable Airports	150	77
Square Land Area	98,480 km	120,540 km

Tags: 2011, Australia, build-up, Canada, conflict, Invasion, Japan, Korean, nuclear, UK, War
Category News and Reviews |

[American Patriot]

By the way, ALL of those frequencies in general will be on upper side band... not AM or LSB.

If your shortwave doesn't have the capability to listen to single side band, ditch it and get a new one ASAP.

Even a portable rig with some kind of external antenna.

Do NOT leave the antenna set up if there is a possibility of nukes going off while you're sleeping. The radio will be fried.

[BRVoice]

Rick, I apologized for not posting the links of the articles before.

[BRVoice]

http://twitter.com/kprengel

Kate Prengel - Journalist at UN

#Russian ambassador Churkin says he "hopes" there will be an outcome of today's meeting. Strides back into the chamber. #UN #Korea 4 minutes ago via Twitter for BlackBerry®

[BRVoice]

http://innercitypress.com/usun2ruskor121910.html

Korean Meeting at UN Stalls As Even Russia & China Disagree on Ban Statements

By Matthew Russell Lee

UNITED NATIONS, December 19 -- Three hours into the UN Security Council's emergency meeting about the Korean peninsula, diplomats emerged to describe the split between the positions of US, Japan, South Korea and other Western countries and that of Russia and China.



As Russian Ambassador Vitaly Churkin put it on December 18, when the US Mission to the UN rebuffed his request for a Saturday meeting of the Council, both sides should be told to show restraint -- implying that South Korea should not go forward with its military exercises now scheduled for Monday or Tuesday.


The US maintains that South Korea's exercises are only self defense, and that any Council statement should lay the blame on the DPRK.
Meanwhile, even Russia and China do not fully agree. Inner City Press is told that while Russia wants to refer “relevant statements” of Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, China says it doesn't agree with some of these statements.






Churkin & S-G Ban (and Kim Won-soo), statements not shown

Reporters sighed that such consultations could go on well into the day. The television at the media stakeout was turned to NFL football, Giants versus Eagles. A lunch break was taken, with a US Mission staffer returning with two bags of food. Susan Rice, unlike Churkin, never emerged from the Chamber. Watch this site.


1st update: during the lunch break, several UN officials came out of the Council chamber: Lynn Pascoe, Fink Heysom and Kim Won-soo. Some wondered, where IS Ban K-moon?