Russian Invasion Of Ukraine (Formerly: Democratic Malaise Draws Ukraine Eastwards)

[American Patriot]

Russia Pulls Back Some Troops Amid Moves to Ease Ukraine Crisis

By Ilya Arkhipov, Henry Meyer and Kateryna Choursina March 31, 2014

---

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, right, and US Secretary of State John Kerry walk together ahead of a meeting at the residence of the U.S. ambassador to the U.K. in London on March 14, 2014. Photographer: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images

Russia began pulling back some troops from Ukraine’s eastern border as diplomatic moves continued to ease the crisis over its annexation of Crimea.
President Vladimir Putin told Chancellor Angela Merkel in a phone call he’d ordered a partial withdrawal, the German leader’s office said in a statement in Berlin. A Russian motorized battalion was returning to its base in the Samara region on the Volga river after exercises near the Ukrainian border, the Interfax news service cited the country’s Defense Ministry as saying.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, discussed Ukraine by phone today, the Russian Foreign Ministry said, a day after four hours of talks between the two top diplomats in Paris. The contacts are helping to ease investors’ concerns over the crisis, the worst standoff between Russia and NATO countries since the fall of the Iron Curtain.
Video: Greylock Still Investing in Ukrainian Debt: Humes
“I have the impression that a process of reflection has begun” in Russia, Merkel told students at a Berlin school earlier today. “We would also like to have Russia closer to Europe if it plays by the rules.”
Putin and Merkel also discussed “possible further steps to stabilize the situation in Ukraine and in Transnistria,” the breakaway pro-Russian region of Moldova on Ukraine’s southwest border, according to the chancellor’s office.
‘Constitutional Reforms’

Putin’s office said in a statement the two leaders agreed to continue close cooperation, while saying the Russian president had stressed the need for “constitutional reforms” in Ukraine that would also reflect the interests of Russian-speakers concentrated in the east of the country. Ukraine has rejected the Kremlin’s demands that it grant its regions greater powers.
The Russian ruble strengthened the most since September 2012, adding 1.6 percent to 35.2230 per dollar by 6 p.m. in Moscow and trimming its quarterly decline to 6.8 percent. The Micex Index (INDEXCF) added 1.9 percent to 1,369.29 by the close, the highest since Feb. 28. That cut its three-month drop to 9 percent.
A partial Russian withdrawal would be a “welcome preliminary step” if reports of the troop moves are accurate, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in an e-mail. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told reporters at the Pentagon he can’t confirm whether Russia is pulling its troops back.
Russian Rationale

Shrugging off sanctions from the U.S. and its European allies, Putin has justified Russia’s takeover of Crimea as righting a historical wrong that split the region off from Russia when the Soviet Union collapsed.
Russia gave no details of today’s call between Lavrov and Kerry. At last night’s meeting in Paris, the secretary of state demanded Russia pull its forces back from the frontier, saying they were “creating a climate of fear and intimidation in Ukraine.”
Kerry expressed concern that what the U.S. estimates to be 40,000 troops massing on Ukraine’s border may signal Russia is ready to invade. “Any real progress in Ukraine must include a pullback of the very large Russian force,” he told a news conference.
Lavrov said that while he and Kerry expressed differing views on the reasons behind the crisis, they were in agreement on “the need to seek common ground on the diplomatic path for an exit from this situation that will meet the interests of the Ukrainian people,” according to Russia’s Foreign Ministry.
Crimea Trip

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev today paid the first visit to Crimea by a top official since Putin annexed the Black Sea peninsula. He pledged to create a special economic zone in the region and to raise state salaries to the Russian average by July.
“No resident of Crimea or Sevastopol should lose anything as a result of joining Russia, they should only gain,” Medvedev told a government meeting in the peninsula’s capital, Simferopol. “This is what people are expecting from us, that we provide the conditions for a stable and decent life, certainty in the future and the feeling that they are part of a great nation. We must meet these expectations.”
Russia is in the process of granting citizenship and contracts to 7,800 Crimean military personnel who asked to join Russian forces, Deputy Defense Minister Nikolay Pankov said in an interview in Simferopol.
“We’re not forcing anyone,” Pankov said. “We’re not trying to convince anyone. We’re being genuine and respectful to everyone.”
‘Crude Violation’

Medvedev’s trip without the agreement of Ukraine is “a crude violation of the existing norms in international communication,” Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Yevhen Perebyinis said in televised remarks. The ministry will monitor “such defiant provocation and anti-Ukrainian steps by the Russian Federation,” he said.
Acting Ukrainian President Oleksandr Turchynov dismissed the Kremlin’s demands for more regional autonomy in his country. “Russia’s leaders should deal with the problems of the Russian Federation, not Ukraine’s problems,” he said in a statement on his website.
The U.S. and the European Union have vowed to intensify sanctions on Russia’s military, energy and financial industries if it pushes further into Ukraine. Kerry said the U.S. considers Russia’s actions to be “illegal and illegitimate” and that it’s “on the wrong side of history.”

[American Patriot]

NATO sees no sign of Russian pullback from Ukraine border

By Adrian Croft
BRUSSELS Tue Apr 1, 2014 9:07am EDT












1 of 5. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen chairs a NATO foreign ministers meeting at the Alliance headquarters in Brussels April 1, 2014.
Credit: Reuters/Francois Lenoir

(Reuters) - NATO sees no sign that Russia is withdrawing troops from the Ukraine border and will look at all options to boost the alliance's defenses, its secretary-general said on Tuesday.

Ministers from the 28 alliance members are meeting in Brussels for the first time since Russia's military occupation and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region triggered the worst East-West crisis since the Cold War.

They will discuss ways to boost NATO's military presence in former communist central and eastern Europe to reassure allies rattled by Russia's moves.

"Unfortunately, I cannot confirm that Russia is withdrawing its troops. This is not what we are seeing," Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen told reporters at the start of the talks.

Diplomats said the ministers would consider options ranging from stepped-up military exercises and sending more forces to eastern member states to the permanent basing of alliance forces in those countries - a step Moscow would view as provocative.

Asked if NATO could station forces permanently in the small former Soviet Baltic states, Rasmussen said: "We are now considering all options to enhance our collective defense, including ... further development of our defense plans, enhanced exercises and also appropriate deployments."

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told reporters as he arrived that he would welcome "some more prominent NATO presence in Poland."

PULLBACK DOUBTS
Some NATO members are cautious about taking steps that could aggravate the crisis, particularly after Moscow said on Monday it had pulled some troops back from near the Ukrainian border.

But a NATO military official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Russia still had some 35,000-40,000 troops stationed near the border and that there was no sign of any significant reduction in their numbers.

The Russian forces included mechanized infantry, armored units, special forces, logistics units and "fairly substantial numbers" of planes and helicopters, the official said.

There was also little evidence that the troops were there for training, the official said. There were some exercises but other units were moving to a location and staying put.

"It's an indication of troops given orders to deploy somewhere and awaiting further orders," he said.

The Russian forces did not pose a threat to NATO countries but could pose a threat to Ukraine, the official said.

The United States and its allies have made clear they have no military plans to defend Ukraine, which is not a NATO member.

Since the Crimea crisis erupted, the United States has increased the number of U.S. aircraft in regular NATO air patrols over the Baltic States and has beefed up a previously planned training exercise with the Polish air force.

[vector7]

World War?

by DR. PETER VINCENT PRY
March 30, 2014



Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine to seize the Crimea on February 28, 2014, reporting by the mainstream media has focused on President Obama's threats to impose economic sanctions on Russia in retaliation. Media pundits have spoken of the "standoff" and the "stalemate" between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine--as if economic sanctions against a handful of Russian oligarchs is somehow strategically equivalent retaliation for Russia's annexation of Crimea.

Indeed, mainstream television and newspapers have reported with grim satisfaction that President Obama is "ratcheting up" the sanctions, trying hard to create the impression that Moscow must be quaking with fear. Mainstream media pundits have reported, largely uncritically, Obama's claim that Russian President Vladimir Putin's seizure of Crimea is archaic behavior belonging in another century and "an act of weakness."

Viewers of ABC, CBS, NBC, and MSNBC, and readers of the New York Times, USA Today and etc. might well get the impression that President Obama's sophisticated use of the "soft power" of economic sanctions will inevitably prevail over Dictator Putin's old fashioned military muscle flexing.

On Wednesday, March 26, 2014, the House Armed Services Committee of the U.S. Congress released an unclassified version of its letter to President Obama warning that, over the past month, Russia has been massing more forces on the border of Ukraine--apparently for a wider invasion.

Russia is postured to overrun all of Ukraine.

Russia is postured to attack NATO itself. Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are all NATO member states now, whose security the United States is bound by treaty to protect--including if necessary by nuclear war.

Russia has never enjoyed such a preponderance of nuclear and conventional forces over the United States and the NATO frontline states as it does today. Russia has a virtual monopoly of 3,000-8,000 tactical nuclear weapons, compared to a few hundred obsolete nuclear gravity bombs remaining on the U.S. side. Russia has advanced Third Generation nuclear weapons that have no counterpart on the U.S. side.

For example, these include Super-EMP (electromagnetic pulse) nuclear weapons that could paralyze U.S. and European NATO military forces and command and control systems with a single blow. These include battlefield neutron warheads that are "clean" as they produce no nuclear fallout and could be used with decisive effect against ground and air forces.

Super-EMP warheads alone could enable Russia to roll to the English Channel virtually unopposed.

We are five months away from the centenary of World War One, and the White House is ignorant of the hard learned lessons of the Cold War, World War II, really all of history. Peace Through Strength is the simple ageless formula for achieving security without war.

When the U.S. Navy is reduced from 600 ships to 200, the smallest Navy since 1915; when the U.S. Army is reduced to pre-World War II levels; when the U.S. nuclear deterrent is reduced unilaterally and not modernized for over 30 years--war becomes not only more likely, but inevitable.

Appended below is the letter from the House Armed Services Committee to President Obama of March 26, 2014. Read it and discover that the United States now faces the gravest European crisis since 1938.

God willing, His mercy shall forgive and reverse the folly that has led us to the threshold of another world war.

[American Patriot]

here's the letter:

http://www.familysecuritymatters.org...WARWARNING.pdf

[American Patriot]

Russia Has ‘Very Ready Force’ for Ukraine Incursion - NATO General




FILE - A Russian flag is seen behind a Russian army vehicle.



VOA News
April 02, 2014



Russia has massed all the forces it needs on Ukraine's border if it were to decide to carry out an “incursion” into the country and it could achieve its objective "in three to five days," NATO's top military commander said on Wednesday.

“This is a very large and very capable and very ready force,” said NATO's supreme allied commander in Europe, U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, referring to the presence of an estimated 40,000 Russian troops on Ukraine's border.

Calling the situation “incredibly concerning”, Breedlove said NATO had spotted signs of movement by a very small part of the Russian force overnight but had no indication that it was returning to barracks. FILE - NATO's Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove.


Breedlove made his remarks an interview with Reuters and The Wall Street Journal.

Russia's seizure and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region has caused the deepest crisis in East-West relations since the Cold War, leading the United States and Europe to impose sanctions on Moscow. They have said they will strengthen those sanctions if Russia moves beyond Crimea.

NATO military chiefs are concerned that the Russian troops on Ukraine's border could pose a threat to eastern and southern Ukraine.

Breedlove said Russia could have several potential objectives, including an incursion into southern Ukraine to establish a land corridor to Crimea, pushing beyond Crimea to Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odessa or even threatening to connect to Transdniestria, the mainly Russian-speaking, separatist region of Moldova that lies to the west of Ukraine.

Russia also has forces to the north and northeast of Ukraine that could enter eastern Ukraine if Moscow ordered them to do so, Breedlove said.

Return to Cold War mode

Russia is accusing NATO of slipping back into Cold War thinking by suspending cooperation with Russia over its seizure of Ukraine's Crimea region.

Russia's NATO envoy Alexander Grushko wrote on his Twitter page Wednesday that NATO's basic Cold War instincts have woken up. Alliance foreign ministers are seen during a NATO-Ukraine commission meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels April 1, 2014.


NATO foreign ministers continue their talks in Brussels Wednesday on the crisis in Ukraine.

The ministers decided Tuesday to to officially end all civilian and military cooperation with Russia. They said they do not recognize its annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula and urged Russia to immediately comply with international law.

Diplomatic channels between NATO and Moscow remain open.

Meanwhile, Russia is accusing U.S. banking giant J. P. Morgan of illegally blocking a cash transfer from its embassy in Kazakhstan to a Russian company.

A Russian Foreign Ministry statement calls J.P. Morgan's move "unacceptable, illegal and absurd" and warns the blockage will "have consequences" for the U.S. embassy in Russia.

The ministry linked the blockage to White House sanctions slapped on Moscow for its takeover of Crimea.

The U.S. Congress officially approved the sanctions Tuesday along with final approval of $1 billion in loan guarantees to the Ukrainian government.

[American Patriot]

NATO suspends cooperation with Russia over Crimea crisis

By AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE | April 2, 2014



Ukraine Foreign Minister Andrii Deshchytsia speaks during a press conference as part of a Foreign Affairs meeting at the NATO headquarters in Brussels on April 1, 2014/AFP



BRUSSELS, April 2- NATO said it has suspended all cooperation with Russia over the Crimea crisis and questioned Moscow’s claim to have withdrawn troops from near the Ukrainian border, saying it could not confirm any pullback.



Just hours later the US Congress easily passed an aid package for Ukraine that includes sanctions against Russia for annexing Crimea, in the lawmakers’ first binding response.



The West’s latest moves came as Moscow heaped even more pressure on Ukraine’s teetering economy with a painful gas-price hike, undermining what had been tentative signs of a calming in the worst East West standoff since the Cold War.


Ukraine’s parliament met one of Moscow’s key demands by voting unanimously to disarm all self-defence groups that sprang up around the country during its political crisis, which first erupted in late November over the former government’s decision to ditch a landmark EU association agreement.


Kiev also said on Tuesday that joining NATO was not a priority in a move that was also sure to satisfy Russia.

But tensions remained high more than two weeks after Moscow’s takeover of Crimea, and NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said the alliance was “suspending all practical cooperation with Russia, military and civilian”.


He added however that “diplomatic lines of communication” remained open.


Rasmussen said he could not confirm Russia had pulled troops away from near the Ukrainian border.


“This is not what we have seen,” he said as NATO foreign ministers gathered for two days of talks. US Secretary of State John Kerry flew in to Brussels amid shuttle diplomacy stops in the Middle East.


Ukraine and the United States have accused Russia of massing thousands of troops near the border and have expressed concern that Moscow plans to seize southeastern parts of Ukraine that are home to many ethnic Russians.


- War Games -



Kerry said the Russian announcement that it had withdrawn a battalion from the flashpoint border area was a welcome one, “but small compared to numbers that are deployed”.


German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whom Russian President Vladimir Putin had personally told of the troop pullback, said she had “no reason” to doubt his word.


In Washington, the House of Representatives voted 378 to 34 to approve the aid bill, which the Senate passed last week, including $1 billion in loan guarantees to Ukraine.


The legislation, which now goes to President Barack Obama for his signature, also penalises individuals linked to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and gives Obama flexibility in imposing wider sanctions.


With the conciliatory moves from Moscow, NATO stepped back from a floated idea to reinforce the alliance’s military presence in countries bordering Russia, preferring for now to suspend cooperation and give more time to talks.


“I think everybody realises that the best way forward is a political and diplomatic dialogue,” Rasmussen said, though he added NATO was “very determined to provide effective defence and protection of our allies”.


One counter measure apparently off the table for now is the idea to set up permanent military bases in NATO countries bordering Russia.


The move would be highly controversial for Moscow, reversing an informal agreement made when NATO expanded east to include former Warsaw Pact countries that were eager to break away from years of Soviet domination.


However, the US military may send a warship to the Black Sea and take other steps to reassure anxious allies in Eastern Europe, a US defence official said Tuesday.
Commanders are also looking at expanding a scheduled exercise this summer.


Eastern NATO members such as the Baltic states and Poland want a tougher stance against Russia and would welcome a deeper NATO presence within their borders.
In a joint statement, the NATO foreign ministers confirmed that military and civilian cooperation between NATO and Russia was suspended, but said projects in Afghanistan would remain and diplomatic channels were still open.


Ukraine is not a NATO member but it did form a “distinctive partnership” with the alliance in 1997 and has been staging joint exercises with member states ever since.


- Gazprom pressures Ukraine -



The Ukrainian parliament on Tuesday approved joint military exercises with the alliance between July and October that would involve US troops.


Meeting a key demand posed by Russia, the parliament also voted to disarm all self-defence groups that had sprung up during its political crisis.


The move came after a member of the radical Ukrainian nationalist group Pravy Sektor opened fire in central Kiev late Monday, injuring three people.


Ukrainian politicians are jockeying for position ahead of May 25 presidential elections after the fall of pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovych.


With Moscow able to use gas supplies as a lever, Gazprom chief executive Alexei Miller said Ukraine will now pay $385.5 per 1,000 cubic metres of gas from the previous cut rate of $268.5.


The price hike although widely expected is a new blow to the Ukrainian economy, which needs an international rescue to stave off the risk of default.


To counter Russia’s power over energy throughout Europe, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Poland on Tuesday had begun campaigning in favour of an EU energy union.

[American Patriot]

Russia tells US it is concerned by NATO suspending cooperation

MOSCOW, April 2 Wed Apr 2, 2014 8:22am EDT




(Reuters) - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed concern to U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry on Wednesday about NATO's decision to suspend cooperation with Moscow.


The Russian Foreign Ministry said the two leaders also discussed possibilities for international cooperation in the crisis over Ukraine but gave no details. NATO foreign ministers on Tuesday suspended all practical cooperation with Russia in protest at its annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. (Reporting by Alexei Anishchuk, Editing by Timothy Heritage)

[American Patriot]

Russia slams NATO's suspension

• AFP
• April 03, 2014 12:00AM

Russia has accused NATO of succumbing to Cold War instincts after the alliance suspended all co-operation with Moscow over the Crimea crisis.


"Basic instincts of Cold War have awoken in NATO, affecting rhetoric accordingly," the official Twitter page of Russia's mission to NATO quoted envoy Alexander Grushko as saying on Wednesday.


"'The alliance is under threat!' Seems like taxpayers will have to fork out for military games," he said.


The Western alliance's Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen on Tuesday said that NATO is "suspending all practical co-operation with Russia, military and civilian" over Moscow's speedy annexation of the Crimea peninsula and reported massing of troops near Ukraine's border.


Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin derided the announcement, remarking that it was made on April Fool's Day.


"Last time (in 2008) they were freezing for three months, and thawed by December," he said, referring to Russia's short war with neighbouring Georgia.


"What can I say: it's a Cold War, so they are still freezing," he wrote on Twitter.


Moscow also threatened retaliatory action against US diplomats after US bank JP Morgan blocked a transfer of funds carried out by a Russian envoy.


Russia considered as "unacceptable, illegal and absurd the decision of JP Morgan Chase bank to block the transfer by the Russian ambassador in Astana to insurance company Sogaz," said Alexander Lukashevich, a spokesman for the Russian foreign ministry.


The move was carried out "under the pretext of anti-Russian sanctions introduced by the United States," the spokesman added.


Sogaz is linked to Russian bank Rossiya, which is on the list of companies and individuals subject to US sanctions over Moscow's move to annex Crimea.


"Washington should understand that any hostile action towards Russian diplomats is not only a gross violation of international law but also a prelude to reprisal measures that would not fail to have an impact on the work of the US embassy and consulate in Russia," he said.


"JP Morgan Chase has therefore done a disservice" to the US administration, added the spokesman.


Meanwhile, crisis-hit Ukraine has taken the first step towards granting more powers to the regions in line with Western wishes, but stopped well short of creating the federation sought by Russia.


The announcement came as Russia continued to mass tens thousands of troops along Ukraine's eastern border after a vow by President Vladimir Putin to use "any means necessary" to protect the interest of his compatriots in the neighbouring ex-Soviet state.


Ukraine's new Western-backed government said it would like to eliminate the current practice under which local governors are appointed by the president and move towards an election system.


"The main idea behind the concept is to decentralise power in the country and substantially broaden the authority of local communities," the government said in a statement published on its website.


The interim leaders in Kiev have come under intense pressure from Moscow to adopt radical constitutional reforms after their February overthrow of a pro-Kremlin regime whose rejection of closer ties with Europe sparked months of deadly unrest.


The Kremlin would like to see Ukraine transformed into a federation that allows eastern regions in the vast nation of 46 million to adopt Russian as a second state language and establish their own trade policies with Moscow.

[American Patriot]

16:07 02.04.2014 NATO asks military commanders to draw up by April 15 plans to reinforce presence on Russian borders

Foreign ministers from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ordered the alliance's military brass to quickly craft a plan in response to the Ukraine crisis that could include redeploying forces closer to Russia, the U.S. Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.


The newspaper said that the foreign ministers of the NATO member countries on Tuesday ordered U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, who is serving as the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe and NATO's military chief, to propose measures as "a matter of urgency" to bolster the alliance's defenses to the east.


Breedlove said the ministers had asked him to draw up by April 15 a package of measures that would include the reinforcement and redeployment of NATO assets in its eastern member states.


"We will work on air, land and sea 'reassurances' and we will look to position those 'reassurances' across the breadth of our exposure: north, centre, and south," he said.


"We are going to have to look at how our alliance now is prepared for a different paradigm, a different rule set... we will need to rethink our force posture, our force positioning, our force provisioning, readiness, etc," Breedlove said.

[American Patriot]

NATO boosts Baltic presence as Rasmussen denies Russian pullout claims

01/04 20:19 CET

• Merkel says still too many Russian troops near Ukraine border

NATO on Tuesday vowed to step up its presence in eastern Europe after the Alliance’s secretary general said there is no sign of Russia’s apparent troop pullout from Ukraine’s eastern border.


NATO is holding a two-day military exercise in the Baltics amid fears in the region that Moscow may intervene there next.


Lithuania’s Defence Minister Juozas Olekas said: “We see that our partners in the Alliance are continuing to fulfill their promises, that they are with us even when there is no aggression, but when tension is mounting. That is when the interaction needs to be increased and that is why these drills have been taking place.”


Ministers want to increased military cooperation with Kyiv, although the new government says it is not seeking to become a member of NATO.


NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen said there is no evidence to support Russia’s claims that it has pulled away from Ukraine’s eastern frontier.


“Unfortunately, I cannot confirm that Russia is withdrawing its troops. This is not what we are seeing,” he told reporters in Brussels.


Reuters quoted a NATO official as saying as many as 40,000 Russian troops were stationed near the country’s border.


In a statement released on its website, NATO said it was also suspending all practical, military and civilian cooperation with Russia.


The ministers of 28 Western powers said: “(We are) united in our condemnation of Russia’s illegal military intervention in Ukraine and Russia’s violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. We do not recognise Russia’s illegal and illegitimate attempt to annex Crimea.”

[American Patriot]

Outgunned, outnumbered and in shambles, Ukraine's armed forces look to major overhaul


By Peter Leonard, The Associated Press April 2, 2014 7:15 AM



Tweet




0

• Story
• Photos ( 2 )

Russian officers look as Russian tanks T-72B, close center, arrive and Ukrainian tanks, back, are transported to the Ukraine at the Ostryakovo railway station not far from Simferopol, Crimea, Monday, March 31, 2014. Russian tanks T-72B will be stationed on former Ukrainian military bases. (AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin)


KIEV, Ukraine - Tanks headed north into Ukraine this week from Russian-controlled Crimea. Not at the head of an invading army, but on a trainload of military equipment in such poor shape that Moscow had no use for it.
This humiliation illustrates the yawning chasm in the two former Soviet nations' armed forces — one hollowed out by a lack of finances, the other benefiting from booming oil revenues.
The Russian military is much bigger, at 1 million men, compared to Ukraine's 180,000 troops. The Ukrainian military has an estimated 200 combat aircraft and about 1,100 tanks, while Russia reportedly has about 1,400 combat aircraft and several thousand tanks.
The Russian military is also much better funded. It's projected that Ukraine will spend almost $12,000 this year for each member of its armed forces, according to data provided by security affairs consultancy IHS Aerospace & Defence. Russia will spend seven times as much per person.
While much uncertainty still reigns in Ukraine, which is in dire economic straits and hoping to restore political normalcy with presidential elections set for May 25, its military is racing to figure out how to avoid another debacle at the hands of its giant neighbour.
It's not clear yet exactly how much losing Crimea to Russia has degraded Ukraine's defensive abilities.
"They've lost all the installations and facilities — army, navy, air bases and all the infrastructure that goes with them — in Crimea. They have lost several thousand soldiers and airmen and sailors," said Stephen Blank, a military expert at the American Foreign Policy Council. "The Ukrainian heartland is now vulnerable to an invasion from the south, as well as from the east."
Ukraine's Defence Ministry press office said Tuesday it was not yet able to provide figures on its losses. But according Russian estimates last week, out of the 18,800 Ukrainian military servicemen in Crimea before the peninsula's annexation by Russia, Ukraine was only withdrawing 1,500. The bulk of the remainder switched sides, Russian officials said.
Igor Sutyagin, a research fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, said in spite of the personnel drain, Ukraine scored a notable coup in retaining its crack Interior Minister troops.
"There were at least two highly trained, highly effective special operations units deployed in Crimea, and they are terribly dangerous for anybody," he said.
The Kyiv-based Center of Military and Political Research estimates at least 51 Ukrainian navy vessels were seized by Russia, leaving only 10 ships still flying under a Ukrainian flag.
Mark Galeotti, a security expert at New York University, argued that loss might not be so bad.
"It was never really a force that could be expected to be involved in any serious war-fighting," he said. "So the Ukrainians might not be able to occasionally send a frigate with a multinational force fighting pirates off the coast of Somalia. But that was always a political gesture to show that Ukraine was a big boy now, rather than anything else."
What hardware Ukraine does gets back comes with Russia's disdain.

[Ryan Ruck]

Christianity Already Being Forced Out In Russian-Controlled Crimea

March 17, 2014

Don’t let media pictures of the cross ever present on the bare chest of Vladimir Putin fool you that he’s really a Christian.

Don’t allow Putin’s contention that “America is Godless and has turned away from Christian values,” to confuse.

“In his state of the Nation speech last month, Putin asserted that, “Many Euro-Atlantic countries have moved away from their roots including Christian values…Policies are being pursued that place on the same level a multi-child family and a same-sex partnership, a faith in God and a belief in Satan.” Russia has adopted new laws that ban homosexual propaganda and criminalizes the insulting of religious sensibilities.” (Breitbart, Jan. 29, 2014)

A bare two months later, ‘Christian’ Putin has returned the brutal heel of the Marxism-Leninism ideology which made atheism the official doctrine of the Soviet Union down on the people of Russia’s newly-acquired Crimea.

Throughout the 70-year history of the Soviet Union, Christianity was suppressed and persecuted uninterrupted until Pope John Paul 11, President Ronald Reagan and British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher brought down the Iron Curtain and Soviet Communism.

“The state was committed to the destruction of religion, and destroyed churches, mosques and temples, ridiculed, harassed and executed religious leaders, flooded the schools and media with atheistic teachings, and generally promoted atheism as the truth that society should accept. The total number of Christian victims of Soviet state atheist policies, has been estimated to range between 12-20 millions.” (Wikipedia)

The Soviet Union didn’t change when it became plain Mother Russia. The KGB tiger called Putin has never changed his stripes.

With yesterday’s cheers still resounding from the overwhelming 96.77 percent for Crimea to rejoin Russia and 2.51 percent against still resounding, the biggest victim of the referendum is Christianity—already being forced out.

“Earlier this month, Ukrainian Greek Catholic priests received oral and written threats warning them to leave Crimea.” (Vatican News)

Over the weekend, three priests of the Greek-Catholic church were missing in Crimea.

“On Sunday at around 2 p.m., the priest of the Greek-Catholic church, Mykola Kvych disappeared in Sevastopol.” (Democratic Alliance, March 16, 2014)

“According to the report, the last thing he managed to say: “If I do not get in touch anymore, then please report: they are smashing in the doors of my apartment on Khrustalova Street. They are the police and pro-Russian “self-defense”, there are many of them, I have metal doors, but I do not know how long they will stand.

“I spoke with Father Mykola today at around 12:00. He told me that Finnish journalists would come for an interview. Probably at the time of the attack, they could stay in his apartment,”—said the head of the Information Department of Greek-Catholic Church Ihor Yatsiv.

“Besides, parishioners of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church from Yevpatoria reported that their priest Bogdan Kostecki had also disappeared today.

“They report that on Saturday he returned from western city of Ternopil, where he brought his family. On the same day he told his wife that he has already gone to Crimea, and then disappeared. His phones are switched off.

“It became known that Father Ihor Havryliv has also disappeared. According to the preliminary information, he was in a car together with Father Bogdan Kostecki.”

“Our priests and bishops have been very close to the people,” said Bishop Borys. “We’ve been inspired by the example of Our Lord [Who] went a long distance from fellowship with the Father to incarnate Himself and be in our reality.”

He said they have also been inspired by the words of Pope Francis “who said a pastor needs to have the smell of his sheep”. And our pastors have been with the people, and they’re today with the people enduring this occupation in the Crimea.” (Vatican Radio)

When utter control over vulnerable populations is the chief aim of politicians like Vladimir Putin, claiming to be Christian gets them to where they want to be.

Perhaps Putin learned that from President Barack Obama.








Kidnapped Sevastopol Priest Released After Interrogation

March 16, 2014

A priest of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, Mykola Kvych, was released late March 16, 2014, and allowed to go home after being kidnapped by armed representatives of (the new) Crimean authorities and the so-called “self-defense.”

As reported to the Institute for Religious Freedom by the Department for Pastoral Care in the Armed Forces of the Patriarchal Curia of the UGCC, the priest was held for twelve hours at the Sevastopol police station, where he was questioned harshly by local law enforcement officials who accused him of organizing provocations in Crimea.

The priest was kidnapped Saturday morning during worship. Unidentified armed men broke into the parish church of the Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary Ukrainian Catholic Church in the city of Sevastopol. Father Mykola Kvych, who served as rector of the parish and principal military chaplain of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church in Crimea, was seized and taken to an unknown destination.

At the same time, a search was conducted in Fr. Mykola’s own home, where 10 bullet-proof vests were found. Father Mykola had these articles of self-defense in his possession as part of his pastoral ministry to provide humanitarian aid to Ukrainian soldiers in Crimea, who are blocked by unmarked Russian troops, and for journalists who are increasingly exposed to attacks while covering events on the peninsula.

However, the self-proclaimed Crimean government wants to prosecute the priest for possession of body armor without permission. An indictment has been drawn up and the hearing is to take place in Sevastopol in two weeks.

“Bullet-proof vests and helmets in such a case cannot be subject to any administrative or criminal prosecution,” explained Maksym Paliy, doctor of law, police colonel and head of the Department of Criminal Law and Criminology at the Donetsk Law Institute, in commentary prepared for the Institute for Religious Freedom.

According to Paliy, the indictment against the priest does not contain any apparent administrative offences since “bullet-proof vests are not included in the special self-defense equipment that is limited by Article 195-1 of the Code of Ukraine on Administrative Offences.”

For his part, Fr. Mykola categorically denies all the allegations against him. He said that he would remain with his faithful in Crimea in spite of the threats.

According to the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church, during March 2014, priests have not received a single written or vocal threat with the demand to leave Crimean territory. Furthermore, all the pastors of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church have decided not to leave their faithful, especially in these very difficult times.

In addition, on March 13, during a press conference, Patriarch Filaret (Denisenko) of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church-Kyiv Patriarchate expressed his concerns that the communities of the Orthodox Church-Kyiv Patriarchate in Crimea would be banned “after the so-called referendum and the declaration of Crimea as Russian territory,” which could then lead to attempts to seize churches and attacks on the faithful of the Kyiv Patriarchate.

It should be noted that the unlawful interference with religious observance and the disruption or threatened disruption of a religious observance is a criminal offense under Article 180 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine. Equally criminal is any violation of the equality of citizens regardless of their race, nationality of religion, as addressed in Article 161 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine.

Source: http://www.irs.in.ua/index.php?optio...mid=61&lang=uk

[American Patriot]

Gosh, Christians being forced out? Awwwww... all these fucking Putin lovers... go to hell.

[American Patriot]

Ryan, I think now it is appropriate to say..

"I told you so!"

About Putin and Russia.

[American Patriot]

Ukraine unrest will be resolved by force or talks in 48 hours, official says

CNN

- ‎26 minutes ago‎

Kiev (CNN) -- Ukrainian acting Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said Wednesday that the separatist protests in Ukraine's eastern region would be resolved within 48 hours -- either through negotiations or the use of force.

[American Patriot]

Kiev Threatens to Use Force to End Standoff

Top Ukraine Official Says Authorities Are Ready to Intervene Against Protesters





By Lukas I. Alpert
connect

Updated April 9, 2014 11:17 a.m. ET

Pro-Russian protesters strengthen a barricade in front of the occupied regional administration building in Donetsk, Ukraine, on Wednesday. European Pressphoto Agency




MOSCOW—Ukraine's top police official said Wednesday that the authorities were ready to use force to end the days-old occupation of government buildings by pro-Kremlin activists in the country's east.
"I think that a resolution of this crisis will be found in the next 48 hours," Interior Minister Arsen Avakov said at a cabinet meeting in the capital, Kiev. "There are two possible ways it can happen: either through the negotiation process or through forceful intervention."
Russia has warned that the use of force to dislodge the would-be separatists could provoke a civil war in Ukraine.
On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin ramped up the pressure on Ukraine's fledgling government by threatening to force it to pay in advance for natural gas supplies because of mounting debts.
"Our partners in Europe recognize the legitimacy of the current Kiev government but do nothing to support Ukraine—not a single dollar, not a single euro," Mr. Putin said in Moscow. "Russia doesn't recognize the legitimacy of the Kiev authorities but still continues providing economic support and subsidizing the Ukrainian economy with hundreds of millions and billions of dollars. Of course, this situation cannot last forever."
To that end, he said Ukraine could be required to make natural-gas payments one month in advance due to a growing unpaid bill, which Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said now totals $16.6 billion. That figure is far higher than has been accepted by Ukrainian authorities.
The European Union in early March pledged a $15 billion aid package to Ukraine over several years, and this month the U.S. Congress approved $1 billion in loan guarantees. The International Monetary Fund also has said it was prepared to give Ukraine an $18 billion loan, although the agreement hasn't yet been completed.
Mr. Avakov's comments turn up the heat on pro-Kremlin protesters in the industrial cities of Donetsk, Kharkiv and Luhansk, where many ethnic Russians live.

A woman wrapped in a Russian national flag walks in front of a barricade at the regional administration building in Donetsk, Ukraine, on Wednesday. Associated Press




Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said ultimatums from Kiev would do little to resolve the crisis. "Talk is essential. They must listen to the people," he said.
Ukraine has accused Moscow of instigating the protests, which began Sunday, to orchestrate a takeover similar to that seen in Crimea last month ahead of its annexation by Russia. Separatists were driven out of the government building in Kharkiv on Tuesday but remain entrenched in Donetsk and Luhansk, where the situation remained volatile.
Ukrainian officials said 56 people left a state-security building in Luhansk overnight, amid ongoing negotiations to resolve the occupation there.
It remained unclear whether the people were hostages or protesters, and how many remained in the building Wednesday. There were reports that those still inside were bolstering barricades and appeared to be preparing for a prolonged siege.
On Tuesday, Ukraine's state security service, the SBU, said the protesters had taken 60 people hostage and had set explosives around the building, but this was denied by the people inside the building. Officials also had said the protesters had seized a large cache of weapons held inside.
In a video apparently made inside the building and posted online Tuesday, a man in a balaclava mask with three men holding automatic weapons standing behind him demanded a referendum on the region's status as part of Ukraine. The man warned against any attempt to storm the building.
Pro-Russian activists remain in control of the regional government building in Donetsk, around which they have erected barricades of tires and sandbags. On Monday, the group had declared itself the provisional council of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and demanded a referendum on the region's independence.
The head of Donetsk's regional administration said the local government had ground to a halt as a result of the standoff.

Ukrainian policemen stand guard in font of the Kharkiv regional state administration building on April 8. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images




Map

View Graphics






Unrest in Eastern Ukraine



"This has paralyzed work for citizens' economic well-being, the payment of benefits, salaries and pensions," Sergei Taruta said. "On my instructions, negotiations are being conducted with the occupiers of the regional council building."
The Russian Foreign Ministry on Wednesday sought to reassure the West that the large number of troops it has positioned near Ukraine's border pose no threat.
"The United States and Ukraine have no reason to be worried," the ministry said. "Russia has stated many times that it is not carrying out any unusual or unplanned activity on its territory near the border with Ukraine that would be of military significance."
Russia has repeatedly said it reserves the right to protect ethnic Russians living in Ukraine, who it claims are under threat from nationalist forces in the country.

[American Patriot]

Satellites Show Russian Forces Poised Near Ukraine

By DAVID M. HERSZENHORNAPRIL 10, 2014

Photo

Pro-Russian demonstrators gathered by the main barricade in front of the administrative building in Donetsk, Ukraine, which they have occupied for days. Credit Mauricio Lima for The New York Times

Continue reading the main story


Continue reading the main story Share This Page

• email
• facebook
• twitter
• save
• more

Continue reading the main story
Continue reading the main story This story is included with an NYT Now subscription.
Learn More »



MOSCOW — NATO released satellite photographs on Thursday showing Russian military equipment, including fighter jets and tanks, that it described as part of a deployment of as many as 40,000 troops near the border with Ukraine. The release came the same day that President Vladimir V. Putin reiterated a threat to curtail gas sales to Ukraine.
The photographs, taken by a commercial satellite imaging company called DigitalGlobe, offered some of the first documentary evidence of a military buildup that the West says Russia could use to invade Ukraine at any moment. They were released at a news conference in Belgium by Brig. Gary Deakin, the director of NATO’s Comprehensive Crisis and Operations Management Center.

Continue reading the main story

Related Coverage

• 
  In Eastern Ukraine, a One-Building, Pro-Russia Realm Persists Despite CriticismAPRIL 9, 2014
  
  

The Kremlin has accused the West of exaggerating Russia’s military presence along the Ukrainian border and has insisted that it has no plans for a second military incursion after its lightning-quick occupation and annexation of Crimea. Still, Russia has warned that it may take military action to protect ethnic Russians in Ukraine if they are threatened.

Photo

A satellite image from DigitalGlobe, a commercial vendor, shows what NATO officials say is a Russian artillery battalion in Novocherkassk, not far from the border with Ukraine. Credit DigitalGlobe, via Shape

Officials said they had distributed commercial photographs, rather than pictures taken by military satellites, because of the complexities of declassifying classified images.
The United States government has a contractual arrangement with DigitalGlobe, based in Colorado, that allows images taken by the company to be shared among federal agencies, as well as with American allies.
DigitalGlobe sells satellite photographs from all over the world, of sites of cultural interest as well as of military and geopolitical subjects such as a parade in the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, in 2012. A spokeswoman for the company declined to comment on Thursday.
President Obama and other Western leaders have said that Russia has massed troops and equipment along its borders and have demanded that the Kremlin withdraw those forces. The top NATO commander, Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, said in an interview last week that Russia’s 40,000 troops could attack on 12 hours’ notice.

Continue reading the main story

Ukraine Crisis in Maps

A visual survey of the continuing dispute, including satellite images of Russian naval positions and maps showing political, cultural and economic factors in the crisis.

At the news conference on Thursday, Brigadier Deakin said the photographs showed a menacing force.
“The Russians have an array of capabilities, including aircraft, helicopters, special forces, tanks, artillery, infantry fighting vehicles,” Brigadier Deakin said, according to a NATO news release. “These could move in a matter of hours.”
The photographs were taken between March 22 and April 2. One image shows more than 20 helicopters near the Russian city of Belgorod, about 25 miles from the Ukrainian border. Other images were taken farther from the border, including at Yeysk and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, across the Sea of Azov from Ukraine.
In addition to accusing the West of exaggerating Russia’s military presence, the Kremlin said on Thursday that any stationing of NATO troops near Russia’s borders would be a violation of international agreements.

Continue reading the main story Video Play Video

Video|1:50

Credit Oleg Shishkov/European Pressphoto Agency

Officials on Unrest in Ukraine

On Monday, officials from the United States, Russia and Britain discussed the growing unrest and violence in the Ukrainian cities of Donetsk, Kharkiv and Luhansk.

The Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said in an interview with the Interfax news service that NATO was prepared to breach those accords “in order to satisfy absolutely groundless fears, phobias and ambitions of a minority of its country members.”
In a letter to European leaders on Thursday, Mr. Putin warned that Russia would probably start forcing Ukraine to pay a month in advance for natural gas or risk being cut off. He said in the letter that Russia had worked aggressively in recent years to support Ukraine financially, and he accused the West of exploiting Ukraine and damaging its economy.
“To a large extent, the crisis in Ukraine’s economy has been precipitated by the unbalanced trade with the E.U. member states, and this, in turn, has had a sharply negative impact on Ukraine’s fulfillment of its contractual obligations to pay for deliveries of natural gas supplied by Russia,” Mr. Putin wrote, referring to the European Union.
He noted that Russia had offered Ukraine billions of dollars in loans. “What about the European partners?” Mr. Putin asked. “Instead of offering Ukraine real support, there is talk about a declaration of intent. There are only promises that are not backed up by any real actions.”
Mr. Putin said the West’s refusal to take Russia into account had left the Kremlin no choice but to demand advance payment for gas. A cutoff could threaten Europe, he added, if Ukraine tried to siphon off gas passing through its territory. Europe receives about 13 percent of its gas supply from pipelines running through Ukraine, though it has worked in recent years to reduce that dependence.

[American Patriot]

Satellite images reveal Russian military buildup on Ukraine's border

Nato images show fighter planes, helicopters and troops which officials say could be ready to move in 12 hours

• Share
• Tweet this
• Email

• Leo Cendrowicz in Brussels, Luke Harding and Alec Luhn
  
• The Guardian, Thursday 10 April 2014 10.58 EDT
• Jump to comments (2919)

A satellite image shows Russian SU-33 fighter planes near Ukraine's border. DigitalGlobe

Nato has released satellite images of the Russian military buildup on Ukraine’s eastern border: a powerful concentration of fighter planes, helicopters, artillery, infantry and special forces which officials say could be ready to move with just 12 hours notice.

The images appear to undermine official suggestions from Moscow that there is nothing unusual about the troop movements, nor any reason to be alarmed.

The pictures show rows of hundreds of tanks and armoured vehicles apparently waiting for orders in fields and other temporary locations around 30 miles (50km) from the frontier. The images, taken in the past two weeks, show some of what Nato said was around 100 staging areas that were almost entirely unoccupied in February.

One of the images showed the previously empty Buturlinovka airbase 90 miles from the border now hosting dozens of fast jets, even though there are no hangars or other infrastructure normally associated with such activity. Another, of Belgorod, 25 miles from the border, showed about 21 helicopters on a greenfield site – again with no hangers or infrastructure – which officials said could be part of a forward operating base.

Russian SU-27/30, SU-24 and MiG-31 fighter jets on the tarmac at Buturlinovka airbase. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

“This is a capable force, ready to go,” said Brigadier Gary Deakin, who runs Nato’s crisis operations and management centre at the alliance’s military headquarters near Mons, Belgium. “It has the resources to move quickly into Ukraine if it was ordered to do so. It is poised at the moment, and it could move very fast.”

Deakin said between 35,000 and 40,000 Russian troops were “at a state of advanced readiness”, and could deploy “within 12 hours from a decision taken at the highest level”. With many of the troops and tanks currently based within about 30 miles from the border, that could mean crossing into Ukrainian territory within an hour of moving.

According to Nato the images reveal telltale signs of an invading force, and not merely troops on “exercise” as Moscow has claimed. The images apparently show that in Kuzminka, where tanks and infantry fighting vehicles have gathered, there are no proper barracks, significant buildings or even parking. “We just don’t see much infrastructure. There is more here than it was built for,” said Deakin.

Primorko-Akhtarsk airbase in southern Russia. Photograph: AP

Deakin warned that a potential strike force could go further than Ukraine’s eastern regions where pro-Russian elements are currently demanding secession. “Undoubtedly it could strike into eastern Ukraine, but it could also do a land bridge to Crimea, and potentially even down the Black Sea coast to Odessa. The capability is there, but we don’t know the intent,” Deakin said. “That is grounds for concern.” With a total armed personnel of just 130,000, Ukraine would be unlikely to provide much resistance to the invading Russians, officials added.

The images were released as separatist protests in mainly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine entered their fifth day, with pro-Moscow supporters still out in a standoff in two cities. Kiev has said protesters who seized public buildings in Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv are copying events in Crimea, annexed by Russia last month.

Moscow has denied it is preparing an invading force. The Russian foreign ministry insisted on Wednesday that troops near Ukraine’s border posed no threat and the movements were nothing more than the “everyday activity of Russian troops on its territory”. But the Nato secretary general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, dismissed these claims. “As I speak, some 40,000 Russian troops are massed along Ukraine’s borders,” Rasmussen said in Prague on Thursday. “Not training, but ready for combat. We have seen the satellite images, day after day.”

A satellite image purporting to show Russian special forces at Yeysk, southern Russia. Photograph: AP

Russian officials have also accused Washington and Nato of fuelling tension in the region, with the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, claiming in a Guardian article that it the US and EU that are destabilising Ukraine.

Senior Nato officials have warned that the buildup is already having a psychological, destabilising effect, helping stoke up the turmoil in eastern Ukraine. “These masked guys would not be taking over government buildings if there were not 40,000 soldiers just across the border,” said one official.

The revelations come before next week’s meeting of top diplomats from the EU, Russia, Ukraine and the United States to discuss the crisis. The meeting’s venue has still to be decided, but it will gather Lavrov, the US secretary of state, John Kerry, the EU foreign policy chief, Catherine Ashton, and Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andriy Deshchytsia.

At the same time, Nato is drawing up measures to bolster its defences in central and eastern Europe, and is likely to include a tripling of air patrols in the Baltics. Nato’s top military commander, the US air force general Philip Breedlove, will present proposals for air, land and sea reinforcements to Nato ambassadors next week. Britain is among the Nato members offering support, including four Typhoons, while Denmark has offered four F-16s and France has put forward another four, either Rafales or Mirages.

[American Patriot]

West struggles as Russia moves to dominate old USSR

By Peter Apps
LONDON Fri Apr 11, 2014 1:09pm IST

0 Comments

• Tweet
• Link this
• Share this
• digg
• Email
• Print

Pro-Russian protesters stand next to a barricade in front of the seized office of the SBU state security service in Luhansk, in eastern Ukraine April 10, 2014.
Credit: Reuters/Shamil Zhumatov




Related Topics

• Top News »
• World »

Election 2014

It is the largest election in the world, ever. Click here for stories, pictures, analyses, facts and schedule about India election. Full Coverage

• Rock and Roll Hall of Fame
• Shadow of Air Force One
• Crisis in Ukraine
• Amputee turtle swims again
• Cherry blossoms in bloom

» Click here for more slideshows





(Reuters) - NATO says tens of thousands of Russian troops are massed on the border with Ukraine for a potential invasion, yet Western states still lack a strategy to stop Moscow from intervening in its former Soviet neighbours.
With military action to protect non-NATO states effectively ruled out, current and former officials say sanctions and isolation provide the best - and perhaps only - way to pressure Moscow. Ramping up the pressure on the rich and powerful around President Vladimir Putin, they say, might in time push him towards a much more conciliatory approach.
But that, they concede, could prove a long game, and some both in and outside government worry that a more isolated Russia may simply become both more nationalist and self-sufficient. Putting Putin under more pressure, they worry, may give him even more incentive to take a populist, more aggressive approach.
Ultimately, Moscow's commitment to rebuild the former USSR as its own unilateral sphere of influence may outstrip the determination of Washington and its European allies to stop it.
Experts say Moscow has been infiltrating its neighbours ever more deeply, building its influence amongst security forces, government officials and politicians. That, some say, allows it to stir up instability in locations like eastern Ukraine and create both confusion and potential preconditions to invade.
"What we're seeing here is a new form of warfare and part of a concerted strategy," said Chris Donnelly, a former senior adviser to NATO on Russia and now director of the Institute for Statecraft in London. "Either we stand up to it or we let it happen. So far the response has been totally inadequate."
With Russia's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula now largely seen an irreversible fait accompli, many now see more confrontation over the years to come.
In a March 18 speech following the Crimea intervention, Putin made it clear he would be willing to use force to safeguard the interests of Russian-speaking minorities.
The breakup of the USSR left some 25 million ethnic Russians outside the borders of the Russian Federation, concentrated in places like Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Central Asian and Baltic states and breakaway enclaves in Georgia and Moldova.
Tens of millions more - classified in their old Soviet passports as ethnic Ukrainians, Belarussians or others - speak Russian as their first language.
There may be little Western states can do to stop Moscow reabsorbing into the Russian Federation three breakaway statelets its military already occupies - Moldova's Transdniestria region and Georgia's South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Nor is there political will to stop Russia going further if truly determined to do so. The only true red line, some say, is that attacking the NATO member Baltic states would trigger NATO's self defence clause and a wider war with the alliance and its nuclear super power the United States.
"LITTLE WEST CAN DO"
"We are in new territory," said one Western official on condition of anonymity. "Realistically there is little the West can do to prevent Putin invading Ukraine or other non-NATO former Soviet states except for applying diplomatic and economic pressure. The priority now is to deter any aggression against NATO."
The strongest message western states could send to Moscow, some experts suggest, is that for every move Russia takes to entrench its position in the areas it can control, the closer other countries near its orbit will move to the West.
That would mean greater economic support, possibly moves towards EU accession for European ex-Soviet states like Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, and perhaps new energy and economic deals with Central Asia.
On Wednesday, Reuters reported that Kazakhstan - a reliable Russian ally that has publicly supported Moscow's actions in Ukraine - is seeking alternative export routes for its oil if sanctions on Russia are tightened.
Building up and supporting such states to make them more resilient to Russian influence, however, is dependent on those governments themselves finding stability. With Ukraine still mired in political crisis and Russian influence growing across the ex-Soviet Union that could prove overly optimistic.
Further Russian action would probably wreck an informal agreement not to base significant US or Western European military forces in former Soviet-dominated Eastern Europe, particularly the three tiny Baltic states, the only parts of NATO and the EU that were directly ruled by Moscow.
Moscow has long complained the West went back on a pledge not to push the boundaries of NATO and the EU to Russian's border. Now it could see NATO troops permanently based there.
The U.S.S. Donald Cook, a guided missile destroyer, entered the Black Sea on Thursday to participate in exercises "to reassure NATO allies". A French intelligence vessel was also due to pass through the Bosphorus.
But so far, economic pressure has been the only real weapon in the Western arsenal, and its effectiveness as a deterrent is difficult to assess.
Sanctions imposed on a few dozen Russian figures by the United States and Europe over Crimea have been explicitly designed not to have wide ranging economic consequences.
Both Washington and Brussels have threatened much tougher measures if Russian troops move into other parts of Ukraine. That risk has accelerated capital flight from Russia, hurting its economy, but only indirectly.
So far, Putin has not sent troops in. But no one apart from the Kremlin leader himself can say for certain whether he has held back because of the threat to Russian prosperity from sanctions, or for other reasons.
Western states have been unwilling to define in detail what tougher sanctions would mean. That, some say, reduces the impact of the threat. Suggested steps, such as wide-ranging asset freezes or moves to wean Europe off Russian gas, would hurt Western states as well as Moscow.
TOUGH WINTERS COMING?
Targeting Russian investors more widely as well as Putin's personal wealth and cancelling French export deals for two helicopter carriers could also be on the table, officials say. Such moves, however, would cost jobs as well as potentially undermining financial markets and real estate prices.
Still, supporters say tough sanctions have proved effective against Iran, bringing it to the table on nuclear issues.
"This is a timely wake-up call," said Michael Leigh, former deputy head of external relations for the European Commission and now senior adviser to the German Marshall Fund. "With the West scarcely responding to Crimea, Putin may feel he has nothing to lose for further annexation.
"A couple of tough winters is a price worth paying."
A Russian move into eastern Ukraine would almost certainly spark at least limited military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. How the West would react to that is currently very far from clear.
In Washington, President Barack Obama faces calls to arm Ukraine and step up training and other military links. But there is little real enthusiasm for direct involvement, much less a nuclear face-off with Moscow.
If a Russian invasion did spark a messy insurgency, the West might find itself gradually dragged into providing at least some covert support to Kiev or any other Western-leaning government in a similar position. But it would almost certainly remain extremely limited.
On April 1, NATO announced what it called "concrete measures" to boost Ukraine's ability to defend itself. In reality, however, these appeared limited to ill-defined "capacity building" measures and boosting the size of NATO's liaison office in the capital.
"It's not that the West couldn't stop it - a couple of brigades of NATO troops would almost certainly deter an invasion," says Dmitri Gorenburg, Russia analyst at the Centre for Naval Analyses, a U.S. government-funded body that advises the military. "But that isn't going to happen. When it comes to pushing back Russia's actions in the former Soviet Union, there is no strategy and there is no appetite."

[Avvakum]

Ryan, I think now it is appropriate to say..

"I told you so!"

About Putin and Russia.

And not just Ryan.

You were right, I was wrong.

I don't care about the 'Uniates' so much as the Uniates treatment shows the 'Devil's Pact' of the old Sergianist/Nikonian false Russian Orthodox Clergy with their Atheist Gangster crony Capitalist 'Tsar'.

And I was wrong about the Ukraine and Svoboda and 'Right Sector', only that the same kind of Gangsters as affiliated with Putin are running the show in Kiev, 'New Bosses' same as the 'Old Bosses'. Note that they turned on Svoboda and 'Right Sector' recently too?

Putin and Obama will come to terms, because the aid that the West gives to Ukraine (to be paid back with interest and a sell-out of the common people) will be used to pay Putin's Russia and keep the fuel coming. It's all a damn game over money to them, with the 'brinksmanship' used to fool the world while the Ukraine is gutted like a dead animal.