China preparing for armed conflict 'in every direction'

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Asia's balance of power

China’s military rise

There are ways to reduce the threat to stability that an emerging superpower poses

Apr 7th 2012 | from the print edition



NO MATTER how often China has emphasised the idea of a peaceful rise, the pace and nature of its military modernisation inevitably cause alarm. As America and the big European powers reduce their defence spending, China looks likely to maintain the past decade’s increases of about 12% a year.

Even though its defence budget is less than a quarter the size of America’s today, China’s generals are ambitious. The country is on course to become the world’s largest military spender in just 20 years or so (see article).

Much of its effort is aimed at deterring America from intervening in a future crisis over Taiwan. China is investing heavily in “asymmetric capabilities” designed to blunt America’s once-overwhelming capacity to project power in the region. This “anti-access/area denial” approach includes thousands of accurate land-based ballistic and cruise missiles, modern jets with anti-ship missiles, a fleet of submarines (both conventionally and nuclear-powered), long-range radars and surveillance satellites, and cyber and space weapons intended to “blind” American forces. Most talked about is a new ballistic missile said to be able to put a manoeuvrable warhead onto the deck of an aircraft-carrier 2,700km (1,700 miles) out at sea.
In this section

• »China’s military rise
• All clear?
• The Yangon spring
• Message to Ankara
• The perils of panflation

China says all this is defensive, but its tactical doctrines emphasise striking first if it must. Accordingly, China aims to be able to launch disabling attacks on American bases in the western Pacific and push America’s carrier groups beyond what it calls the “first island chain”, sealing off the Yellow Sea, South China Sea and East China Sea inside an arc running from the Aleutians in the north to Borneo in the south. Were Taiwan to attempt formal secession from the mainland, China could launch a series of pre-emptive strikes to delay American intervention and raise its cost prohibitively.

This has already had an effect on China’s neighbours, who fear that it will draw them into its sphere of influence. Japan, South Korea, India and even Australia are quietly spending more on defence, especially on their navies.

Barack Obama’s new “pivot” towards Asia includes a clear signal that America will still guarantee its allies’ security. This week a contingent of 200 US marines arrived in Darwin, while India took formal charge of a nuclear submarine, leased from Russia.

En garde

The prospect of an Asian arms race is genuinely frightening, but prudent concern about China’s build-up must not lapse into hysteria. For the moment at least, China is far less formidable than hawks on both sides claim. Its armed forces have had no real combat experience for more than 30 years, whereas America’s have been fighting, and learning, constantly.

The capacity of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) for complex joint operations in a hostile environment is untested. China’s formidable missile and submarine forces would pose a threat to American carrier groups near its coast, but not farther out to sea for some time at least. Blue-water operations for China’s navy are limited to anti-piracy patrolling in the Indian Ocean and the rescue of Chinese workers from war-torn Libya. Two or three small aircraft-carriers may soon be deployed, but learning to use them will take many years. Nobody knows if the “carrier-killer” missile can be made to work.



As for China’s longer-term intentions, the West should acknowledge that it is hardly unnatural for a rising power to aspire to have armed forces that reflect its growing economic clout. China consistently devotes a bit over 2% of GDP to defence—about the same as Britain and France and half of what America spends. That share may fall if Chinese growth slows or the government faces demands for more social spending. China might well use force to stop Taiwan from formally seceding. Yet, apart from claims over the virtually uninhabited Spratly and Paracel Islands, China is not expansionist:

it already has its empire. Its policy of non-interference in the affairs of other states constrains what it can do itself.

The trouble is that China’s intentions are so unpredictable. On the one hand China is increasingly willing to engage with global institutions. Unlike the old Soviet Union, it has a stake in the liberal world economic order, and no interest in exporting a competing ideology. The Communist Party’s legitimacy depends on being able to honour its promise of prosperity. A cold war with the West would undermine that. On the other hand, China engages with the rest of the world on its own terms, suspicious of institutions it believes are run to serve Western interests. And its assertiveness, particularly in maritime territorial disputes, has grown with its might. The dangers of military miscalculation are too high for comfort.

How to avoid accidents

It is in China’s interests to build confidence with its neighbours, reduce mutual strategic distrust with America and demonstrate its willingness to abide by global norms. A good start would be to submit territorial disputes over islands in the East and South China Seas to international arbitration.

Another step would be to strengthen promising regional bodies such as the East Asian Summit and ASEAN Plus Three. Above all, Chinese generals should talk far more with American ones. At present, despite much Pentagon prompting, contacts between the two armed forces are limited, tightly controlled by the PLA and ritually frozen by politicians whenever they want to “punish” America—usually because of a tiff over Taiwan.

America’s response should mix military strength with diplomatic subtlety. It must retain the ability to project force in Asia: to do otherwise would feed Chinese hawks’ belief that America is a declining power which can be shouldered aside. But it can do more to counter China’s paranoia. To his credit, Mr Obama has sought to lower tensions over Taiwan and made it clear that he does not want to contain China (far less encircle it as Chinese nationalists fear). America must resist the temptation to make every security issue a test of China’s good faith. There are bound to be disagreements between the superpowers; and if China cannot pursue its own interests within the liberal world order, it will become more awkward and potentially belligerent. That is when things could get nasty.

[American Patriot]

YAY! We're safe now, Biden said so.

Biden: Conflict With China Not Inevitable




U.S. Vice President Joe Biden (L) chats with Chinese Vice Premier Li Yuanchao before their luncheon at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, Dec. 5, 2013.

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William Ide
December 05, 2013

BEIJING — U.S. Vice President Joe Biden says that while Washington's relationship with Beijing is complex and the two countries have real differences, conflict is not inevitable. Biden made his those remarks Thursday on the last day of his stopover in Beijing on a three-nation tour to Asia.

Biden's trip to Asia has been overshadowed by concerns about China's recent establishment of an air defense identification zone over the East China Sea that includes territory also claimed by Japan.

Computer screens display map showing outline of China's new air defense zone in the East China Sea, website of Chinese Ministry of Defense, Beijing, Nov. 26, 2013.


China says the zone was established to safeguard the country's national security and that it will not affect freedom of aviation in the area. So far, China has not interfered with flights in the zone, but it has scrambled fighter jets to the area, heightening concerns about a possible miscalculation in the air.

The U.S., Japan, and South Korea have all sent military planes to the region in recent days, defying China's demand that they notify Beijing beforehand.

The zone was one of several key issues Biden discussed in more than five hours of meetings Wednesday with China's President Xi Jinping.

Although the vice president refrained from speaking out on the issue publicly prior to that meeting, he touched on it during an address Thursday to a group of business leaders in Beijing.

“China's recent and sudden announcement of the establishment of a new air defense identification zone has, to state the obvious, caused significant apprehension in the region. And I was very direct about our firm position and our expectations in my conversations with President Xi," he said.

Biden also noted that differences between the U.S. and China go far beyond security issues.

"We've had many disagreements, and some profound disagreements on some of those issues right now, the treatment of U.S. journalists, but I believe China will be stronger and more stable and more innovative if it respects universal human rights," he said.

Forging a new relationship

But, the vice president added that while the relationship is complex and differences real, conflict with China is not inevitable. He says that the United States and China are working to forge a new relationship between major powers that is defined by constructive cooperation.

“Wholesome competition and strong competition is fundamentally different than conflict. In fact, we see considerable common interest on the security side. A secure and peaceful Asia Pacific enables economic growth for the entire region," he said.

Click to enlarge


During his trip to Asia, Biden has been urging China to take steps to reduce tensions over the zone. On his first stop in Japan, he suggested establishing "confidence building measures, including emergency communications channels.”

When asked what China thought of Biden’s suggestions, however, a Foreign Ministry spokesman noted Thursday that during meetings with Chinese leaders both countries agreed that they should enhance dialogue and communication. The spokesman urged Washington to respect China’s establishment of the zone, which it says was done in line with international laws and conventions.

After visiting China, Biden travels next to South Korea, which has also expressed reservations about the ADIZ. Seoul is the last stop on his Asian tour.

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Biden's Trip to Beijing Leaves China Air-Zone Rift Open

Vice President Says U.S. Doesn't Recognize Air-Defense Zone; Xi Shows No Sign of Backing Down

By Peter Nicholas and Jeremy Page
connect Updated Dec. 4, 2013 10:29 p.m. ET


A newly declared air-defense zone is at the heart of tensions between China and the U.S. and its allies in Asia. We take a closer look at this critical flashpoint on The Foreign Bureau, WSJ's global news update. (Photo: Getty)

Vice President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping ended more than five hours of face-to-face meetings in Beijing without resolving the rising international tensions over China's declaration of a new air-defense zone, leaving questions over the next moves for each power and U.S. allies in the region.

Mr. Biden, visiting Beijing on Wednesday, pressed the point that the White House "doesn't recognize" the zone over the East China Sea and wants China's leadership to avoid actions that could lead to confrontations with Japan and other nations, a U.S. official said.

Mr. Xi, in turn, laid out China's position in the dispute, but made no commitment to rolling back the zone, U.S. officials said. Rather, he indicated he would "take on board" Mr. Biden's requests.

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A U.S. official, briefing reporters in Beijing after the meetings, said: "From our perspective, it's up to China. And we'll see how things unfold in the coming days and weeks."

As part of his argument in favor of reducing tensions, Mr. Biden told Mr. Xi that China should adopt a series of measures to restore trust and confidence among neighbors in the region, including by establishing a system of emergency communications, or hot lines, that would rapidly connect officials from China and Japan, and possibly other countries.

"The most urgent thing is, we want them to work with Japan and South Korea directly to do confidence-building measures," said a senior administration official.

In an illustration of the fine points of superpower diplomacy, the U.S. didn't directly ask China to rescind the air-defense identification zone it established last month. And Washington didn't expect Mr. Xi to abolish the zone by the time Mr. Biden left for a scheduled stop Thursday in South Korea.

Enlarge Image

PING-PONG DIPLOMACY: David Cameron, seen playing table tennis at a primary school in Chengdu on Wednesday, didn't address growing regional tensions over China's new air-defense zone, but said he had no regrets about meeting with the Dalai Lama last year, a move that chilled relations with Beijing. Associated Press

"I don't think that folks had the impression the vice president would return from Asia and the defense zone would be gone," said Julianne Smith, a former national security aide to Mr. Biden. "What they wanted to do was to start a face-to-face conversation."

Mr. Biden sought to rely on an element of personal diplomacy to end a crisis that has rattled Japan and South Korea and created a new point of confrontation between the U.S. and China. People close to Mr. Biden said he has forged a strong relationship with Mr. Xi over the years, and brought those ties to bear in meetings and at dinner Wednesday.

But some analysts questioned whether Mr. Biden took the correct approach to a visit with such high stakes.

"He did well according to normal diplomatic protocol, but this wasn't a normal diplomatic situation," said Michael Auslin, director of Japan Studies at the American Enterprise Institute. "Our allies were hoping for something much stronger, and I think they're probably going to feel that they're going to be on their own."

In South Korea, Mr. Biden will try to persuade an old ally not to take actions that escalate the crisis.

Seoul last week responded to China's air-defense zone by saying it was considering expanding its own air-defense zone, impinging not only on China's claims but on a zone previously declared by Japan. A formal announcement was delayed, probably until Mr. Biden completes his visit with President Park Geun-hye.

South Korea also has a history of disagreements with Japan over territorial and historic differences, and experts saw the Chinese move last month as an opportunity for the U.S. to bring Tokyo and Seoul closer together. In light of Japan's feelings and Mr. Biden's visit, the South Koreans appeared to be moving cautiously.

Mr. Biden's trip to the region came in the midst of an unexpected outbreak of animosity over the Chinese air-defense zone, put into place over islands that are the subject of a long-running dispute with Japan.

The U.S. initially challenged the Chinese by flying B-52 bombers and other military aircraft through the zone without complying with requirements to notify Beijing.

However, once in Beijing, Mr. Biden's first message to the Chinese leader was, "We've got to unwind this tension," the senior administration official said.
As for the new air-defense zone, "We're not going to recognize it," the official said. "The risk of escalation here is enormous. And that's why we're so intensively addressing it."

Neither leader mentioned the zone directly in their public comments, but people familiar with the talks said the two men discussed it during the course of two meetings and a dinner.

In public remarks, Mr. Xi said that while bilateral ties were generally positive, the international landscape was undergoing "profound and complex changes," noting that "regional hot-spot issues keep cropping up."

"The world, as a whole, is not tranquil," Mr. Xi said. "To strengthen cooperation and dialogue is the only right choice facing both our countries."
Mr. Biden said the U.S. relationship with China was full of promise but needed to be "based on trust, and a positive notion about the motive of one another.

On Thursday morning, Mr. Biden told executives of U.S. companies doing business in China that the country's new air zone had created "apprehension" in the region but that Beijing and Washington have an opportunity to establish "new rules for the road."

He also praised China's efforts to reform its economy, and said, "As China's economy grows, its responsibility to ensure regional stability will grow."

Japanese officials and security experts have expressed frustration by what they see as Washington's muddled response to China's aggression, a fear that has been exacerbated, rather than alleviated, so far during Mr. Biden's visit to Asia.

"We are in a very difficult position," one Japanese government official said Thursday.

Although Chinese, U.S. and Japanese military planes have likely not flown dangerously close to each other in China's zone, diplomats and analysts say, the danger lies in what happens if they narrow the gap, especially in the air over and for 12 nautical miles around the islands claimed by both China and Japan.

So far, China has mostly sent marine surveillance planes toward the islands, but they have turned around before being intercepted by Japanese fighters, according to diplomats and Western analysts.

In a confrontation between Chinese and Japanese fighters, each side would likely be under orders to ignore warnings from the other, so the encounter could quickly escalate into a contest of flying skills or even a shooting incident, analysts say.

Japanese fighters could, in theory, also be backed up by U.S. fighter jets—most likely F-15s flying from Kadena Air Base in Okinawa—though the U.S. would likely intervene only in the most extreme circumstances.

That is the least likely scenario as China has consistently avoided a direct military confrontation with forces it knows to be superior to its own, and which have trained together for several decades.

"If [Chinese fighters] engage in dogfights with Japanese fighters, they would almost certainly lose," said retired Lt. Gen. Kunio Orita of the Japan Air Self-Defense Force.

"Nobody wants to provoke a war. While this might be a change in name, in fact things will probably stay the same for the moment," said Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based Chinese military expert.

If China and Japan both enforce their claims around the islands, then "firing flares and warning shots, or shooting down the other side's planes, may not be far off," Song Zhongping, a Chinese defense analyst, was quoted as saying in China News Weekly magazine.

If tensions escalated, Chinese Su-30 and J-11 fighters would most likely fly from bases near Shanghai, military analysts say. Japan usually sends F-15s from Naha air base on the island of Okinawa to intercept Chinese planes that enter its zone.

Response to Mr. Biden's visit in China was muted. An editorial in the Global Times, a nationalist-leaning tabloid published by the People's Daily, played down tensions over the air-defense zone and blamed Japan for "intentionally creating a crisis" in an effort to force confrontation between the U.S. and China.

Chinese social media gave Mr. Biden a cooler reception than on his previous visit two years ago, when he charmed the online community by showing up at a family-run eatery to slurp down a bowl of lunchtime noodles.

"When Biden doesn't have the heart to show off, that means we're right," wrote one user of the Twitter-like Sina Weibo microblogging service.

[American Patriot]

Joe is gonna get us killed.

/sheesh

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Joe is gonna get us killed.

/sheesh

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China: Ready To Fight Anyone, Anywhere, At Any Time And Win

April 30, 2014: China has been energetically using nationalism and the promise of the restoration of lost imperial territories to distract the population from the corruption and mismanagement of government officials. This is an ancient political technique that depends on near-total control of information available to their populations. The Internet threatens that and this is a new risk for those planning to build and maintain an empire. That’s because empires are costly and inefficient. Britain realized that by the 1940s and this was the main reason they got rid of theirs so quickly after 1945 and why the United States never took advantage of its power to create one. But the allure of empire remains, sort of as the ultimate luxury a state can indulge. Again, the Internet spreads the bad news about the real cause and effect of empire. China tries to cope with this by concentrating on imperial ambitions (natural resource rights from the ownership of uninhabited rocks and reefs in the South China Sea and elsewhere off the coast) that have some practical appeal. However when empires involve conquered peoples the cost goes way up, as the Chinese are rediscovering in their northwest (Turks) and southwest (Tibetans). A growing number of Chinese are aware of these angles and are not happy about it. But China is still police states with state-controlled media. Holding anti-government opinions is dangerous, especially if you express these traitorous thoughts in public. That means even unauthorized protests against pollution can get prosecuted and convicted in China.

In furtherance of the imperial dreams China announced in late 2012 that beginning in 2013 it would start enforcing new rules that allowed Chinese naval patrols to escort or expel foreign ships from most of the South China Sea unless those ships have Chinese permission to be there. China did not start doing this right away. But over the last few months the Chinese have become more aggressive about enforcing this decree, without resorting to deadly forces. China is not using grey painted navy ships for this but rather white painted coast guard vessels.

White paint and diagonal stripes on the hull is an internationally recognized way to identify coast guard ships. This is much less threatening than warships. China also calls in civilian vessels (owners of these privately owned Chinese ships understand that refusing to help is not an option) to get in the way of foreign ships the coast guard wants gone. Thus if foreign warships open fire to try and scare away these harassing vessels they become the bad guys.

The U.S. has been recently been more active in describing how far it would go in resisting Chinese attempts to take control of the South China Sea. The U.S. recently pointed out that the sanctions being used against Russia could also be used against China. A trade war with the United States is the last thing the Chinese government wants right now, because they are having lots of problems with their economy. But the Chinese have used the South China Sea claims as part of a propaganda campaign to distract Chinese from the looming economic crises at home and backing off is not really a good option either.

Meanwhile China has some serious domestic threats. Chinese efforts to fight growing air pollution by replacing coal fueled power plants with nuclear ones is running into problems with inadequate infrastructure, poorly designed reactors and public resistance. There are no good choices here. Pollution is becoming a big issue with most Chinese and last November the government ordered an inspection of 25,000 industrial operations and nine percent were found to be violating anti-pollution laws. The way things work in China, most Chinese believe the actual percentage of violators is two or three times higher.

Paying For The Best

Taiwan has finally found a solution to its military recruiting problem; increase pay and benefits until the number of volunteers you want show up. For a long time Taiwanese would not accept the fact that pay and benefits was a key motivator. Until 2013 Taiwan kept cutting the number of military personnel on active duty and had planned to reduce its military personnel from 215,000 to 170,000 within five years. But now it may be possible to keep strength over 200,000. In China the government has been receiving similar advice. This is a growing problem in China, which needs technically trained officers and NCOs to handle the increasingly complex weapons and equipment the armed forces are receiving.

This shortage of technical people could be seen during the recent search for missing flight MH370. Most of the passengers on that flight were Chinese so China made a major effort to join other nations in searching a huge area off the west coast of Australia. China sent over 24 ships and aircraft and hyped the size and implied prowess of this force, the largest Chinese naval force to operate this far from the mainland in modern times. The reality was disappointing. Chinese ships and analysts were responsible for several embarrassing errors and it was also apparent that Chinese logistical efforts would not have been able to sustain the force were it not for access to Australian ports. These problems were not reported inside China, but the leadership there knew the details and so did many outside China.

Aware of its shortcomings the navy is taking is slow and careful with its new aircraft carrier. After nearly two years of frequent trips to sea for training and testing, China’s first aircraft carrier (the Liaoning) has entered the shipyard for at least six months of maintenance and modifications. All this time at sea apparently produced a long list of things needing to be fixed, modified or replaced. Thus the long trip to the shipyard.

It was recently revealed that China began installing underwater passive sonar systems in its coastal waters back in 2011. This enables China to monitor submarines operating off its coasts and, presumably, in the South China Sea. South Korea did the same in 2011 when it announced that it was installing underwater submarine sensors off its coasts and this was apparently completed in 2013. The South Korean effort was in response to North Korea using a small submarine to torpedo a South Korea patrol ship in 2010. China simply wants to keep foreign warships as far away as possible, even if it means trying to force them out of international waters. This sort of thing is similar to the system of passive (they just listen) sonars the United States deployed on the sea bottom in key areas during the Cold War. SOSUS (SOund Surveillance System) consisted of several different networks and the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans.

In response to increased public pressure by the U.S. government to restrain North Korea the Chinese pointed out that North Korea has been openly disdainful of Chinese calls for restraint. North Korea has also abused and stolen from Chinese firms in North Korea and openly broken agreements with China. As discouraging as this response was, it was an open admission by China that North Korea was out of control and self-destructive to an extreme. The Chinese are not only concerned about what’s going on inside North Korea but what North Koreans are doing in China. North Korea has ordered its secret police agents allowed to operate in northeast China to be more energetic in finding and returning North Koreans who have escaped to China. The North Korean agents are supposed to collect information and let Chinese police make arrests (of illegal immigrants or North Koreans found to be involved in something illegal). This is how China justifies the hundreds of North Korea secret police working in China. But the North Korean agents have become more aggressive and China has warned the North Koreans to behave. Yet China does not want to expel the North Korean secret police because they do help control illegal activity among the ethnic Korean community (several million people, most of them Chinese citizens) in China.

For Sale To Anyone Who Can Pay

While s ome 85 percent of Syrian chemical weapons have been removed from the country , they are apparently still being used and China is suspected as the supplier. Recently the UN ha s been investigating allegations that Syria used chlorine gas against civilians. Chlorine was one of the original (World War I) chemical weapons but is also a common industrial chemical and was not counted as one of the chemical weapons Syria had to surrender for destruction this year. Worse, some of the chlorine gas containers (marked as containing chlorine gas used as a chemical weapon) used recently in Syria did not explode and had markings on them indicating they were manufactured by Chinese weapons producer Norinco. China is looking into this, but Norinco has long had a reputation of selling anything to anyone who could pay. Chlorine is a widely used industrial chemical in China.

Not all Chinese military exports are so scary. For example two of the three North Korean UAVs found in South Korea over the last five months have been traced back to a Chinese manufacturer (Taiyuan Navigation Technology). These two models were identical to the SKY-09P UAV offered for sale in China. North Korea modified the SKY-09P with a new paint job (to make it harder to spot), a muffler (to make it less detectable) and installed a different camera. The SKY-09P was used via its robotic mode, where the SKY-09P flew to pre-programmed GPS coordinates, taking digital photos over selected areas. The SKY-09P is a 12 kg (26 pound) delta wing aircraft that is launched via a catapult and lands via a parachute. Endurance is 90 minutes and cruising speed is 90 kilometers an hour. In China such UAVs are popular with businesses and farmers as well as local police.

The Young Giant

By the end of 2013 China had over 3.5 million websites hosted within its borders and thus under the authority of the Chinese Internet censors (the Golden Shield organization and its two million employees). These 3.5 million websites used over 4.6 million domain names and were operated by over 2.8 million organizations (70 percent) and individuals (30 percent). There are over 620 million Internet users in China, about 43 percent of the population. In the U.S. its 81 percent, while Japan is 79 percent, Russia is 54 percent, India is 13 percent and Hong Kong (a semi-autonomous part of China) is 73 percent. The first Chinese web page went live on the Internet in 1994.

Internet growth was slow at first in China but after the 1990s it rapidly accelerated. By 2004 there were 87 million Internet users and while that was only seven percent of the population, it was a very well off and well educated fraction of the population. Sixty percent of them were male, and 54 percent were 24 years old, or younger. Moreover, these Internet users were found throughout China, meaning that any information the government did not want distributed could now get past the censors and to the general population. The government had already begun investing heavily in software and hardware to control what Chinese Internet users could access. But these censorship techniques have not stopped stories that do the most damage. If there is an event that would embarrass the government, it got through to most Internet users, and this has increasingly caused the government to respond to the public will. Despite all the censorship, the number of web users has grown rapidly during the last decade.

April 29, 2014: Iran has cancelled a 2009 oil field development deal with the Chinese state owned oil company.

This contract would have eventually been worth $2.5 billion to the Chinese. Both sides accused the other of failure to cooperate as the main reason for the termination. China remains Iran’s biggest oil-export customer since China is willing to defy the international sanctions against Iran. That was behind the 2009 contract, which was to replace Western oil companies that had to back off because of more sanctions.

April 26, 2014: Two Chinese Coast Guard ships again moved near the Senkaku Islands. This was the second such intrusion this month. The ships entered Japanese territorial waters (within 22 kilometers from shore), something that has been a regular occurrence this year. China claims ownership of the Senkanus even through Japan has occupied them for over a century.

April 24, 2014: The U.S. declared strong support for Japan in its dispute with China over the Senkaku Islands. The U.S. has also come out strongly in support of other pro-U.S. nations in the region. In response senior Chinese military officials declared that Chinese forces can quickly assemble and win any battle with anyone. Many, but not all, Chinese military officials know better. But the politicians want a Chinese military that is strong enough to back up the increasingly aggressive territorial claims China is making on its neighbors. Without American support most of these neighbors (especially Vietnam and the Philippines) would just back off. So China is trying to become scary enough to intimidate the Americans.

April 17, 2014: China has decided to appeal a recent (March 2014) WTO (World Trade Organization) ruling that China had violated trade rules with its 2010 restrictions on rare earth exports. Back in 2010 China tried to use its near-monopoly on the production of "rare earth" metals to jack up prices. The reaction from the rest of the world was vigorous and hostile. "Rare earths" are 18 different ores that are found in tiny quantities all over the world. Because that they are expensive to mine, many mining companies don't bother. But in the last century, more and more rare earths have been found to have useful applications in metallurgy, electronics and other areas. In the last few decades, China has extracted rare earths more cheaply than anyone else, and driven nearly all foreign rare earth mining operations out of business. But because of the new Chinese threat, other countries are reviving their rare earth mining operations, even if it requires government subsidies. In 2012 many of these nations asked the WTO to examine the situation and decide if China’s rare earths policies had violated WTO rules. The WTO concluded that China was guilty but China does not accept this assessment.

April 14, 2014: In the southwest (Guizhou province) police broke a major gang-run operation that was supplying illegal weapons in several provinces. Police seized over 10,000 firearms and over 120,000 illegal knives. These illegal weapons are increasingly being used to commit crimes. Growing affluence has resulted in more people who can afford to buy these weapons, often for self-defense.

April 12, 2014: North Korea denounced a recent South Korean proposal for eventual reunification via heavy South Korean economic investment in North Korea as well as the resumption of food and other humanitarian aid. Many northern leaders understand that the southern proposal could actually work, but would put the northern leaders out of a job and, according to UN war crimes investigators, on trial for “crimes against humanity.” It also bothered the northerners that China openly supported this proposal. South Korean officials would like to discuss amnesty for the North Korean leadership but the UN war crimes bureaucracy is pretty hostile to this sort of thing.

April 11, 2014: China announced it is investing $5 billion into the Russian Far East (areas bordering China and the Pacific Ocean). China is investing in infrastructure, to make it easier for Chinese businessmen to operate in this area. One aspect of this, the rapid growth of Chinese trade in the thinly populated Far East, is that it stirs Russian fears that Chinese businesses will take over the economy out there. The Chinese have done this before, over the centuries, with other neighbors. Chinese today are well aware of that and know that once you control the economy it’s a lot easier to annex the area to China.

[Ryan Ruck]

Rising Red Tide: China’s Navy, Air Force Rapidly Expanding Its Size And Reach

June 5, 2014

Away from the Chinese military’s expanding capabilities in cyberspace and electronic warfare, Beijing is growing the size and reach of its naval fleet, advancing its air force and testing a host of new missiles, the Pentagon said Thursday.

An annual report to Congress on China’s evolving military capability concluded that the modernization was being driven in part by growing territorial disputes in the East and South China seas, as well as by Beijing’s desire to expand its presence and influence abroad.

But the main motivation remains Beijing’s concern over the possibility of hostilities in the Taiwan Strait, according to the report, which downplayed the notion that a recent thaw in relations between China and Taiwan has done anything to seriously mitigate the threat of a military conflict between the two countries.

“Despite positive public statements about cross-Strait dynamics from top leaders in China following the re-election of Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou in 2012, there have been no signs that China’s military disposition opposite Taiwan has changed significantly,” the Pentagon report said. “The [People’s Liberation Army] has continued to develop and deploy military capabilities to coerce Taiwan or to attempt an invasion, if necessary.”

The report’s release Thursday coincided with a visit to The Washington Times by Taiwanese diplomats, who said they want to renew their request to obtain some of the Pentagon’s coveted F-35 Joint Strike Fighters or, perhaps, its F-22 Raptor fighter jets.

The island country recognizes that it has an increasingly important role to play in the Obama administration’s pivot to the Asia-Pacific region. And since Taiwan is an important ally of the United States, “it is important for the U.S. to think of a way to show its substantial support for Taiwan,” said Kwei-Bo Huang, Taiwan’s secretary general of the association of foreign relations.

A Defense Department official told reporters Thursday that the Pentagon remains vigilant about tracking the Chinese military progress toward modernizing its weapons and acquiring new ones. “We continue to monitor and document the Chinese military’s capabilities, particularly in the region of Taiwan,” the official said.

In a long-standing U.S. criticism of China’s military expansion over the past two decades, the Pentagon criticized China’s lack of openness about its strategy, which it said has caused concerns in Asia.

“Absent greater transparency from China and a change in its behavior, these concerns will likely intensify as the PLA’s military modernization program progresses,” the report said.

China’s government in March announced a 12.2 percent increase in military spending to $132 billion. That followed last year’s 10.7 percent increase to $114 billion, giving China the second-highest defense budget for any nation behind the U.S., which spent $600.4 billion on its military last year.

[Ryan Ruck]

China, With an Eye to the U.S., Is Aggressively Building Up Their Military

August 31, 2014

China recently conducted its third land-based missile-intercept test. These tests, most likely designed to facilitate “hit to kill” technologies critical for China’s missile defense and anti-satellite programs, are part of a well-planned, enormous military buildup in which the Chinese have been engaged for nearly 20 years.

Here are some features of that effort:

• They have created a large and modern navy, which, by 2020, will be substantially larger than America’s. Its vessels are highly capable and armed with long-range, advanced, anti-ship missiles and air-defense missiles.
  
• They are upgrading their nuclear arsenal and are on track to more than double the number of their nuclear warheads capable of striking the U.S. homeland over the next few years.
  
• They already have the world’s largest and most lethal inventory of conventional ballistic missiles as well as large numbers of highly capable and long-range ground-, air- and sea-based cruise missiles. They will continue to expand, diversify, and improve their missile inventory, enhancing their ability to coerce or use force against the United States and its allies and partners in Asia. China now is able to threaten U.S. bases and operating areas throughout the region, including those that it previously could not reach with conventional weapons, such as Anderson Air Force Base on Guam.
  
• They have almost 2,000 capable fighter aircraft and are on track to introduce two new fifth-generation fighters, which they will likely add to their inventory between 2017 and 2019. China also appears to be developing a new long-range stealth bomber.
  
• They are significantly upgrading their intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems and improving their amphibious capabilities.
  
• According to the Defense Science Board, they already have offensive cyber capabilities that can inflict existential damage on America’s critical infrastructure.

China’s military modernization is aimed primarily at one country: the United States. The Chinese have carefully studied America’s military and the wars it has fought over the past 20 years and have tailored their buildup accordingly. China’s leaders know that almost the entire firepower of America’s surface navy is centered on its aircraft-carrier task forces. It costs $13.5 billion to build an aircraft carrier but only about $10 million to build a missile with the range, velocity, and accuracy to sink an aircraft carrier. The Chinese have created a “missile centric” military in pursuit of a highly effective asymmetric strategy designed to keep America’s surface navy from intervening in a potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait or in the East and South China Seas.

The Chinese also know that America’s armed forces depend almost completely on space satellites for targeting, intelligence, and communication. Hence the recent missile-intercept test and, more generally, China’s rapid development of anti-satellite capabilities designed to destroy or severely disrupt America’s space assets in every orbital regime. They will have that capability by 2020, if they don’t have it already.

How is America responding to all this? In the years when China’s military modernization first began to bear fruit, America’s armed forces were completely focused on counterinsurgency in the Middle East. In 2011, then–secretary of defense Bob Gates proposed a ten-year budget with modest increases designed primarily to increase the size of the navy in response to the Chinese buildup. Congress and the president responded by cutting a half trillion dollars from the Gates budget and imposing another $500 billion in reductions by sequester.

As a result, both present and future readiness are declining across the force. The Navy, which currently has no effective defense against China’s missile strategy, is shrinking. The Air Force has fewer planes and an older inventory than at any time since the inception of the service. The Army is being reduced to pre–World War II levels. All of this, and more, was recently detailed in the unanimous report of the National Defense Panel, which found that unless the defense cuts were reversed, the armed forces would in the near future be at high risk of not being able to carry out their missions.

China, of course, has watched all this carefully, drawn the obvious conclusion, and stepped up its provocations in the western Pacific.

The Chinese government, which means the leaders of the Chinese Communist party, insists that the purpose of their military buildup is defensive, but anyone who believes that is not familiar either with China’s policy in the western Pacific or the strategy it is using to execute it.

I don’t believe the Chinese intend war with the United States. What they intend is to credibly threaten war, while continuing to shift the balance of power decisively in their favor and thereby achieve their objectives by intimidation. So far they are succeeding.

[vector7]

PLA pilots vie for coveted 'golden helmet' in largest ever air drills

• Staff Reporter
• 2014-09-17
• 16:22 (GMT+8)

The pilots who win golden helmet get special logos painted on the vertical tail of their fighters. (Internet photo)

The People's Liberation Army Air Force held its largest ever air combat exercises at an unknown desert base in northwestern China earlier this month to test the skill of the country's fighter pilots, according to state broadcaster China Central Television on Sept. 16.

CCTV reported that 170 fighter pilots from 19 regiments from the nation's seven military regions took part in the exercise. One hundred fourth-generation fighters including the J-10, the J-11, the Su-27 and the Su-30MKK were mobilized for the exercises. Xu Liqiang, the deputy commander of one of the fighter regiments, told the news agency that he was engaging Li Haiming, a younger pilot in a two-on-two mock engagement.

Various abilities of the fighter pilots were tested during the two-on-two engagements, including beyond visual range combat, medium and short range combat and electronic warfare.

The pilots also learned how to evade mid-air collisions with their fighters carrying full payloads. All 170 pilots were pitted against each other to win the golden helmet which marks them as the PLA Air Force's most outstanding pilots.

Ten pilots won golden helmets during the first air combat competition back in 2011. In 2012, 11 out of 108 pilots won golden helmets. In 2013, nine of 128 pilots were awarded the honor. Three of those pilots were from the Shenyang military region, according to the official PLA Daily.

The PLA Air Force has begun to train its fighter pilots with new standards closer to its Western counterparts, especially the United States Air Force, the paper said.

References:

Xu Liqiang 許利強

Li Haiming 李海明

[Ryan Ruck]

US-China War Increasingly A 'Reality,' Chinese Army Official Says

January 29, 2017


A Chinese soldier waves farewell to Russian fleets as the Chinese-Russian joint naval drill concludes in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province, China, September 19, 2016.

China is preparing for a potential military clash with the United States, according to an article on the Chinese army's website.

"The possibility of war increases" as tensions around North Korea and the South China Sea heat up, Liu Guoshun, a member of the national defense mobilization unit of China's Central Military Commission, wrote on Jan. 20—the same day as President Donald Trump's inauguration.

"'A war within the president's term', 'war breaking out tonight' are not just slogans, but the reality," Liu said in the Chinese commentary piece.

The commentary was first reported by South China Morning Post on Friday, and comes amid concerns about a trade war between the world's two largest economies.

The White House did not immediately reply to a request for comment from CNBC.

Ian Bremmer, president and founder of global political risk consultancy, Eurasia Group, said the article from the People's Liberation Army was more a warning rather than a show of strength.

"The Chinese government is quite concerned about the potential for direct confrontation with the Trump administration," Bremmer said in an email to CNBC.

Previously, Beijing was more cautious in reacting to Trump's anti-China rhetoric, Bremmer said, but now, "Chinese officials are preparing for the worst, and they expect to retaliate decisively in response to any U.S. policies they perceive as against their interests."

In just over a week in office, President Donald Trump's administration has shifted the U.S. tone from one of caution to more aggressive pushback against China's assertive territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Trump said the Monday after his inauguration that the U.S. would prevent China from taking territory in international waters in the region.

"The U.S. is going to make sure that we protect our interests there," White House spokesman Sean Spicer said, speaking in response to a question on whether Trump agreed with comments from his Secretary of State pick Rex Tillerson. The former CEO of Exxon Mobil, that China should not be allowed access to islands it has built in the South China Sea.

China has installed weapons and built military-length air strips in the contested region. Meanwhile, Beijing-backed media have said the U.S. would need to "wage war" to stop Chinese access.

The U.S. needs China's cooperation to keep North Korea's nuclear threats in check. But challenges to the U.S.'s "One China policy" that does not officially recognize Taiwan's independence — a red-line issue for Beijing — could also add to tensions.

"China doesn't want trouble with the U.S., especially not in the run up to their own leadership transition this fall," Bremmer said. "But if it comes, they want President Trump to understand the consequences."

In addition to more militaristic talk, Beijing has also stepped up its promotion of the Chinese economic system as an alternative to what it calls the "crisis" of Western Democracy and capitalism.

"Western-style democracy has played a progressive role in history, but right now it has heavy drawbacks," Han Zhen, Communist Party secretary of the Beijing Foreign Studies University, wrote in a Chinese editorial in the People's Daily last weekend.

[Ryan Ruck]

China Says Making Air Force Drills More Realistic

May 4, 2017

China's air force is making its drills more realistic and less formulaic as it seeks to boost combat readiness, an official newspaper said on Friday, mapping out the latest step in the country's ambitious modernization program.

China has rattled nerves around the region with its plan to reform the military, the world's largest, focusing on quality over quantity and replacing outmoded equipment and tactics dating back to Soviet times.

Its air force has been a big beneficiary of the modernization, getting new jets and developing stealth technologies, and is also focusing on improving its training.

Combat exercises are becoming more intense and more difficult, ditching past practice of carrying out drills in line with pre-set plans and adding more realistic situations, the state-run China Daily said, citing the air force.

"Commanders and pilots have been given stringent, realistic combat scenarios and are told to try their best to win," the paper said.

"Now, freestyle fighting, live-fire strikes and long-range sea patrols have become regular elements in the training of the air force's fighter jet and bomber units," it said.

Integrated operations involving more than one type of aircraft and different air force units are also becoming more common, the paper said, referring to an area where China has traditionally been weak compared with more Western militaries.

"Thanks to exercises that are much more difficult than before, pilots have substantially enhanced their capabilities," air force pilot Xu Qin said.

Some elite units now communicate in English during training, the paper said.

China's military modernization comes as Beijing takes a more assertive line over territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas and especially over self-ruled Taiwan.

In recent months, China has carried out a series of drills near Taiwan, claimed by China as its own, including flying bombers past the island and sailing its aircraft carrier around Taiwan.

China has never renounced the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control. Proudly democratic Taiwan has shown no interest in wanting to be ruled by autocratic China.

[Ryan Ruck]

China’s Drone-Missile Hybrid: The Next Step in Naval Drone Warfare

Is this the next “carrier killer” in China’s arsenal?

August 3, 2017

China was dubbed an “emerging force” in drone warfare in and called a “rising drone power” by 2015. In four short years, its status has gone from “new” to “leading” on multiple fronts in the drone domain. One of those fronts is the application of (militarized) drone technology in sea operations. For over a decade, the United States was the undisputed leader in unmanned development and deployment in East Asia. From the Grey Eagles deployed in South Korea to Global Hawks flying from Japan, and more recently tests with the X-47B, the Sea Hunter USV, and a generation of UUVs under development that should enable U.S. attack submarines to discover other potential underwater enemies more quickly than in previous years.

Yet America’s unmanned dominance has been contested by China’ ambitious drive to be the leading force in drone development and distribution. In prior articles, we argued that China is increasingly becoming a potent player in the unmanned game. Recently, in The Diplomat, Steven Stashwick described how China is developing a new generation of UUVs, aimed at pinpointing the location of U.S. submarines in the depths of Pacific waters.

In another advance for China, two months ago, news broke that China is aiming to develop a sea-skimming drone, a drone-bomber, or drone “warthog” capable of tearing across the water just half a meter above the surface — well below radar coverage. In addition to its phantom profile, the advanced concept carries with it a 1,000 kilgram payload, packing enough explosive power to significantly damage an entire U.S. flattop. Will this be China’s second, aircraft killer after the Dong-Feng 21?

The drone’s speed and below-the-radar-coverage translates into a potentially deadly reduction in reaction time for whatever lies in its sights. The detection-speed metric would probably afford the target vessel less than a minute to defend itself, presenting a looming threat for even the most advanced warships. The U.S. Navy (USN) could still rely on its Naval Integrated Fire Control-Counter Air (NIFC-CA) technology, which can project existing naval sensory ranges through E-2D coordination. The Hawkeye aircraft, operating some 25,000-30,000 above a warship, can act as the task force’s eyes, possibly detecting incoming attackers from a distance of several hundred kilometers. Such coordinated defensive action can put a much-needed cushion of time between the run-up to attack and the prosecution of an assault against America’s naval giants. Yet for other nations, this “warthog” poses a new lethal treat.

With an estimated range of 900 miles, it certainly stretches China’s capabilities to project power from its shores – that’s two to three times the range of a conventional cruise missile or what are colloquially called “sea skimmers.” China’s drone-missile hybrid can be launched from a land-based military installation and dart out to sea. Using its onboard radar technology, the unit would seek out an enemy target and execute a strike much like an advanced cruise missile. However, the hybrid would carry with it a lower price tag than a conventional cruise missile and would therefore by far more expendable than its pure missile counterpart. In this, China’s new system would be far more economically viable to deploy and operate than the DF-21.

Yet most striking in this development is China turning from the development of UAVs for aerial purposes toward unmanned systems aimed at tasks in the maritime realm. With the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and Air Force (PLAAF) increasingly becoming main military actors, and the South China Sea, East China Sea, and general naval expansion as centers of military attention, China appears poised to steer its R&D regarding new (unmanned) military systems in the direction of systems that would benefit operations in the naval realm.

A second striking feature is how the development of unmanned systems is slowly moving toward the development of armed, next-generation unmanned systems. Unarmed systems could still be used in the maritime realm, and indeed China has deployed them to its new bases in the South China Sea, but their survivability in any possible conflict will be limited, or even non-existent due to a lack of defense capabilities. The development of sea-skimming drones exemplifies China’s desire to weaponize its current, and especially its next, generation of unmanned systems slated for East Asia waters and the Pacific. Such systems, moreover, would complement China’s larger A2/AD naval strategy, which aims to prevent the U.S. Navy and other allied naval forces from operating safely within the first island chain.

Furthermore, the drone-missile hybrid paves the way for near-future military applications with the basis for building on the concept of drone swarming in a unique unmanned domain. A U.S. carrier task force could be quickly overwhelmed by an aerial armada of these new deadly weapon units steaming at high speeds directly toward it. In expansive waters, the threat level posed through the application of this lethal devise is high enough, but when prosecuted in tight littoral regions such as the Taiwan Strait or waters adjacent South Korea and even Japan, evading the weapons could be tricky business.