Japan could dump treasuries to pay for rebuilding costs from the tsunami
I just got done writing this...
Japan could be the next economy to dump treasuries in light of the cost required to rebuild after the tsunami that tore through the Northern part of their country today. As bond insurer Pimco lead the way earlier this week in selling off all their bond holdings, Japan will need to find an income source to help rebuild its infrastructure, and get its economic machine going again.
According to the Treasury Department, Japan is the second biggest holder of government debt (actually third largest since the Treasury doesn't record the debt instruments held by our Federal Reserve), and they have nearly $900 Billion in dollar reserves. This gives Japan a large source of funds to begin rebuilding, but it also comes at a price.
Depending upon how many Treasuries Japan has in reserve should they choose to dump into the market, it could lead not only to bond prices dropping, but it also may trigger other nations such as China to immediately jump in and sell their holdings, causing a crash in the bond markets, and bringing serious damage to our economy.
In an article this morning from Reuters, bond prices are already dropping in the fear that Japan may sell off its holdings to pay for rebuilding the country. The benchmark 10-year note US10YT=RR was down 5/32 in price to yield 3.38 percent, up from 3.36 percent on Thursday. The yield is down from a high of 3.60 percent on March 4.
Analysts at Credit Suisse also said on Friday that they have closed their long 10-year note recommendation after reaching their target yield level.Some investors, meanwhile, feared that Japan's earthquake may pressure bonds if insurers need to sell high-quality holdings to pay for claims.Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose by around 20 basis points in the days following the earthquake in Japan's Kobe region in 1995."The last time there was a large earthquake, Japanese investors sold things to repatriate and thus the market came off a bit," David Ader, head of government bond strategy at CRT Capital in Stamford, Connecticut, said in a note.
The global market today is so intertwined that a single incident in one country can trigger economic turmoil in many others. We have seen this over the past two weeks in the Middle East over oil, and now with the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, we could see the bond markets go into chaos here in the US.
Japan has a track record of dumping their treasuries after large disasters to protect and rebuild their country, and with the tsunami that hit the mainland today, the likelihood of this happening is very good, and could bring strong influence to the economy of the US as well.
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