Syria Accord Seen as Russia Victory; Lacks Call for Assad


By Jennifer M. Freedman - Jul 1, 2012 3:00 PM MT



A United Nations-brokered peace plan for Syria is a victory for Russia because it lacks clear wording that bars Syrian President Bashar al-Assad from taking part in a transition of power, analysts in London and Washington said.



World powers on June 30 backed a plan that doesn’t directly spell out the fate of Assad, who has been battling pro-democracy rebels for 16 months in a conflict resulted in as as many as 17,000 casualties, according to non-governmental organizations. Nations including the U.S. and the U.K. watered down a draft by special envoy Kofi Annan after Russia rejected language banning Assad and members of his inner circle from taking part in a transitional government.



“The latest decision is a compromise by the West and a victory for Russia,” Lilit Gevorgyan, a London-based analyst at IHS Global Insight, said. “There has not been an explicit decision to push Assad out, something that Russia was keen on.”



International efforts to mediate a peace deal have faltered over whether Assad must leave office before a shift in power can begin. The communique from foreign ministers in Geneva -- which declares a “firm timetable” for actions without any dates or deadlines -- may draw scrutiny over whether the U.S. and allies France and the U.K. yielded too much to get a transition road map accepted by Russia and China.



The accord drew quick criticism from Syrian opposition groups yesterday, who called it ambiguous and vowed not to negotiate with Assad or members of his government, the Associated Press reported.
Bloody Hands

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told journalists on June 30 in Geneva that even without explicit wording, “Assad will still have to go. What we have done here is to strip away the fiction that he and those with blood on their hands can stay in power.”



Clinton said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio that the final version retained “strong language” and was a “significant step forward.”



“There was every reason to believe that we would never get the Russians and the Chinese on board,” she said in the interview in Geneva. During more than six hours of contentious negotiations, she said she “didn’t know that we were going to be able to get anything.”



Syrian forces killed at least 27 people in fighting yesterday as clashes with rebel forces persisted across the country, the U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said in an e-mailed statement.
Homs Shelling

Syrian forces shelled the neighborhood of al-Khaldiyeh as they attempted to seize control of the area in the city of Homs, Clashes continued in the suburbs of Damascus and Deir al-Zour, the rights group said. Al-Jazeera television reported 42 deaths in yesterday’s fighting.



“The residents of Douma are suffering from an extreme humanitarian crisis,” the U.K. rights group said. “The bombardment by regime forces is considered the most violent Douma has seen since the start of the uprising. They lack the basic necessities of existence, there is an acute shortage of bread, gas and medical equipment.”



Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the road map doesn’t require Assad’s ouster and pledged that his government would press the Syrian leader to comply with the peace plan.



The accord is “only a half-victory for Russia as the next step, the hardest step, would be ensuring that the plan works,” IHS Global’s Gevorgyan said in an e-mailed reply to questions. “For it to succeed, the unity government would need to include the moderate forces ready for dialog.”
Winning Agreement

Jeff Laurenti, a UN analyst at the Century Foundation in New York, called the agreement a “win” in that it takes a step toward ending the Syria conflict.



Still, it could be seen as a “loss for anyone seeking to annihilate the other side; for Assad, whose Russian backers have now formally committed themselves to a successor government whose leaders must be acceptable to all Syrian sides -- as he and his brother surely are not -- and for Islamists, ditto,” Laurenti said in an e-mailed response to questions.



Before the Geneva meeting, Annan had crafted a proposal saying a new government “could include members of the present government and the opposition and other groups, but would exclude from government those whose continued presence and participation would undermine the credibility of the transition and jeopardize stability and reconciliation.”



The modified text suggests “Washington has made a major concession in that Assad could stay on,” though a clause on mutual consent means the opposition would have veto power over who could be in the transitional government, Andrew Tabler, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said in an e-mailed response to questions.



“It’s unclear how Assad could be present and create the ‘neutral environment’ outlined in the agreement,” Tabler said.



To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer M. Freedman in Geneva at jfreedman@bloomberg.net