10 Trends for 2011 by Gerald Celente

[Backstop]

Celente has been pretty accurate in the past.

We'll see how this goes.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/celente/celente59.1.html

10 Trends for 2011
by Gerald Celente

After the tumultuous years of the Great Recession, a battered people may wish that 2011 will bring a return to kinder, gentler times. But that is not what we are predicting. Instead, the fruits of government and institutional action – and inaction – on many fronts will ripen in unplanned-for fashions.

Trends we have previously identified, and that have been brewing for some time, will reach maturity in 2011, impacting just about everyone in the world.

1. Wake-Up Call In 2011, the people of all nations will fully recognize how grave economic conditions have become, how ineffectual and self-serving the so-called solutions have been, and how dire the consequences will be. Having become convinced of the inability of leaders and know-it-all "arbiters of everything" to fulfill their promises, the people will do more than just question authority, they will defy authority. The seeds of revolution will be sown….

2. Crack-Up 2011 Among our Top Trends for last year was the "Crash of 2010." What happened? The stock market didn’t crash. We know. We made it clear in our Autumn Trends Journal that we were not forecasting a stock market crash – the equity markets were no longer a legitimate indicator of recovery or the real state of the economy. Yet the reliable indicators (employment numbers, the real estate market, currency pressures, sovereign debt problems) all bordered between crisis and disaster. In 2011, with the arsenal of schemes to prop them up depleted, we predict "Crack-Up 2011": teetering economies will collapse, currency wars will ensue, trade barriers will be erected, economic unions will splinter, and the onset of the "Greatest Depression" will be recognized by everyone….

3. Screw the People As times get even tougher and people get even poorer, the "authorities" will intensify their efforts to extract the funds needed to meet fiscal obligations. While there will be variations on the theme, the governments’ song will be the same: cut what you give, raise what you take.

4. Crime Waves No job + no money + compounding debt = high stress, strained relations, short fuses. In 2011, with the fuse lit, it will be prime time for Crime Time. When people lose everything and they have nothing left to lose, they lose it. Hardship-driven crimes will be committed across the socioeconomic spectrum by legions of the on-the-edge desperate who will do whatever they must to keep a roof over their heads and put food on the table….

5. Crackdown on Liberty As crime rates rise, so will the voices demanding a crackdown. A national crusade to "Get Tough on Crime" will be waged against the citizenry. And just as in the "War on Terror," where "suspected terrorists" are killed before proven guilty or jailed without trial, in the "War on Crime" everyone is a suspect until proven innocent….

6. Alternative Energy In laboratories and workshops unnoticed by mainstream analysts, scientific visionaries and entrepreneurs are forging a new physics incorporating principles once thought impossible, working to create devices that liberate more energy than they consume. What are they, and how long will it be before they can be brought to market? Shrewd investors will ignore the "can’t be done" skepticism, and examine the newly emerging energy trend opportunities that will come of age in 2011….

7. Journalism 2.0 Though the trend has been in the making since the dawn of the Internet Revolution, 2011 will mark the year that new methods of news and information distribution will render the 20th century model obsolete. With its unparalleled reach across borders and language barriers, "Journalism 2.0" has the potential to influence and educate citizens in a way that governments and corporate media moguls would never permit. Of the hundreds of trends we have forecast over three decades, few have the possibility of such far-reaching effects….

8. Cyberwars Just a decade ago, when the digital age was blooming and hackers were looked upon as annoying geeks, we forecast that the intrinsic fragility of the Internet and the vulnerability of the data it carried made it ripe for cyber-crime and cyber-warfare to flourish. In 2010, every major government acknowledged that Cyberwar was a clear and present danger and, in fact, had already begun. The demonstrable effects of Cyberwar and its companion, Cybercrime, are already significant – and will come of age in 2011. Equally disruptive will be the harsh measures taken by global governments to control free access to the web, identify its users, and literally shut down computers that it considers a threat to national security….

9. Youth of the World Unite University degrees in hand yet out of work, in debt and with no prospects on the horizon, feeling betrayed and angry, forced to live back at home, young adults and 20-somethings are mad as hell, and they’re not going to take it anymore. Filled with vigor, rife with passion, but not mature enough to control their impulses, the confrontations they engage in will often escalate disproportionately. Government efforts to exert control and return the youth to quiet complacency will be ham-fisted and ineffectual. The Revolution will be televised … blogged, YouTubed, Twittered and….

10. End of The World! The closer we get to 2012, the louder the calls will be that the "End is Near!" There have always been sects, at any time in history, that saw signs and portents proving the end of the world was imminent. But 2012 seems to hold a special meaning across a wide segment of "End-time" believers. Among the Armageddonites, the actual end of the world and annihilation of the Earth in 2012 is a matter of certainty. Even the rational and informed that carefully follow the news of never-ending global crises, may sometimes feel the world is in a perilous state. Both streams of thought are leading many to reevaluate their chances for personal survival, be it in heaven or on earth….
December 18, 2010

[American Patriot]

1. Wake-Up Call In 2011, the people of all nations will fully recognize how grave economic conditions have become, how ineffectual and self-serving the so-called solutions have been, and how dire the consequences will be. Having become convinced of the inability of leaders and know-it-all "arbiters of everything" to fulfill their promises, the people will do more than just question authority, they will defy authority. The seeds of revolution will be sown….

This is going on this minute. I suspect there will a lot more defiance in the near term too.

2. Crack-Up 2011 Among our Top Trends for last year was the "Crash of 2010." What happened? The stock market didn’t crash. We know. We made it clear in our Autumn Trends Journal that we were not forecasting a stock market crash – the equity markets were no longer a legitimate indicator of recovery or the real state of the economy. Yet the reliable indicators (employment numbers, the real estate market, currency pressures, sovereign debt problems) all bordered between crisis and disaster. In 2011, with the arsenal of schemes to prop them up depleted, we predict "Crack-Up 2011": teetering economies will collapse, currency wars will ensue, trade barriers will be erected, economic unions will splinter, and the onset of the "Greatest Depression" will be recognized by everyone….

I'm not sure this is going to happen, except by a self-fulfilling prophecy. Continue to preach it, and it will happen.

3. Screw the People As times get even tougher and people get even poorer, the "authorities" will intensify their efforts to extract the funds needed to meet fiscal obligations. While there will be variations on the theme, the governments’ song will be the same: cut what you give, raise what you take.

Gas prices going up - not due to the economy, due to stupid crap the American Government has done and is doing, preventing oil drilling, etc.

4. Crime Waves No job + no money + compounding debt = high stress, strained relations, short fuses. In 2011, with the fuse lit, it will be prime time for Crime Time. When people lose everything and they have nothing left to lose, they lose it. Hardship-driven crimes will be committed across the socioeconomic spectrum by legions of the on-the-edge desperate who will do whatever they must to keep a roof over their heads and put food on the table….

Happening in my own neighborhood NOW. Last night there were two stabbings nearby, and some more armed robbery. Used to be unheard of where I live. In the past several months, crime has increased DRASTICALLY, and we're hearing every DAY of armed robbery both on the street and at stores.

5. Crackdown on Liberty As crime rates rise, so will the voices demanding a crackdown. A national crusade to "Get Tough on Crime" will be waged against the citizenry. And just as in the "War on Terror," where "suspected terrorists" are killed before proven guilty or jailed without trial, in the "War on Crime" everyone is a suspect until proven innocent….

Won't happen except locally in areas where crime is running rampant and then ONLY if there are cops that care. Then they will get out of hand.

6. Alternative Energy In laboratories and workshops unnoticed by mainstream analysts, scientific visionaries and entrepreneurs are forging a new physics incorporating principles once thought impossible, working to create devices that liberate more energy than they consume. What are they, and how long will it be before they can be brought to market? Shrewd investors will ignore the "can’t be done" skepticism, and examine the newly emerging energy trend opportunities that will come of age in 2011….

Nawwwwww... won't happen at all.

7. Journalism 2.0 Though the trend has been in the making since the dawn of the Internet Revolution, 2011 will mark the year that new methods of news and information distribution will render the 20th century model obsolete. With its unparalleled reach across borders and language barriers, "Journalism 2.0" has the potential to influence and educate citizens in a way that governments and corporate media moguls would never permit. Of the hundreds of trends we have forecast over three decades, few have the possibility of such far-reaching effects….

Going on now. It's call "Internet" and that's why some people would have it shut down.

8. Cyberwars Just a decade ago, when the digital age was blooming and hackers were looked upon as annoying geeks, we forecast that the intrinsic fragility of the Internet and the vulnerability of the data it carried made it ripe for cyber-crime and cyber-warfare to flourish. In 2010, every major government acknowledged that Cyberwar was a clear and present danger and, in fact, had already begun. The demonstrable effects of Cyberwar and its companion, Cybercrime, are already significant – and will come of age in 2011. Equally disruptive will be the harsh measures taken by global governments to control free access to the web, identify its users, and literally shut down computers that it considers a threat to national security….

I think it's already "come of age". It hasn't become a problem yet... and won't this year.

9. Youth of the World Unite University degrees in hand yet out of work, in debt and with no prospects on the horizon, feeling betrayed and angry, forced to live back at home, young adults and 20-somethings are mad as hell, and they’re not going to take it anymore. Filled with vigor, rife with passion, but not mature enough to control their impulses, the confrontations they engage in will often escalate disproportionately. Government efforts to exert control and return the youth to quiet complacency will be ham-fisted and ineffectual. The Revolution will be televised … blogged, YouTubed, Twittered and….

England riots a few weeks ago. Oh wait, that was over free money to go to skool. NM

10. End of The World! The closer we get to 2012, the louder the calls will be that the "End is Near!" There have always been sects, at any time in history, that saw signs and portents proving the end of the world was imminent. But 2012 seems to hold a special meaning across a wide segment of "End-time" believers. Among the Armageddonites, the actual end of the world and annihilation of the Earth in 2012 is a matter of certainty. Even the rational and informed that carefully follow the news of never-ending global crises, may sometimes feel the world is in a perilous state. Both streams of thought are leading many to reevaluate their chances for personal survival, be it in heaven or on earth….

December 18, 2010

The world isn't going to end, except by - again - self-fulfilling prophecy. People getting stupider and stupider as we get closer to December 2012.

[Backstop]

2. Crack-Up 2011 Among our Top Trends for last year was the "Crash of 2010." What happened? The stock market didn’t crash. We know. We made it clear in our Autumn Trends Journal that we were not forecasting a stock market crash – the equity markets were no longer a legitimate indicator of recovery or the real state of the economy. Yet the reliable indicators (employment numbers, the real estate market, currency pressures, sovereign debt problems) all bordered between crisis and disaster. In 2011, with the arsenal of schemes to prop them up depleted, we predict "Crack-Up 2011": teetering economies will collapse, currency wars will ensue, trade barriers will be erected, economic unions will splinter, and the onset of the "Greatest Depression" will be recognized by everyone….

I'm not sure this is going to happen, except by a self-fulfilling prophecy. Continue to preach it, and it will happen.

I don't agree with you here that this - or parts of this - won't happen.

That's not my question for you though.

I don't understand why you say this couldn't happen except by a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Are you saying it won't happen unless we purposely make it happen?

As in "on purpose?"

[Malsua]

I don't agree with you here that this - or parts of this - won't happen.

That's not my question for you though.

I don't understand why you say this couldn't happen except by a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Are you saying it won't happen unless we purposely make it happen?

As in "on purpose?"

Not to put words in Rick's mouth, but it seemed like he was saying that if we keep predicting the end and keep pushing the meme, enough people will take it seriously enough that an end of some kind will indeed occur. It doesn't take "purpose" on the account of many, just enough to tip over the apple cart.

[Backstop]

That's kinda what I was thinking Mal, but wanted to be sure.

We used to call that Pyging (pigging) someone.

Perfect def from Wiki:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pygmalion_effect

The Pygmalion effect, or Rosenthal effect, refers to the phenomenon in which the greater the expectation placed upon people, often children or students and employees, the better they perform. The effect is named after Pygmalion, a Cypriot sculptor in a narrative by Ovid in Greek mythology, who fell in love with a female statue he had carved out of ivory.

The Pygmalion effect is a form of self-fulfilling prophecy, and, in this respect, people with poor expectations internalize their negative label, and those with positive labels succeed accordingly. Within sociology, the effect is often cited with regards to education and social class.

IE: keep telling them they'll succeed, and chances are good they will.

Keep telling them they'll fail, and chances are good they will.

All that being said, I don't believe you could Pyg folks into the referenced scenario.

[American Patriot]

Hi guys.

Mal you're not putting words in my mouth precisely... but that's very close.

Look, the market - such as it is - and I took business as my degree but hated most of it anyway - but I digress (it's the mango rum, sorry, and I'm beat tonight) but let me see if I can explain..

The Market, such as it is is run by people. People do things to make the market work. They buy, they sell.

We sit on our asses and let the fucking media tell us "Just how bad the housing market is, anyway..."

And it crashes. No one wants to buy a house. No one wants to sell. No BANK wants to LEND because the media tells them HOW BAD IT IS.

Everyone is saying "Buy GOLD, the government prints too much money" and by God, people believe it and buy gold. And the money has no worth because no one BELIEVES IT HAS WORTH.

If I tell you I have 100 lbs of beans in my house, stored in the basement and right now, every bean is worth a penny - you might believe that. I can sell a pound of beans for ever how many pennies it takes to make up a pound of beans.

Let's go with that for a minute.

Then suddenly, there's a horrible ice storm over Bean Land (the place where they grow all the beans)_ and the bean crop is shit now. No beans.

Well, Rick and twelve other people (who each have 100 lbs of beans in their basements) now corner the MARKET on beans.

I say "I'm going to sell my beans for a dollar each". While Mal says "Hell, I'm going to sell my beans for two dollars for each bean"... we've set the market price in our respective regions.

Backstop wants to buy beans, but he ain't got no dollars, all he's got is gold. So I say - arbitrarily - "I'll sell you a pound of beans for a pound of gold".

How much is your gold suddenly worth?

Ok - now, you have a picture of what the market is doing in real life.

But, suddenly, some media guys on TV and says "Beans arent worth ANYTHING!!! If you have gold, hold on to it, because beans a worthless. I'm telling you, you need to BUY RICE!"

Ryan has two hundred pounds of rice and you (like most of the Sheep believe the media hype) so you take your gold to Ryan and he gets all the gold so you can get all the rice.... so you can eat.

Now, your gold is worth a few grains of rice, my beans aren't worth shit, and Mal is pissed cuz he got cut completely out of the deal so he robs Ryan, shoots me and takes my beans, and kills you for the gold you have left.

THAT is what the world is coming too. Hell in a handbasket because the MEDIA tells everyone "it's BAD out there".

Seriously.

If we sit and keep saying "It's going to crash" it WILL because enough people believe this (because we're being told it's going to happen over and over" and ENOUGH of the BELIEVERS stop SELLING and BUYING anything.

Trading isn't occuring because we're continually being told "to buy gold", "hold your savings" and the government wants to tax the shit out of you (or your mileage) and you don't want to INVEST in anything for fear of losing what you have.

I've said it before here (on Financial I think) tyhat we need to TALK UP THE ECONOMY, not to TALK IT DOWN.

Does that make sense?

[American Patriot]

I guess you got what it means though. The "Pygmalion effect" is actually a very good reference to telling people enough that they will fail and they will believe it.

Seriously. You don't tell your little league baseball team what kind of twits they are. You tell them what they are doing right, and how to correct what they are doing wrong.

You don't tell you students that they are daft lumps on a log (even if they are) - you tell them what they are good at, and you tell them what they are doing WRONG and HOW TO CORRECT it.

You don't tell the Market that it is a failure - because there are too many people involved that BELIEVE every fucking conspiracy theory out there.

Same goes for the "World is going to end in 2012".

I don't think ANYONE on this site believes that the world is going to cease on 21 December 2012, Mayan Calendar or NOT.

Do you?

And if you do, perhaps you need to honestly - seriously, HONESTLY rethink your thinking.

But if enough people try to convince us the world is going to end, the HYPE and HYSTERIA is going to become so great that it will indeed override common sense.


I'm going to advertise on Craigs List that anyone that wants to give up their worldly possessions can give to me... lol

[Backstop]

I understand what you posted up there, but you left out the real world aspects that are affecting our economy.

Mortage defaults, foreclosures, China dumping our debt, etc - which is what I was refering to, and thought you were also.

I don't believe those things can be Pyged - which is what I thought you were refering to.

End of the world in Dec 2012?

Not gonna happen.

And I don't think Celente believes it either.

[Ryan Ruck]

3. Screw the People As times get even tougher and people get even poorer, the "authorities" will intensify their efforts to extract the funds needed to meet fiscal obligations. While there will be variations on the theme, the governments’ song will be the same: cut what you give, raise what you take.

You know, I've seen a variation of this...

I drive about 45-55k miles a year for work (and have done so for the last 6, going on 7 years). As such I see a lot of police speed traps.

Up until the beginning of this year it used to be that speed traps, while not uncommon, were much less common at the beginning of the month than the end of the month. The clear reason being those officers who were lagging in their "performance goals" needed to make up what they lacked before the month was over.

Fast forward to this year where I am now seeing many more speed traps set up at all times of the month. This isn't limited to just Ohio Highway Patrol but also includes the Sheriffs departments of a number of counties and local police forces. In fact, I have been pulled over (none for speeding) more this year (twice - once for "weaving in my lane", and once for a burned out plate light which wasn't) than I have ever since I first started driving (only once prior for having Christmas lights on my work van , excluding the one car accident I was in). So far I still only have one ticket (from that accident) on my record.

Fortunately I've got two things going for me. First thing is that since I've been driving nearly the same service area the last 6-7 years, I know where all the speed trap setup spots are. Second is that I've got an Escort 9500ix to combat them!

[Backstop]

This will make you feel better, Ryan.

Yes, they've done this before.

But I believe it's incredibly risky.

And just plain wrong.

http://www.federaltimes.com/article/20110405/BENEFITS02/104050306/
Treasury may borrow federal retirement funds in debt emergency

By SEAN REILLY | Last Updated: April 5, 2011

The government could temporarily tap tens of billions of dollars from two federal employee retirement programs if Congress fails to raise the federal debt ceiling next month, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner told lawmakers.

The government expects to hit a $14.3 trillion debt ceiling on May 16 or before, Geithner said in a Monday letter.

Geither implored Congress to extend the debt ceiling by that deadline and said that if Congress does not, Treasury will be forced to borrow money from the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund, and the Thrift Savings Plan's Government Securities Investment Fund, or G Fund, both of which are invested in U.S. Treasury securities. Those two moves could free up $142 billion through early July.

The government has taken similar steps before with no effect upon federal retirees. If the debt ceiling is extended by Congress within a couple months of the deadline, retirees and TSP participants should have nothing to worry about, several experts said. By law, both funds have to be repaid with interest, said Susan Irving, director for federal budget analysis at the Government Accountability Office.

"I would anticipate no impact," echoed Dan Adcock, legislative director for the National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association.

Geithner said borrowing money from the federal retirement programs and other "extraordinary measures" available to the government would stave off the need to raise the debt ceiling until around July 8. Once those measures are exhausted, the government "will be limited in its ability to make payments across the government," Geithner said.

In that case, retirees' pensions could be affected. Adcock said that, if that were to happen, any impact on retirement payouts would be "the least of their problems because we'll face a worldwide economic collapse.

"I think people would understand what's at stake and cooler heads would prevail," Adcock added.

[Ryan Ruck]

Wow... Notice, still not going anywhere near cutting any sort of welfare bennies because they know cities would burn if they did. They've painted themselves into a very small corner and the end game won't be pretty.

[Backstop]

Yep.

And of course no mention of cutting foreign aid.

One of my pet peeves.

[American Patriot]

I understand what you posted up there, but you left out the real world aspects that are affecting our economy.

Mortage defaults, foreclosures, China dumping our debt, etc - which is what I was refering to, and thought you were also.

I don't believe those things can be Pyged - which is what I thought you were refering to.

End of the world in Dec 2012?

Not gonna happen.

And I don't think Celente believes it either.

The "Real World" stuff is certainly there and I'm not actually discounting it. What I am saying though is that while mortgages were defaulted on, that's been going on since humans figured out how to use credit to their advantage - cheating anyway they can.

In other words, the defaults would have gone on whether or not the economy was having trouble. People are people. You can write this in stone, 10% of any group of people will do something bad. 10% of any loans will default. 10% of the projected income can be EASILY saved. If you take a group of people and ask how many have blue eyes (or green, or brown) you will find something like 10% of them meet your parameters.

Why? I don't know, but it's a rule of thumb I use on a lot of things - and you know what? It WORKS (Yes, I realize there are more people with brown eyes, or blue than green, etc, but for the purposes of my explanation, just go with this for a few minutes).

What I am saying is simple. 10% of the people in America would have DEFAULTED ANYWAY.

And because the media HYPED It SO MUCH banks got scared, they stopped lending and the Legislature got involved in it (and they screamed and pissed and moaned more).

In other words, certainly real world things happened, but it was made to sound WORSE and therefore, people got scared.

That's the self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Ryan Ruck]

Yep.

And of course no mention of cutting foreign aid.

One of my pet peeves.

You know what your posted article above really reminds me of? It dawned on me after I had a bit to think about it...

It reminds me of a junkie saying he's going to pawn his grandmother's heirloom silverware to "pay his bills" and not to worry that he'll get the silverware back when he gets the money ol' Drunk Joe owes him.

Yeah, we all know what the outcome of that scenario would be.

[Backstop]

The "Real World" stuff is certainly there and I'm not actually discounting it. What I am saying though is that while mortgages were defaulted on, that's been going on since humans figured out how to use credit to their advantage - cheating anyway they can.

In other words, the defaults would have gone on whether or not the economy was having trouble. People are people. You can write this in stone, 10% of any group of people will do something bad. 10% of any loans will default. 10% of the projected income can be EASILY saved. If you take a group of people and ask how many have blue eyes (or green, or brown) you will find something like 10% of them meet your parameters.

Why? I don't know, but it's a rule of thumb I use on a lot of things - and you know what? It WORKS (Yes, I realize there are more people with brown eyes, or blue than green, etc, but for the purposes of my explanation, just go with this for a few minutes).

What I am saying is simple. 10% of the people in America would have DEFAULTED ANYWAY.

And because the media HYPED It SO MUCH banks got scared, they stopped lending and the Legislature got involved in it (and they screamed and pissed and moaned more).

In other words, certainly real world things happened, but it was made to sound WORSE and therefore, people got scared.

That's the self-fulfilling prophecy.

Sorry but I disagree with your analysis here.

This entire financial mess we're in here isn't a result of a self-fulfilling prophecy (SSP) or folks being Pyged.

Fannie and Freddie loaned money to folks who couldn't - or barely could -afford the loans, spurred by the Liberal/Democratic feel-good agenda of "Everyone Deserves a House."

The loans were risky, but the banks bet (IMO) they could resell the houses once folks defaulted - and make even more money.

Then the bubble hit, unemp skyrocketed, fuel prices jumped, China tightened the screws on loans, etc. and the banks had more homes on their books than they knew what to do with. Hell, they even cooked the books, falsified documents, etc. in an attempt to soften the blow.

Numerous banks went under. This in no way was a SSP or Pyg.

The government has borrowed more money than can ever be repaid in their misguided attempt to prevent a collapse.

The numbers of folks defaulting, in foreclosure, behind on payments now, etc. hasn't been seen in years.

We're starting to drift a bit in the argument - you're talking about a certain portion of the population (10%) will always do wrong, etc.

I'm not sure about your number, but I do agree with the premise.

What I don't agree with - and back to the original argument - is that this financial mess is a result of a SSP or folks being Pyged.

I mentioned some of my reasons above.

About the only way those could be true is if you constantly told a guy he couldn't make his house payments, he would default, he would go into bankruptcy, etc. And he was fucking stupid enough to do it. I suppose there are a few folks out there like that.

Or as in your example, the media kept telling folks how bad the economy was.

The media didn't have to; folks see it everday in their bank statements, unemployment lines, etc.

In either example, I see very, very little, if any, results being produced by those actions as related to mortgage defaults, foreclosures, etc.

IMO, what I have seen happen (news reports) is folks figuring out they can stay in their homes and not make mortgage payments - which they couldn't afford anyway due to job loss, overextending their credit, etc.

Edit:

[Backstop]

You know what your posted article above really reminds me of? It dawned on me after I had a bit to think about it...

It reminds me of a junkie saying he's going to pawn his grandmother's heirloom silverware to "pay his bills" and not to worry that he'll get the silverware back when he gets the money ol' Drunk Joe owes him.

Yeah, we all know what the outcome of that scenario would be.

Great example, and we're seeing the outcome RFN.

[American Patriot]

Sorry but I disagree with your analysis here.

This entire financial mess we're in here isn't a result of a self-fulfilling prophecy (SSP) or folks being Pyged.

Fannie and Freddie loaned money to folks who couldn't - or barely could -afford the loans, spurred by the Liberal/Democratic feel-good agenda of "Everyone Deserves a House."

The loans were risky, but the banks bet (IMO) they could resell the houses once folks defaulted - and make even more money.

Then the bubble hit, unemp skyrocketed, fuel prices jumped, China tightened the screws on loans, etc. and the banks had more homes on their books than they knew what to do with. Hell, they even cooked the books, falsified documents, etc. in an attempt to soften the blow.

Numerous banks went under. This in no way was a SSP or Pyg.

The government has borrowed more money than can ever be repaid in their misguided attempt to prevent a collapse.

The numbers of folks defaulting, in foreclosure, behind on payments now, etc. hasn't been seen in years.

We're starting to drift a bit in the argument - you're talking about a certain portion of the population (10%) will always do wrong, etc.

I'm not sure about your number, but I do agree with the premise.

What I don't agree with - and back to the original argument - is that this financial mess is a result of a SSP or folks being Pyged.

I mentioned some of my reasons above.

About the only way those could be true is if you constantly told a guy he couldn't make his house payments, he would default, he would go into bankruptcy, etc. And he was fucking stupid enough to do it. I suppose there are a few folks out there like that.

Or as in your example, the media kept telling folks how bad the economy was.

The media didn't have to; folks see it everday in their bank statements, unemployment lines, etc.

In either example, I see very, very little, if any, results being produced by those actions as related to mortgage defaults, foreclosures, etc.

IMO, what I have seen happen (news reports) is folks figuring out they can stay in their homes and not make mortgage payments - which they couldn't afford anyway due to job loss, overextending their credit, etc.

Edit:

Well... I'm in no way an expert on the economy.

But I can tell you this. If you talk the economy UP it will get better. If you talk it down, it will get worse.

[Backstop]

I think the core issue here Rick, is that you and I disagree on what a self-fulfilling prophecy and/or being Pyged is.

[American Patriot]

No, I don't think we're disagreeing at all. Not on those two things.

Here's the definitions:

A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true, by the very terms of the prophecy itself, due to positive feedback between belief and behavior.

The Pygmalion effect, or Rosenthal effect, refers to the phenomenon in which the greater the expectation placed upon people, often children or students and employees, the better they perform. The effect is named after Pygmalion, a Cypriot sculptor in a narrative by Ovid in Greek mythology, who fell in love with a female statue he had carved out of ivory.

Now - I believe we BOTH agree on these two items. Completely. Right?

My interpretation of the market structure is different from yours, and I suspect where the disagreement lies is on that aspect only.

That is, I say that if the market it talked up, it will get better. You say No, that's not the case at all. Market factors are market factors.

One thing out of my thirty years of college I learned pretty clearly is that the Market isn't completely "the invisible hand", that the media plays a major role in the market. 9-11 is a very clear picture of this.

When they hit the World Trade Center, they were trying to destroy America's economy. They nearly did because people didn't go to work on Wall Street, but to offset it, we CLOSED the Markets. There was little or no trading going on for almost two weeks. The market is artificial in that respect because people touch it.

If all of us (and I mean 300 million Americans) STOP going to Walmart, it will shut down.

Borders just closed - and why? Because people aren't buying BOOKS. They are buying kindles and sony e-readers and purchasing their books in digital format.

While this is bad for hard books, it's not bad for publishers (who are still selling books), and companies like Amazon, Sony Reader and so forth.

But I can't trade you a book I bought a few days ago right now. So it's bad for you and me in that respect.

But, books are cheaper, they don't weigh anything and eventually we'll be able to trade even digital books....

Borders wouldn't have gone under had people continued to purchase books.

My belief is the stock market won't continue to drop if traders trade. It will ultimately go UP in value if we talk it up, people are HAPPY and TRADING.

That's how the idea works for me.

So - I think we should talk up the market. We should trade stocks and we should help the market climb IN SPITE of all the bad things people say.

[Backstop]

Ahhh..OK.

Now that you've explained that, I'll say as I understand it now: we differ in our opinions in how much our economy is a self-fulfilling prophecy, and how much effect Pyging can have on it.

Consider this:

Last year, I broke my ankle playing hockey.

No matter how much my coach tried to convince me I could still skate 5 lines in under a minute, no matter how much he told me I couldn't fail - the simple reality of the matter was that I could not skate. Hell, I couldn't even walk.

He tried his best to Pyg me, but I physically couldn't do it.

Our economy - as related to self-fulling prophecy and Pyging - is the same as my ankle.

We can talk folks up all we want, and it certainly will make them feel better.

But if they don't have a job, are using their CCs to buy food, they can't make their mortgage payments - the reality is the money just isn't there for them to do what we told them to do.

But don't get me wrong.

It's always a good thing to motivate folks, and I'm sure it may have some effect on those with the ability to complete the task.

But in this case, words can't fix our broken economy.