IMF: China will surpass US to top economy worldwide in 2016

[American Patriot]

IMF: China will surpass US to top economy worldwide in 2016


The next American president will be the last to preside over the world's largest economy, as the International Monetary Fund predicts China will surpass the US in 2016.


America's dominance as the world's largest economy is coming to an end sooner than had originally been projected. According to the International Monetary Fund, the United States will be eclipsed by China in 2016, Marketwatch reported on Monday. The prediction comes amid growing concern over American national debt and a US dollar that appears to be heading into considerable decline. "The greenback is approaching pre-financial crisis lows and threatening to smash through its all-time low when measured against the world's predominant national currencies," Jeff Cox reported on CNBC last week. "A combination of factors accounts for the weakness, with the Federal Reserve's easy-money policies, huge national debts and deficits and the consequential possibility of a debt downgrade because of the financial mess in Washington leading the way." Earlier in April, the IMF had warned that the US needed to derive and implement a "credible strategy" for solving its national debt challenges, as was reported in Digital Journal. However, China's massive population, ranked first in the world, is propelling the nation's economy forward on the weight of its improving populace. In comparison, the US total population is roughly a quarter the size of China's. "Most people aren’t prepared for this. They aren’t even aware it’s that close. Listen to experts of various stripes, and they will tell you this moment is decades away. The most bearish will put the figure in the mid-2020s," Brett Arrends reported in Marketwatch. "But they’re miscounting. They’re only comparing the gross domestic products of the two countries using current exchange rates." The blow to America's collective ego is likely to be considerable, as the American economy was three times greater than that of China's just a decade ago.

Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/articl...#ixzz1KYge9IkN

[Ryan Ruck]

Herman Cain on FNC talking about this and his 2012 platform right now.

[American Patriot]

I just joined his email group. LOL

[American Patriot]

If he runs, I'll vote for him.

[Toad]

Just look at how much reserve China has.... insane.


http://www.economist.com/node/18560525

China's foreign reserves

Who wants to be a triple trillionaire?

Window-shopping with China’s central bank

Apr 14th 2011 | HONG KONG | from the print edition

BY THE end of last year, China's foreign-exchange reserves amounted to $2.85 trillion. Although China ran a rare trade deficit in the first quarter of this year on April 14th the country's central bank released new figures showing that its reserves at the end of March had soared above $3 trillion.

China’s central bank has a lot of money but not a lot of imagination. It keeps a big chunk of its reserves in boring American government securities. That means it can count on getting its dollars back. But it frets about how much those dollars will be worth should America succumb to inflation or depreciation.

So what else could China do with the money? Instead of the dollar, China might fancy the euro. China could buy all of the outstanding sovereign debt of Spain, Ireland, Portugal and Greece, solving the euro area’s debt crisis in a trice. And it would still have almost half of its reserves left over.



It might, alternatively, choose to abandon debt altogether and buy equity. China could gobble up Apple, Microsoft, IBM and Google for less than $1 trillion. It could also follow the lead of those sheikhs and oligarchs who like to buy English football clubs. According to Forbes magazine, the 50 most valuable sports franchises around the world were worth only $50.4 billion last year, less than 2% of China’s reserves.

Another favoured sink for the world’s riches is property. Perhaps China should buy some exclusive Manhattan addresses. Hell, why not buy all of Manhattan? The island’s taxable real estate is worth only $287 billion, according to the New York City government. The properties of Washington, DC, are valued at a piffling $232 billion. China is accustomed to being Washington’s banker. Why not become its landlord instead?

China could also allay its fears about energy, food and military security. Three trillion dollars would buy about 88% of this year’s global oil supply. It would take only $1.87 trillion (at 2009 prices) to buy all of the farmland (and farm buildings) in the continental United States. And China could theoretically buy America’s entire Department of Defence, which has assets worth only $1.9 trillion, according to its 2010 balance-sheet. Much of that figure is land, buildings and investments; the guns, tanks and other military gear are valued at only $413.7 billion.

These frivolous calculations illustrate the vast scale of China’s reserves but also the great difficulty it faces in diversifying them. Any purchase big enough to warrant China’s attention will also move the market against it. China can buy almost anything for a price—but almost nothing for today’s price.

[vector7]

Soros: China should lead ‘new world order’

President Obama will urge China to join US in ‘world leadership’

George Soros Touts China as Leader of New World Order

Obama: "We Welcome China's Rise"

George Soros: The United States Must Stop Resisting The Orderly Decline Of The Dollar, The Coming Global Currency And The New World Order

HOW CHINA HAS BECOME THE WORLDS NEW SUPERPOWER!

[Ryan Ruck]

I just joined his email group. LOL

Hadn't gone to his site yet and didn't know he had one.

I just went there and did too!

[vector7]

IMF Says Next U.S. President Will Be The Last

Politics / US Politics Apr 26, 2011 - 03:41 AM By: Submissions

John Rolls Submits: The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.

Brett Arends, MarketWatch For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the “Age of America” will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China. And it’s a lot closer than you may think.

According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China’s economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 — just five years from now.

Put that in your calendar.

It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years.

And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world’s hegemonic power.

According to the IMF forecast, which was quietly posted on the Fund’s website just two weeks ago, whoever is elected U.S. president next year — Obama? Mitt Romney? Donald Trump? — will be the last to preside over the world’s largest economy.

Most people aren’t prepared for this. They aren’t even aware it’s that close. Listen to experts of various stripes, and they will tell you this moment is decades away. The most bearish will put the figure in the mid-2020s.

China’s economy will be the world’s largest within five years or so.



But they’re miscounting. They’re only comparing the gross domestic products of the two countries using current exchange rates.

That’s a largely meaningless comparison in real terms. Exchange rates change quickly. And China’s exchange rates are phony. China artificially undervalues its currency, the renminbi, through massive intervention in the markets.

The comparison that really matters
In addition to comparing the two countries based on exchange rates, the IMF analysis also looked to the true, real-terms picture of the economies using “purchasing power parities.” That compares what people earn and spend in real terms in their domestic economies.

Under PPP, the Chinese economy will expand from $11.2 trillion this year to $19 trillion in 2016. Meanwhile the size of the U.S. economy will rise from $15.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion. That would take America’s share of the world output down to 17.7%, the lowest in modern times. China’s would reach 18%, and rising.

Just 10 years ago, the U.S. economy was three times the size of China’s.

Naturally, all forecasts are fallible. Time and chance happen to them all. The actual date when China surpasses the U.S. might come even earlier than the IMF predicts, or somewhat later. If the great Chinese juggernaut blows a tire, as a growing number fear it might, it could even delay things by several years. But the outcome is scarcely in doubt.

This is more than a statistical story. It is the end of the Age of America. As a bond strategist in Europe told me two weeks ago, “We are witnessing the end of America’s economic hegemony.”

We have lived in a world dominated by the U.S. for so long that there is no longer anyone alive who remembers anything else. America overtook Great Britain as the world’s leading economic power in the 1890s and never looked back.

And both those countries live under very similar rules of constitutional government, respect for civil liberties and the rights of property. China has none of those. The Age of China will feel very different.