North Korea Test-Fires Two Missiles

[American Patriot]

[American Patriot]

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgu...GL:en%26sa%3DG

[American Patriot]

Cloudy sky casts shroud around North Korea missile plan
Tue Jun 20, 2006 6:28am ET8

By Jon Herskovitz

SEOUL (Reuters) - Clouds and storms closed in on Tuesday on a site where North Korea may be preparing to test a long-range missile, potentially delaying a flight regional powers have warned the reclusive state not to launch.

U.S. officials say evidence such as satellite pictures suggests Pyongyang may have finished fuelling a Taepodong-2 missile, which some experts said could reach as far as Alaska.

But some U.S. officials said suggestions of an imminent missile launch were based on incomplete intelligence and satellite photos pointed to nothing conclusive, the Washington Post reported on Tuesday.

Seoul is not sure if North Korea has finished fuelling the missile, lawmaker Chung Hyung-gun told reporters after a briefing with South Korean intelligence agency officials.

Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington have said a launch would present a grave threat to regional security, while the United States and Japan have promised harsh action if the test flight goes ahead.

China, the North's closest ally, said it had no details of any test-flight preparations and called for calm.

South Korea's weather agency forecast overcast skies and storms on Tuesday in North Hamgyong province, where North Korea has a launch site, and said this should be the pattern for the rest of the week as a storm front moves through.

Analysts say clouds and storms would make it difficult for North Korea to track a missile once in flight, decreasing the likelihood of a launch.

"You don't want to test launch a missile into a storm," said Peter Beck, a Korea analyst in Seoul for the International Crisis Group.

Reports of test preparations coincide with a stalemate in six-party talks on unwinding Pyongyang's nuclear arms programs.

Some analysts believe that North Korea is piqued world attention has shifted to concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions and angered at a U.S. crackdown that has frozen hard currency income from alleged illegal activities such as money laundering.

PLAYING A FINESSE GAME?

Beck said that by raising the prospect of a missile test, the Stalinist state had successfully grabbed global attention and rattled security concerns, but he was not sure if Pyongyang would scrap the launch in the face of pressure or go ahead.

"If they are really playing a finesse game they will back away but ... they are not known for their finesse game," he said.

Alexander Vershbow, U.S. ambassador to Seoul, told reporters on Tuesday any work on a potential delivery system, such as a missile, for a nuclear weapon creates a serious security threat.

Proliferation experts have said it is not likely North Korea has the technology to miniaturize a nuclear weapon so that it can be mounted on a missile.

South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon, speaking at an arms control conference in Geneva, said a long-range missile launch would be a serious setback for international efforts to curb the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

In Seoul, a spokesman for the ruling Uri Party said after meeting government officials that South Korea had explained to Pyongyang the grave consequences of a launch and urged the North not to fire a missile.

In an official media report on Tuesday, North Korea called on Washington not to develop space-based weapons, saying it had a "deep-rooted scheme to gratify its ambition of world supremacy", but it did no mention its own missile or satellite ambitions.

North Korea shocked the world in 1998 when it fired a missile, part of which flew over Japan and landed in the Pacific Ocean. Pyongyang trumpeted that as a satellite launch.

"A missile launch is North Korea's second-biggest 'card' after a nuclear test, and they would have to seriously consider the timing," said Masao Okonogi, a Korea expert at Keio University in Tokyo.

"I think this is a bluff," he said.

(Additional reporting by Jack Kim and Lee Jin-joo in SEOUL, Ben Blanchard in BEIJING, Linda Sieg in TOKYO)

[American Patriot]

This is an image of what things will look like after the launch.

(Sorry couldn't resist )

Actually, that is SOUTH Korea that is all lit up there and the DARK space above is North Korea. I guess they don't have much electricity. So, launching a nuclear missile might be a bit ambitious.

I did hear, as soon as they get this thing launched, they are going to start working on in-door plumbing though.

[American Patriot]

North Korea Lashes Out At U.S.
Amid Rising Tensions Over Potential Missile Launch, U.S. Stages Pacific War Games

SEOUL, South Korea, June 20, 2006

CBS/AP) North Korea lashed out at the United States over its plans to build a missile defense shield Tuesday but didn't directly address concerns that it is preparing to test-fire a missile capable of reaching the United States.

Amid rising tensions in the region over a potential launch, the United States staged massive war games in the western Pacific Ocean with 22,000 troops and three aircraft carriers that filled the skies with fighter planes. The U.S. ambassador to South Korea conveyed Washington's concerns over a launch to former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung, who plans to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Il next week.

There were conflicting reports about whether a missile launch was imminent.

A Japanese TV report Tuesday said satellite images show the North was still fueling its missile, because fueling vehicles have been spotted around the suspected launch site in the country's northeast. But workers spotted near the head of the missile Monday weren't visible Tuesday, Japan's public broadcaster NHK said, citing U.S. military sources in Japan.

The launch site appears to be guarded by about 1,000 troops, the report added.

Former U.N. Ambassador Bill Richardson, who has met repeatedly with the North Koreans, told CBS News chief White House correspondent Jim Axelrod that he expects the missile launch.

"It's too late now for them not to," he said. "It's on the launch pad. Not having launched at this time would be an act of weakness."

A U.S. official in Washington, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Monday that U.S. intelligence indicated that North Korea had finished fueling its long-range missile. However, Japan's Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Jinen Nagase said Tuesday that Japan could not confirm that fueling was complete.

South Korea's spy agency, the National Intelligence Service, believes North Korea hasn't yet completed fueling because the 40 fuel tanks seen around a launch site weren't enough to fuel a projectile estimated at 65 tons, Yonhap news agency reported, quoting lawmakers who attended an intelligence briefing.

There have also been varying expert comments on whether the completion of fueling would mean a launch was imminent or whether Pyongyang could wait up to a month. Siphoning the fuel back out of a missile is believed to be difficult.

South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon said it appeared some rockets had been assembled but that the North's intentions were unclear.

If the North is "really able to carry nuclear warheads by long-range missile, that would create serious security problems for the international community," Ban told reporters in Geneva, where he is attending international meetings.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, meanwhile, urged North Korean leaders on Tuesday to heed international cries of alarm over its apparent missile plans.

The French prime minister, speaking after talks with Annan, said France shared the concerns. Any North Korean missile test must be met with a "firm and just response" from the international community, said Dominique de Villepin.

"We need to continue to put international pressure on North Korea to withdraw, to stop, to not test, to not engage in this provocative move," Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., told CBS News' The Early Show.

"…What North Korea is doing is trying to provoke not just the United States, but the international community. All responses need to be on the table. This missile could actually reach the United States," Frist added. "So surely if we're going to be defending our homeland here to the fullest extent possible, we need to be completely prepared to do whatever it takes."

Meanwhile, bad weather over the launch site on Tuesday dimmed chances of an immediate launch, Axelrod reports. There were cloudy skies, with rain expected in the area between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, said Kim Seung-bae of the South's Korea Meteorological Administration.

(CBS/AP)
There were no reports of a launch by Tuesday evening, and the North is considered unlikely to launch at nighttime.

North Korea lashed out Tuesday at the United States for its missile defense plans, which it said would "touch off a space war in the long run," the North's Minju Joson newspaper wrote in a commentary, according to the country's Korean Central News Agency.

The North also criticized Japan. The Pentagon earlier this month said Tokyo was set to buy shipborne missiles and associated equipment from the U.S. to upgrade its missile defense system.

The North claimed Tokyo's new missiles showed an intent to become "a military giant" and mount "overseas aggression," the North's main newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, said in commentary carried by KCNA.

South Korea urged its neighbor to abandon a long-range missile launch or face grave consequences.

Seoul "explained to North Korea the serious repercussions a missile launch would bring and strongly demanded that test fire plans be scrapped," ruling Uri Party spokesman Woo Sang-ho said Tuesday in a statement.

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Monday in Washington that test-launching the missile, believed to be a Taepodong-2 with a firing range experts estimate could be up to 9,300 miles, would be a "very serious matter and, indeed, a provocative act."

The North has abided by a self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile tests since 1999.

North Korea claims it has nuclear weapons, but isn't believed to have a design that would be small and light enough to top a missile. The North has boycotted international nuclear talks since last November, in anger over a U.S. crackdown on its alleged illegal financial activity.

The U.S. ambassador to South Korea, Alexander Vershbow, said after meeting former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung that Washington wants normal relations with the North and urged it to return to the nuclear talks. To launch a test missile at this time would "only further compound North Korea's isolation," he told reporters.

"Fresh on the heels of offering Iran an incentives program with all five permanent members in agreement, the U.N. is in a good position to act if Pyongyang breaks its own moratorium on launching missiles," says CBS News foreign affairs analyst Pamela Falk. Calling North Korea's nuclear activities a more dangerous threat than Iran's, Falk adds that "it will take more negotiations if the major powers need to offer a package of incentives comparable to those offered to Tehran."

Kim is set to reprise his historic June 2000 summit in Pyongyang that marked the first-and-only meeting of leaders from the North and South, although the missile issue is complicating trip arrangements.

After its last long-range launch in August 1998, the North had said it was seeking to put a satellite in orbit, an assertion roundly dismissed by the U.S.

Vershbow said claims of what the rocket might be carrying were irrelevant given its potential to be used as a weapon.

"The view of the U.S. government is that this missile has military capability and we view it therefore as a serious matter, particularly in the context of North Korea's illegal development of nuclear weapons," he said.

China, North Korea's staunchest ally, urged calm.

"We hope that under the current circumstances, relevant parties can do more in the interest of regional stability and peace," said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu.

Despite the latest standoff, North and South Korea opened two days of meetings in a North Korean border city on how to expand a joint industrial zone there.

[American Patriot]

North Korea’s Missile Launch Site Under Watchful Eyes
By Leonard David
Senior Space Writer
posted: 19 June 2006
01:44 pm ET

North Korea’s Pyongyang’s Taepodong-2 missile launch is under the watchful eyes of both U.S. military and civilian satellites.

The looming liftoff of the missile flies in the face of stern warnings from both the United States and Japan. Meanwhile, numbers of reports suggest that fueling of the rocket has been completed, although bad weather in the launch area could delay the flight.

The Taepodong-2 missile is purportedly capable of reaching a target nearly 3,000 miles away, thus putting in range, for example, United States territory.

Mark Brender, Vice President, Communications & Marketing for GeoEye of Dulles, Virginia, told SPACE.com that their Orbview-3 and IKONOS commercial remote sensing satellites have repeatedly taken snapshots of North Korea’s Taepo Dong launch complex in the northeast part of the country.

GeoEye satellite imagery has documented the work leading up to the rocket’s takeoff.

Satellite launch attempt?

Globalsecurity.org based in Alexandria, Virginia—a watchdog and think tank group on security issues—has also kept an eye on North Korea’s missile work.

“If this launch does not occur within the next few weeks then it must be assumed that some political policy and or technical issue have scrubbed this attempt for some unknown period,” reported Charles Vick, a senior fellow of the group that specializes in Russian, Chinese, Iranian and North Korean ballistic missiles and space boosters analysis.

Vick has reported that the North Korean missile is likely topped with a communications satellite.

Preparations for the possible orbital test launch of the Taep’o-dong-2C/3 have been monitored using a number of assets, Vick reported. Based on open press reports, he said, U.S. intelligence-gathering operations about the rocket preparations have included U-2 spy plane or space-based spysats, as well as Japanese imaging observation satellites.

Vick stated that the booster’s payload is assumed to be a communications satellite.

“The fact that the launch site is above ground exposed where a very great deal can be observed certainly holds that this is a satellite launch attempt not a strategic ballistic missile operation,” Vick reported on the Globalsecurity.org web site. “If the launch were to occur from a coffin launch site or a large silo facility then it would be an easily recognizable strategic systems test. A true full range ICBM flight test is not at this time expected out of North Korea,” he said.

Vick noted that there is very little difference between an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) and a satellite launch vehicle test “since the delivery transport system is being commonly demonstrated.”

[American Patriot]

Scrutiny Of N. Korean Missile Intense
by UPI Wire
Jun 20, 2006

WASHINGTON, June 20, 2006 (UPI) -- The Bush administration was keenly monitoring satellite surveillance of a ballistic missile in eastern North Korea Tuesday that appeared ready to launch.

Military experts said siphoning out the fuel is highly dangerous and North Korea can't allow the fuel to sit in the Taepodong-2 for too long because it would corrode the missile's casing, the Financial Times reported from Washington.

"We're still waiting. We don't know what their intentions are," a senior State Department official told The Los Angeles Times.

[American Patriot]

Scrutiny of N. Korean missile intense

WASHINGTON, June 20 (UPI) -- The Bush administration was keenly monitoring satellite surveillance of a ballistic missile in eastern North Korea Tuesday that appeared ready to launch.

Military experts said siphoning out the fuel is highly dangerous and North Korea can't allow the fuel to sit in the Taepodong-2 for too long because it would corrode the missile's casing, the Financial Times reported from Washington.

"We're still waiting. We don't know what their intentions are," a senior State Department official told The Los Angeles Times.

Monday, President George Bush made calls to more than a dozen heads of state to discuss the consequences of a launch, said White House spokesman Tony Snow. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned that a launch of a ballistic missile would be a "provocative act," and John Bolton, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said he was consulting members of the U.N. Security Council on how to respond to any test.

In Tokyo, officials said Japan would respond "severely," while South Korea early Tuesday also delivered a stern warning against a launch.

[American Patriot]

Ambassador Schieffer's Q&A on North Korea and Missiles

Ministry of Foreign Affairs Lobby
Tokyo, Japan
June 17, 2006

http://tokyo.usembassy.gov/e/p/tp-20060618-78.html



AMBASSADOR SCHIEFFER: Minister Aso and I had a very good consultation. We exchanged views on this very grave matter. Both of us, I think, agree that this is a situation that calls for consultation between allies at the highest level. We take it very seriously that this is a grave and provocative action that the North Koreans are contemplating, and we hope that they will turn back from launching a missile. If they did that, I think it would be a very provocative act. And the United States and Japan agree on that.

QUESTION: Do you believe that the missile is ready to be launched?

AMBASSADOR SCHIEFFER: We don't know. There are indications that the North Koreans are preparing to launch a missile, and beyond that, I don't want to go into any specific details.

QUESTION: Sir, do you have any specific timeframe for the launch?

AMBASSADOR SCHIEFFER: I don't.

QUESTION: Do you know (in) which direction it will be launched, if it will be launched?

AMBASSADOR SCHIEFFER: No.

QUESTION: What would be the main message for North Korea from your meeting today?

AMBASSADOR SCHIEFFER: I think the main message here is that we hope that the North Koreans will not take this provocative action. We hope that they will return to the Six-Party Talks. Those talks can still be productive, but there is no good that can come from launching a North Korean missile. It will only isolate the North Koreans further from the rest of the international community.

QUESTION: Do you think that a launch is possible in the next few days?

AMBASSADOR SCHIEFFER: I really wouldn't want to go into any timeframe or whatnot, but we do believe that they have taken some actions preparatory to firing a missile. And we think that if they were to launch, it would be a very provocative action, and that it would not contribute to peace and stability in the region.

QUESTION: So you're saying that if they were to launch it, that it could happen anytime?

AMBASSADOR SCHIEFFER: Well, they've taken steps. We don't know exactly how close they are to that, but as I said, we view it as a very provocative action. And we hope that the North Koreans would back away from launching a missile, because it would do nothing but isolate them further from the international community.

QUESTION: Are there any specific steps that you'll be taking as a result of this talk?

AMBASSADOR SCHIEFFER: We're in close consultation with each other; we have been for the past several days, and we will continue to do so because we think it's very important for the international community to speak with one voice on that. And of course our ally Japan is very important to this whole process. The two governments, I think, share a common desire to urge the North Koreans to back away from taking this action.

QUESTION: Did you discuss about after the launch, what you are going to do?

AMBASSADOR SCHIEFFER: We talked about a number of things in this whole process, and that's all ongoing. We want to be sure that we are coordinating our policies, and I believe that we are.

QUESTION: Sir, there has been a report from South Korea that North Korea has launched an artificial satellite to cover up for its missile launch. Has there been?

AMBASSADOR SCHIEFFER: I'm not aware of that.

QUESTION: Do you believe that the missile could be for peaceful purposes?

AMBASSADOR SCHIEFFER: I don't think so. Heretofore the missile program has been a military-missile program, and we don't see anything that would lead us to conclude anything else.

QUESTION: The missile could cause a serious threat to the United States; it could reach Alaska ...

AMBASSADOR SCHIEFFER: I think that when you talk about launching potential intercontinental ballistic missiles, that is a dangerous and provocative action. And it would be viewed as such by the United States.

QUESTION: Are you going to take any action toward North Korea when they launch?

AMBASSADOR SCHIEFFER: I think that in the event that they would launch, we would have all options on the table and would consider many different alternatives to dissuade them from doing that in the future. Thank you.

[American Patriot]

North Korea denies long-range missile test

June 17 2006 at 05:18PM

By Chisaki Watanabe

Tokyo - North Korean officials have denied that the country is preparing to test-launch a long-range missile.

Visiting officials from the North told a South Korean law-maker that concerns over Pyongyang's possible missile test were "unfounded", Japan's Kyodo News agency reported from the southern capital, Seoul.

The US and Japan both urged North Korea to suspend preparations for the test and called on it to return to stalled talks about dismantling its nuclear weapons programme.

The US and Japan made the show of unity amid mounting speculation that North Korea might abandon its self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile tests by launching a Taepodong-2, which is capable of reaching the US with a light payload.

Japanese and South Korean media reports said the North had loaded booster rockets on to a launch pad in preparation for a missile test and could be planning an attempt to disguise the test as a satellite launch. One Japanese newspaper said a test could come as soon as Sunday, though other reports did not specify a day.

US Ambassador to Japan Thomas Schieffer met Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso on Saturday evening and each issued a statement telling North Korea that a launch would be widely criticised and would be against the impoverished nation's interests.

"We hope the North Koreans will not take this provocative action. We hope they will return to the six-party talks," Schieffer said. He was referring to negotiations on the North's nuclear programme.

"A launch will only isolate the North Koreans further from the rest of the international community," he added.

The nuclear talks have been stalled since last year thanks to a North Korean boycott. The nations taking part are China, Japan, the two Koreas, Russia and the US.

Schieffer said Washington was working with allies on how to respond if North Korea went ahead with the launch but refused to be specific - "all options are on the table".

Aso told reporters the situation was "serious" and that North Korea had been warned not to fire the missile.

"How they respond is up to them," he said.

Tokyo was badly rattled in 1998 when North Korea fired a missile over northern Japan and into the Pacific Ocean. The move spurred Tokyo to work with Washington - which has 50 000 troops based in Japan - on a joint missile-defence system.

A human rights group in Osaka, Japan, called Rescue the North Korean People! Urgent Action Network, or RENK, issued a statement saying that turmoil between pro-army and pro-economic reform factions in North Korea led to the 1998 test. The group said there was similar turmoil now.

"This time it is fairly unlikely that North Korea is using the launch fuss just to intimidate other countries," the group said. "There is a high possibility that North Korea will recklessly go ahead with a launch without taking into account the situation outside the country."

Japan's conservative Sankei Shimbun newspaper said the North could launch a missile as early as Sunday and that Japan has dispatched two Aegis destroyers to the Sea of Japan and into the Pacific Ocean. Hidetsugu Iwamasa, a Japanese naval official, said he could not comment. - Sapa-AP

[American Patriot]

U.S., Japan urge North Korea not to test long-range missile

TOKYO (AP) — The United States and Japan urged North Korea not to proceed with reported plans to test-fire a long-range missile that could reach the U.S. mainland, saying Saturday that a launch would be dangerous and provocative.

But North Korean officials later denied such preparations, the Kyodo News agency reported, citing a South Korean official it did not identify.

Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso said Tokyo would seek a meeting of the U.N. Security Council if North Korea launched the missile and warned it would be "inevitable" for the council to consider imposing sanctions against the communist country, Kyodo reported Sunday.

In an interview with TV Asahi, Aso said Japan would "naturally file a stern protest" with the Security Council "and it will be fierce."

Also and U.S. Ambassador to Japan Thomas Schieffer met Saturday night amid mounting speculation the North could soon test a Taepodong-2 missile capable of reaching the United States with a light payload.

After the meeting, Schieffer reiterated Washington's stance that the test would be a dangerous act that would hurt North Korean interests. The North has been under a self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile tests since 1999.

"We hope that the North Koreans will not take this provocative action. We hope that they will return to the six-party talks," Schieffer said, referring to international talks aiming to get North Korea to give up its nuclear program.

Those talks — involving the United States, the two Koreas, China, Japan and Russia — have been stalled by a North Korean boycott.

A launch "will only isolate the North Koreans further from the rest of the international community," he said.

Schieffer said Washington was working with allies on how to respond if North Korea goes ahead with the launch, but he refused to be specific, saying only that "all options are on the table."

White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said a North Korean missile launch would violate a moratorium on long-range missile tests declared in 1999 by North Korean leader Kim Jong Il.

"This would be yet another instance of North Korea violating the international commitments it has made," she said.

Aso told reporters Saturday that the situation was "serious" and that North Korea had been warned not to fire the missile. "How we will respond depends on what North Korea does," he said.

Japan has grown increasingly tense as news reports emerge that Pyongyang could soon launch the missile. North Korea fired a missile over northern Japan into the Pacific Ocean in 1998, and the move spurred Tokyo to work with Washington on a missile defense system.

A U.S. government official told the Associated Press on Friday that a test of the Taepodong-2 may be imminent. The Washington official agreed to speak only on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the information.

South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo reported Saturday that North Korea also moved about 10 fuel tanks to the launch site in preparation for the test.

It said intelligence authorities from Seoul and Washington had made the assessment, based on satellite images, that the North had loaded booster rockets onto a launch pad and moved the fuel tanks close by. The paper quoted an unidentified high-level South Korean government official.

Japan's conservative daily Sankei reported that the North Korean government has ordered its people to raise the national flag at 2 p.m. Sunday and to watch a state message on television in the late afternoon.

However, the North's state television monitored in Seoul was showing an old movie at 2 p.m. Sunday.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency said the order to raise the flag may have been part of preparations for a national event Monday marking the 46th anniversary of Kim taking a role in the communist party.

Sankei, citing government officials it did not name, said the Japanese government had dispatched two Aegis destroyers to the Sea of Japan and the Pacific Ocean. Hidetsugu Iwamasa, a Japanese naval official, said he could not comment on the report, citing security concerns.

North Korea plans to disguise the missile test as an attempt to put a satellite into orbit, Kyodo reported Saturday. Pyongyang has been calculating an orbit for a fake satellite and plans to announce its trajectory after firing the missile, Kyodo reported from Beijing, citing military intelligence officials it did not identify.

North Korea said in 1998 that its launch then was an effort to put a satellite in space, but Washington and Tokyo say that is just a cover for a military program.

[American Patriot]

China stays mum on N.Korea missile antics
By Edward Lanfranco Jun 20, 2006, 16:16 GMT

BEIJING, China (UPI) -- China`s foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu dodged questions concerning North Korea`s possible trial of a new long range ballistic missile on Tuesday.

Jiang made her debut as a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson last week and appears not to have a complete grasp or confidence in articulating the bandwidth of policy information the PRC is willing to make public at its twice weekly press briefings. Her answers were either terse one sentence statements or boilerplate commentary that did not address the questions being asked; her responses were usually a combination of both.

The Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman said her country had 'heard of reports' about the impeding North Korea missile test, but repeatedly refused to offer details on when and where China had first learned about the planned trial.

Any launch, successful or otherwise, would ratchet up tensions in the ongoing crisis over North Korea`s ambitions for nuclear weapons. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned the test was 'a very serious matter and a provocative act,' saying Washington`s stance on the matter was of the 'utmost seriousness.'

There was an intense flurry of diplomatic activity over the weekend, with Secretary Rice discussing the possibility of a North Korean missile launch with her Japanese and Chinese counterparts, pressuring the PRC in particular to have its client state put a halt to the test.

When queried about China`s reaction to Rice`s comments, the spokeswoman sidestepped by giving a bland statement about her government wanting 'peace on the Korean peninsula and working with relevant parties' towards that end.

The U.S. rebuffed a North Korean offer made in early June for its chief nuclear negotiator, Christopher Hill, to visit Pyongyang for discussions. The North insists a resolution to the nuclear crisis can come about only through direct talks and a non-aggression pact with Washington.

The Bush administration continues to support the six party process -- involving China, the United States, North and South Korea, Japan and Russia -- as the best means to resolve the key multilateral crisis facing East Asia. Talks have bogged down since the North has refused to return to the table after an American crackdown on banks in Macao dealing with the North Korean government and companies suspected of laundering drug money and counterfeiting U.S. currency.

Analysts believe the silence shown by the PRC on the issue is an effort to downplay reports North Korea has fueled its Taepodong-2 missile and stands on the precipice of testing a weapon system that in its most advanced three stage version would be capable of reaching the United States.

The test would break a moratorium on North Korean missile tests that has held since 1999. The last test of a long-range missile, a Taepodong-1, was fired over Japan in 1998.

Members of the American intelligence community believe the missile on the launch pad is a two stage version rocket which has the capability of hitting Alaska.

Some U.S. and Japanese officials believe North Korea is poised to launch because the Taepodong-2 missile has been fueled. It has been five weeks since the first satellite imagery showed launch preparations underway at the Musudan-ri missile facility in North Hamgyong province in northeastern North Korea.

Bad weather at the launch site delayed any test of missile system on Tuesday.

U.S. experts think that North Korea has sufficient plutonium for a minimum of six nuclear weapons and is continuing to beef up its atomic arsenal. Defense specialists say it is plausible the North might be able to build a nuclear warhead small enough to be fit on a missile.

A western diplomat speaking on condition of anonymity told United Press International the North Koreans 'were putting on a show of brinksmanship and bluster,' but did not think an actual launch would take place for fear of 'alienating the regime`s big brother.'

Despite recent efforts by South Korea to help its brethren north of the 38th parallel, North Korea remains wholly dependant upon China for its security against any possible U.S. use of force against either its nuclear or missile facilities. The PRC also offers multiple forms of economic support to keep its communist neighbor from disintegrating.

When reporters asked what China`s response would be if North Korea conducted its missile test and why her answers on this urgent issue were so brief, spokeswoman Jiang retorted by saying she 'wouldn`t discuss hypothetical situations' and that 'this is a press briefing, not a symposium.'

Copyright 2006 by United Press International

[American Patriot]

North Korea's very bad idea
The New York Times

Published: June 20, 2006

No one can claim a very good track record for figuring out what North Korea is up to and why, and that plainly applies to the North's reported preparations for testing a long-range missile that one day may be capable of reaching the United States. Maybe North Korea is just jealous of all the attention Iran has been getting as a result of Tehran's recent nuclear bad behavior, and craves a spotlight of its own. Maybe Pyongyang, which hasn't tested such a long-range missile in eight years, wants to see if its new, more advanced model actually works.

Or maybe North Korea is perversely eager to see the United States speed up its missile-defense plans, Japan to become more hawkish on military issues and South Korean politicians who favor talking and trading with the North lose next year's elections.

But if we cannot be sure of North Korea's motives, we can be reasonably sure of the consequences if Pyongyang does go ahead and launch the missile - which Washington says, citing satellite photos, is now fully fueled and ready to go. And those consequences will be thoroughly bad for North Korea, for its region and for just about everyone else. They will immensely complicate negotiating the kind of nuclear deal North Korea is thought to want - a grand bargain that would give it desperately needed economic help and long-sought security guarantees in exchange for abandoning its nuclear weapons program.

The consequences could be exceedingly grim for the rest of Northeast Asia as well. North Korea's previous long-range missile test in 1998 flew over Japanese airspace, shocking Japan out of its long postwar complacency about national defense. The main result has been a rise in military nationalism among Japanese politicians and the public. Another direct consequence has been increased Japanese reluctance to deal with North Korea.

Why North Korea would want to increase its isolation and antagonize its few friends like China and South Korea is hard to comprehend. But North Korea-watching is full of such mysteries.

Washington, for its part, has reacted sensibly, not wasting a lot of time on diplomatic rigmarole and delivering instead a clear and direct message to North Korea not to proceed with a missile test. We hope that North Korea's next surprise is to respond equally sensibly and cancel whatever plans it has for such a self- destructive move.

[American Patriot]

China Tells N. Korea Not to Fire Missile, Envoy Says

June 20 (Bloomberg) -- China has told North Korea not to launch a long-range ballistic missile because of U.S. and Japanese opposition and the damage a test-firing would do to talks aimed at ending the secretive government's nuclear program, China's envoy to the United Nations said.

``We told them there are a lot of concerns,'' Ambassador Wang Guangya said in an interview today. ``If they do it, then the political atmosphere among the major parties will be very negative. You cannot say this action is a violation of this or that convention, but it would not be a constructive move.''

Concerns about North Korea's missile program and testing are heightened because of the communist country's effort to produce nuclear weapons. Japan and Australia have joined the U.S. in cautioning North Korea, ruled by the reclusive Kim Jong Il, against a launch.

Wang said China's government has ``checked with'' North Korea to determine whether a launch is imminent. He said officials in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, didn't provide any information.

Response Weighed

U.S. and Japanese envoys to the UN said they would press for UN Security Council action in the event of a test-firing, a move that Wang said China would resist. China has repeatedly blocked Security Council consideration of any discussion of North Korea's nuclear program, arguing that any action would hinder progress in the talks among six governments on the issue.

``We are in consultations with various members of the Security Council on what steps might be taken,'' U.S. Ambassador John Bolton told reporters yesterday.

The Pentagon has activated a ground-based missile interceptor system, the Washington Times reported, citing unidentified officials. Two U.S. Navy Aegis warships are on patrol near North Korea to detect a launch and help trigger the interceptor missiles, nine of which are based in Alaska and two in California, the newspaper reported.

Japanese Ambassador Kenzo Oshima said he hoped the Security Council would take ``meaningful action'' against North Korea in the event a long-range missile is launched.

``I checked the different documents,'' Wang said. ``There is no international legal document to prevent the test of a missile.''

Last week, Japan said a long-range missile test would violate a 2002 agreement reached when Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and North Korea's Kim met in Pyongyang. An unidentified North Korean official told Japanese reporters that his country is not bound by the test ban pledge in the accord, Japan's Kyodo news agency said.

North Korea, Talks

Asked today in Washington if North Korea was acting in reaction to U.S. unwillingness to hold direct talks, Bolton said no, adding ``Nobody can read Kim Jong Il's mind. I don't spend a lot of time on it.''

Diplomats from the U.S., South Korea, China, Japan and Russia have been trying to persuade North Korea's leadership to abandon a nuclear arms program and resume talks aimed at dismantling it in exchange for technology and trade benefits and other aid. Millions of North Koreans have relied on international food-aid shipments for their survival in the impoverished nation.

North Korea has refused to return to the negotiations until the U.S. removes sanctions it imposed over allegations of money laundering and counterfeiting by North Korean companies.

North Korea may have completed the fueling for the missile test, Reuters cited unidentified U.S. government officials as saying June 18 in Washington. It is unlikely North Korea will abandon the test once the missile is fueled because of the complex process of siphoning the fuel out, the report said.

`Playing Games'

President George W. Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley have contacted ``more than a dozen'' heads of state to discuss the missile, White House spokesman Tony Snow told reporters in Washington yesterday.

North Korea fired a long-range Taepodong 1 missile that flew over Japan before landing in the Pacific Ocean in 1998. It has test-fired short-range missiles since then, including two missiles in March. The U.S. confirmed the tests.

North Korea may be preparing to launch a satellite rather than testing a missile, South Korea's ruling party said, citing Unification Minister Lee Jong Seok. Uri party spokesman Woo Sang Ho said it was ``difficult to discern'' whether the launch vehicle is a missile or a satellite.

``They might be playing games by doing something fake,'' Wang said. ``They are very good at playing games, psychological warfare to gain their political credits. We should not be fooled by them.''

To contact the reporter of this story:
Bill Varner at the United Nations at
wvarner@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: June 20, 2006 13:48 EDT

[American Patriot]

U.S. Pressures North Korea Over Missile
Rice says a launch would be a 'provocative act.' Bush confers with world leaders, and South Korea issues a stern warning to Pyongyang.
By Peter Spiegel and Barbara Demick, Times Staff Writers
June 20, 2006

WASHINGTON — The Bush administration moved to ratchet up diplomatic pressure on North Korea on Monday, with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warning that a launch of a ballistic missile would be a "provocative act" that would signal Pyongyang's rejection of international efforts to reach a compromise on its nuclear weapons program.

The prospect of a long-range missile in the hands of one of the world's most stridently anti-American regimes spread alarm in Washington. A missile test at this time would also be an embarrassing setback to the Bush administration's efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation in Iran and elsewhere.

President Bush participated in overseas phone calls made by administration officials, and U.S. military officials pointed to their missile defense capabilities without indicating whether there were plans to use them. In Tokyo, officials said Japan would respond "severely," and South Korean officials early today also delivered a stern warning.

The missile is thought to have a range that could reach U.S. territories in the Pacific such as Guam and possibly parts of Alaska or Hawaii. Analysts believe it is considerably more sophisticated than the Taepodong 1 that North Korea shot into the Pacific Ocean in 1998 before signing a missile-testing moratorium.

As of Monday, satellite intelligence from the launch site in Musudan-ri on North Korea's east coast suggested that the fueling was on the verge of completion. Once fueling is finished, U.S. sources said, any launch probably would take place within 48 hours, since such missiles can be damaged if left fueled for extended periods. Siphoning off liquid fuel is considered difficult and dangerous.

A South Korean official told reporters in Seoul that all that remained was "the click of a button."

But another South Korean official questioned whether fueling was completed and said the launch had not passed the point of no return. The official hinted at efforts to get North Korea to change its mind.

"The unofficial communication channel is always open," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

With talks seemingly at a standstill and military options considered imprudent, U.S. officials were left to wonder about North Korea's next step.

"We're still waiting. We don't know what their intentions are," said a senior State Department official, speaking on condition of anonymity given the uncertainty involved. "We don't know for sure that they're going to push the button. But the trend lines have all been in one direction."

Bush took part in calls to more than a dozen heads of state and government to discuss the consequences of a launch, said White House spokesman Tony Snow. He refused to name leaders contacted by Bush. Snow confirmed that U.S. diplomats have been in contact with North Korean counterparts in New York, where the two countries have on occasion communicated through their United Nations delegations.

After days of silence, South Korea joined Japan and the United States early today and issued a pointed warning.

"The government explained to North Korea the serious repercussions a missile launch would bring and strongly demanded that test-fire plans be scrapped," Woo Sang-ho, a spokesman for South Korea's ruling Uri Party, said this morning in Seoul.

The U.S. issued similar warnings in 1998 when it learned that North Korea had begun fueling a Taepodong 1 missile, a multistage rocket that can fly about 1,250 miles, but Pyongyang ignored the admonishments and launched the missile over Japan. The projectile, which if developed sufficiently could be a delivery system for a nuclear weapon, dropped harmlessly into the Pacific after its third stage blew up.

In 1993, North Korea test-fired a modified Scud missile with a range of about 620 miles.

The situation today is more dangerous than in 1998 because North Korea has considerably advanced its nuclear program. The nation pulled out of a nuclear-freeze agreement in 2002 and restarted its reactor and reprocessing plant in Yongbyon.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Il — toward whom Bush has expressed great personal animosity, although the two have never met — has made a point of snubbing the administration's nonproliferation efforts.

Since September, Pyongyang has boycotted six-nation meetings over negotiating a dismantlement of its nuclear program. Measures to punish the North Koreans by shutting down an overseas bank the regime was accused of using to launder proceeds of drug trafficking and counterfeiting have so far failed to bring Pyongyang into compliance.

The CIA believes that North Korea has enough nuclear material for 10 weapons, although it is not clear whether its scientists have the ability to make a nuclear warhead that could be mounted on a missile.

Missile experts in South Korea and the United States believe that the current missile is not carrying a warhead, but a satellite. The technology for launching a satellite or a warhead is virtually the same, but if it launches a satellite, North Korea could claim that it was a purely civilian undertaking.

[Ryan Ruck]

China Tells N. Korea Not to Fire Missile, Envoy Says

...

*Wink, Wink, Nod, Nod*

[American Patriot]

LOL@ RYAN!

From the Los Angeles Times
North Korea Launch Concerns Mount

By Barbara Demick
Times Staff Writer
Published June 20, 2006, 11:06 AM CDT

Defying international pressure, North Korea today defended its right to test-fire a long-range missile under international law.

In Pyongyang's first public comment on the emerging conflict over the missile launch, a North Korean official visiting Tokyo said that the country did not consider itself bound by a 1999 testing moratorium or other agreements.

"This is a matter of national sovereignty, and no one has the right to criticize it," Lee Byung-du, a director at the North Korean Foreign Ministry, was quoted as telling reporters by Japan's Kyodo News Service.

The North Korean did not elaborate on what was occurring at a remote missile base on his country's East Coast, where intelligence satellites have observed the apparent assembling and fueling of a multistage missile.

If anything, North Korea's intentions have become less clear because of a growing controversy over the intelligence data.

South Korean officials today challenged the U.S. assertion that North Korea had completed the fueling process, making a launch both inevitable and imminent.

The National Intelligence Service told the National Assembly today that only 40 fuel canisters were observed around the launch site at the Musudan-ri missile base, and that the number was far too little to fuel what is said to be a 115-foot long, 65-ton multistage missile.

In addition, the South Korean government is questioning whether the missile in question is for military use.

One government official who had attended a briefing said the nature of the liquid fuel at the site and the way it is being assembled above ground suggested a civilian purpose, such as for launching a satellite.

"We believe it is premature to judge whether this is a missile or a satellite. We are not jumping to conclusions," said the official who asked not to be named.

In 1998, North Korean launched a similar multistage Taepodong I missile over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean. They claimed the missile carried a satellite that was broadcasting North Korean revolutionary hymns, and was contributing to "scientific research for peaceful use of outer space."

The United States and Japan disputed the North Korean assertion.

North Korea signed a missile-testing moratorium in 1999 and renewed the pledge in 2002 during a summit in Pyongyang between North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. The North Koreans say that the moratorium expired in 2003.



Copyright © 2006, The Los Angeles Times

[American Patriot]

North Korea warns of arms race in space
20/06/2006 - 10:12:03

North Korea today warned that US moves to build a missile shield were fuelling a dangerous arms race in space, as countries in the region urged the communist nation to halt apparent plans to launch a long-range missile.

Amid rising tensions in the region, the United States staged massive war games in the western Pacific Ocean with 22,000 troops and three aircraft carriers that filled the skies with fighter planes.

The US ambassador to South Korea conveyed Washington’s concerns over a possible missile launch to former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung, who plans to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Il next week.

Meanwhile, there were conflicting reports about whether a launch of a missile believed to be capable of reaching the US was imminent.

Bad weather over the purported launch site in North Korea dimmed chances of an immediate launch today. The area was very cloudy, with rain expected in the afternoon and into tomorrow morning, said Kim Seung-bae of the South’s Korea Meteorological Administration.

A US official in Washington said that US intelligence indicated that North Korea had finished fuelling its long-range missile.

However, Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Jinen Nagase said Japan could not confirm the fuelling was completed.

South Korea’s spy agency, the National Intelligence Service, believes North Korea hasn’t yet completed fuelling the rocket because the 40 fuel tanks seen around a launch site weren’t enough to fuel a projectile estimated to be 65 tonnes, Yonhap news agency reported, quoting politicians who attended an intelligence briefing.

There have also been varying expert comments on whether fuelling would mean a launch was imminent – due to the corrosive fuels inside the rocket – or whether Pyongyang could wait up to a month. Siphoning the fuel back out of a missile is believed to be difficult.

North Korea lashed out today at the United States for its missile defence plans, which it said would “lead to fierce strife for supremacy among the powers in space that was not witnessed even in the Cold War days and touch off a space war in the long run,” the North’s Minju Joson newspaper wrote in a commentary, according to the country’s Korean Central News Agency.

The North also criticised Japan. The Pentagon earlier this month said Tokyo was set to buy shipborne missiles and associated equipment from the US to upgrade its missile defence system.

The North claimed Tokyo’s new missiles showed an intent to become “a military giant” and mount “overseas aggression,” the North’s main newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, said in commentary carried by KCNA.

South Korea urged its neighbour to abandon a long-range missile launch or face grave consequences.

Seoul “explained to North Korea the serious repercussions a missile launch would bring and strongly demanded that test fire plans be scrapped,” ruling Uri Party spokesman Woo Sang-ho said in a statement after politicians were briefed by top officials.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said yesterday in Washington that test-launching the missile – believed to be a Taepodong-2 with a firing range experts estimate could be up to 9,300 miles – would be a “very serious matter and, indeed, a provocative act”.

The North has abided by a self-imposed moratorium on long-range missile tests since 1999.

North Korea claims it has nuclear weapons, but isn’t believed to have a design that would be small and light enough to top a missile. The North has boycotted international nuclear talks since last November, in anger over a US crackdown on its alleged illegal financial activity.

The US ambassador to South Korea, Alexander Vershbow, said after meeting Kim Dae-jung that Washington wants normal relations with the North and urged it to return to the nuclear talks.

“We both agreed that carrying out the test at this time by North Korea would only further compound North Korea’s isolation and put it more apart from the international community,” Vershbow told reporters.

Kim Dae-jung is set to reprise his historic June 2000 summit in Pyongyang that marked the first-and-only meeting of leaders from the North and South, although the indications of a possible missile test are complicating the trip arrangements, one of the former president’s aides said yesterday.

After its last long-range missile launch in August 1998, the North had said it was seeking to put a satellite in orbit. Pyongyang is widely expected to make a similar claim if it goes ahead with a test launch now.

Vershbow said questions about what the rocket might be carrying were irrelevant given its potential to be used as a weapon.

“The view of the US government is that this missile has military capability and we view it therefore as a serious matter, particularly in the context of North Korea’s illegal development of nuclear weapons,” he said. “To develop a delivery system for a nuclear weapon only creates a more serious situation and that’s why we are urging North Korea not to test and come back to the six-party talks.”

China, North Korea’s staunchest ally, urged calm.

“We hope that under the current circumstances, relevant parties can do more in the interest of regional stability and peace,” said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu.

Despite the latest stand-off, North and South Korea opened two days of meetings in a North Korean border city on how to expand a joint industrial zone there.

[Ryan Ruck]

U.S. Holds Major Maneuvers off Guam Amid N. Korea Missile Fears

HAGATNA, Guam — Three aircraft carriers filled the skies with fighters as one of the largest U.S. military exercises in decades got underway Tuesday off this tiny island in the western Pacific.

For the first time ever, a Chinese delegation was sent to observe the U.S. war games. But as the show of American military power began, North Korea — one of the region's most unpredictable countries — was rattling some swords of its own.

The maneuvers, dubbed "Valiant Shield," bring three carriers together in the Pacific for the first time since the Vietnam War. Some 30 ships, 280 aircraft and 22,000 troops will be participating in the five-day war games, which end Friday.

The exercises are intended to boost the ability of the Navy, Air Force and Marines to work together and respond quickly to potential contingencies in this part of the world, U.S. military officials said. Even U.S. Coast Guard vessels were joining in the maneuvers.

"The exercises are taking place on land, sea, air, space and cyberspace," said Senior Master Sgt. Charles Ramey. "They cover the whole spectrum."

The maneuvers mark the first major operation in this remote U.S. territory about halfway between Hawaii and Japan since the announcement last month that some 8,000 Marines would be moved here from Okinawa in part of the biggest realignment of the U.S. forces in Asia in decades.

Though planned months ago, they come amid heightened concern in Asia over North Korea.

Officials in the United States, South Korea and Japan say they believe North Korea is preparing to test launch a Taepodong 2 long-range ballistic missile. The missile is believed be able to reach parts of the western United States.

Pyongyang shocked Tokyo by launching a Taepodong that flew over Japan's main island in 1998. North Korea claimed the launch successfully placed a satellite in orbit, but that claim has been widely disputed.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il agreed on a moratorium on long-range missile launches during a summit with Japan in 1999. Pyongyang has honored that agreement since, but Tokyo has threatened to impose sanctions if it goes through with the launch this time.

Military officials here had no comment on the activity in North Korea, or on what specific tactics or scenarios are being used in the exercises.

They stress, however, that the exercises have been opened to outside observation and are not intended to provoke North Korea.

"These exercises are not aimed at any one nation," said Cmdr. Mike Brown.

The exercises are instead intended to provide training in "detecting, locating, tracking and engaging" a wide range of threats in the air, land and sea.

Representatives from China, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Russia and Singapore were invited to attend.

China's presence has been singled out as particularly significant.

Though military relations between Beijing and Washington cooled when an American spy plane was captured in 2001, senior U.S. military officials are cautiously trying to mend the rift. At the same time, the Pentagon has expressed strong concern over the secrecy that shrouds China's rapidly modernizing military.

Adm. William J. Fallon, the top U.S. commander in the Pacific, said before the exercises began that implicit in the invitation was the expectation that China would reciprocate.

China's 10-member delegation includes one top-ranking officer each from the People's Liberation Army, air force and navy, the official Xinhua News Agency said Tuesday.

"The invitation to observe the U.S. military exercises is a very important component of exchanges between the militaries of China and the United States," Xinhua quoted an unidentified Defense Ministry official as saying.

Along with the USS Kitty Hawk, Ronald Reagan and Abraham Lincoln carrier strike groups, U.S. force fighters and B-2 bombers operating out of Guam's Andersen Air Force Base will join the maneuvers.

Brown said the exercises were to be held again next year, and then become a biennial event.

[Ryan Ruck]

North Korea Threatens To 'Wipe Out' US Forces In Case Of War

North Korea threatened to 'mercilessly wipe out' US forces in case of war during a national meeting to mark leader Kim Jong-Il's 42 years' work at the ruling party, according to a ruling party report carried by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

The threat came as North Korea was reportedly preparing to test-fire a long-range missile despite strong protests from the United States and its allies.

Choe Thae Bok, a ranking Workers Party official, said Washington is 'hell-bent on provocations of war of aggression' in the report to mark the 42nd anniversary of Kim's start at the party, KCNA said.

'If the enemies ignite a war eventually, the Korean army and people will mercilessly wipe out the aggressors and give vent to the deep-rooted grudge of the nation,' Choe was quoted as telling the meeting.

North Koreans are customarily advised to watch the televised event, according to Seoul officials who cautiously questioned a news report that had linked the notice to a possible missile launch.

Japanese and South Korean media said North Korea is planning a missile test for this weekend.

South Korea's Yonhap news agency quoted an unnamed source as saying the missile launch could take place either Sunday or Monday.

But as of today, North Korea has not been confirmed yet to have fueled the missile at a launch pad in the remote northeast of the country, the final step before a test-firing, Agence France-Presse reported.