Article: China's Newest Stealth Fighter Flies

[Ryan Ruck]

J-XX Stealthy Fighter Aircraft

According to the reports of the Jane's Defence Weekly, China has already launched its next generation stealthy fighter aircraft programme, and Shenyang Aircraft Industry Co. (SAC) has been selected to head research and development of a new fighter for the PLA Air Force (PLAAF).

PROGRAMME

According to the report from Jane's, development of the subsystems including the engine and weapon suite for the next generation fighter, which was codenamed by the Western intelligence as J-XX, has been underway for some time. Images of the concepts show a twin-engine aircraft sharing some design traits with Lockheed Martin's stealthy F/A-22 "Raptor" multirole fighter such as the internal carriage of its weapons.

Not too much public information about the programme is available at the moment. The aircraft, which could be designated as J-13 or J-14, is still going through initial concept work, the same stage as the USAF Advanced Tactical Fighter (ATF) programme in the early 1980s, which later led to the F/A-22 Raptor. Sources within China's confirmed that the SAC is looking at a twin-engine, single-seat, single vertical tale fin design, but other design proposals has yet been ruled out.

As China has developed close ties with Russia's aerospace industry and has license produced many planes of formal Soviet designs, it can be predicted that the J-XX would include some, if not many Russian technologies and designs. China has been offered a 'joint development and production' of a new fifth-generation fighter by Russia -LFI. Russia has been trying to sell this concept both to China and India for some time, but neither of them has committed fully yet. According to Russian resources, the LFI will be able to counter U.S. second fifth-generation Joint Strike Fighter (JSF).

Stealth and thrust vectoring are two must-have features in all aircraft being designed in the 21st century. If is not clear that how much progress Chinese designers have made in these areas, and Chinese aircraft industry may have to take Western/Israeli/Russian helps to make the J-XX truly fourth-generation (or fifth-generation using the Russian standards). Once introduced, the J-12's immediate rival will be U.S. F/A-22, JSF and India's MCA (Medium Combat Aircraft).

[Ryan Ruck]

J-XX 4th Generation Fighter Aircraft

China’s two major fighter aircraft manufacturers, Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC) and Chengdu Aircraft Industry Co. (CAC), are both working on advanced 4th-generation fighter designs that could enter the PLAAF service as early as 2015. While Shenyang has been engaged in a brand new F/A-22-class stealth fighter design known as J-12, Chengdu has been focusing its development effort on an enlarged twin-engine, stealth version of its J-10 fighter possibly designated J-13. Both development projects are believed to have benefited from Russian aviation and weapon technologies.

The Chinese aviation industry began the preliminary research for China’s 4th generation fighter programme in the mid-1990s. In 1998 the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) reported that an advanced F-22-class twin-engine stealth fighter known as J-12 was under development at SAC. Later in 2003 an Internet source photo revealed a fighter mockup for wind tunnel test which may be linked to the J-12 project. As more details of the fighter began to emerge, it was understood that the fighter will also be fitted with an internal weapon bay and possibly active phased array radar.

Considering China’s records in combat aircraft development, a project like the J-12 may prove challenging. It will involves technology advancement in a number of fields including materials, high-performance aviation engine, electronics, flight control software, and stealth technologies. A project of this scale will also require huge amount of investment and considerable knowledge of complex project and manufacturing management. While China may be able to benefit from some “off-the-shelf” dual-use technologies available in the commercial market, it will almost definitely seek assistance from its traditional military technology suppliers such as Russia and Israel. However, none of these two countries possess the experience of developing an advance fighter of this class.


AVIC-1 Wind Tunnel Model: A video footage by AVIC-1 during 2004 Zhuhai Air Show revealed a fighter model for wind tunnel testing with evident stealth features




Advanced Fighter Cockpit and HMS: Images of advanced fighter cockpit and helmet-mounted sight (HMS) being tested by Chinese engineers have been speculating on the Chinese Internet, illustrating China's rapid development of modern cockpit technologies

Russian Sukhoi Company (JSC), which has developed close ties with Shenyang over the licensed co-production of its Su-27SK fighter as J-11, has been reportedly working with Shenyang in developing the next-generation fighter technology and sub-systems. Although Russia has yet been able to develop an operational stealth fighter, the J-12 project may benefit from its technologies in two particular areas: thrust vectoring engine and stealth design. China may also seek potential partners from Russia, Israel and Europe to co-develop avionics and weapon suites for its 4th-generation fighter aircraft.

Following the successful development of the J-10 fighter, Chengdu and its subordinated 611 Aircraft Design Institute began to work on an enlarged twin-engine version of the J-10 to compete with SAC J-12 project for the PLAAF’s 4th generation fighter programme. The new fighter, which was reportedly designated J-13, inherited the J-10’s canard delta design and resembles the Russian Mikoyan MiG MFI (Project 1.44) fifth-generation fighter demonstrator in many aspects. The J-13 design is less radical in terms of design and technology compared to the Shenyang J-12, and therefore may stand a better chance of becoming successful.

It was reported that Russian MAPO-MIG has been working with Chengdu since the late 1990s to develop a new generation fighter based on the J-10 design. The J-13 may be powered by two improved AL-41 turbofan engines with thrust-vectoring nozzles and possibly supersonic cruise capability too, giving a maximum take-off weight of 20t. If this is proven to be true, the J-13 will be a high-performance heavyweight fighter superior to the European EF-2000 Typhoon and French Rafale, though it may not be as capable as the F-22 Raptor.




J-13 Artist Impression: Computer-generated artist impression of the Chengdu J-13 stealth fighter

[Ryan Ruck]

Chinese Navy Requires Supercruising Fighter

A supercruising combat aircraft is a high priority of the Chinese navy, the country's top admiral says in a revealing official interview that gives strong clues of perceived shortcomings and future directions for the maritime force.

Adm. Wu Shengli also says China must step up work on precision missiles that can overcome enemy defenses, and the nation should move faster in developing large combat surface ships—probably meaning the aircraft carrier program that looks increasingly imminent (AW&ST Jan. 5, p. 22).

Wu's demand for supercruise—supersonic flight without afterburner—hints that such performance will be available from the next Chinese fighter, sometimes called the J-XX.

"One possibility is that the J-XX is being designed for supercruise and that Wu is trying to build support for a naval version of the aircraft," says Richard Bitzinger, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

The design of the J-XX is unknown. It could be a new aircraft or quite possibly a development of the J-10, a fighter now entering service.

The J-10's configuration is similar to that of the Eurofighter Typhoon, which the manufacturer says can supercruise at Mach 1.5, although it is likely to be somewhat slower with a useful external load.

For the Chinese navy, one advantage of supercruising would be the ability to cover a large defensive area in less time—quite useful if the imagined target is a U.S. carrier group at long range.

Importantly, Wu lists a supercruising fighter among a series of technological demands that all look quite achievable for the Chinese navy over the next decade or so, suggesting that he does not regard such flight performance as a pie in the sky.

"Sophisticated equipment is the key material basis for winning a regional naval war," says the admiral, evidently referring to the possibility of a confrontation in the Taiwan Strait. "We must accelerate and promote steps to work on key weapons.

"We must develop new-generation weapons such as large surface combat ships, stealthy long-endurance submarines, supercruising combat aircraft, precision long-range missiles that can penetrate defenses, as well as deep-diving, fast and intelligent torpedoes, and electronic combat equipment offering compatibility and commonality."

[Ryan Ruck]

China Promises New, Advanced Fighter

Nov 24, 2009

China has the resources and technology--some of it obtained quasi-legally and illegally--to build a fifth-generation fighter, say U.S. Air Force and intelligence officials. But Beijing's aerospace industry may be missing key skills needed for it to match the performance of advanced, Western-built combat aircraft.

What neither Beijing nor the Western defense community yet knows is whether Chinese technicians can generate the systems engineering and integration capabilities required to actually build in large production numbers and arm advanced aircraft with features similar to those of the aging B-2 and F-22 or the newer but less stealthy F-35 (AW&ST Nov.16, p. 26).

"You need a combination of the right shape, structural design, surface coatings, aerodynamic performance and flight control system," says a U.S. Air Force official. "It's not magic, but there's still a lot of art in it."

It remains to be determined if the People's Liberation Army Air Force (Plaaf) will pursue a fighter design optimized for low observability or how much it will be willing to trade in terms of performance, supportability and delivery schedule.

The requirement--dubbed J-XX by the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence in 1997--may well seek a more "balanced" approach to stealth, likely focusing on front-quadrant radar-cross-section reduction and the use of reapplicable coatings, rather than pursuing an all-aspect design. A twin-engine delta-canard concept has previously been suggested to be the general design approach.

While China is unlikely to field a platform with F-22-like capabilities within 10 years--as claimed by the Plaaf's deputy chief, Gen. He Weirong--a new fighter is in development and may soon make its first flight, say Chinese aerospace industry and U.S. intelligence officials.

The U.S. intelligence official, a veteran analyst of China's airpower, summarizes his view of the nation's access to advanced technologies. "Between legal, quasi-legal [diverted] and espionage-based tech transfer, I'm sure China has obtained most of the data available on how we build our stealthy aircraft structures and the materials involved," he says. "They also have taken full advantage of our open patent system, our open engineering undergrad and grad schools, our publish-or-perish academic promotion process and the ease with which an integrated, centralized [government] can thwart artificial, social-democratic distinctions between military, police, civil and commercial data."

Aging F-22 and B-2 designs are another factor. They have given Chinese researchers more than 20 years to chase down those technologies. The B-2 has already gone through its first service-life-extension program.

"[With] what they've gotten from us, Japan, [South Korea], Russia and the European Union, they have access to all they need data-wise," the intelligence official says. "Their only limitations are investment cash and the ability to work out production process engineering and integration, which we still do better than anyone. [Those skills] really reflect corporate culture and learning curve more than anything readily documented, although ISO 9000/9001/9002 and similar software documentation standardization are making that easier to steal, too."

China's J-10 strike fighter, which has an F-16-like capability, is considered the country's best indigenous effort so far in terms of engines, avionics and aerodynamic performance. It began large-scale service in 2006. China's military aircraft are profiting from knowledge about commercial composite-structure production garnered from building components for Boeing airliners and space materials.

The original J-10 work drew heavily on the Israeli Lavi program--Tel Aviv has generally proved a valuable source of technology for Beijing--and has benefited from Russian support.

Beijing also has used the J-11B development of the Russian Su-27 Flanker as the platform to introduce indigenous avionics, fire-control radar, weapons and powerplant. Further iterations of the systems produced for the J-11B may be earmarked for the J-XX.

The J-11B is designed to carry the PL-12 medium-range active radar-guided missile, rather than the export model of the Russian R-77 (AA-12 Adder). The PL-12 development reflects the overall improvement in China's national guided-weapons technology base, even if the program had significant Russian input.

"Right now, the only arms race China is really facing is with India, and [Beijing is] winning," the intelligence official says.

While that contest has no direct impact on the U.S., at least some Pentagon planners believe it will accelerate China's large-force, war-making capability, while the U.S. is focusing its spending and technology development on limited-war and insurgency-type conflicts.

"In my view, we're wasting billions on slow- and low-flying MC-12s [surveillance aircraft], MQ-1/-9 [remotely piloted aircraft], C-27J [light transports] and less-than-world-class, lowest-common-denominator, design-to-price [F-35] JSF," the intelligence official says.

A veteran combat pilot with insight into the F-22 program says building an advanced fighter, even if it did not match the F-22's or F-35's performance, could be a serious threat to the U.S. stealth fleet if the new aircraft are built in large enough numbers to overcome an allied force through sheer attrition.

"Those fourth-generation fighters, when pitted against 187 F 22s in large numbers, will eventually wear [the stealth fighters] down," says an aerospace industry official. "They only carry eight air-to-air missiles. They don't have to match Raptor capabilities if they build an advanced fighter in F-35 numbers."

It would not be considered an impossible technological leap for China to build an F-35-like fighter with some stealth capabilities in 10 years. "They could throw a lot of resources at it," a senior U.S. Air Force official says. "But we've yet to see a real organic design from China. So far, they've leveraged Russian or Israeli technology. They don't have a lot of radar engineering capability, nor experience in integrating a complete structure. That's the big question.

"You can paste on some [signature-lowering] capabilities, but changing a very large target to a large target doesn't buy you too much operational advantage," the Air Force official says. "You need very small stealth-signature numbers."

The F-22 had an all-aspect requirement of -40 dBsm., while the F-35 came in at -30 dBsm. with some gaps in coverage.

The idea that the J-10 will serve as a technological springboard is considered unlikely.

"I believe the Chinese have a difficult road if their design is tied to the J-10," he says. "As you know, significantly reduced signature requires more then coatings. The J-10 has many features which may produce the desired aerodynamic effects but would be a negative for signature reduction. I am sure they can somewhat reduce the signature with a few design tweaks and coatings, but the operational relevance would be questionable.

"They can certainly refine their composite-structure competency, and basic [stealth] coatings are widely known and available," the Air Force official says. "The milestone will be when we see more refined shaping."

[vector7]

Look familiar?

SHENYANG J-XX STEALTHY FIGHTER AIRCRAFT



Northrop Grumman YF-23

F-22 and F-35...

Wonder if they already have acquired parts of those plans?

[vector7]

Bump

[Ryan Ruck]

New Chinese Fighter Jet Expected By 2018: U.S. Intelligence

May 21, 2010
China is building an advanced combat jet that may rival within eight years Lockheed Martin Corp's F-22 Raptor, the premier U.S. fighter, a U.S. intelligence official said.

The date cited for the expected deployment is years ahead of previous Pentagon public forecasts and may be a sign that China's rapid military buildup is topping many experts' expectations.

"We're anticipating China to have a fifth-generation fighter ... operational right around 2018," Wayne Ulman of the National Air and Space Intelligence Center testified on Thursday to a congressionally mandated group that studies national security implications of U.S.-China economic ties.

"Fifth-generation" fighters feature cutting-edge capabilities, including shapes, materials and propulsion systems designed to make them look as small as a swallow on enemy radar screens.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates had said last year that China "is projected to have no fifth-generation aircraft by 2020" and only a "handful" by 2025.

He made the comments on July 16 to the Economic Club of Chicago while pushing Congress to cap F-22 production at 187 planes in an effort to save billions of dollars in the next decade.

Ulman is China "issues manager" at the center that is the U.S. military's prime intelligence producer on foreign air and space forces, weapons and systems. He said China's military was eyeing options for possible use of force against Taiwan, which Beijing deems a rogue province.

The People's Liberation Army, as part of its Taiwan planning, also is preparing to counter "expected U.S. intervention in support of Taiwan," he told the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

He said the PLA's strategy included weakening U.S. air power by striking air bases, aircraft carrier strike groups and support elements if the U.S. stepped in.

Attacks against U.S. "basing infrastructure" in the western Pacific would be carried out by China's air force along with an artillery corps' conventional cruise missile and ballistic missile forces, he said outlining what he described as a likely scenario.

He described China as a "hard target" for intelligence-gathering and said there were a lot of unknowns about its next fighter, a follow-on to nearly 500 4th generation fighters "that can be considered at a technical parity" with older U.S. fighters.

"It's yet to be seen exactly how (the next generation) will compare one on one with say an F-22," Ulman told the commission. "But it'll certainly be in that ballpark."

Lockheed Martin, the Pentagon's No. 1 supplier by sales, is in the early stages of producing another fifth-generation fighter, the F-35. Developed with eight partner countries in three models with an eye to achieving economies of scale and export sales, it will not fly as fast nor as high as the F-22.

Gates has argued that the United States enjoys a lopsided advantage in fighters, warships and other big-ticket military hardware. Some U.S. congressional decisions on arms programs amount to overkill, out of touch with "real-world" threats and today's economic strains, he said in two speeches on the issue this month.

"For example, should we really be up in arms over a temporary projected shortfall of about 100 Navy and Marine strike fighters relative to the number of carrier wings, when America's military possesses more than 3,200 tactical combat aircraft of all kinds?" Gates said on May 8.

"Is it a dire threat that by 2020 the United States will have only 20 times more advanced stealth fighters than China?" he added at the Eisenhower presidential library in Abilene, Kansas.

Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary, discounted the gap between the timelines cited by Gates and Ulman. He declined to comment on whether China had made enough progress since last July to change intelligence on the next fighter's debut.

Richard Fisher, an expert on the Chinese military at the private International Assessment and Strategy Center, said Gates' decision to end F-22 production is proving to be "potentially very wrong."

"We will need more F-22s if we are going to adequately defend our interests," he said in an interview on Thursday at the hearing.

Bruce Lemkin, a U.S. Air Force deputy undersecretary for ties to foreign air forces, told the commission he had visited Taiwan twice in his official capacity and that the capabilities of Taiwan's aging F-16s, also built by Lockheed, were not "keeping up."

Whether to meet Taiwan's request for advanced F-16 fighters or upgrade the old ones was still under review by the Obama administration, he said before Ulman spoke.

[Ryan Ruck]

These are rumored to be photos of China's new J-XX/J-20 stealth fighter. No idea if they are legit or not but wanted to pass them on.

[Ryan Ruck]

Another one:

[Ryan Ruck]

Found a couple more:

[Ryan Ruck]

Here's a comparison drawing someone did up. From left to right: F-22, J-20, PAK FA T-50



And another photo:

[AGEUSAF]

Nice looking bird. I wonder how many thousand of those they are gonna build over night.

[vector7]

China's J-20 Stealth Fighter In Taxi Tests

Jan 3, 2011

By Bill Sweetman Washington

China’s first known stealth aircraft just emerged from a secret development program and was undergoing high-speed taxi tests late last week at Chengdu Aircraft Design Institute’s airfield. Said to be designated J-20, it is larger than most observers expected—pointing to long range and heavy weapon loads. Its timing, Chengdu’s development record and official statements cast doubt on U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates’s 2009 prediction (in support of his decision to stop production of the Lockheed Martin F-22) that China would not have an operational stealth aircraft before 2020. The debut of the J-20 was announced in a November 2009 interview on Chinese TV by Gen. He Weirong, deputy commander of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force. The general said a “fourth-generation” fighter (Chinese terminology for a stealth fighter) would be flown in 2010-11 and be operational in 2017-19. The J-20 is a single-seat, twin-engine aircraft, bigger and heavier than the Sukhoi T-50 and the F-22. Comparison with ground-service vehicles points to an overall length of 75 ft. and a wingspan of 45 ft. or more, which would suggest a takeoff weight in the 75,000-80,000-lb. class with no external load. That in turn implies a generous internal fuel capacity. The overall length is close to that of the 1960s General Dynamics F-111, which carries 34,000 lb. of fuel. The J-20 has a canard delta layout (like Chengdu’s J-10) with two canted, all-moving vertical stabilizers (like the T-50) and smaller canted ventral fins. The stealth body shaping is similar to that of the F-22. The flat body sides are aligned with the canted tails, the wing-body junction is clean, and there is a sharp chine line around the forward fuselage. The cant angles are greater than they are on the Lockheed Martin F-35, and the frameless canopy is similar to that of the F-22. The engines are most likely members of the Russian Saturn AL-31F family, also used on the J-10. The production version will require yet-to-mature indigenous engines. The inlets use diverterless supersonic inlet (DSI) technology, first adopted for the F-35 but also used by Chengdu on the J-10B—the newest version of the J-10—and the Sino-Pakistani JF-17 Thunder. The main landing gears retract into body-side bays, indicating the likely presence of F-22-style side weapon bays ahead of them. The ground clearance is higher than on the F-22, which would facilitate loading larger weapons including air-to-surface munitions. Chinese engineers at the Zhuhai air show in November disclosed that newly developed air-to-ground weapons are now required to be compatible with the J-20. Features at the rear of the aircraft—including underwing actuator fairings, axisymmetrical engine exhausts and the ventral fins—appear less compatible with stealth, so the J-20 may not match the all-aspect stealth of the F-22. There are two possible explanations for this: Either the aircraft seen here is the first step toward an operational design, or China’s requirements do not place as much stress on rear-aspect signatures. The major open question at this point is whether the J-20 is a true prototype, like the T-50, or a technology demonstrator, with a status similar to the YF-22 flown in 1990. That question will be answered by whether, and how many, further J-20s enter flight testing in the next 12-24 months. Developing an effective multi-mission stealthy aircraft presents challenges beyond the airframe, because it requires a sensor suite that uses automated data fusion, emission control and low-probability-of-intercept data links to build an operational picture for the pilot without giving away the aircraft’s own location. A rapid development program would be a challenge for China’s combat aircraft industry, which is currently busy: The J-10B, FC-17 and Shenyang’s J-11B and carrier-based J-15 are all under development. However, the progress of China’s military aviation technology has been rapid since the first flight of the J-10 in 1996, owing to the nation’s growing economy and the push by the People’s Liberation Army for a modernized military force in all domains. Before the J-10, China’s only indigenous production combat aircraft were the Shenyang J-8 and Xian JH-7, reflecting early-1960s technology from Russia and Europe. Engine development has lagged airframe development, with reports that the Shenyang WS-10 engine, slated to replace Russian engines in the J-11B, has been slow to reach acceptable reliability and durability levels. That may not be surprising, given that high-performance engine technology is founded on specialized alloys and processes that often have no other uses. (The existence of the J-11B, essentially a “bootleg” version of the Su-27, has been a strain on relationships between the Russian and Chinese industries.) Progress with avionics may be indicated by the advent of the J-10B, with new features that include a canted radar bulkhead (normally associated with an active, electronically scanned array antenna), an infrared search-and-track system, and housings for new electronic warfare antennas. One question that may go unanswered for a long time concerns the degree to which cyberespionage has aided the development of the J-20. U.S. defense industry cybersecurity experts have cited 2006—close to the date when the J-20 program would have started—as the point at which they became aware of what was later named the advanced persistent threat (APT), a campaign of cyberintrusion aimed primarily at military and defense industries and characterized by sophisticated infiltration and exfiltration techniques. Dale Meyerrose, information security vice president for the Harris Corp. and former chief information officer for the director of national intelligence, told an Aviation Week cybersecurity conference in April 2010 that the APT had been little discussed outside the classified realm, up to that point, because “the vast majority of APT attacks are believed to come from a single country.” Between 2009 and early 2010, Lockheed Martin found that “six to eight companies” among its subcontractors “had been totally compromised—e-mails, their networks, everything,” according to Chief Information Security Officer Anne Mullins. The way in which the J-20 was unveiled also reflects China’s use and control of information technology to support national interests. The test airfield is located in the city of Chengdu and is not secure, with many public viewing points. Photography is technically forbidden, but reports suggest that patrols have been permitting the use of cell phone cameras. From Dec. 25‑29, these images were placed on Chinese Internet discussion boards, and after an early intervention by censors—which served to draw attention to the activity—they appeared with steadily increasing quality. Substantial international attention was thereby achieved without any official disclosures. Photo Credit: Via Chinese Internet

[vector7]

What China's New J-20 Stealth Fighter Means for the F-35 JSF and F/A-18E/F Super Hornet

Air Power Australia - Australia's Independent Defence Think Tank

Air Power Australia NOTAM
31^st December, 2010
© 2010 C. L. Mills

First prototype of the Chengdu J-XX or J-20 Very Low Observable (VLO) fighter aircraft. A large high performance design with excellent stealth shaping, this aircraft is expected to be become the centrepiece of the PLA-AF fighter fleet. It combines supersonic cruise, large range and persistence, and stealth (Chinese Internet).

The latest monograph by Dr Kopp, as published in the peer reviewed APA Analyses journal, is an in-depth and broad scientific study of what exponential growth laws - like Moore's Law - mean for current and future combat aircraft. It is, and intentionally so, a scientific paper, and confines itself to the technical dimensions of this problem. What do exponential growth laws mean for Western nations in terms of strategy and national policy? That is the subject explored in this NOTAM¹.

Let us start with a familiar situation and one for which you already know the end-result. Suppose you are driving down a road on a dark night, not looking in the rear-view mirror, but admiring the fancy digital display of the dashboard, with the moving GPS map, the instruments telling you about speed, range, altitude, engine condition, cabin temperature, while the iPod interface slips soothing songs into your brain. The mobile phone rings and you reach to tap the control column to take the call. This is a fatal distraction because a sharp turn appears ahead, you miss it, and in an instant, there is a violent disintegration of these marvellous technological displays as the car leaves the road and rolls end-over-end down a steep embankment.

Over the past few days, images have emerged of the new Chinese Stealth Fighter, the J-XX or the J-20. On the 29th January 2010, the Russians first flew the PAK-FA, and the Su-35S, which first flew on 28th February 2008, is expected to achieve IOC in early 2011. Meanwhile, back at the US fighter-farm, the JSF which first flew on 15th December 2006, has experienced continuing difficulties with the STOVL version and is likely to enter a substantial re-design programme in 2011, adding more years and even greater costs to the already frequently-extended development phase.

By the time the F-35 makes IOC (if it ever does) it will be, to use that well-known technical term, ‘toast’.

Even if an extensive redesign produces an aircraft that meets the March 2000 Joint Operational Requirements Document (JORD), the “Su-35S, PAK-FA, J-20 world” of 2015-2020 will be much different than the “Su-27S, MiG-29 world” that existed when the JORD was first released. Most astonishingly, when gross cost overruns forced a review of the program, the JORD specifications were not updated to encompass the 2015 - 2025 air combat environment. Instead, during the ensuing process that followed the Nunn-McCurdy Breach, the Joint Requirements Oversight Council (JROC) re-verified and re-validated the F-35 JSF Operational Requirements Document of March 13, 2000, as representing a capability “essential to the national security” (refer JROCM 078-10 dated May 20, 2010). And people wonder why some refer to the Nunn McCurdy process as the “codification of silliness, if not mendacity and misfeasance”?

And if the F-35 is ‘toast’ that makes the F/A-18E/F ‘cinders’ – this 1985 ‘old wine in a new bottle’ aircraft has some fancy new electronics, but none that will save it from destruction in combat. Like the distracted car driver, the crews of the F-35 and the F/A-18E/F can be fully informed by watching the dancing digital displays, but they cannot avoid the inevitable crash.

Why has this calamity fallen on the US fighter design teams?

Perhaps the answer can be found in that now infamous phrase: ‘Manoeuvre is irrelevant – let the missiles do the turning!’. These simple words speak volumes about what is deeply flawed in the US development of those aircraft on which it will depend to protect its sovereignty, keep its fleets on top of the water, and project power. The Internet source has now been censored, but the attitude that led to this statement remains deeply ingrained.

Firstly, it assumes that the aircraft firing the missiles will have survived to the point where they achieve a firing solution and get their missiles in-flight. A fundamental tenet of combat is that you must be alive to enter the fight. The superior kinematics of the Su-35S, the PAK-FA and the J-20, the signature reduction of the latter two aircraft, and the (highly likely – we have not seen the final list) improved sensor suites of all three, severely reduce the F-35 and F/A-18E/F’s chance of even making it first to a weapon release point. Each of the threat aircraft will be operating at times more than two miles higher and 700+ knots faster, giving their ‘look-down, shoot-down’ missiles substantial kinematic ‘shoot-first’ advantages in the engagement.

We need to make special mention of the profound effect that signature reduction will have on future air combat, as the stealth ‘catch-up’ by the Russian and Chinese aircraft has grave consequences for the USA, as it has a tactical advantage to lose and nothing to gain.The situation is best shown by injecting ‘reasonable and representative’ figures into the mathematically exact radar-range equations to get an indication of the magnitude of the change to the operating environment.

AESA RADAR DETECTION RANGES – INDICATIVE VALUES

TARGETS INTERCEPTORS ↓

Su-35S RCS ~ 3 m2

PAK-FA / J-20 Best Case RCS ~0.1 m2

PAK-FA / J-20 Worst Case RCS ~0.001 m2

F-35 / APG-81

~82.8 NMI

~35.4 NMI

~11.2 NMI

F/A18-E/F / APG-79

~111.9 NMI

~47.8 NMI

~15.1 NMI

Aircraft such as the PAK-FA and the J-20, with ‘Low Observability’ from the front aspects, can be guided by (say) a HF-band Skywave radar and SATCOM system, or VHF-band GCI radar, into a merge ‘cold nose’ and passive, but still searching on IRST and ESM. Having an aircraft first appear on the F-35 APG-81 at 20 NMI would be a very nasty surprise, demonstrated by ‘first-look, first-shot, first-kills’ by the enemy. But back to the ‘Let the missiles do the turning’ statement.

Secondly, and perhaps more dangerously, the statement assumes that the missiles ‘turning’ will actually achieve a terminal missile-to-aircraft distance where the fuses detonate the warhead. Nothing is mentioned about these missiles being kinematically defeated during the ingress, and/or being confused by electronic countermeasures such as cross-eye-jamming, and/or being seduced by towed or released decoys, let alone rendered blind by the effects of the respectable stealth technology employed in the T-50 PAK-FA and J-20.

The Sukhois' missile countermeasures are far superior to those employed in the F-35, probably because nobody believed the stealth advantage would be penetrated and that countermeasures, like manoeuvre, would therefore be ‘irrelevant’. However, it is reasonable to expect these countermeasures to be included in the large and spacious PAK-FA and J-20 airframes, both of which will have a credible stealth capability.

The third deadly mis-assessment is that, with the missiles doing the turning and presumably the killing, egress from the fight will be a leisurely affair, with the pilots congratulating themselves on their kills. When the enemy has a first-shot and first kill advantage, and our missiles miss because of effective opposing countermeasures and genuine stealth technology, the truth is starker. When our people fly aircraft not designed for high Mach and with the prodigious fuel flows required to offset enormous drag at high speed, an enemy with a 500 - 700 knot closure rate and internal fuel reserve advantage will quickly run-down and dispatch the survivors. If the aircraft are separated at 50 NMI when the egress is started, it only takes 6 minutes with an over-take speed of 500 KTAS for the aggressors to reach guns-range, less for a WVR missile shot. As shown above, with signature reduction in the PAK-FA and the J-20, the chase-distances, fuel requirements and run-down times will, most likely, be considerably less.

So, why have these non-viable US designs been allowed to persist, and the corollary question, why has the production of the USA’s only aerodynamically and kinematically competitive fighter, the F-22A Raptor, been killed?

The answers can be found in Dr Kopp’s comprehensive paper. Observing the seemingly inexorable development of high-tech boxes, as shown by examples such as Moore’s Law, seems to have led US military capability planners and developers, and US air combat fighter development in particular, into a deadly evolutionary trap:

“All we need is to employ our (temporary) technological advantage into systems that ‘let the missiles do the turning’. Since ‘manoeuvre is irrelevant’, we don’t need to turn our attention to designs that make our aircraft fly faster, further, longer, higher, and in combat, able to change energy state, attitude and location rapidly to be the first to get to a firing position, or to avoid incoming missiles”

What turns this intellectual sloth into a toaster, is that eventually the enemy, applying the same exponential growth laws, only this time faster and with a much reduced learning time, catches up and then surpasses the efforts of the USA. Even more dangerous is their use of multi-spectral sensors employed across Infra-Red, Ku-Band, X-Band, L-Band, VHF and HF frequencies.

The other dangerous illusion is that these exponential growth laws also apply to other elements of air combat design, such as sensor ranges, power-aperture, engine thrust, maneuverability, controllability and, consequently, agility.

They don’t, because in these areas of design, the fundamental and more enduring Laws of Physics apply.

Over-estimation of a capability leads to an under-estimation of the likely losses in future air combat. As Dr Kopp points out in his paper, exponentially improving internal electronics does not result in exponentially increasing sensor range – at best an incremental advantage is gained. When the opponent introduces a significant stealth capability, as seen in the T-50 PAK-FA, then that incremental advantage rapidly erodes, driving combat from paradoxically perceived to be information dominated Beyond Visual Range engagements to agility dominated air combat engagements, whether in the close combat or Beyond Visual Range arenas.

The net result is that the Su-35S, the PAK-FA and the J-20 will, over their operational life, severely reduce the relative survivability and lethality of the F-35 and F/A-18E/F, and any other legacy fighters dressed up in new garb. Here is a table that shows the overall effect:

COMBAT EFFECTIVENESS RELATED TO COMBAT PRODUCTIVITY		LETHALITY
		LOW	HIGH
SURVIVABILITY	HIGH	MARGINALLY EFFECTIVE LOW PRODUCTIVITY (Lost a few, did not do much with the survivors)	HIGHLY EFFECTIVE HIGH PRODUCTIVITY (Lost a few, did a lot with the survivors)
	LOW	INEFFECTIVE NO PRODUCTIVITY (Lost a lot, did little with the few survivors)	MARGINALLY EFFECTIVE LOW PRODUCTIVITY (Lost a lot, did some with the few survivors)
Table 1: Combat Effectiveness: The ability of air combat aircraft to deliver the intended combat result in a combat environment.

To conclude with a familiar scene, the F-35 and F/A-18E/F pilots of the future will have exquisitely crafted digital cockpits which will give them a crystal-clear picture of their combat environment, such that they know with unprecedented precision the moment at which they will die – assuming that Russian and Chinese stealth technology can be easily defeated.

And their opponents will have the same but a more enduring view, without such high and final costs, thanks to the inexorable merging of exponential growth laws and superior aerodynamic/kinematic design into their air combat machines.

Chengdu J-XX [J-20] Stealth Fighter Prototype
A Preliminary Assessment
Technical Report APA-TR-2011-0101



Chengdu J-20 stealth fighter. This design outperforms the F/A-18E/F and F-35 JSF in every important respect (Chinese Internet).

[Ryan Ruck]

I think what you are seeing is distortion from the heat coming off the tarmac. If you notice, everything near the ground (like the runway signs) has a wavy look to it. Not to mention the poor air quality in China in general.

Also, many respected sources in the aviation community have agreed that this is the real deal.

[vector7]

J-20 Stealth Fighter Jet: 5 Facts About China's New Stealth Plane

Jan 5, 2011 – 12:58 PM

Text Size

Torie Bosch

The buzz on the Web today is all about leaked photos of China's new military toy, the J-20 stealth fighter jet. Both military enthusiasts and China observers are intrigued by the J-20 and eager for details.

Hard information is difficult to come by, since there are conflicting reports out of China on what might be the country's first fifth-generation fighter. Here's what we do know about the new stealth aircraft:


Photos posted online appear to show a prototype of China's first stealth fighter jet.

1. It's still being tested
The prototype J-20 was allegedly tested today on a runway in central China. It still has to be tested in the air, but observers think that that could happen soon -- maybe even Thursday.

2. China seems to want us to know that they have it
Pictures allegedly showing the J-20 were apparently leaked to some Chinese media this week, either by authorities or by people who sneaked in to see the plane. But it hardly seems like a coincidence that this news comes just ahead of U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates' visit to Beijing, scheduled to begin Sunday.

3. It will be years before it's operational
This is just the first J-20, and it could be a long time before they work the kinks out and others are made, skeptics say. Some even think that the plane shown in the pictures is just a mock-up. It could be 2018 or even later before the plane is ready to be deployed.

4. It's bigger than the U.S. stealth planes
From the pictures, it looks like the J-20 may be larger than the U.S. stealth planes. Some speculate that that would allow it to carry more and fly longer. But it probably still won't be able to compete with the F-22 Raptor, the United States' fifth-generation stealth plane.

5. It's part of China's new military
The country has apparently been investing heavily in new military equipment so it can remain competitive with the United States and Russia. According to reports, China has an aircraft carrier in the works and is also developing anti-ship ballistic missiles.

[vector7]

Leaked Images of China's J20 Stealth Fighter Don't Concern U.S. Military

Submitted by Michael Santo on 2011-01-05


Obama Refused To Give Speech In Front Of F-22

It was inevitable, most analysts said, that China would develop a stealth fighter, but leaked images of the so-called J-20 fighter seem to indicate it's closer than expected.




The images, posted on a number of websites, including the front page of Wednesday's Wall Street Journal, which said they appeared to show a Chinese J-20 stealth fighter prototype making a high-speed taxi test.

While a U.S. Navy official said on Wednesday that a Chinese stealth fighter is still years away, a high-speed taxi test is typically one of the last steps before an aircraft makes its maiden flight

The Journal added that many experts believed the J-20 photos to be authentic. Currently, the only operational stealth fighter in the world is Lockheed Martin’s F-22 Raptor.

Marine Col. Dave Lapan, a Pentagon spokesman, said, "It is not of concern that they are working on a fifth-generation fighter," since they are "still having difficulties with their fourth-generation fighter."

China's fourth generation fighters, of which there are approximately 500 known, are on par with older U.S. fighters, pre-F22 Raptor.

U.S. Vice Admiral David Dorsett, director of naval intelligence, said “It’s still not clear to me when it’s going to become operational. Developing a stealth capability with a prototype and then integrating that into a combat environment is going to take some time.”

The leaked images come at an interesting time. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is scheduled to travel to Beijing on Sunday.

[vector7]

U.S. downplays Chinese stealth fighter status

By Phil Stewart, Reuters January 5, 2011 10:02 AM



Armed soldiers gaurd this U.S. F117 Nighthawk Stealth Fighter at the Abbotsford International Airshow in this 2002 file photo. The U.S. is downplaying reports of China's own stealth fighter.

Photograph by: Ian Smith, Vancouver Sun FIles

WASHINGTON - China is still years away from being able to field a stealth aircraft, despite the disclosure of images indicating that it appears to have a working prototype, a U.S. Navy official said Wednesday.

The images have been posted on a number of websites and were published Wednesday on the front page of The Wall Street Journal, which said they appeared to show a Chinese J-20 stealth fighter prototype making a high-speed taxi test.

The disclosure of the photographs comes just days before U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is due to travel to Beijing on Sunday.

The pictures are likely to heighten U.S. concerns about China’s military buildup, including possible deployment in 2011 of its first aircraft carrier and a new anti-ship ballistic missile seen as a threat to U.S. aircraft carriers.

The Journal said many experts believed the J-20 photos were authentic and a strong indicator that China is making faster-than-expected progress in developing a rival to Lockheed Martin’s F-22 Raptor, the world’s only operational stealth fighter.

But U.S. Vice Admiral David Dorsett, director of naval intelligence, said deployment of the J-20 was years away.

Dorsett told reporters on Wednesday that the published photos left a lot of questions unanswered. He did not immediately vouch for their authenticity.

“It’s still not clear to me when it’s going to become operational,” he said. “Developing a stealth capability with a prototype and then integrating that into a combat environment is going to take some time.”
A U.S. intelligence official estimated in May that the J-20 could rival the F-22 Raptor within eight years.

The Raptor is the premier U.S. fighter, with cutting-edge ”fifth-generation” features, including shapes, materials and propulsion systems designed to make it appear as small as a swallow on enemy radar screens.

“We’re anticipating China to have a fifth-generation fighter ... operational right around 2018,” Wayne Ulman of the National Air and Space Intelligence Center testified in May before a congressionally mandated group.

Ulman said there were a lot of unknowns about China’s next-generation fighter, which would be a follow-up to nearly 500 fourth-generation fighters considered at a technical parity to older U.S. fighters.

“It’s yet to be seen exactly how (the fifth-generation) will compare one-on-one with, say, an F-22,” Ulman said.

Gates said in 2009 that China was not expected to have a fifth-generation aircraft by 2020 and no more than a handful by 2025.

[vector7]

‘China close to development of 5th-gen. stealth fighter’

JANUARY 05, 2011 23:28

China will soon test the J-20, a fifth-generation stealth fighter, in Chengdu, Sichuan province, the South China Morning Post said Wednesday.

The daily said a takeoff test had been conducted at an aircraft design institute in Chengdu last week.

Ping Ke Fu, vice general editor of the Canadian military magazine Kanhua Defense Review, told the Post that if weather conditions allow, a test flight will be conducted in several days. The jet lags behind the F-22 of the U.S. and the T-50 of Russia in stealth capability but will show significant capacity, he predicted.

The J-20 can go on a long distance mission via airborne fueling and carry many weapons, including cruise missiles. Ping said “The development of the J-20 means that the Chinese Air Force has passed the era when it only copied others.”

The Post said the development of the J-20 exceeds many experts’ expectations. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates had said that Beijing would not have a fifth-fifth generation fighter jet until 2020.

Chinese military expert Zhung Xiozuan told the People’s Daily, the official publication of the ruling Chinese Communist Party, and its sister paper on international affairs Huanqiu Times that the J-20 will become operational by 2018 after undergoing a test phase.

“The emergence of the J-20 is alarming the world,” Zhung said. “The independent development of a fifth-generation fighter jet means that China has joined the league of top players in the global aviation industry.”

Photos of what are claimed to be those of the J-20 are circulating in Chinese Internet sites. The official Xinhua News Agency filed a report Wednesday titled “Foreign media’s diverse speculations on China’s new fighter jet.” American and Russian media carried reports on the new Chinese fighter jet.

The Xinhua report, however, neither confirmed nor denied the development of a fifth-generation fighter jet by China.

Ni Rue Xung, a Shanghai-based military analyst, told the Post, “This plane appeared at the aircraft design institute in Chengdu, which military experts regularly monitor.”

[vector7]

Chinese jet fighter 'sighting' raises fears over region's military power balance

Image reportedly showing prototype of China's fifth generation J-20 stealth fighter has been circulating on the internet

Jonathan Watts in Beijing, and Julian Borger, diplomatic editor
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 5 January 2011 18.33 GMT

Photos leaked online appear to show a prototype of China's J-20 stealth fighter jet

A photograph of what is reported to be a new Chinese stealth fighter and "carrier-killer" missile has prompted concerns that a tilt in the balance of military power in the western Pacific towards China may come sooner than expected.

The emergence of the hi-tech weaponry - which would make it more difficult for the US navy and air force to project power close to Taiwan and elsewhere on China's coastline - comes at a politically sensitive time. Later this month, President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, will hold a summit in Washington aimed at patching up their differences after a niggling year in bilateral relations.

The photograph, of what appears to be a prototype J-20 jet undergoing runway tests, has been circulating on the internet since last week, fuelling speculation that China's fifth-generation fighter may fly ahead of forecast.

The defence ministry has yet to comment on the image, which seems to have been shot from long-distance near the Chengdu aircraft design institute. The photographer is also unknown, which has added to the mystery about its origins and authenticity as well as the motive of the distributor.

But defence analysts believe this is the first glimpse of the twin-engined, chiselled-nosed plane that mixes Russian engine technology with a fuselage design similar to that of the US air force's F-22 "stealth" fighter, which can avoid detection by radar.

If confirmed, it would be an impressive step forward for the Chinese air force, which until now has largely depended on foreign-made or designed planes. "I'd say these are, indeed, genuine photos of a prototype that will make its maiden flight very soon," said Peter Felstead, the editor of Jane's Defence Weekly.

The J20 is likely to be many years from deployment, but the US defence secretary, Robert Gates - who visits Beijing next week - may have to revise an earlier prediction that China will not have a fifth generation aircraft by 2020.

It is not the only challenge to US superiority in the region. China has refurbished a Ukranian aircraft carrier and wants to build its own by 2020.

A more immediate threat is posed by China's adaptation of an intermediate-range ballistic missile - the DF-21D - to target US aircraft carriers. This project is also further advanced than previously believed.

Admiral Robert Willard, the US navy's commander in the Pacific, warned last month that the weapon - nicknamed the "carrier killer' - had reached "initial operational capability". Faced by this threat US battle groups are likely to take a more withdrawn position if there is a standoff over Taiwan than they did in 1996, when the USS Nimitz sailed through the strait.

"The main implication of China deploying this system is that it would certainly make the US navy pause before deciding to project naval power into the South China Sea region during a time of tension," said Felstead.

But China's ambassador to the UK, Liu Xiaoming, said today that his country had no ambitions to rival US military power in the western Pacific region.

"We do not see ourselves as rivals to the US. We believe the US and China can work together in the region," Liu said, arguing there was a double standard in the west towards Chinese defence spending.

"When China carries out an exercise on its own territory there is a lot of attention, but when the United States comes all the way across the Pacific for exercises with its allies, no one speaks about it in the same way. There is a cold war mentality still. If you develop your defence capability, they [the Americans] are annoyed. But our defence construction is purely for self-defence. China's defence expenditure is still the lowest among the five permament members of the [UN] security council."

China's military advances worry many in the east Asian region who have benefited for decades from the US-policed status quo. In its latest defence white paper, Japan noted that China's military spending had nearly quadrupled over the past decade, while its own shrank by 4% due to a stagnant economy.

Officials in Tokyo have also expressed alarm at the increasingly confrontational approach of Chinese vessels in disputed fisheries. In Washington, rightwing thinktanks and commentators want Obama and Gates to apply diplomatic pressure on China to join the intermediate nuclear forces (INF) treaty and halt its missile buildup.

The photographs of the J20 jet are also likely to prompt calls for accelerated production of F35s - the US's next generation stealth fighter - to ensure air superiority.

The US remains the most potent military force in the western Pacific with 60,000 troops, a military airbase in Okinawa and one forward-deployed carrier fleet.

The US also outspends China on defence by a ratio of six to one, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Even so, while China's economy grows rapidly and the US remains sluggish, fears of a shift in the balance of power are likely to grow. It will not happen overnight and worldwide, but China appears to be steadily pushing the US back from its shores in a strategy know as "area denial".

The government has not confirmed this approach. Chinese nationalists want their country to be more assertive, but they say the priority is to improve defence of an increasingly wealthy coastal region.

The "area denial" strategy can be seen as China trying to manage its own market and routes to main trading partners such as South Korea and Japan.

"We don't need the US to be the policeman in the west Pacific area," said Song Xiaojun, a former naval officer who now edits military magazines.

"China's priority is to develop its near sea defence, because our economy is concentrated on the coast. But we have to reconsider the concept of 'near sea' to fit a modern age in which military threats can come from far away. China must improve its defences, but that does not mean we are a threat. Only arms merchants would say that to persuade the US to raise military spending. The US is far ahead," he said.