Predicting Conflict in 2012

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Predicting Conflict in 2012: Karabakh? Tajikistan? Uzbekistan? Iran?


December 28, 2011 - 12:19pm, by Joshua Kucera

• The Bug Pit
• Azerbaijan
• Nagorno Karabakh
• Russia
• Tajikistan
• Uzbekistan

Where is war most likely to break out in 2012? Between Georgia and Russia? Armenia and Azerbaijan? Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (or Tajikistan and itself)? News is thin this week between (non-Orthodox) Christmas and New Year's, so analysts and pundits are coming out with their predictions for 2012, and a lot of them touch on the possibility for conflict in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
The International Crisis Group's Louise Arbour, writing in Foreign Policy, lists Central Asia as one of "Next Year's Wars":

Tajikistan, for example, now faces a growing security threat from both local and external insurgencies, something it has almost zero capacity to contain. Adding to the country's woes, relations with neighboring Uzbekistan are at an all-time low, with their long-running water dispute no closer to resolution and occasionally deadly border incidents threatening to spark deeper violence.

She also mentions the U.S.'s tight relationship with Uzbekistan (though it's not clear how that would spark a war next year) and the regional divide in Kyrgyzstan.
And on the Caspian Intelligence blog, Alex Jackson is making guarded predictions for 2012 for the Caucasus. In Georgia, he says there is a greater risk of violence as next year's elections approach:

The run-up to the vote might also see a recurrence of the mysterious terror plots and bomb blasts which have periodically rattled Georgia since the war. The government insists they are orchestrated by Russia in a bid to destabilise the country (the new National Security Concept emphasises this); the opposition claims that they are false flag operations to spook the populace into voting for the UNM. The truth is probably somewhere in between, and either way we are likely to see more of them in 2012.

In Nagorno Karabakh, Jackson sees a continuation of tension, but no escalation:

Along the Line of Contact in Karabakh, the grim litany of skirmishes and deaths by sniper fire will rumble along. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are now deploying drones along the LoC, so expect the conflict to gain a new, aerial dimension (we’ve seen the first signs already). Sabre-rattling, military exercises and soaring defence budgets will all continue, but - as previously – don’t expect a new shooting war.

And recently, there have been a couple of reports from the region suggesting that preparations for war are actually underway. In Nezavisimaya Gazeta, Sergey Konovalov writes that Russia, bracing for a U.S./Israel war against Iran, will reinforce its position in Armenia -- and that means "breaking" the blockade Georgia has implemented against military transit to Armenia. The report is detailed, and cites sources in Russia's defense ministry, though still seems pretty improbable:

In April of this year, Georgia broke the agreement on the transit of military cargo to Armenia from Russia. Essentially, the Russian-Armenian grouping in the South Caucasus has been isolated. Supplies to the Russian army (POL, food, etc.) are delivered only by air and through direct agreements with Armenia which, in turn, purchases these products (gasoline, diesel fuel, kerosene) from Iran. A war in Iran will close this supply channel.
Lt.-Gen. Yury Netkachev, who for a long time served as the deputy commander of the Group of Russian Forces in the Transcaucasus and was personally engaged in work on the supply of arms and ammunition to combined armed forces and units (including the 102nd military base), believes that, in the event of a full-fledged war against Iran, Russia will be looking to securely supply the military facility through Georgia. “Perhaps, it will be necessary to break the Georgian transport blockade and supply the transport corridors leading to Armenia by military means,” said the expert.

On the other side of the Caspian, Uzbekistan is reportedly building up its forces on the border with Tajikistan, according to Asia Plus:

Residents of the Tajik northern province of Sughd are seriously concerned over a large accumulation of Uzbek military hardware at the Uzbek-Tajik border.
A person, who wanted to remain unnamed, phoned Asia-Plus Friday evening and said that “Uzbek authorities has drawn up military hardware, mostly tanks, to the Tajik border on the Istaravshan direction.” “Local residents are seriously concerned over the situation, especially against the backcloth of current relations with Uzbekistan,” he said.
A source in one of Tajik power-wielding structures has confirmed the information about the large accumulation of Uzbek military hardware – tanks and artillery – at the border with Tajikistan. “The military hardware was drew up to the border about a month ago after a skirmish between Tajik and Uzbek border guards on the Istaravshan stretch of Tajikistan’s common border with Afghanistan, when an Uzbek border guard was killed in exchange of fire,” the source added.

And in Komsomolskaya Pravda, Mikhail Barabanov of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies and Moscow Defense Brief discusses a recent claim by Chief of the General Staff Nikolai Makarov that the chance of Russia getting involved in a war have recently increased. (Translation by Johnson's Russia List):

Major Western countries and first and foremost the United States might intervene in conflicts on the territory of the former Soviet Union. It will serve as casus belli. The countries that comprise the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization belong to the zone of Russia's strategic interests... vital interests. Should the United States or other NATO countries decide to try and get a foothold there, it will create conditions for direct clashes between their armies and the Russian Armed Forces. Things might escalate into a nuclear exchange, you know.

Gulp! Let's hope that's a slim possibility. Taking all this into account, and in a cheap attempt to gain attention/page views, here is The Bug Pit's Official Top Three Likely Wars in 2012, listed in order of probability:
1. Armenia-Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. This is by far the most likely place for war to break out in the next ten years, and while it's unlikely that Azerbaijan is ready to attack just yet, there remains the possibility of a miscalculation or provocation.
2. A Tajikistan civil war. Things seemed to have calmed down after last winter's violence, but the underlying conditions that caused it -- disaffection by local leaders who think the central government isn't living up to the agreement they made to end the civil war in the 1990s -- still obtain. And Tajikistan has little capacity to contain any threats to its authority. While some resumption of violence would not be at all surprising, there's still little reason to think it would escalate into a full-fledged war.
3. Uzbekistan provocation against Tajikistan or Kyrgyzstan. There have been various skirmishes and disputes between Uzbekistan and its neighbors to the south and east, and Uzbekistan may try to flex its muscles if those much weaker neighbors do anything to upset Tashkent.
Honorable mention: Georgia/South Ossetia/Abkhazia/Russia, Kyrgyzstan civil war, naval conflict over Caspian Sea oil or natural gas, Iran-Azerbaijan, renewal of Islamist violence in Uzbekistan, attack on Iran having unpredictable spillover effects in the Caucasus.
It's important to note that none of these scenarios are at all likely. Even the most likely conflict, Nagorno Karabakh, would seem to have at most a five percent chance of flaring up this year. The rest are probably well under one percent. But a year ago, who would have guessed all the things that have happened in 2011? But if a conflict does break out in 2012, it will be genuinely surprising if it's NOT on the above list.
UPDATE: As this post was being written, Jackson posted his predictions on Turkmenistan:

Questions have been raised about whether Moscow would go to war to block a TCP being built. This seems unlikely: the threats seem more intended to spook potential investors and dissuade Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan. Expect more punitive measures by Russia if planning for construction goes ahead – blacklisting participating companies from working on projects in Russia, cutting commercial ties with Baku and Ashgabat, or clamping down on migrant labourers from both countries working in Russia.

[American Patriot]

December 28, 2011 Relations between Washington, Moscow are Good

André de Nesnera


Since the end of the Soviet Union 20 years ago, the United States and Russia have put many of their Cold War animosities behind them. They still have their differences, but they increasingly work together on a wide range of issues. VOA examines the current relationship between the former enemies.


The United States and Russia can still destroy each other at the push of a button and have thousands of missiles on land and at sea, armed with nuclear warheads.

But all those missiles are not pointed at each other’s cities as they were during the Cold War.

And with U.S. President Barack Obama making better relations with Russia a cornerstone of his foreign policy, both countries have ratified a new (START) treaty reducing long-range nuclear weapons.

Angela Stent is a Russia expert at Georgetown University. “It makes no sense to have all those warheads now, the Cold War is over," she said. "So we’ve drastically cut down the number of warheads and we are going to cut them down further. So I think it was very important to accomplish that.”

Stent says Moscow and Washington also have a key agreement on Afghanistan. “That is to say, we are transporting military transports over Russian territory, through the northern distribution network. And as the relationship with Pakistan becomes more and more difficult for the United States, this supply route is crucial for our ability to operate in Afghanistan,” she noted.

Moscow has also supported stronger United Nations sanctions against Iran and has cancelled the delivery of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles to Tehran. In addition, the Russian government did not oppose a no-fly zone over Libya.

But Stent says the two sides still disagree on U.S. plans for a missile defense system in Europe. “We have explained to them, our government, many, many times, this system has to do with concerns about the Iranians acquiring nuclear weapons, about the North Koreans, about countries that could threaten us all," she said. "It’s not aimed at Russia.”

Next March, Russian citizens go to the polls to elect a new president to succeed Dmitry Medvedev. The odds-on favorite to win is former president and current prime minister, Vladimir Putin.

Many experts are wondering whether a Putin presidency will be different from a Medvedev administration.

“No, I don’t think so, because what has been clear is that Putin was the decisive power, all the way through. So I don’t think, I don’t think it will change much,” Brent Scowcroft, former national security adviser stated.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Moscow Thomas Pickering says Russia is a country that demands attention - whoever runs it. “I think there are things that we don’t like about Russia - there will always be. There are things that Russia doesn’t like about us. But there are a number of things that we have in common," he said. "Including the necessity for coexistence.”

Americans will also go to the polls in November 2012 to elect a president. So there is the possibility that both countries will have new leaders to begin the year 2013.

[American Patriot]

US Warns Iran Against Closing Key Oil Passage

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December 28, 2011
Associated Press|by Ali Akbar Dareini and Tarek El-Tablawy


TEHRAN, Iran - The U.S. warned Iran on Wednesday it will not tolerate any disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran threatened to choke off the vital Persian Gulf oil transport route if Washington imposes sanctions targeting its crude exports.
The increasingly heated exchange raises new tensions in a standoff that has the potential to spark military reprisals and propel oil prices to levels that could batter a global economy already grappling with a European debt crisis.
Iran's navy chief boasted Wednesday that it would be "very easy" for his country's forces to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the passage at the mouth of the Persian Gulf through which a sixth of the world's oil passes daily. It was the second such threat in two days following a warning by Iran's vice president that Tehran was close

"Iran has comprehensive control over the strategic waterway," Adm. Habibollah Sayyari told state-run Press TV, as the country was in the midst of a 10-day military drill near the strategic waterway.
The comments drew a quick response from the U.S.
"This is not just an important issue for security and stability in the region, but is an economic lifeline for countries in the Gulf, to include Iran," Pentagon press secretary George Little said. "Interference with the transit or passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz will not be tolerated."
Separately, Bahrain-based U.S. Navy 5th Fleet spokeswoman said the Navy is "always ready to counter malevolent actions to ensure freedom of navigation."
Iran's threat to seal off the Gulf, surrounded by oil-rich Gulf states, underlines the depth of worry over the prospect that the Obama administration will go ahead with sanctions over its nuclear program that would severely hit its biggest revenue earner, oil. The sanctions themselves have raised worries that removing Iran's crude from the market will lead to a spike in oil prices.
Gulf Arab nations appeared ready to at least ease market tensions. A senior Saudi Arabian oil official told the AP that Gulf Arab nations are ready to step in to offset any potential loss of exports from Iran, which is the world's fourth largest oil producer. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment on the issue.
Saudi Arabia, which has been producing about 10 million barrels per day, has an overall production capacity of over 12 million barrels per day and is widely seen as the only OPEC member with sufficient spare capacity to offset major shortages. But Iran - the world's fourth largest producer - pumps about 4 million barrels per day, meaning that other Gulf states would also have to up their output to offset the decline.
What remains unclear is what routes the Gulf nations could take to bring that production to market if Iran goes through with its threats.
About 15 million barrels per day pass through the Hormuz Strait, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. There are some pipelines that could be tapped, but Gulf oil leaders, who met in Cairo on Dec. 24, declined to say whether they had discussed alternate routes or what they may be.
The Saudi comment, however, appeared to allay some concerns. The U.S. benchmark crude futures contract fell 77 cents in early morning trade on the New York Mercantile Exchange, but still hovered above $100 per barrel.
U.S. State Department spokesman Mark Toner played down the Iranian threats as "rhetoric," saying, "We've seen these kinds of comments before."
While many analysts believe that Iran's warnings are little more than posturing, they still highlight both the delicate nature of the oil market, which moves as much on rhetoric as supply and demand fundamentals.
Iran relies on crude sales for about 80 percent of its of its public revenues, and sanctions or an even pre-emptive measure by Tehran to withhold its crude from the market would already batter its flailing economy.
IHS Global Insight analyst Richard Cochrane said in a report issued Wednesday that markets are "jittery over the possibility" of Iran's blockading the strait. But, he said, "such action would also damage Iran's economy, and risk retaliation from the U.S. and allies that could further escalate instability in the region."
"Accordingly, it is not likely to be a decision that the Iranian leadership will take lightly," he said.
Earlier sanctions that have targeted the oil and financial sector have added new pressures to the country's already struggling economy. Government cuts in subsidies on key goods like food and energy have angered Iranians, stoking inflation while the country's currency is steadily depreciating.
The impetus behind the subsidies cut plan pushed through parliament by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was to reduce budget costs and would pass money directly to the poor to pay for their needs. But critics have pointed to it as another in a series of bad policy moves by the hardline president.
So far, Western nations have been unable to agree on sanctions targeting oil exports, even as they argue that Iran is trying to develop a nuclear weapon. Tehran maintains its nuclear program - already the subject of several rounds of sanctions - is purely peaceful.

The U.S. Congress has passed a bill banning dealings with the Iran Central Bank, a move that would heavily hurt Iran's ability to export crude. The bill could impose penalties on foreign firms that do business with Iran's central bank. European and Asian nations use the bank for transactions to import Iranian oil.
President Barack Obama has said he will sign the bill despite his misgivings. China and Russia have opposed such measures. A likely result of the sanctions would be that oil prices would at least temporarily spike to levels that could weigh heavily on the world economy.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz would hit even harder. Energy consultant and trader The Schork Group estimated in a report that crude would jump to above $140 per barrel. Conservatives in Iran claim global oil prices will jump to $250 a barrel should the waterway be closed.
By closing the strait, Iran may aim to send the message that its pain from sanctions will also be felt by others. But it has equally compelling reasons not to try.
The move would put the country's hardline regime straight in the cross-hairs of the world, including those nations that have so far been relative allies. Much of Iran's crude goes to Europe and to Asia.
"Shutting down the strait ... is the last bullet that Iran has and therefore we have to express some doubt that they would do this and at the same time lose their support from China and Russia," said analyst Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix in Switzerland.
Iran has adopted an aggressive military posture in recent months in response to increasing threats from the U.S. and Israel of possible military action to stop Iran's nuclear program.
The Iranian navy's exercises, which began on Saturday, involve submarines, missile drills, torpedoes and drones. A senior Iranian commander said Wednesday that the country's navy is also planning to test advanced missiles and "smart" torpedoes during the maneuvers.
The war games cover a 1,250-mile (2,000-kilometer) stretch of sea off the Strait of Hormuz, northern parts of the Indian Ocean and into the Gulf of Aden near the entrance to the Red Sea as a show of strength and could bring Iranian ships into proximity with U.S. Navy vessels in the area.
Moderate news website, irdiplomacy.ir, says the war games are intended to send a message to the West that Iran is capable of sealing off the waterway.
"The war games ... are a warning to the West that should oil and central bank sanctions be stepped up, (Iran) is able to cut the lifeblood of the West and Arabs," it said, adding that the West "should regard the maneuvers as a direct message."
---
El-Tablawy reported from Cairo. Associated Press writers Adam Schreck in Dubai and Abdullah Shihri in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, contributed.

[American Patriot]

Sanctions row: Iran says it will block all Gulf oil supplies

The Guardian
Baghdad, December 29, 2011


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First Published: 00:31 IST(29/12/2011)
Last Updated: 00:32 IST(29/12/2011)

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Iran threatened to stop the flow of oil through the strait of Hormuz if foreign sanctions were imposed on its crude exports because of its nuclear ambitions. Western tensions with Iran have increased since a report last month by the UN nuclear watchdog saying Tehran appeared to have been




working on designing an atomic bomb and may still be pursuing research to that end. Iran strongly denies this and says it is developing nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. Iran has expanded its nuclear activity despite four rounds of UN sanctions meted out since 2006 over its refusal to suspend sensitive uranium enrichment and open up to UN nuclear inspectors and investigators.
Many diplomats and analysts believe only sanctions targeting Iran's lifeblood oil sector may be painful enough to make it change course, but Russia and China - big trade partners of Tehran - have blocked such a move at the UN. Iran's warning came three weeks after EU foreign ministers decided to tighten sanctions over the UN report.
"If they [the west] impose sanctions on Iran's oil exports, then even one drop of oil cannot flow from the strait of Hormuz," Iran's first vice-president, Mohammad Reza Rahimi, said.
Oil price drops near $100 a barrel
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, as Saudi Arabia said it will offset any loss of oil from a threatened Iranian blockade of a crucial tanker route in the Middle East. In New York benchmark crude fell $1.15 to $100.19 a barrel. Brent crude fell 90 cents to $108.37 a barrel in London.

[American Patriot]

(Reuters) - The U.S. Fifth Fleet said on Wednesday it would not allow any disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, after Iran threatened to stop ships moving through the world's most important oil route.
"Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated," the Bahrain-based fleet said in an e-mail.
Iran, at loggerheads with the West over its nuclear programme, said on Tuesday it would stop the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf if sanctions were imposed on its crude exports.
"Closing the Strait of Hormuz for Iran's armed forces is really easy ... or as Iranians say, it will be easier than drinking a glass of water," Iran's navy chief Habibollah Sayyari told Iran's English-language Press TV on Wednesday.
"But right now, we don't need to shut it ...," said Sayyari, who is leading 10 days of exercises in the Strait.
Analysts say that Iran could potentially cause havoc in the Strait of Hormuz, a strip of water separating Oman and Iran, which connects the biggest Gulf oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. At its narrowest point, it is 21 miles (34 km) across.
But its navy would be no match for the firepower of the Fifth Fleet which consists of 20-plus ships supported by combat aircraft, with 15,000 people afloat and another 1,000 ashore.
A spokesperson for the Fifth Fleet said in response to queries from Reuters that, it "maintains a robust presence in the region to deter or counter destabilising activities," without providing further details.
A British Foreign Office spokesman called the Iranian threat
"rhetoric," saying: "Iranian politicians regularly use this type of rhetoric to distract attention from the real issue, which is the nature of their nuclear programme."
SANCTIONS
Tension has increased between Iran and the West after EU foreign ministers decided three weeks ago to tighten sanctions on the world's No. 5 crude exporter, but left open the idea of an embargo on Iranian oil.
The West accuses Iran of seeking a nuclear bomb; Tehran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes only.
The Iranian threat pushed up international oil prices on Tuesday although they slipped back on Wednesday in thin trade.
"The threat by Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz supported the oil market yesterday, but the effect is fading today as it will probably be empty threats as they cannot stop the flow for a longer period due to the amount of U.S. hardware in the area," said Thorbjoern bak Jensen, an oil analyst with Global Risk Management.
The Strait of Hormuz is "the world's most important oil chokepoint," according to the U.S. Department of Energy. About 40 percent of all traded oil leaves the Gulf region through the strategic waterway.
The State Department said there was an "element of bluster" in the threat, but underscored that the United States, whose warships patrol in the area, would support the free flow of oil.
France urged Iran on Wednesday to adhere to international law that allows all ships freedom of transit in the Strait.
Iran's international isolation over its defiant nuclear stance is hurting the country's oil-dependent economy, but Iranian officials have shown no sign of willingness to compromise.
Iran dismisses the impact of sanctions, saying trade and other measures imposed since the 1979 Islamic revolution toppled the U.S.-backed shah have made the country stronger.
During a public speech in Iran's western province of Ilam on Wednesday, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad implied Tehran had no intention of changing course.
"We will not yield to pressure to abandon our rights ... The Iranian nation will not withdraw from its right (to nuclear technology) even one iota because of the pressures," said Ahmadinejad, whose firm nuclear stance has stoked many ordinary Iranians' sense of national dignity.
Some Iranian oil officials have admitted that foreign sanctions were hurting the key energy sector that was in desperate need of foreign investment.
Though four rounds of the U.N. sanctions do not forbid the purchase of Iranian oil, many international oil firms and trading companies have stopped trading with Iran.
"SHOWING THEIR TEETH"
The United States and Israel have not ruled out military action if sanctions fail to rein in Iran's nuclear work.
An Iranian analyst who declined to be named said the leadership could not reach a compromise with the West over its nuclear activities as it "would harm its prestige among its core supporters."
As a result, he said, "Iranian officials are showing their teeth to prevent a military strike."
But he added that closing the Strait of Hormuz would harm Iran's economy, undermining the Iranian leadership ahead of a parliamentary election in March.
The election will be the first litmus test of the clerical establishment's popularity since the 2009 disputed presidential vote, that the opposition says was rigged to secure Ahmadinejad's re-election.
The vote was followed by eight months of anti-government street protests and created a deepening political rift among the hardline rulers.
With the opposition leaders under house arrest since February and the main reformist political parties banned since the vote, Iranian hardline rulers are concerned a low turnout would question the establishment's legitimacy.
Frustration is simmering among lower- and middle-class Iranians over Ahmadinejad's economic policies. Prices of most consumer goods have risen substantially and many Iranians struggle to make ends meet.
(Writing by Parisa Hafezi and Myra MacDonald; Editing by Alison Williams)

[vector7]

December 27, 2011
Top 12 Threats to Watch in 2012

Ryan Mauro

12. The Ron Paul Effect

No, I’m not calling Ron Paul anti-American, but his views on national security and naïve belief in the reasonableness of the Iranian regime do threaten our national security. Ron Paul’s eagerness for minimal government has led him and his supporters to reflexively embrace the argument that will excuse them from foreign action and bigger spending. In the last debate, Paul even claimed that there’s no evidence that Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon (false) and said terrorists only attack us because we’re the initial aggressors, claiming that terrorists don’t target neutral countries like Sweden and Switzerland (also false).

Ron Paul has a real chance of being the big story of the 2012 campaign for the Republican nomination and, if he runs as an Independent, the general election. His movement has the potential to influence politicians to embrace national security positions so irresponsible that they make President Obama look like Genghis Khan.

11. Sudan’s Sharia Transformation

Dictator Omar Bashir of Sudan vowed to turn his country into a 100% Sharia-based state after the secession of South Sudan. His government is already allied to Iran and allows the Revolutionary Guards to ship arms to Hamas through its territory. Bashir says he’ll make Arabic the official language and all legislation will be based on Sharia and only Sharia. Don’t be surprised if Sudan becomes the new Iran and its sponsorship of terrorism skyrockets.

10. Chaos in Europe

Civil strife will increase next year, and there are all sorts of extremists ready to riot, protest and incite. From anarchists to neo-Nazis to Islamists to anti-Muslim extremists to people who are just plain angry, there is no shortage of groups ready to bring about chaos to get their point across.

Greece, Sweden and France have suffered from huge riots in Muslim-majority areas, some of which have been dubbed "No Go Zones." These riots showed us that it only takes a single match to be lit for a wildfire to spread and with Europe’s economic problems and social tensions, there are plenty to go around.

9. Russia Goes Soviet

Vladimir Putin, the guy who called the dissolution of the U.S.S.R. the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” is now facing the Russian version of the Arab Spring. The country is facing its largest protests since the Soviet Union fell. Putin isn’t the type of guy to try to find the middle ground. His strong-arm tactics and KGB impulses are going to come out as they never have before and with them, his Cold War mindset.

One possible Russian action would be to wage war to overthrow the Georgian government, a U.S. ally. Ever since Russia ripped Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia in 2008, it has been eager to overthrow the Saakashvili government. Russia tried engineering a coup to accomplish this in 2009 but it failed. Since then, Russia has made the case for the government’s removal by accusing it of sponsoring terrorism.

8. The Mexican Drug War

Far more Mexicans have died since 2007 than all American soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan combined since 2001. It is hard to overstate the level of barbarism, anarchy and bloodshed that is happening to the south, and there is no indication that it will stop any time soon. Islamist terrorists are linking up with the Mexican drug cartels, and the Colombian FARC is cashing in on the action.

In September 2010, the government had to put up signs along 60 miles of Interstate 8 in Arizona, more than 100 miles from the Mexican border, warning that the area is unsafe. Sooner or later, the violence will spill over the border in a way that will force Americans to finally pay attention.

7. Sectarian War in Iraq and Syria

Right after U.S. forces left Iraq, Shiite Prime Minister al-Maliki and the Sunni politicians were at eachother's throats. A sharp increase in terrorism followed. Once again, Iraq is looking at the possibility of sectarian violence. Moqtada al-Sadr, the Iranian-backed militia leader, has vowed to attack any remaining U.S. forces in Iraq starting January 1, 2012. That includes the soldiers guarding the embassy and the thousands of contractors that remain. If the U.S. agrees to send 800 to 1,000 trainers back to Iraq as is being discussed, each will have a target on their back.

In Syria, the possibility of civil war is quickly increasing and with it, sectarian bloodletting. The minority Allawites, about 10-13% of the population, are sticking by the Assad regime. This is the minority that his regime and its vicious security forces draw its most important personnel from.

Going into 2012, sectarian warfare in Iraq and Syria is a distinct possibility and foreign powers will be actively backing opposite sides.

6. AfPak Goes Back to 2001

President Obama is bringing home the remaining 23,000 troops sent as part of the “surge” in Afghanistan by September. The remaining 68,000 will then start coming home until Afghanistan is put in charge of security in 2014. General John Allen opposes bringing down the number of troops below 68,000, though I’m concerned about the loss of that 23,000 as well. We’ll know in the coming months if this is a safe plan or not, as the Taliban and its terrorist allies will return or they won’t. The key question is whether President Obama will be willing to adjust his timeline if it is necessary. Given Vice President Biden’s comment that the Taliban is not an enemy, I’m not too hopeful.

At the same time, the U.S. relationship with Pakistan is in tatters. There is a distinct possibility that Pakistan will sever all counter-terrorism cooperation with the U.S. or reduce it to the bare minimal. This would bring us almost back to the pre-9/11 situation, where Al-Qaeda and other terrorists have free reign in parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan. We all know how that turned out.

5. Homegrown Jihad

The Obama Administration doesn’t deny the fact that homegrown terrorism is increasing. It’s simply a statistical fact. Attorney General Eric Holder says
“You didn’t worry about this [homegrown terrorism] even two years ago—about individuals, about Americans, to the extent that we now do.”
The most recent poll found that 5% of Muslim-Americans view Al-Qaeda favorably and 14 percent wouldn’t answer the question. Out of 1.8 million Muslim adults, that’s a lot of people sympathizing with the group that carried out 9/11. One can only imagine how high the support for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood must be. Levels of radicalism are higher among younger Muslims born in the U.S. than they are from older ones born overseas, so this threat is likely to increase, especially as the population quickly grows.

4. Kim Jong-Un Shows What He’s Made Of

The new leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-Un, ordered the attack on the South Korean Cheonan warship in March 2010 and, almost certainly, the artillery barrage on a South Korean island in November 2010. Every step in the succession process has been accompanied with a provocation, and now that he’s the leader, Kim Jong-Un is eager to prove himself and solidify his grip. If he doesn’t provoke some kind of confrontation, it’d be really out of character for the North Korean regime. Plus, British intelligence believes he suffers from severe hypertension and an “explosive temper.”

3. The Islamist Tidal Wave in the Middle East Spreads

The Arab Spring isn’t an Islamist revolution, but that doesn’t mean that the Islamists won’t come to power. They are leading the new Tunisian government, are winning a power struggle with the secularists in Libya and are winning landslide victories in Egypt’s elections. And the Islamists have every reason to believe they’ll add a few notches to their belt in 2012.

In Yemen, the largest opposition party is Islah, which is a Muslim Brotherhood affiliate with Salafist backing. One of its leaders was blacklisted by the U.S. State Department for his involvement with Osama Bin Laden. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels benefit from the instability.

Jordan is another prime candidate for the Arab Spring, but there have also been major riots and protests in Oman, Algeria, Morocco, Kuwait and other states. In Saudi Arabia, Prince Nayef, an ally of the Wahhabists, is bound to become King soon. The youth population is eager for reform and it will be difficult for the Royal Family to play a balancing act that will prevent upheaval.

2. Military Action Against Iran

The Iranian regime will retaliate with its full might if it survives a limited strike on its nuclear facilities. It may even want such a strike. It’s not hard to imagine the horrors that will probably follow an Israeli attack on Iran: Terrorist proxies receiving the green light for whatever they want, the Straits of Hormuz being attacked, full retaliation from Revolutionary Guards missile bases, etc., etc.

Don’t think the U.S. can escape Iran’s response. No matter how hard we try to distance ourselves from Israel, Islamists view the U.S. and Israel as essentially the same. Secretary of Defense Panetta says Iran could get a nuclear bomb within a year. Let’s hope that Iran’s economic stresses, political in-fighting, and ongoing series of unexplained “accidents” buys us some time.

1. Iran Gets the Bomb

It’s often said that the only thing more dangerous than an attack on Iran is letting Iran get the nuke. And it’s true. If you think Iran is a big sponsor of terrorism now, wait until you see what happens when Iran has the protection of a nuclear deterrent. Iran will return to all of its unfinished proxy wars, including those waged against the pro-American Arab governments.

If Iran appears to be on the edge of a having a nuclear warhead, almost every country in the region will follow. The Gulf Cooperation Council countries and those seeking to join the body (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates and Morocco) will go nuclear, as will probably Turkey and Egypt.

Iran will share its nuclear technology (if not actual weapons) with its allies, so you can add Syria (if Assad survives), Sudan and Venezuela to the list. Once all the mentioned countries go nuclear, their adversaries will also have to reexamine their positions.

Of course, Iran could also use the nuke it obtains. Iran has rehearsed carrying out an EMP strike, which could theoretically disable the U.S. and bring about death and destruction that only a Roland Emmerich film can depict. At the very least, the creation of an Iranian nuke and the subsequent nuclear arms race adds a flammable element into the region best known for catching on fire.

There are many threats facing the Western world in 2012. The economy is the number one issue, but voters must remember that national security can claim the top spot in one instant.

Ryan Mauro is the National Security Analyst for Family Security Matters. He is the Founder of WorldThreats.com, a national security analyst at Christian Action Network, a Strategic Analyst for Wikistrat and a national security commentator for FOX News.

[Phil Fiord]

I know and respect Ryan Mauro. I do however also know who he wants for President, so any comments regarding other candidates are subjective.

[samizdat]

I do however also know who he wants for President

Who?

[Phil Fiord]

Well, Sami, I don't want to disclose that info as I won't disclose others personal info. I am unsure if he has vocalized it or written it.

[samizdat]

I really appreciate & respect Ryan´s forthwith, non-biased fact based reporting & research skills, and admire his youth & courage. I check
http://www.worldthreats.com/
3-5 times a week for timely knowledge on mideast, etc. He's quite a wise guy, imho. Seeking the truth, and hooked up w/ some very wise big whigs at wikistrat, as well as rich young talent. I hope he remains out of Wash. politics, at least for now, and think he'd make a better preacher than a politician...or could those be the same?

He has very decent "presence". I saw a recent Fox interview, where he was practically ignored, yet steals the show. All I could think was__ he looks like a f. altar boy. Pretty bad dude!

[Phil Fiord]

Sami,

I have known him since he was a teen minor as well as his parents. I have encouraged him to consider a leadership role in our country when he grows a tad and has his education set.

He also wrote a book a few years back that was compiled with tons of sourced research on the middle east. It conflicts some with official stories now, but I read the draft and final. He did his research, all open source I might add, and a lot of what he collected and compiled is ignored today, but still out there.

[American Patriot]

Phil is that same Ryan you introduced me to on the internet?

[Phil Fiord]

Only if we are talking about 2003 or later. He never was on AN or here. He also never was on WoW or anything like that.

[samizdat]

He was "blind boy" on the old tfp board. Death to America
http://www.amazon.com/Death-America-.../dp/1413774733
was his first book.

consider a leadership role in our country when...when he grows a tad and has his education set

That makes me feel better, Phil. He's quite a leapfrogger already. Learning never ends.
No problem, that when God's eye is on the sparrow, there are trillions of buzzards out.

It's quite impossible to never "step in the shit" in Wash., D.C. But of course...nothing is impossible with God.

I am curious who he favors in 2012, but I reckon it's newt (not too kool). I'm configuring a pub (Cain or Perry) v. independent v. Hilary & Biden.

If the economy tanks badly by Sept., and IF elections are not fraudulent, the low budget prudent i-net campaigner may win. De people are tired of $$ faces billboards.

[vector7]

JohnGaltFLA.com Predictions for 2012

ByJohn Galt

– January 1, 2012

Posted in: Breaking News, Galtisms


JohnGaltFLA Predictions for 2012

By John Galt

January 1, 2012 – 17:00 ET

I. Geopolitical Predictions

1. The United States constructs a new large military base in Columbia near the Venezuelan border in anticipation of the collapse of the Chavez regime. The new focus on South America is seen as a desire to refocus American foreign policy as the Middle East rejects any further interference from the United States. Columbia welcomes the action as it intertwines the U.S. into their internal conflicts and guarantees economic cooperation as their oil exports increase.

2. Syria’s dictatorship under Assad survives the “Arab Spring” movement in a bloody reign of terror due to other events in the Middle East over taking concerns about Syria, and renewed commitments to protect Syria from the West by Russia and China. Assad shifts strategies and adopts the call for a greater Caliphate and charges into the leadership in some parts of the Arab world by demanding all “good Arabs” reject the poisonous influence of the U.S. and Europe.

3. Turkey invades and occupies the northern 25% of Kurdistan inside of Iraq, to stifle the rebel PKK movement. In retaliation, Kurdish based terrorist attacks increase in Baghdad, Southeastern Turkey, and northern Iran. Iran supports the Turkish invasion and rejects calls from Baghdad to help evict the occupation force. Saudi Arabia offers a blanket support for all Sunni Muslims in Iraq and promises to invade and offer military assistance if they are attacked by Kurdish or Shiite forces inside the nation of Iraq. Meanwhile, during 2012′s latter half, Iranian forces launch open incursions into the Basra region to “support and stop” the slaughter of Shiites by “Western pawns” in Baghdad. Iraq moves closer to a full blown civil war by the end of 2012.

4. The Iranian Nuclear program is dealt a severe set back in 2012 when United States’ forces simultaneously attack 40 facilities, both military and civilian, destroying the majority of their operational ability to produce nuclear fuel. Israel praises the attack and openly thanks the United States from preventing an all out regional war. The attack will probably occur between August and October of 2012.

A U.S. Naval vessel is sunk in the Straits of Hormuz in retaliation moving both nations closer to all out war. The American leadership claims that the action was legal per United Nations’ Security Council warnings and edicts issued in May. Iran begins a full blown propaganda campaign which wins the sympathy of the Islamic world by displaying television news programs showing small girls dying from radiation sickness and mutilated bodies where an American missile allegedly missed its target. President Obama denies claims by some inside the United States and overseas that the attack was tied to his flailing political re-election campaign and poll results showing him trailing by over 14% in some surveys.

5. Lloyd’s of London and other insurers declare the entire Persian Gulf and Arabian Sea a war zone and refuse to honor or insure any vessels transporting goods to and from the region. Shipping rates into and crossing through the waters of all Islamic nations skyrocket as protests erupt worldwide. Nigeria considers an oil embargo against the US and Europe for the attack on Iran and calls from the new non-aligned movement.

6. South Africa emerges as the leader of a new non-aligned movement secretly sponsored by Russia to put pressure on the West. Many Islamic nations join up in retaliation for the attack on Iran.

7. The UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, and Bahrain announce a new GCC currency regime based on the price of Brent crude, Omani crude, gold, the Yen, the Yuan, and the Dollar. Russia and China immediately recognize the new currency regime and offer to sell military equipment denominated in the new currency to the Kingdoms in the region.

8. Cambodia and Thailand engage in a renewed month long firefight over the disputed border region. China takes the role as peacekeeper by offering to station troops in the disputed territory with a United Nations role.

9. Hugo Chavez dies of cancer in Venezuela and a heretofore unknown hardline Marxist leaning General comes to power creating a mirror copy of the Cuban communist state.

10. Mexico’s drug violence expands as heavier weapons including small artillery pieces, rocket launchers (artillery type), anti-aircraft missiles and helicopters are deployed against government troops. The nation moves closer to the brink of civil war.

11. King Mohammed VI flees Morocco under Islamist pressure from a new series of protests from the population during what becomes known as the “Second Arab Spring.”

12. Algeria plunges closer to open civil war after several large terrorist attacks and as the Islamist movement is emboldened by the collapse of Morocco’s pro-Western leadership.

13. India agrees to the basing of United States anti-ballistic missile batteries as a preventative measure to insure that a random attack due to the nation of Pakistan becoming more unstable after a failed coup. India agrees to sign an international “no first strike” pact as part of the agreement.

14. Pakistan ceases all military and intelligence cooperation with the United States after another wayward drone attack kills Pakistani soldiers early in 2012.

15. The Taliban strike a deal with the Karzai government in Afghanistan with guarantees of immunity from prosecution for prior atrocities. The United States administration is outraged and accelerates the troop withdrawal during the summer of 2012.

16. Terrorists attack Moscow again before Putin is elected killing dozens. Chechen radicals are accused of the action but this time, the nation of Georgia is accused of assisting the terrorists.

17. Another major earthquake causes nuclear power plant problems in Japan. The plant is successfully shut down but the population flees the northern half of the nation in fear of another Fukushima disaster.

18. The first electronic malfunctions due to excessive radiation readings are discovered in vehicle and other machinery produced using materials from Japan. Planes, cars, trains, and other heavy machinery is shut down until the circuits are checked and deemed safe.

19. Iran successfully launches its first satellite into orbit.

20. Greece falls into civil war in late 2012. Hundreds die in the first month of fighting.

21. Italy experiences a resurgence of communist terrorist attacks in the spring and summer of 2012 as the economy collapses.

22. Portugal withdraws from the European Union along with Greece and Ireland.

23. French Muslims riot in sympathy with Moroccan and Algerian protesters causing the rise of a nationalist, more racist party in France before the election.

24. The United Kingdom seriously considers the secession of Scotland after a petition is submitted before the Queen and Parliament.

25. Russia sees a massive economic collapse but Putin re-introduces Soviet era internal security apparatus crushing all opposition and arresting numerous “foreign agents” accused of fomenting unrest.

26. China’s new premier is a hardliner and begins the construction of an electronic and political virtual wall preventing any data or reports of human rights abuses or internal military action from being reported by Western sources.

Some human rights groups accuse the new Chinese communist gulags of slaughtering thousands of dissenters per month by year end. Islamic groups report that entire villages of Uighur’s are slaughtered in a genocidal campaign but the West ignores the reports due to the situation in the Middle East.

28. The new Chinese aircraft carrier pays a “peace visit” to the United States naval port in San Diego, California. Obama meets the new premier on the deck of the carrier to create a “new era of trust and cooperation between the two superpowers.”

28. Canada begins to accept the Yuan on a limited basis for purchases of oil and lumber only.

29. Egypt closes the Suez Canal for one week and militarize the zone in protest against the lack of action to force Israel to the table to discuss a new Palestinian state.

II. U.S. Political Predictions

1. President Barrack Obama wins re-election over Mitt Romney, 49.1% to 40.3%. Independent candidate Ron Paul takes 8.1% of the vote.

2. The Republicans hold the House of Representatives by 3 seats. “Tea Party” independents pick up 4 of the seats against Republican incumbents who voted with liberal tendencies causing a massive shake up in the Republican leadership.

3. Democrats are actually caught engaging in voter fraud in 2 states this election cycle.

4. The Senate remains under Democrat Party control by 1 seat.

5. Republicans lose 1 governor’s race to a Democrat and 1 to a “Tea Party” independent (correction from the radio predictions show due to a typo on my part).

6. Democrats lose 1 governorships to a “Tea Party” independent who defeats both political parties.

7. The Supreme Court upholds the individual mandate portion of the Obamacare law. This action initiates the creation of the third party”Tea Party” movement for the coming elections of 2012.

8. Senator Rand Paul quits the Republican Party along with 5 other members of the House of Representatives declaring themselves independents.

9. The Supreme Court upholds the right of the Department of Homeland Security to monitor United States citizens communications for terrorist threats without a warrant.

10. Nancy Pelosi resigns from the House of Representatives after a scandal emerges which exposes a huge insider trading scandal involving politicians and bankers at a small, formerly unheard of hedge fund.

11. Occupy movement turns on the DNC convention with peaceful protests but hundreds arrested as they attempt to block the streets of Charlotte, North Carolina.

12. Occupy movement goes into a radical direction against the RNC convention with Tampa, Florida becoming the modern version of “Kent State” where protesters are killed and dozens wounded in a conflict with the authorities after one of the radicals opens fire wounding an officer. Thousands are arrested and detained at Raymond James Stadium for processing.

13. California declares the first of its kind restrictions on bloggers engaged in political dissent and commentary with penalties including fines and jail time. Instead of using legislative action, Governor Brown declares a state of emergency after the riots in Tampa and Charlotte until the elections are complete to ensure “the rights of the citizens.”

14. SOPA passes the House and the conference committee with the Senate result in the first restrictions and “legal” definitions delineating the difference between a “journalist” and a “blogger.” In protest, Anonymous takes all of the major news outlets and puts a black, blank screen up on their websites. The first blogger is prosecuted under this law by October of 2012.

15. The new Domestic Homeland Security Force is created by the Congress at the request of the administration to act as a mobile deployment force to blunt terrorist activity inside the borders of the United States. This “force” is buried in a desperation budget resolution act passed in the spring of 2012 as a new Federal Government DHS employment initiative.

III. Homeland Security

1. The first American citizen is arrested under the provisions of the NDAA. The individual arrested is declared a “lone wolf” with alleged sympathetic ties to Al-Qaeda but reports surface that he was a supporter of the new third party movement and “Patriot” groups and had no ties to radical Islam.

2. The first rest area check points are tested where all vehicles are pulled over, commercial or civilian, for inspection by DHS VIPR teams, state department of transportation officials, and local law enforcement. Guns are confiscated for “inspection” as well as cash in excess of $1,000.

3. A U.S. Senator reveals photos of domestic drones taking pictures of Americans sitting in their living room causing an outraged public demanding action against this illegal spying. The story is buried and called “fabricated” by the authorities.

4. Biometric airline tickets are tested by TSA.

5. TSA experiences its largest scandal to date and dozens of officers are arrested (yeah, I know, it’s not a reach).

6. A truck hijacking by an alleged Al-Qaeda operative creates a new series of regulations requiring a DHS officer or certified DHS manager to operate as the official “Homeland Security Supervisor” at all transportation companies operating more than 250 units on the road.

7. Armed DHS troops begin riding on the railways, both pass enter and freight, before the year ends.

8. The first Border Patrol robots are tested on the California border. Armed with Tasers, tear gas grenades, cameras, and other features, the Mexican government protests as a result of their deployment.

9. NHS, or “Neighborhood Homeland Security” elective courses are offered to Juniors and Seniors in high schools. Completion of these courses and “volunteer” work could entitle the participants to collegiate grants and scholarships. Parents are turned in by some children for “anti-American” activities.

10. Michigan deploys the first DHS naval patrol boats in Lake Michigan not under USCG supervision.

IV. Economic Predictions

1. Greece, Ireland, and Portugal withdraw from the European Union creating a two quarter long massive worldwide recession. Hundreds of banks fail in the European Union and United States as a result.

2. Stock update report

Goldman Sachs falls below $50 per share during 2012.

Bank of America is delisted.

Citigroup is split up by the government into several divisions.

Wells Fargo trades below $15 per share during 2012.

J.P. Morgan Chase trades below $20 during 2012.

U.S. Bancorp eventually trades above $60 per share during 2012.

Regions Financial is delisted.

Synovus is delisted.

FXE is delisted at the request of the European Union due to the implied instability created by its trading action.

5 other ETF’s are delisted due to regulatory intervention.

AAPL trades below $200 during 2012.
GOOG trades below $300 during 2012.
AMZN trades between $90 to $140 in 2012.
INTC trades below $10 during 2012.
XLF is delisted due to action by the SEC as well as all double and triple financial ETF’s.

3. The Blackstone Group acquires Merrill Lynch with U.S. Treasury department assistance.

4. Goldman Sachs acquires the retail operations of Bank of America with the toxic assets transferred to a new joint Federal Reserve and U.S. Government agency created during an emergency weekend session in Congress.

5. 10 regional banks are forcibly merged with larger institutions due to solvency concerns.

6. Gold bottoms during trading one day between $1250 to $1320 per ounce and skyrockets above $2000 before the year is over with one day of trading rising over $150 per ounce.

7. Silver bottoms between $22-$25 then stabilizes above $50 per ounce before year end.

8. Copper trades as low as $1.50 before rising back above $3.

9. The ags enter a new bull market with shortages causing beef, soybeans, and wheat prices causing food inflation concerns world wide.

10. WTI crude tops $200 per barrel briefly. Brent tops $235. Natural Gas tops $5, and RBOB Unleaded Gas tops $6 per ounce triggering a price freeze and rationing due to an emergency declaration by President Obama.

11. The DJIA falls below 8,000 but crosses 12,000 close to the election.

12. The S&P 500 falls below 760 but crosses 1280 by year end.

13. The NASDAQ falls below 2,000 but finishes above 2,700 by year end in a massive rally after the election and announcement of Obama’s new “internet” initiative.

14. 2 more airlines go bankrupt. One legacy carrier ceases to exist after the impact of the oil price explosion destroys all leisure travel.

15. The Nikkei 225 falls below 5,000 at some point in 2012.

16. India experiences a prolonged bear market barely holding the 9,000 level but rallying into the year end.

17. Russia ‘restructures’ its stock market blocking foreign investment and speculation.

18. Capital controls cause the British FTSE 100 to close below 3,500 during 2012. Ireland’s stock market falls 90% below its all time highs in the previous decade.
19. Germany and France see a major bear market with a further 30% decline in 2012.

20. Canada rallies above 12,000 based on oil and gold prices but falls below 8,000 early in 2012.

21. Short selling is banned in Q1 in the US on all financial stocks.

22. The 1-3-6 month United States Treasuries trade with negative yields for the first quarter of 2012 for the first time in history.

23. Greek 1 year yields reach 500% before the nation defaults and withdraws from the European Union.

24. The Australian dollar falls back to the 79-80 level.

25. The Dollar Index peaks at 91 to 93, possibly a little higher, in 2012.

26. The Fed, Swiss National Bank, JCB, ECB, Canadian National Bank, and Bank of England agree to form a new permanent committee to meet on monetary policy each quarter starting after the collapse.

V. Weather & Earth Change Predictions

1. Hurricane forecast 2012: 6 Tropical Storms, 6 Hurricanes with one major hurricane. Only two storms impact the United States.

2. 1 earthquake above 8.4 on the Richter Scale somewhere in the world in 2012.

3. Solar Flux skyrockets above 180 as the period of the Solar Maximum accelerates.

4. First U.S. commercial satellite damaged and disabled due to a solar flare.

5. The current drought continues and expands across the United States and Africa.

VI. Miscellaneous Predictions

1. First death due to an electric car failing occurs in the winter of 2012. The battery dies during a blizzard and the driver is found frozen to death after the storm.

2. The Catholic Church is embroiled in an online sex scandal where children are solicited online for recruitment for senior members inside the Church.

3. Canada ceases allowing all non-skilled workers and refugees as the economy craters in early 2012. A select number of highly skilled workers are permitted limited work visas with possible admission to apply for citizenship for the foreseeable future.

4. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fire their head coach and hire Jeff Fisher as the replacement (Yeah, I know, it’s wishcasting).

5. The Tampa Bay Rays will face the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2012 World Series.

6 . The Oscar for Best Picture will be awarded to some obscure British picture that wives force their husbands to watch at gunpoint.

BONUS PREDICTION:

One of the major cable news networks is caught fabricating stories against Ron Paul as a memo is leaked ordering the on air talent to highlight negative stories to diminish his campaign.

Remember, I do this for fun but there is some logic and forethought into these predictions so do with them what one desires, but let the buyer beware.

[vector7]

2012 The Year We Entered the Tunnel

13.01.2012 15:40



While many of my predictions were optimistic on the time lines, the overall trends have stayed in the same direct. The main exception were the US/EU-created twitter revolutions in the Arab world, which to tell the truth, I had not predicted, but which do, over all, move us towards the ultimate confrontation that will lead to the destruction of Turkey, the collapse of NATO and the final rise of the Fourth Reich, thus reserving a future battle between are reborn Orthodox Block and the Fourth Reich.

Russia
Russia will more than likely face a mild recession this year, as demand for exports (primarily oil, gas, steel and wood) falls, first due to the US/EU fall and then due to the Chinese hard landing. The Russian economy weathered the over all 2008 Crisis, the start of the Super Depression, quite well, regardless of statistics and returned to strong economic growth the following year. 2011 was characterized by strong growth with many European companies, especially the British and Germans, moving production into Russia, to avoid the insanity of the EU, meet minimum criteria for local production and be in position to survive the EU/US collapses. From Siemens to Microsoft, new facilities are popping up everywhere.

However, the second half of 2011 was also marked by a major assault by the US/UK's Masonic elites upon Russia's stability. As I mention in my article ((article)), the West, knowing it is on the brink of an irreversible collapse, must make sure not to leave the stage for the decade or so it will take to recover, without knocking Russian down too, otherwise, they will face a new order they are not willing to face.

This, in effect, has already plaid itself out and failed, though the US media may continue to hype it and push for a new Cold War, to get the attention of their destitute off of their pathetic plights. The coup failed, though it did, to some degree , rock the boat. On the bright side, the rocking will be used to further needed reforms, as a new excuse exists to move some of the blocks out of the way. In the longer term, it had the effect of bringing nationalist, and thus monarchist elements to a more central position and these seeds will continue to grow until some time, probably within the next 10 years, the monarchy will be reinstated. Of course, this will be even more detrimental to the US Masons, one of the most vile enemies of Christian Monarchy that Satan has even loosened upon the earth. But then again, that is what the term blow back is for.

I also predict that two wars will erupt: more than likely another war with Georgia, early on in the year. The Americans will need something else to push on Russia, now that their pathetic purchased coup has so utterly fallen on its face and their hoax media "coverage" was exposed for the utter spliced rubbish that it is. More than likely, the US/Georgians will use another major occasion, such as a holiday (Pascha) or sporting event, to start their war, for which they have been hyper rearming, on the US dollar, since 2008. It will be another short and bloody failure, again sacrificing several thousand Georgian lives for US propaganda value. Since the Russian international information services have failed to come to western standards, over the past 3 years, it will lead to the same results: victory on the ground, defeat in the opinion/mass media. It will, however, be a major blow to the US bought politicos inside of Russia and will lead to major instability in Georgia.

The main war of the year will come in the summer with Turkey, as I predicted previously. It will be a culmination of Edegan's mad scheming to return the hated and barbaric Ottoman Empire to life and will instead result in the utter destruction of Turkey and the final collapse of the NATO rouge regime.


United States
This year, more then likely, America will transfer fully into a police state dictatorship. Sure, they will still have an "election" but the Republican candidate will be handpicked by the party's elites, to make sure he loses to Obama and that Obama remains in power. By midyear the government will have the right to arrest without warrant or accusation "terrorists" and their "enablers". This will be just in time, as inflation will continue to sky rocket and nations will continue moving away from the dollar. An example of this was the recent announcement from China and Japan that they will no longer use the USD in inter-nation trade, just another blow against the only real export the US has, outside of scrap metal and corn. Several major standoffs and shootouts with groups of sovereignty seekers will occur.
Black and Mexican on White and Asian violence will also escalate, but the partisan federal police will look the other way on the "oppressors" getting theirs.

As the economy continues to fall, as real unemployment, vs the fictional figures, continues to creep towards thirty percent, the public will grow ever more disenchanted and angry. More radical elements in Texas, the old Confederacy, Hawaii, Alaska, Maine and Vermont will call for independence and will be crushed. This will work out as all repressive measures work out, drawing instability underground but it will remain so.

Especially problematic for the US will be returning military, who will face little real employment outside the military. Equally problematic, will be the collapse of Mexico and the full wash over of the violence into the US.

Mid summer, when the Turkish war begins, the US, leading NATO will charge in. However, strong initial losses coupled with internal unrest, will cause it to pull back, to deal with the internal fractures.

Passports out of the US will also become much harder to get, as brain drain will become a serious issue. 2012 will be the year that many of the brightest will finally throw in the towel and head out, especially after the Nov elections.

Of course, than there's the God factor. God punished the US with the many plagues, but the US elites have continued to practice greater and greater evil while the mindless masses screaming its not our fault (but we're a Republic damn it!) continue to holler and yelp in glee at every new warfootage to entertain them. God gave America 1. Heavy winters, 2. Flooding, 3. Fires, 4. Drought, 5. Hurricane Flooding in the NE, 6. Crop Failures, 7. Earthquakes, 8. Early and heavy blizzards in Oct....eight plagues that have all been ignored. As is the way of God, things will only get worse as His rage grows.

Mexico
I know I have been predicting this for two years now, but the collapse will finally come this year. I am amazed how the Mexican government has been able to hold on, but with even the most prestigious resort areas of Acapulco and Cancun war zones and violence flooding into the capital of Mexico City, the end is neigh. This year alone, over 300 gangland murderers occurred in the capital.

With America pumping weapons, keeping the borders open and thus the drug trade going and allowing a safe place for the cartels to hide and recoop, the collapse of the state, that already holds less then half the country within its grasp, is inevitable.

This violence will spill over into the Gulf, further into Arizona, creating absolute chaos in that oblast and into Texas, New Mexico and California.

Brazil
The Brazil carry trade will finally collapse, along with the iron ore trade with China, as China suffers a hard landing. Coupled with a much lower demand for oil and gas, the main economies crash down, Brazil's tens of millions of poor will bring the country and government to a standstill, bringing about civil strife and marshal law. The country will survive, but will exit 2012 in much worse financial shape then it entered.


Argentina
Argentina, having passed an insane "terrorism" bill that labels everyone and anyone who opposes the elected government as terrorists, open for indefinite detention, will face ever growing civil strife and the possibility of civil war. To that end, the government, as every government of its type and as Argentina has done in the past, will seek an external enemy, in this case, the traditional Falkland Islands. That there is great deposits of oil and gas already being exploited will just add to the bonus.

Argentina will launch another invasion and Britain will respond. However, the English navy is a shadow of its former self and it will not have US intelligence on its back. The Obama will be backing the Argentines and will give them vast intelligence which will cause the British to lose a carrier and several other ships. The Falklands will be occupied and the British will be unable to land reinforcements on it. To make sure it controls the islands, there will be a whole scale cleansing of the British population, placed on transports and sent to the UK.

No resolutions will pass in the UN, with the US blocking and calling for "cool" heads, while aiding the Argentines.

Cuba
Fidel will finally meet his maker this year and a nationalist government will seize power. This is not the good news that it would seem to the US, as those very same nationalists will start agitating for the Florida Keys and Miami, both effectively Cuban territories due to the mass migrations over the past 40 years.

Iceland
Iceland will continue to go its own way and will be blocked from European trade, as limited as that will become this year. For that reason, there will be major moves from the Kremlin to align the Icelanders into a Russian alliance. The Icelandic economy will be kept afloat, in large part, by Russian trade and monies, not the first time. While there will be realistic discussions about setting up Russian bases on Iceland, as long as NATO stands, which will be through most of this year, this will only be talk.

Ireland
Ireland, with the final collapse of the present EU system and the reformation and rise of the Fourth Reich, will be forced, by its people, to follow the Icelandic route, casting out the last vestiges of the EU. Economic turmoil will wrap the nation, but its low taxes will remain and several major US corporations, fleeing the Fascist regime in the US, will transfer and reregister in Ireland.

United Kingdom
Chaos, war, collapse and the signs of the return of the British. The whole cycle is in wake for the British, with large doses of pain and equal doses of hope. As reported two days ago, over 40,000 businesses look at shut downs in January alone, after another disastrous Christmas season.

The British will not follow the EU into the Fourth Reich formation, outright, but will hang around on the outskirts for the first half of the year, as the decent begins, unlike Ireland, Greece, Spain and Portugal, the first four that will leave outright.

When the British are defeated in Argentina, there will be massive unrest in the streets. David Cameron's government will be able to hang on, however only by slim margins.

The Islamics, never missing a chance to make enemies, will be out in force mocking the defeated British. This will of course feed into the various right wing nationalists groups.

When the Turkish war explodes, the British will ever willingly to join in behind the Americans, as part of the NATO force. However, after losing several combat ships, they will back out quickly, as internal decent will bring down the government. Right wing Nationalists will grab for power, rallying around the monarchy, specifically the crown princes. The rest of the year will see street riots and battles with various Islamic groups and mass deportations by the new government.

France
France's elections will go as planned, that is, Mary Le Pan will come no where near power, even though she has the majority of popular opinion behind her. The fellow Fourth Reich architect Sarkozy will remain in power, through every dirty trick, which may include the assassination of Mary. France will be a main figure in the Fourth Reich.
She will support the war against Russia, Greece and the Orthodox initially, but at the signal from Germany will pull out, allowing NATO to collapse and driving the last of the US vestiges out of Europe proper.

Germany
The German elites will continue at the full clip moving their nation into the full Fourth Reich union, regardless of what the people proper feel or want. When the war against Russia and Greece begins, Germany will back it and send some planes, though no ships or ground troops will be supplied. When NATO is full invested, which will not take long, Germany will pull out, along with France, crashing the party.

By the end of the year, the EU will be around in name only and NATO will be a crushed and discredited organization. The Germans will be running the whole thing, through their Belgian puppets.

Spain & Portugal
Spain's economy will continue to implode and so will that of Portugal, neither nation able to control its currency. The war against the Orthodox and the collapse of NATO will cause major governmental turmoil and will crush the present right of center government. By the end of the year, they will eject themselves from the EU, as nationalists come to power. The two will form a free trade zone of their own, as well as continuing to make out reaches to Latin America and North Africa.

Italy
Italy's downward spiral will continue and the NATO war will be a major embarrassment. However, as much as people want to leave the EU, it will not work, as the Brussels controlled government will not leave and Italy will become a second tier state, its finances controlled by Brussels but still not part of the EU "Core" aka Fourth Reich. There will be many civil disturbances throughout the country, especially in the south, which will continue to be flooded by North and Central Africans.

Poland
Poland's alliance with the collapsing US empire will become fanatical. Caught between a resurgent and pissed off Russia and the rebirth of the Fourth Reich. Poland will remain in the EU but will continue to distance itself further and further.

Serbia
By the time the war with Turkey erupts, the Serbian Judases in power will be doing the famous helicopter on the roof run. When the Turkish tanks roll into Greece, the Serbian Radical party will rally the people to them, over throwing the puppet regime. Serbian fighters will already be heading down to fight the Turks, even as the government reorganizes and mobilizes the military.

Only part of the military will head to aid Greece, with the rest heading into Kosovo, over running and destroying the NATO forces in the area, and driving out the Albanian invaders in mass. NATO will pull out to a hostile Croatia, whose own nationalists will be rallying to the threat of the hated Turk.

Bulgaria
Bulgaria's leadership will face a similar problem as Serbia's. When the military is ordered to stay out of the war, as the Turks drive in, there will be a military coup as Orthodox Bulgarians take to the streets in defiance of their bankrupt puppet regime.

Bulgaria will also enter the war. American bases in Bulgaria will be besieged by the locals and the Bulgarian military will place the Americans under arrest, for the duration of the conflict.

Romania
Romania will stay out of the war with Turkey but its leadership will barely hold on to power, as it too is rocked by internal decent. They will then become an ever more fringe player in the "new" EU structure.

The Fourth Reich
The new and revised EU, one of close close and even closer cooperation, that is, one where all the fiscal power and thus all the power of the individual states is controlled by Brussels and thus by Berlin, will finally come into reality. The weaker states on the periphery will either be rejected, ejected or will self eject. The core states will be: Germany, France, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Austria, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia (the last 3 for strategic reasons). The dictatorial union of the unified elites will of course be weak, at first. They will effectively gut NATO and fully back their EuroForce. Not all states will leave the EU but those not part of the FR will be a second tier at best and will have strong secessionist views in place.

The ultimate strategy of the FR will be no different than that of the Third Reich, but they will require several years to rebuild their economies and put themselves back on their collective feet, as well as create a real war machine. Of course the FR will still be part of the EU and will use that cover name, adding something to the tune of core states or some such.

Greece
Greece will over throw its government within the first half of the year, by a military coup. They will be the first EU puppet regime running for the roof top helicopters. Greece will equally exit out of the EU and will restart printing of the Drachma. There will be talks about alliances with and the appearance of Russian bases.

However, before these come to fruition, Greece's alliance with Cyprus and Israel will pull it directly into war with Turkey. The Turks will be fighting a three front war, but a large enough force will drive into Greece. The Greeks will fight as hard as they can but will be overcome. The Turkish assault will stall in Thessaloniki amidst massive street to street fighting and also in the mountains to the north. The northern Greeks will be bolstered by Serbia, Macedonian and Bulgarian volunteers, which will further stall the Turkish drive. NATO and the EU will stay out of the fighting, at this point, calling weakly for all sides to come to terms. The Turks will enter central Greece, though much slower than expected, as their forces will be drawn off by a general Kurdish uprising and continued heavy fighting in northern Israel.

Russia will at first stay neutral, also calling for peace, however, it will cut the Turks off from gas and oil. Russian humanitarian aid will fly into Greece, over Bulgarian airspace, even as the Bulgarian government falls to its own military. After that point, active Russian aid will be drawn in.

Images of dead Orthodox Greeks, from Turkish atrocities, will drive the masses into the streets demanding direct intervention. The UN will be blocked by US/UK/French vetos, even as Russian volunteers start to flood into the Balkans. Russia will start to threaten Turkey and this will quickly escalate into air skirmishes. NATO will come alive, directly threatening Russia to stay out. Russia will, by this point be drawn deeply into the fighting, with Ukraine close at the hip.

The Russian military will attack directly through Georgia, who after four days of resistance, will collapse. Tbilisi will not be besieged by major forces, surrounded and forced into submission, as the bulk of the military will drive into Turkey proper. At this point Armenia will enter the war on Russia's side and Azerbaijan on Turkey's.

NATO will confront Russia in the Black Sea and will suffer a full defeat, cut off from Bulgarian support bases, with only Romania's bases left. These will be degraded by Russian missiles and bombers. NATO ships will be sunk, most being American. NATO fighters will also be confronted at the edge of their operability over the Balkans and the Black Sea. This defeat, and Ukraine's entry into the war on Russia's side, will be used by the Germans as a reason to pull out and thus crush NATO from within.

By the end of the year, the Turks will have been checked in northern Israel, will be facing continual Syrian partisan warfare. They will have lost the eastern half of their country to Armenian, Kurdish forces, while Russia will be driving on them, sitting at the outskirts of Ankara. They will still hold Thessaloniki, but will have withdrawn from central Greece and will be under constant attack from the north by Greek, Serbian and Bulgarian forces. They will also have lost Cyprus by this point to S.Cypriot forces, unable to resupply it due to the other fronts.

The final destruction of Turkey, a Russian landing in Constantinople, as well as the capture of Ankara, will come in the first half of 2013. At this point, Turkey will face full dissolution as a nation, being divided into at least 3 maybe four parts: Greek (Byzentine), Armenian (Trebzon) and Kurdish south and southeast and maybe a smaller Bulgarian zone in the north of Turkey proper as well as a slice of northern Thrace.

Cyprus
Cyprus will ride out the war relatively easily compared to the rest in the area. Cyprus will suffer initial missile and bomber strikes by the Turks, directly on their infrastructure, including civilian zones, and on their gas drilling, shutting it down. However, the Greeks and Israelis will be involved and the Turks will suffer losses of planes needed in Greece and Israel. South Cyprus will instantly launch an assault on N.Cyprus and through hard fighting will drive out the Turks within several months.

Turkey
This year will bring Turkey its last war. Turkey's government will continue to be run by the Islamic demagogue Erdegan. He will form a close alliance with Egypt and will back the Syrian Islamic Sunni revolutionaries, including an invasion of Syria, which will fall. Thus surrounding Israel.

Erdegan will seek the mantle of the new Sulman and will launch an assault on the Israelis and thus their Greek and Cypriot allies, pulling Turkey into a war it will not win.

By mid 2013, Turkey will be on the dust bin of history, a dead nation.

Syria
Syria will fall to the Islamic Sunni jihadists, driving out the Alluwate and Christians, as well as suppressing the Shiites. Syria will also become a major battle ground in the war with Israel that Turkey will launch.
Syrian patriots will attack and bog down Turkish forces, fighting them throughout much of Syria, especially in the cities.

Jordan
Jordan will ride out this year as a neutral nation, keeping down their own Sunni fanatics with brutal force. However, Jordan will have to deal with a mass influx of driven out West Bank Palestinians.

Egypt
With its tourist economy dead, the fanatic ran Egypt will face economic ruin. Much of the manufacturing will also flee, along with much of the intellectual capital. In a desperate bid to stave off a military led coup, the Islamics will help launch the war on Israel.

While the Israeli army will be busy fighting with the Turks on the north, the airforce will carve up much of the Egyptian army as it drives through the Sinai. Egyptian forces will reach the Israeli borders and will drive into southern Israel but will not get far, their supply lines over stretched and heavily damaged. Once Russia enters the war, Turkey's main forces will be pulled back to the Russian front and Israel will counter attack, driving the Egyptians out of the Sinai and closing the Suez Canal. Israeli missiles will destroy the dams along the Nile causing massive destruction downstream.

Egypt will pull out of the war within 3 months of entry, its economy destroyed, its key cities devastated, having lost the Sinai and with a military civil war between the moderate and Islamic forces.

Israel
Israel will suffer heavily in the war, its cities will be under heavy fire by missiles and aircraft bombs. Israel will survive, loosing over 20% of its population. It will take this opportunity to drive out the Muslim Palestinians from both Gaza and the West Bank.

Saudi Arabia and Iran
While at first supporting the Turkish drive, both with limited military assets and money, SA will soon be faced with a stark reality. With NATO's collapse and the US retreat, Saudi Arabia will have lost its main military protector and will watch helplessly as Turkey is dismembered, like a Christmas bird. Across the border, Iran will waste little time securing its positions in Iraq and will cause a major standoff over the Straights. Along the Persian Gulf, Iranian backed Shiites will become a major problem for the Sunni Arabs. The area will remain tense but mostly peaceful.

Libya
Endless civil war.

Sudan/South Sudan
This year will see a continuation of the war between these two states. Neither side will get to far, before Sudan collapses from its own civil war, between the black Arabs and the African tribes. Ethiopia will finally step in, crushing the last vestiges of the Sudanese military. South Sudan will become a protectorate of Ethiopia.

Ethiopia
Ethiopia will become the full power house of East Africa. It will crush the remains of the Sudanese military and its own will be on the borders of South Sudan. It will reenter the Somalia mess, beating down the Islamics and will form an active alliance with the Kenyan Christians driving out the Somali Islamic from northern Kenya, back into war torn Somalia.

South Africa
Taking advantage of the total global chaos, the Marxist fanatics of the black South African government will launch a final solution on the white population. The Boers will retreat into their own well armed enclaves, recreating the Boer republics and will fight it out with the SA forces, which themselves will lose their white components. There may be an alliance with the Zulus. Many non Boer whites will either join the Boers or flee the massacres.

Afghanistan
NATO forces in Afghanistan will face total catastrophe and the majority will be cut off and destroyed, unable to be evacuated out of Afghanistan. Iran will allow German, French and Italian forces out through its borders, as a show of good faith to the FR. US, UK and other forces will face disaster. Some will make it and be allowed into Uzbekistan, most will perish, along with the Karazai government.

Pakistan
Pakistan will collapse, as a full-fledged civil war gets under way. The Pakistani missile forces will secure the nuclear weapons and disarm them, so that the Islamic fanatics will not be able to use them, except as dirty bombs. Many will be smuggled out of the country to either India or Iran for safe keeping.

India
India will sit back and enjoy this year, working on its economy whose export markets will have collapsed. With China in the middle of a hard landing and Pakistan collapsing, there will be minimum security threats to India. Have fun this year.

China
China will have a full economic meltdown, or in today's jargon, a Hard Landing. What started with the property crash in October 2011, will only pick up steam. With the continued economic collapse of the EU and US, demand for exports will all but dry up. Internally, China will have hundreds of thousands of protests (last year it was measured at 180,000 protests alone). It will have a full insurgency again in East Turkmenistan (Xingjian) and in Tibet. These will be put down eventually, but the Chinese giant will be on its knees for years to come, dealing with the super Keynesian economic collapse and various street battles. What will arise in a half decade to a decade will be a much stronger and far more dangerous China.

Japan
Japan will spend the year rebuilding and reshaping Asia. With China temporarily out of the way, Japan will move quickly to first help S.Korea re-conquer N.Korea and two, to form a close alliance of the South China Sea, that is, with Taiwan, which Japan will recognize as an independent state, the Philippines and Vietnam. Japan will also work hard to entrench alliance with Russia, based on economics, while working for secession of Hawaii from a flailing and failing US. US forces will be asked to leave by the end of the year.

Koreas
This could finally be the year of reunification. With a weak new ruler and its master China on its knees, the N.Koreans will face heavy unrest and a military coup, which will lead to an "invitation" for S.Korea to enter the nation. Backed by Japan, S.Korea will reunify the nation, with little real fighting.

Stanislav Mishin

The article has been reprinted with the kind permission from the author and originally appear on his blog Mat Rodina

Дмитрий Судаков

[vector7]

Sinking superpower

Can US fight 3 new wars?

Last Updated: 11:47 PM, August 22, 2012
Posted: 11:09 PM, August 22, 2012

Arthur Herman

If Americans think that our police action in Afghanistan is a war, they better think again. Not one, not two, but three red-hot situations are brewing around the world that could very well lead to real shooting wars, with ships, submarines, warplanes and missiles all firing at each other — and very possibly at us.

Unfortunately, this administration has no plan or strategy for dealing with what could be simultaneous conflagrations in the Middle East and the Far East — and our overstretched military may be unable to contain the chaos.

Barack Obama ran as the man who would restore peace to America and the world. Four years later, we’re now closer to a series of full-blown conventional wars breaking out than at any time since the end of the Cold War.


Reuters

Will we be ready? Iran’s war games, like this one last year in the Strait of Hormuz, may set the stage for the real thing.

The first flashpoint that could explode in the next few months is Iran, where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told Israeli TV he fully expects to strike at the mullahs’ nuclear-weapons program before the American presidential election — some sources are saying as early as October.

The second is Syria, where after 17 months of inaction, President Obama has announced that the United States might have to intervene militarily to protect Syria’s rebels against dictator Bashar al-Assad. Assad’s allies Russia and China immediately warned that any US intervention would not be tolerated, meaning they could very well decide to jump into the growing civil war on Assad’s side.

China has also ignited the third hot spot by, in effect, declaring the entire South China Sea to be Chinese territory, a blatant act of aggression backed up by combat-ready naval patrols and installation of garrisons on key islands.

Japan and China came close to firing on each other in these oil and mineral-rich waters two years ago. Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines are now wondering what the United States, the guarantor of stability in the Pacific since 1945, intends to do about this Pacific Anschluss — just as the rest of the world is wondering where we stand if Israel strikes at Iran and triggers a wider Middle East conflict, or if Russia starts flying arms or even troops into Syria.

Now, Russia and China are principal players in all three crises, and that’s no coincidence.We are living in a world where the Obama White House has given Russia and China virtual carte blanche, including to keep Iran’s nuclear program in business and to block any action against Syria’s Assad.While the Russian and Chinese militaries have steadily built up their resources and strategic reach — including, in Russia’s case, sending warships into the Mediterranean and Caribbean — our armed forces have been bled by 10 years of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and four years of Obama budget cuts.

Moscow and Beijing figure that Americans no longer have the stomach for foreign entanglements, and while America’s vaunted military may still be large and impressive, it’s no longer up to sustained operations on land or at sea.That leaves them free to bully their neighbors and support fellow dictators like Ahmedinejad and Assad, without fear of US retaliation.And thus far they’ve been right.

What will a gun-shy administration and war-weary public do if American warplanes try to impose a no-fly zone over Syrian airspace and Russian MiG’s and surface-to-air missiles rise up to prevent it? Or if Iran answers an Israeli airstrike by blasting missiles at our warships patrolling the Hormuz Strait? Or if a Chinese submarine “accidentally” fires on an American frigate cruising off Vietnam’s central coast?

And what do we do if two, or even three, of these nightmare scenarios unfold at once?

Russia, China, Iran and Syria are counting on us to walk away. They sense that this administration has no policy other than putting off any decisive foreign-policy moves until after the November election, if then.

“Anyone who claims,” Obama has said, “that America’s influence is on the wane doesn’t know what they’re talking about.”Events in Iran, Syria and the South China Sea show he’s wrong, and that when the United States decides it doesn’t want to be a great power, it’s evil, not good, that gains — and war, not peace, that looms on the horizon.

Arthur Herman’s latest book is “Freedom’s Forge: How American Business Produced Victory in World War Two”