Iran the Next Battlefield - Thread Renamed

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US agrees to sell mini bunker-busters to Israel
America has agreed to provide Israel with 1,000 newly-designed 'mini' bunker-buster bombs in a deal that gives the Jewish state new military options for any attack on Iran's nuclear programme.

By Tim Butcher in Jerusalem
Last Updated: 1:46PM BST 15 Sep 2008

Israel is the recipient of more US aid than any other country Photo: PA
Last week Israel's request for a fresh supply of GBU-28 bunker-busters, each weighing two tons and capable of punching through reinforced concrete, was turned down by the US.
Instead, America has agreed to sell 1,000 versions of a much-smaller satellite-guided bomb capable of hitting underground targets, albeit at a shallower depth.
Iran's nuclear facilities are located at a number of separate locations, some of which are buried underground.
The United Nations nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, yesterday said Iran had increased its uranium enrichment programme and was not co-operating with an inspections process.
Its latest report came as dozens of Iranian warplanes carried out their most extensive military exercises for several months.
Israel has said it will not rule out the use of military force to prevent Iran, the sworn enemy of the Jewish state, from "going nuclear".
Israel is the recipient of more US aid than any other country, with a memorandum of understanding signed last year between the two countries committing Washington to provide $30 billion spread over the next decade.
This is up from the annual $2.4 billion package of recent years and reflects concerns in America that Israel faces a growing military threat, most acutely from Iran.
Throughout the 1990s Israel used to receive a joint military-civilian package of $2.4 billion in aid each year but recently it was shifted to be purely military aid.

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Bunker-busting bombs added to U.S. arsenal		The Boeing-developed Massive Ordnance Penetrator is a 30,000-pound bomb designed to burrow deep beneath the earth and detonate more than 2 tons of explosives.

By Tom Vanden Brook, USA TODAY
WASHINGTON — The Pentagon is expanding its arsenal of bunker-busting bombs to knock out suspected programs to make weapons of mass destruction, such as Iran's, interviews and military planning documents show.
The Pentagon's Defense Threat Reduction Agency, which leads efforts to combat weapons of mass destruction, has almost doubled its research spending on how to counter such weapons to $257 million in 2008 from $139 million in 2007, budget documents show.
Its highest-profile project is the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000-pound bomb designed to burrow deep beneath the earth and detonate more than 2 tons of explosives to breach bunkers.
The Air Force, which plans to test the 20-foot-long bomb this fall on the B-52 bomber, is also exploring how to drop the weapon from the B-2 warplane, said Vicki Stein, an Air Force spokeswoman.
The Pentagon is also buying smaller bunker-buster bombs to meet requests by commanders in the Middle East and Korea.
Air Force commanders sought help from the Defense Threat Reduction Agency to examine cave complexes in the Tora Bora region of Afghanistan that had been bombed by the Air Force, agency director James Tegnelia told Congress in March. Tora Bora is where U.S. and Afghan troops fought a lengthy battle in late 2001 against al-Qaeda forces allied with Osama bin Laden.
In a related effort, the agency has identified planes with "Angel Fire" spy technology as key to its efforts, according to budget documents. Developed by the Air Force and Marine Corps to counter roadside bombs, Angel Fire technology gives military analysts the ability to zoom in on targets and replay imagery to determine changes over time.
The bomb and spy plane seem aimed at Iran's efforts to build nuclear weapons, says John Pike, director of Globalsecurity.org. Producing enriched uranium, the key ingredient in nuclear weapons, is thought to be the focus of a facility at Natanz, he said. Iran has maintained electricity is the goal of its nuclear program.
The Air Force will not reveal specific targets for the penetrator, Stein said. She said there is an urgent need for the bomb "to defeat hard and deeply buried targets" that they can't reach. The bomb is designed to destroy facilities used by "hostile states" to build and store such weapons, their delivery systems and command and control facilities, she said. The request has been made by the military's Central Command, which has responsibility for Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan.
Commanders do not need the huge bomb for an imminent attack, says former Air Force secretary Michael Wynne. Instead, the need for such a large bomb became apparent in Iraq when smaller bombs failed to destroy hardened bunkers buried deep underground by former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.
Angel Fire technology, according to Defense Department documents, allows viewers to zoom in on a target and use a "Tivo-like" function to replay previous events that occurred at the site.
That capability would allow military planners to observe a site like Natanz, Pike said. That would allow them to target workers when they congregated in one spot, such as a housing complex. Killing those workers could set back their program for years, he said.

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Russia: Preparation for launch of Iran nuclear plant in final stage

By The Associated Press

Last update - 22:13 08/09/2008

The Russian state-run company building Iran's first nuclear plant said Monday that preparations for the reactor's launch had entered their final stage.

The director of the state-run Atomstroiexport company, Leonid Reznikov, said that by the end of the year, the company will have taken steps that will make the launch of the Bushehr plant irreversible.

Company spokeswoman Irina Yesipova said the launch date will be determined after talks between Russian and Iranian nuclear officials this month.

Iranian officials have said that Bushehr would be launched this fall.

The United Nations nuclear watchdog - the International Atomic Energy Agency - declined comment.

Nonproliferation expert David Albright, whose Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security tracks countries under nuclear suspicion, suggested that the steps referred to by Russia probably involved the loading of fuel into the reactor.

He said there are no irreversible steps, but taking the fuel out after it was loaded would be difficult because it would require dealing with irradiated fuel and a contaminated reactor core.

Iran is paying Russia more than $1 billion to build the 1,000-megawatt light-water reactor. Construction has been held up by disputes between Tehran and Moscow, publicly described as centering on questions of payment and the schedule for shipping nuclear fuel.

The United States and other Western nations that fear Iran is seeking to acquire nuclear weapons have criticized Russia for building Bushehr.

Washington softened its position after Iran agreed to return spent nuclear fuel to Russia to ensure it does not extract materials that could be used to make weapons. The United States and its Western allies also agreed to drop any reference to Bushehr in sanctions resolutions passed by the UN Security Council.

Russia says the plant's contract is in line with all international agreements aimed at preventing nuclear weapons proliferation.

U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack did not comment directly on the
Russian statements but pointed out that the deal between Russia and Iran on Bushehr has long been in place.

"In a sense, it is a kind of model for Iran being able to have civilian nuclear energy without the fuel cycle," he said. "Quite frankly, the international system has at this point decided they can't be trusted."

Related articles:
· Iran building second nuclear plant, says top Iranian official
· FM: Russian fuel deliveries could help Iran develop nuclear arms
· Iranian MP: Tehran to seek international bids for 19 atomic power plants
· ANALYSIS: Russia having second thoughts on nuclear aid to Iran

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http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j...SZqxgD93781PG0

US plans to sell Israel 1,000 bunker-buster bombs

By AMY TEIBEL – 7 hours ago


JERUSALEM (AP) — The U.S. plans to sell Israel 1,000 buster-bunker bombs which Israeli military experts said Monday could provide a powerful new weapon against underground arsenals in Lebanon or Gaza.


The experts said they doubted, however, that the bombs could be used to deliver a crippling blow against Iran's nuclear program.


In announcing the proposed $77 million deal, which still needs Congressional approval, the U.S. Defense Department said the sale of the Boeing GBU-39 smart bombs would be consistent with the U.S. interest of assisting Israel "to develop and maintain a strong and ready self-defense capability." The Pentagon issued a release on the planned sale on Sept. 9.


Because it is a precision weapon that generates far less collateral damage than heavier munitions, "this bomb is going to be the general-purpose bomb of the next generation," said Yiftah Shapir, a military analyst at Tel Aviv's Institute of National Security Studies. He said possible targets would include "Katyusha launchers in Lebanon or Qassam (rocket) launchers in Gaza."


Shlomo Brom, the Israeli military's former chief of strategic planning, noted an increasing tendency to place weapons underground.


In Israel's 2006 war against Lebanon's Hezbollah guerrilla group, "one of our problems had been that they put many of the rocket launchers in bunkers and fortifications underground ," Brom said.


One hardened target the military went after in that war was the bunker of Hezbollah chief Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, Israeli security officials have said. Nasrallah survived the fighting, but has been in hiding since the war.


Past U.S. sales of bunker-buster bombs to Israel have been construed as a veiled threat against Iran's nuclear program.


But Brom and Shapir said they did not think they would be used against Iran, where key nuclear facilities such as the uranium enrichment plant at Nantanz are buried deep and hardened by yards of concrete.


"You would need something a lot heavier," he said. The GBU-39 can penetrate 6 feet of concrete, and "6 feet is not enough," he said.


Despite a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate that concluded Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003, Israel and many in the United States still believe Iran's nuclear program is geared toward developing weapons. Iran insists the program is only for producing electricity.


Israel hopes Iran can be induced through sanctions and diplomacy to scale back its nuclear ambitions, but has not ruled out a military strike.


The GBU-39 is "a weapon Israel needs for general purposes," said Shapir, who questioned Israel's capability to deal a blow to Iran's nuclear program. "But attaching this thing to an attack on Iran is propaganda, in my view."

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http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satelli...cle%2FShowFull

Sep 14, 2008 17:42 | Updated Sep 15, 2008 1:13 Israel slated to buy US smart bombs

By YAAKOV KATZ

The US Department of Defense has notified Congress of a potential sale to Israel of 1,000 smart bombs capable of penetrating underground bunkers, which would likely be used in the event of a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.



The notification to Congress was made over the weekend by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, the branch of the Pentagon responsible for evaluating foreign military sales. Congress has 30 days to object to the deal.


The deal is valued at $77 million and the principal contractor would be Boeing Integrated Defense Systems.


The bomb Israel wants is the GBU-39, developed in recent years by the US as a small-diameter bomb for low-cost, high-precision and low-collateral damage strikes.


Israel has also asked for 150 mounting carriages, 30 guided test vehicles and two instructors to train the air force in loading the bombs on its aircraft.


The GPS-guided GBU-39 is said to be one of the most accurate bombs in the world.



The 113 kg. bomb has the same penetration capabilities as a normal 900 kg. bomb, although it has only 22.7 kg. of explosives. At just 1.75 meters long, its small size increases the number of bombs an aircraft can carry and the number of targets it can attack in a sortie.



Tests conducted in the US have proven that the bomb is capable of penetrating at least 90 cm. of steel-reinforced concrete. The GBU-39 can be used in adverse weather conditions and has a standoff range of more than 110 km. due to pop-out wings.


In its recommendation to Congress, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency wrote that Israel's strategic position was "vital to the United States' interests throughout the Middle East."


"It is vital to the US national interests to assist Israel to develop and maintain a strong and ready self-defense capability. This proposed sale is consistent with those objectives," the statement read.


The agency's announcement came amid growing concern that the Pentagon was not willing to sell Israel advanced military platforms such as bunker-buster missiles in an effort to dissuade Jerusalem from attacking Iran's nuclear facilities.


Bunker-buster missiles would be a fundamental component of an air strike against Iran, since many of the nuclear facilities, such as the Natanz uranium enrichment complex, have been built in underground, heavily fortified bunkers.


During the Second Lebanon War, Israel reportedly received an emergency shipment of bunker-buster missiles from the US to use against underground Hizbullah facilities.


Yiftah Shapir, from the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, said the GBU-39 is one of the most advanced in the world and would improve Israel's standoff fire capabilities.


"The bomb is extremely accurate," he said. "All you have to do is punch in the coordinates, fire and forget."


He said they could be used to attack Iranian underground facilities like Natanz but that they could only penetrate a few meters.


"Hundreds of these would have to be used in an attack on Natanz for it to be successful," Shapir said.

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http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1019989.html

Last update - 14:34 11/09/2008

Israel asks U.S. for arms, air corridor to attack Iran

By Amos Harel and Aluf Benn, Haaretz Correspondents

Tags: U.S., bunker buster, Iran

The security aid package the United States has refused to give Israel for the past few months out of concern that Israel would use it to attack nuclear facilities in Iran included a large number of "bunker-buster" bombs, permission to use an air corridor to Iran, an advanced technological system and refueling planes. Officials from both countries have been discussing the Israeli requests over the past few months. Their rejection would make it very difficult for Israel to attack Iran, if such a decision is made. About a month ago, Haaretz reported that the Bush administration had turned down an Israeli request for certain security items that could upgrade Israel's capability to attack Iran. The U.S. administration reportedly saw the request as a sign preparations were moving ahead for an Israeli attack on Iran.

Diplomatic and security sources indicated to Haaretz that the list of components Israel included:

Bunker-buster GBU-28 bombs: In 2005, the U.S. said it was supplying these bombs to Israel. In August 2006, The New York Times reported that the U.S. had expedited the dispatch of additional bombs at the height of the Second Lebanon War. The bombs, which weigh 2.2 tons each, can penetrate six meters of reinforced concrete. Israel appears to have asked for a relatively large number of additional bunker-busters, and was turned down.

Air-space authorization: An attack on Iran would apparently require passage through Iraqi air space. For this to occur, an air corridor would be needed that Israeli fighter jets could cross without being targeted by American planes or anti-aircraft missiles. The Americans also turned down this request. According to one account, to avoid the issue, the Americans told the Israelis to ask Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki for permission, along the lines of "If you want, coordinate with him."

Refueling planes. An air attack on Iran would require refueling of fighter jets on the way back. According to a report on Channel 10 a few weeks ago, the U.S. rejected an Israeli request for more advanced refueling tankers, of the Boeing 767 model.

The refueling craft the Israel Air Force now uses are very outmoded, something that make it difficult to operate at long distances from Israel. Even if the Americans were to respond favorably to such a request, the process could take a few years.

The IDF recently reported that it is overhauling a Boeing 707 that previously served as the prime minister's plane to serve as a refueling aircraft.

Advanced technological systems. The Israeli sources declined to give any details on this point.

The Israeli requests were discussed during President George W. Bush's visit to Israel in May, as well as during Defense Minister Ehud Barak's visit to Washington in July. In a series of meetings at a very senior level, following Bush's visit, the Americans made clear to the Israelis that for now they are sticking to the diplomatic option to halt the Iranian nuclear project and that Jerusalem does not have a green light from Washington for an attack on Iran.

However, it appears that in compensation for turning down Israel's "offensive" requests, the U.S. has agreed to strengthen its defensive systems.

During the Barak visit, it was agreed that an advanced U.S. radar system would be stationed in the Negev, and the order to send it was made at that time. The system would double to 2,000 kilometers the range of identification of missiles launched from the direction of Iran, and would be connected to an American early warning system.

The system is to be operated by American civilians as well as two American soldiers. This would be the first permanent U.S. force on Israeli soil.

A senior security official said the Americans were preparing "with the greatest speed" to make good on their promise, and the systems could be installed within a month.

The Israeli security source said he believed Washington was moving ahead quickly on the request because it considered it very important to restrain Israel at this time.

At the beginning of the year, the Israeli leadership still considered it a reasonable possibility that Bush would decide to attack Iran before the end of his term.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, in private discussions, even raised the possibility that the U.S. was considering an attack in the transition period between the election in November and the inauguration of the new president in January 2009.

However, Jerusalem now assumes that likelihood of this possibility is close to nil, and that Bush will use the rest of his time in office to strengthen what he defines as the Iraqi achievement, following the relative success of American efforts there over the past year and a half.

Related articles:
Iran-Israel arms race heats up, both boost naval capabilities
Peres warns Olmert: Attack on Iran could spark wide-scale war

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	Iran scoffs at U.S., Israeli military threats
	http://en.rian.ru/world/20080916/116845582.html

TEHRAN, September 16 (RIA Novosti) - Israel and the United States lack the ability to commit an act of aggression against Iran in an effort to destroy its nuclear installations, the Iranian president's senior military advisor said Tuesday.

"The Zionist regime lacks the diplomatic, economic and social capability to launch a wide-scale war," General Yahya Rahim Safavi said in response to threats by Israel to attack Iran's nuclear facilities.

He said Iran's armed forces, including the Revolutionary Guards, and 11 million members of the Basij, the Guards' voluntary force, "are fully prepared to deal with any attack."
With regard to the United States, Safavi said its 200,000-strong contingent in the region was deployed in such a way that it actually posed "a serious danger" to the U.S. itself
"There is no doubt that the Americans, who are stuck in Afghanistan, Iraq and Georgia, will not open a fourth front," he said, referring to a possible attack on Iran.

Iran launched a three-day series of Air Force and missile-defense exercises throughout the country on Monday.
Tehran has conducted several high-profile war games this year, while promising a powerful retaliation in the event of any act of aggression against the country. The United States and Israel have consistently refused to rule out the possibility of military action against Iran over its refusal to halt its nuclear program.

The country recently took delivery of 29 Russian-made Tor-M1 air defense missile systems under a $700 million contract signed in late 2005. Russia has also trained Iranian Tor-M1 specialists, including radar operators and crew commanders.

In July, Iran successfully launched an upgraded Shahab-3 ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 km (1,240 miles), and several missiles with a range of 350 kilometers (217 miles) as part of the Great Prophet III military exercise in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, drawing a new wave of international criticism.

Iran is currently under three sets of relatively mild UN Security Council sanctions for defying demands to halt uranium enrichment, which it says it needs purely for electricity generation despite Western accusations that the program is geared toward weapon production.

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Russia envoy warns NATO on air space to Afghanistan

Thu Sep 18, 2008 10:05am EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNe...edName=topNews












KABUL (Reuters) - Russia threatened to block NATO from using its air space for operations in Afghanistan if member states did not stop "hostile" policies toward Moscow, the Kremlin's top diplomat in Kabul said.

"(Russian air space) is still open, but if the NATO countries continue to their hostile policies with regard to Russia, definitely this issue will happen," Zamir Kabulov told BBC radio in an interview aired on Thursday.
NATO imports most of its logistics via Pakistan to Afghanistan, but also uses Russia's air space for some cargo.

The 26-member alliance upset Russia by saying its use of force in a brief war with Georgia last month was disproportionate. NATO has also said Georgia will eventually be allowed join the alliance. Russia is fiercely opposed to further NATO expansion.

NATO was not immediately available for comment.
Kabulov said the United States had made far too many mistakes since toppling the Taliban government in 1991.

"The main one ... is that it did not work with the Afghan government and the Afghan nation," Kabulov said.

"During the past 6-½ years, instead of strengthening the Afghan government, the Afghan armed forces and the Afghan economy, they strengthened their military presence and this is a main and fundamental mistake."

More than 71,000 foreign troops under the command of NATO and the U.S. military are stationed in Afghanistan where the Taliban has made a come back since 2005.

The former Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, pulling its forces out some 10 years later in the face of resistance from mostly Western-backed Afghan factions.

(Reporting by Sayed Salahuddin; Editing by Alistair Scrutton and Jeremy Laurence)

© Thomson Reuters 2008 All rights reserved

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Iran official says missiles can reach ships in Gulf

http://www.reuters.com/article/world...ldNews&sp=true
Thu Sep 18, 2008 12:18pm EDT










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TEHRAN (Reuters) - A top adviser of Iran's supreme leader has warned that in the event of war all ships passing through the oil-rich Gulf region would be within the reach of Iran's missiles, a government newspaper reported on Thursday.

Iran, embroiled in a standoff with the West over its nuclear ambitions, has said it could respond to any military attack by closing the strait at the southern end of the Gulf through which about 40 percent of the world's traded oil passes.

The United States, whose naval Fifth Fleet is based in the Gulf state of Bahrain, has vowed to keep shipping lanes opened.

The West accuses Tehran of seeking to build nuclear warheads but Iran, the world's fourth largest oil producer, says its aim is to master technology to make electricity. Washington has not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to end the row.

"At a time of war no ship can pass through the region of the Persian Gulf without being in the reach of the Revolutionary Guards' coast-to-sea missiles," Yahya Rahim-Safavi, a senior military adviser of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was quoted by the Iran daily as saying.

He said earlier this week that Khamenei had put the elite Guards in charge of defending the Gulf against any attacks and that they would not hesitate to "confront foreign forces".

The comments came amid persistent speculation about a possible U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Iran has dismissed reports of such an attack, but says it would respond by hitting U.S. interests and Israel if attacked.

Iran's air force and Revolutionary Guards this week held a "joint defensive exercise in preparation for a potential attack," the state Press TV station said on its web site, adding that dozens of fighter jets and other aircraft took part.

Quoting a Guards statement, it said "upgraded missile and anti-aircraft systems" had been tested during the war games.

On Sunday Iran will parade its Shahab missiles, Iranian media also reported. The Shahab 3 missile reportedly has a range that could reach Israel.

"By staging this parade, we are ready to tell the world ... that we are totally ready to defend our Islamic system and country," the semi-official Fars news agency quoted the commander in charge of organizing the parade, as saying. The Sunday parade marks the start of the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war.

Alongside the regular army, Iran's Revolutionary Guards are viewed as guardians of the Islamic ruling system and have a separate command and their own air, sea and land units.

(Reporting by Zahra Hosseinian, writing by Fredrik Dahl, editing by Robert Hart)

© Thomson Reuters 2008 All rights reserved

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Russia, China, Germany reject US evidence of Iran's covert nuke program

DEBKAfile Special Analysis
September 20, 2008, 1:30 PM (GMT+02:00)

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5595

Euphrates pipes for destroyed Syrian reactor designed to be part of Iran's military program
Russia, China and Germany refuse to countenance tougher sanctions against Iran notwithstanding the International Atomic Energy Agency’s report from Vienna that its inspections of suspect activities and covert projects were stalled by Tehran’s non-cooperation. Diplomats for the five permanent Security Council members and Germany, meeting at the State Department Friday, Sept 19, therefore failed to agree on a new round of sanctions ahead of their foreign ministers’ meeting at UN Center next week.

The meeting avoided discussing the timing and content of a fourth round of sanctions, only broadly calling on Iran - for the umpteenth time after numerous rejections - to accept the incentives on offer for halting uranium enrichment and cooperating with UN inspections.

The nuclear watchdog reported that Tehran had stalled its efforts to establish whether or not Iran was developing nuclear warheads, enriching uranium for military purposes, testing nuclear explosives or building nuclear-capable missiles.

Tuesday, Sept 16, the UN watchdog gave a closed meeting of the 35-nation board of the International Atomic Energy Agency photos and documents proving Iran had tried to refit a long-distance Shehab missile to carry a nuclear payload. The also produced calculations and diagrams from Iranian missile and nuclear experts’ computers on nuclear detonations and how to build nuclear-capable missiles.

The next day, Wednesday, CIA chief Michael Hayden disclosed that the destruction of the Syrian reactor - as a result of intelligence collaboration with a “foreign partner” who first identified the facility’s purpose - spoiled a project “that could have provided Syria with plutonium for nuclear weapons.”

He did not name the foreign partner, but the reference to Israel was obvious. He also said the reactor was similar to the North Korean model.

"We were able last year to spoil a big secret, a project that could have provided Syria with plutonium for nuclear weapons," Hayden said, adding: “When pipes for a massive cooling system were laid out to the Euphrates River in the spring of 2007, there would have been little doubt this was a nuclear reactor."

The Bush administration released all this data in order to back up the IAEA report and tell the international community that the US and Israel were furnished with more intelligence confirming Iran’s covert nuclear projects and the clandestine partnershipn between Tehran, Damascus and Pyongyang. North Korea was also made aware that Washington had not missed its preparations for re-activating its nuclear reactor.

Nuclear watchdog officials asked Tehran to explain why its experts were busy making calculations for military projects, claimed to be non-existent. No answer has been forthcoming as yet. The Iranian representative only said the materials had been forged by certain parties as a provocation.

Nonetheless, Russian, Chinese and German diplomats attending the IAEA board meeting last Tuesday insisted that the evidence they saw did not prove Iran was engaged in developing nuclear weapons.

Despite the fact that leading world powers have tied themselves in knots to avoid keeping nuclear weapons out of Iran’s hands, Israel’s prime minister Shimon Peres plans to deliver a speech at the UN General Assembly next week announcing that Israel is against resorting to military action against Iran and relies on sanctions.

DEBKAfile’s political circles stress that the Israeli government has never confirmed the position embodied in his address.

Ahead of his address to the General Assembly, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, grandstanding as always, challenged the American presidential candidates to a public debate "over global issues, in the presence of the media at the UN. He also said that while "some say the idea of Greater Israel has expired, I say the idea of lesser Israel has expired, too."

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Ahmadinejad: We'll break enemies' hands before they pull trigger

Iranian president states his country seeks friendship and peace, but warns of consequences if his country is attacked

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...599671,00.html

Dudi Cohen

Published:	09.21.08, 10:54 / Israel News

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned Sunday that "if anyone dares invade Iran's territory or damage its legal interests, our armed forces will break their hands before they can pull the trigger."

Speaking at a military parade marking 28 years since the Iran-Iraq War, Ahmadinejad stated that Iran "aspires for peace, but it is not in any position to be even a little lenient to the thugs that are its enemies."

In light of the fear of an airstrike on its nuclear facilities, Tehran held last week a wide-scale antiaircraft forces' exercise.

General Ahmad Mighani of the Iranian air force, was quoted by the Fars news agency as saying that "if Iran is attacked, it will deliver a crushing blow to the enemy…We will surprise the enemy and make them regret they attacked."

Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said that the drill, held by the air force and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, was meant to improve the "defensive, tactical and operational abilities of the forces."

Ahmadinajed explained to his listeners on Sunday why Iran is being isolated by the world. "The enemies' psychological war is the result of their fear and is aimed at maintaining their front," he claimed.

He went on to say that the economic sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic after it refused to suspend its nuclear plan were inefficient. "Iran's armed forces can provide all they need for defense and deterrence."

Iran was expected to present its ground-to-ground missiles during the parade, including three Shahab missiles capable of reaching Israel. Last week it was reported that Tehran was working to modify the missile cone to fit a nuclear bomb.

Later Sunday, the Iranian president is expected to leave for New York in order to attend the United Nations General Assembly. His planned visited has sparked a row in the United States.

A planned rally against Ahmadinejad's visit has raised tensions in the US election campaign, after Democratic Senator Hillary Clinton and Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin were both invited to attend.

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IAEA chief: Iran could be hiding nukes
Sep. 22, 2008
AP , THE JERUSALEM POST
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency warned Monday that he cannot guarantee that Iran is not running a secret nuclear program, comments that appeared to reflect a high level of frustration with stonewalling of his investigators.

A senior Iranian envoy accused the United States of trying to use the IAEA as a tool in Washington's confrontation with Teheran. Iran, he said, has demonstrated full cooperation with the agency. Allegations of nuclear weapons work by Teheran is based on forged documents and the issue is closed, the envoy said.

The two men spoke at the start of a 35-nation board IAEA meeting. With time running out before Teheran develops potential nuclear weapons capacity, some worry that Israel or the US might resort to military strikes if they believe all diplomatic options have been exhausted.

And with Teheran showing no signs of giving up uranium enrichment or heeding other international demands, the diplomatic window appears to be closing.

ElBaradei said Iran's stonewalling of his agency was a "serious concern."
"Iran needs to give the agency substantive information" to clear up suspicions, he told the closed board meeting, in comments made available to reporters. He rejected the Iranian suggestion that the IAEA probe could expose non-nuclear military secrets, saying the IAEA "does not in any way seek to 'pry' into Iran's conventional or missile-related military activities."

"We need, however, to make use of all relevant information to be able to confirm that no nuclear material is being used for nuclear weapons purposes," he said, urging Iran to "implement all measures required to build confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear program at the earliest possible date."

If Teheran fails to do so, the IAEA "will not be able to provide credible assurances about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran," he said.

Diplomats at the gathering described ElBaradei's comments as unusually blunt.

Outside the meeting, an indignant Ali Ashgar Soltanieh, the chief Iranian delegate to the IAEA, rejected suggestions his country was hiding something, and accused Washington of hijacking the agency for an anti-Iran campaign.
"The international community and all member states of the IAEA are frustrated with this kind of United States actions in the IAEA," he told reporters. "The Americans are every day isolating themselves.

"Iran is of course very advanced in missile activities and technology," he said. "But there is no activity at all related to nuclear weapons."

Ahead of the meeting, hard-line Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared that Iran's military will "break the hand" of anyone targeting the country's nuclear facilities.

Iran insists its nuclear activities are geared only toward generating power. But Israel says the Islamic Republic could have enough nuclear material to make its first bomb within a year. The US estimates Teheran is at least two years away from that stage.

Physicist and former UN nuclear inspector David Albright says says Teheran could reach weapons capacity in as little as 6 months through uranium enrichment.

An IAEA report drawn up for the IAEA board meeting says that Teheran has increased the number of centrifuges used to process uranium to nearly 4,000 from 3,000 just a few months ago.

But Albright, whose Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security closely tracks suspect secret proliferators, says he has also been able to extrapolate other information from the report that is less obvious but of at least equal concern.

Iran, he says, has managed to iron out most of the bugs in the intensely complicated process of enrichment that often saw the centrifuges breaking down. The machines, he says "now appear to be running at approximately 85 percent of their stated target capacity, a significant increase over previous rates."

That, he says means, they can produce more enriched uranium faster. And while the IAEA says that the machines have spewed out only low-enriched material suitable solely for nuclear fuel, producing enough of that can make it easy to "break out" quickly by reprocessing it to weapons- grade uranium suitable for the fissile core of warhead.

To date, Iran has produced nearly 500 kilograms of low enriched uranium, said the report - close to what Albright says is the 700 kilogram - minimum needed to produce the 20-25 kilograms needed for a simple nuclear bomb under optimal conditions.

And with Iran's centrifuges running ever more smoothly, it "is progressing toward this capability and can be expected to reach it in six months to two years," says Albright.

Additional work - making a crude bomb to contain the uranium - would take no more than a "several months," he said.

But that work could be done secretly and consecutively with the last stages of weapons-grade enrichment. With Iran limiting access of IAEA inspectors to facilities it has declared to the agency, the UN nuclear monitor is blind-sided in efforts to establish whether such covert atomic work is going on.

This article can also be read at http://www.jpost.com /servlet/Satellite?cid=1222017355103&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

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Top security official warns Iran against involving GCC in nuclear conflict

AP

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been outspoken about his disapproval of US threats of attack on Iran.

By Duraid Al Baik, Associate Editor Published: September 22, 2008, 13:24 http://archive.gulfnews.com/region/Iran/10246921.html

Dubai: A top security officer warned Iran against involving the GCC in any conflict with the West, saying that the GCC will react strongly to any threat against its stability. In a rare reaction to Iranian leader's threats, Lt.Col Dahi Khalfan Tamim, Commander-in-Chief of Dubai Police, told Gulf News that Gulf countries respect Iran as a neighbouring Muslim country, but will not accept any hostility that has direct impact on the lives of people in the region. "Our strong relations with Iranians don't mean that government in the GCC will not react strongly to any work that will endanger its social stability and economic prosperity," he warned. He also acknowledged that Iran might have sleeping agents in the region. "My advice to them [is to] keep them sleepy because it is not in the interests of Iranians in the region to destabilize host countries," he said. Khalfan said Iran's conflict with the US over its nuclear enrichment programme should not involve the GCC. "We are in favour a peaceful resolution because this would be in the interest of all people in the rim of the Arabian Gulf, including Iranians. The wise leaders of Iran should try to come out of this confrontation with a minimum damage. This doesn't mean that they [Iranians] can cut the life vein of the region just because they can't confront the US directly," Khalfan said. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has repeatedly warned against threats of attacks on the country, saying the Iranian military will take strong action. "We believe Iranian leaders who do not complicate issues with their fiery statements will not allow to severe their relations with the nations in the Gulf, because such a move will backfire on their nation," he said.

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Bipartisan report: U.S. Iran strike feasible

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtri...0547_09_22.asp

Monday, September 22, 2008

WASHINGTON — The United States could destroy Iran's nuclear weapons program, a report said.

The Bipartisan Policy Center has concluded that the United States, despite its preference for diplomacy, must not abandon its military option against Iran. The center said the U.S. military's ability to damage Iran was greater than that realized by the Teheran leadership.
"A military strike is a feasible option and must remain a last resort to retard Iran's nuclear development," the report said.

The report, prepared under the guidance of former Senators Daniel Coats, a Republican, and Democrat Charles Robb, said the next U.S. president must update plans to attack Iran, Middle East Newsline reported. The report by an 11-member task force, released on Sept. 19, said such a U.S. strike could significantly hamper any Iranian nuclear weapons program.

"However, unless sustained by repeated strikes against rebuilt or newly discovered sites over a period of years, military action alone is likely only to delay Iranian nuclear development, while entailing risks of retaliation, which could quickly escalate to full-scale war," the report said.

The task force said Iran could retaliate with massive Hamas and Hizbullah rocket attacks against Israel. On the other hand, the report said Iran's nuclear weapons program could turn the Middle East state into a global threat.

"Should the Iranian leadership feel itself secure behind a nuclear shield, they may increase both their overt and covert aggression," the report said. "The repercussions of such Iranian assertion would be felt not only throughout the Middle East, but also -- because of Iran's position on the Strait of Hormuz -- on the world energy markets. Iran would then become not just a regional threat, but an international one."

Titled "Meeting the Challenge: U.S. Policy Toward Iranian Nuclear Development," the report said a U.S. military option would require "robust planning and military presence." The report said a feasible military option could force Iran to accept a diplomatic solution to the nuclear crisis.

"Such an integrated approach can reduce the potential need to employ actual military force by convincing Iran that any such confrontation would be counter-productive, and that it faces determined international and regional solidarity against Teheran," the report said. "Diplomacy would come into play in paving the way for a credible deterrent and to build the capacity needed to actually carry out military action, if needed."The report said the United States must draft a deterrent policy against Iran. The task force said Washington must threaten nuclear retaliation for any nuclear attack by Iran or its proxies. Another option called for massive U.S. conventional retaliation with assistance from Gulf Cooperation Council states.

"The U.S. administration may need to announce that it reserves the right to respond to any attack against itself or its allies with overwhelming force and, perhaps, nuclear weapons." the report said.

"Alternatively, the U.S. government could consider a declaration of automaticity: In the event Iran or any suspect proxy utilizes nuclear weapons, Iran will be hit with a devastating retaliatory strike. In the interim, though, this requires preparation for such a response."

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Iran Escapes Scrutiny as US-Russian Bickering Continues

International Relations | 24.09.2008



Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Iran's uranium enrichment will continue after a meeting of world powers was called off

The international community won't be able to pressure Iran for details about its nuclear program after Moscow scrapped a meeting planned for later in the week at the UN, German Foreign Minister Steinmeier said.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said Tuesday, Sept. 23, that world powers would find it "difficult" to influence Tehran after Russia cancelled a ministers' meeting slated for Thursday.

"There is no question that without such a meeting, which we urgently need in the current situation, it will be more difficult to bring the necessary international pressure to bear," he told reporters.

"I hope and expect that this is not the end of the 3+3 Group's efforts," Steinmeier said, referring to attempts by Britain, France, Germany, the United States, China and Russia to convince Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program.

No Iranian fires to put out



Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: There are enough issues to address at the UN without discussing Iran, the Russians said
The US State Department said Tuesday the planned ministerial-level session on Iran on the sidelines of the General Assembly was now off, after Moscow said it would not take part. Russian officials confirmed the meeting's cancellation.

"We do not see any fire that requires us to toss everything aside and meet to discuss Iran's nuclear program in the middle of a packed week at the United Nations General Assembly," the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Russia's decision appeared to be a tit-for-tat move after the United States refused to take part in a Group of Eight meeting that would have included Russia, said Germany's foreign minister.

How to move forward

Relations between Washington and Moscow have been tense since the five-day Georgia war last month. The US has recently attempted to exclude Russia from several G8 conference calls and called for internationally isolating Moscow.

In his final speech at the General Assembly, US President George W. Bush accused Russia of having violated the UN charter with what his administration has called a premeditated invasion of Georgia, a former Soviet territory.

The Russian Foreign Ministry called on the US to declare how it intended to maintain relations with Russia.

"It would be very desirable for Washington to finally decide what it wants in its relations with Moscow," the foreign ministry said in a statement. "If it wants to punish Russia, this is one thing. If it agrees we have common interests ... that is another."

Iranian enrichment continues



Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Ahmadinejad said Iran would continue its nuclear program
While officials in Moscow and Washington mull their scope of their future relations, Steinmeier said "silence" between Russia and other world powers "does not solve any problems."

"The case of Iran shows even more that we must remain in talks, with Russia as well, and demonstrate the necessary pressure, the decisiveness and the resolve of the international community," he said.

Despite three rounds of UN Security Council sanctions, Iran continues to defy demands that it halt uranium enrichment -- a process the West and Israel fear is being used to make an atomic bomb.

Tehran insists that its nuclear energy program is entirely peaceful and aimed at generating electricity.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told the General Assembly on Tuesday that Tehran would pursue nuclear technology despite Western "bullying."

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,...666857,00.html

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Big Six Meeting On Iran Called Off As Russia Complains US Is Seeking Punishment

September 23rd, 2008 Posted By Lftbhndagn.


September 23, 2008

The Australian contributed to this report

NEW YORK: The US and five other powers have called off plans for high-level talks at the UN this week to debate further sanctions against Iran, after Russia complained of American attempts to “punish” it.

The move came after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad promised to pursue nuclear technology despite Western “bullying”.

Iran “will resist the bullying and has defended and will continue to defend its rights,” Mr Ahmadinejad said in a defiant speech to the UN General Assembly.

In a clear reference to the US and its allies, he said: “They oppose other nations’ progress and tend to monopolise technologies and to use those monopolies in order to impose their will on other nations.”

He also lashed out at Israel, saying “the Zionist regime is on a definite slope to collapse and there is no way for it to get out of the cesspool created by itself and its supporters”.

Despite three rounds of UN security council sanctions, Iran continues to defy calls by the US and its Western allies to halt uranium enrichment - a process the West and Israel fear is being used to make an atomic bomb.

Iran says it aims only for peaceful civilian nuclear energy.
The cancellation of the meeting on Iran in New York involving US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her counterparts from Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany came amid rising US-Russian tensions over the crisis in Georgia.

“There is not going to be a P5-plus-one ministers meeting” on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack told reporters.

The permanent five members of the UN Security Council plus Germany were to meet on Thursday to consider possible further sanctions against Iran over its disputed nuclear program.

However, Mr McCormack said Dr Rice would hold a one-on-one meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Wednesday.

The Russian foreign ministry said earlier that Moscow was against the planned meeting of the six powers, referring to US attempts to “punish” Russia, apparently over its August 8 incursion into Georgia.

The statement appeared to indicate it was walking away from the meeting.

Speaking in New York before the US announcement, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said that the possible cancellation of the ministerial meeting would make it “difficult” to bring pressure to bear on Iran.

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Russia Benefits from Enabling Iranian-Israeli Conflict

September 24, 2008...2:39 am

Jump to Comments
In a speech addressing the UN, Iranian leader/Mullah Puppet, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, vowed to continue with Iran’s current nuclear objectives. What exactly those objectives consist of are controversial and creating an atmosphere where the possibility of violent intervention becomes more and more a real possibility. I know most of the World was and still is hoping that diplomacy will win out and cooler heads will prevail.

Russia in its recent posture to display itself as a renewed dominate superpower in the European continent has not helped by lobbying against strict economic and technology sanctions against Iran, which UN peacemakers would use in an attempt to corral in the Ahmadinejad push to become a nuclear weapon power.

Considering Iranian leaderships’ overtly hostile posture regarding Israel and its right to exist, I cannot imagine Israel allowing events to progress to the point - Iran actually develops nuclear weapons capability.

Factor in the recent Russian attempt at hobbling an unusual allied UN effort to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of the ruling radical Iranian mullahs and their puppet Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; it makes a violent Israeli process of curtailing Iranian nuclear capabilities closer to a reality than an apprehension. And I could not fault Israel if they felt pressured by current Iranian Leaderships anti Israeli rhetoric in to making an attack on Iranian nuclear plans.


No matter the directions taken, this series of events should play well with Russian intentions to increase their power structure. The events will no doubt continue to bring around closer relations between Russia and Iran both countries seem to be working towards. An Israeli attack, or even the threat of an attack, on Iran could also help Russia by creating an expanded market for Russian weaponry.

However the best probable influence for Russia is that the more aggressive the conflict, the more it would also drive up the price of oil in the market place making Russian treasuries, from petroleum products, even heavier with golden treasure. If Iran came out of the events unscathed — Russia benefits by lending a helping hand and extending their alliance.

If Iran is attacked and was seriously damaged by the process, Russia still wins as they rush in to pick up the pieces and make the country into an oil-rich Russian satellite nation.

Russia can just sit in the background shadows benefiting from any and all of the chaos, while raking in the money whatever Israeli/Iranian avenues are taken.

As long as Russia manages to sit on the sidelines, helping Iran stay at conflict with Israel by hindering outside attempts at a peaceful intervention, it is a win-win situation for the Russian Bear.

The problem with enabling vipers like the current leadership of Iran, is once you pick them up, like the former US-Bin Laden connection, there is always the chance they will turn and bite you in a fit of instinctive anger.

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Ahmadinejad: 'American empire' nearing its end

• Story Highlights
• Iranian president at U.N.: "A few bullying powers" creating world's problems
• Ahmadinejad on "Larry King Live": I have no preference between McCain, Obama
• Ahmadinejad: Attacking Iran would be "worst thing the U.S. government can do"
• Hostility with the U.S. "has not been from our end," Ahmadinejad says
  
• Next Article in World »

(CNN) -- In a blistering speech before the United Nations General Assembly, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad blamed "a few bullying powers" for creating the world's problems and said the "American empire in the world is reaching the end of its road."



At the United Nations, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said countries are turning their backs on "bullying powers."

And while he insisted Iran's nuclear activities are peaceful, Ahmadinejad blamed the same powers for seeking to hinder it "by exerting political and economic pressures on Iran, and threatening and pressuring" the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Those powers, meanwhile, are building or maintaining nuclear stockpiles themselves, unchecked by anyone, he said.

As Ahmadinejad spoke, the only person at the United States table was a note-taker; no U.S. diplomat was present. When President Bush spoke earlier Tuesday, however, Ahmadinejad was in the room.
CNN's Chief International Correspondent Christiane Amanpour said Ahmadinejad's comments were some of the most conciliatory he had made to the United States.

"As long as the aggressors, because of their financial, political and propaganda powers, not only escape punishment, but even claim righteousness, and as long as wars are started and nations are enslaved in order to win votes in elections, not only will the problems of the global community remain unsolved, but they will be increasingly exacerbated," the Iranian leader said.

He accused the United States of oppressing Iraqis with six years of occupation, saying Americans were "still seeking to solidify their position in the political geography of the region and to dominate oil resources." Watch Ahmadinejad say the "American empire" is nearing "the end of its road" »

Meanwhile, he said, Palestinians have undergone "60 years of carnage and invasion ... at the hands of some criminal and occupying Zionists." Watch Ahmadinejad blast U.S., Israel, "bullying powers" »

He said Zionists in Israel "have forged a regime through collecting people from various parts of the world and bringing them to other people's land, by displacing, detaining and killing the true owners of that land."

The Security Council, he said, "cannot do anything, and sometimes under pressure from a few bullying powers, even paves the way for supporting these Zionist murders."

He stopped short of calling for Israel to be politically wiped off the map as he has in the past. He called for "a free referendum in Palestine for determining and establishing the type of state in the entire Palestinian lands."

Ahmadinejad pointed to what he said are signs of hope, saying an increasing number of nations are turning their backs on "the bullying powers" and seeking to establish new relations.

"Today the Zionist regime is on a definite slope to collapse," he said.
The Anti-Defamation League released a statement saying the Iranian leader showed he "is deeply infected with anti-Semitism" and displayed "the true threat the Iranian regime poses to Israel, the United States and the West."

Hours before Ahmadinejad's speech, Bush told the General Assembly that Iran was among the nations that "continue to sponsor terror."
"Yet their numbers are growing fewer, and they're growing more isolated from the world," Bush said.

Bush also said U.N. members needed to enforce sanctions against Iran for failing to suspend its nuclear program, which the United States and other Western nations believe is intended to develop nuclear weapons.
Before Ahmadinejad spoke to the U.N., he told CNN's Larry King that he is willing to meet with presidential candidates Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama -- even in front of the media -- to discuss world issues and debate.

• Bush reassures U.N. on economy
• Iran confirms nuclear component production
• View excerpts from the interview transcript

But he has no preference between the two, he said in the interview that aired Tuesday night on "Larry King Live." Watch Ahmadinejad discuss the role of the next U.S. president »

"We believe that these are issues relating to the domestic affairs of the United States," Ahmadinejad told Larry King of the presidential race, according to a transcript of the interview.

"And decisions pertaining to that must be made by the American people. And it's not important to us either," Ahmadinejad said. "What matters essentially is that the president that is chosen by the American people should adopt a path and a policy approach and for us to observe the policy approach.

"This is the campaign period, anyone can say anything. So we disregard that. What matters is that once someone is in office, we have to watch and see if that person will bring about some changes in policy or continue the same old path."

Ahmadinejad was in New York City for the United Nations General Assembly meeting, which began Tuesday.

"I have said that, in fact, on this very trip, currently in New York, that I am ready to speak with the presidential candidates before the press," he told Larry King. "I believe that we've really done whatever we could do in this respect." Watch Ahmadinejad say he'd debate U.S. presidential candidates »

Asked whether he fears a U.S. attack, Ahmadinejad told King that attacking Iran would be the "worst thing the U.S. government can do ... I think that in the United States, there are enough reasonable people, smart people, who would not allow the U.S. government to make such a big mistake."

Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, meanwhile, would be "the best scenario," Ahmadinejad said. "But I think that it needs a timetable ... the presence of the United States there has not reduced tension and it has not limited terrorism either. In fact, it has increased terrorism."
On hostility between the United States and Iran, Ahmadinejad told King: "The hostility has not been from our end. Up to this day, we have always been interested in having friendly relations."

Iran, he said later, "throughout history ... has demonstrated that it is a nation that is for peace and friendly with others."
And he insisted Iran's nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, despite Western nations' concern to the contrary.

"Their concerns about us are not new," he told King of the West. "They've always been concerned. They were the ones who inspired Saddam [Hussein] to attack Iran and get us involved in an eight-year war. The terrorist groups that killed our president, our prime minister, our officials, are now freely asked to live in the Western countries."
The nuclear issue, he said, has been politicized and is not a legal struggle at all, noting the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog group, has "not detected any noncompliance or deviation" on the part of Tehran. Watch Ahmadinejad talk about nuclear weapons »

Ahmadinejad spoke extensively of Iran's support for Palestinians. The Iranian leader previously has made statements suggesting that Israel be politically "wiped off the map," though he insists that can be accomplished without violence. He has questioned the existence of the Holocaust, the genocidal Nazi campaign against European Jews, and warned Europeans that they may pay a heavy price for its support of Israel.

He insisted, however, that he and his country wish no harm to Jews.
"We have no problems with Jewish people," he said. "There are many Jews who live in Iran today ... but please pay attention to the fact that the Zionists are not Jews. They have no religion ... they just have -- wear masks of religiosity. How can you possibly be religious and occupy the land of other people?" Watch Ahmadinejad say he has no problems with Jews

On the Holocaust, he said an impartial group should research whether it happened as has been claimed.

"There is a claim that the extent of the calamity was what it was," Ahmadinejad said. "There are people who agree with it. There are people who disagree."

Ahmadinejad has also caused controversy by previously suggesting there were no homosexuals in Iran. Regarding that statement, he told King: "I said it is not the way it is here. In Iran this is considered a very -- obviously, most people dislike it. And we have, actually, a law regarding it and the law is enforced."

However, he said, "we do pay attention that in Iran nobody interferes in the private lives of individuals. We have nothing to do with the private realm of people. This is at the -- non-private, public morality. In their own house, nobody ever interferes."

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Iran's President Says United States Too Weak to Attack Iran

Ahmadinejad predicts that the ailing U.S. economy will prevent Washington from launching a strike

By Thomas Omestad
Posted September 25, 2008
NEW YORK—Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, meeting with several dozen American peace activists here Wednesday night, said that Iran was not seeking a nuclear bomb and asserted that the Bush administration was not in a position to launch military strikes to stop Iran from carrying out its nuclear activities.


Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (C) before a
meeting with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.
(Chris Hondros/Getty Images)

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"I really believe the American government is not able to start another war for the next decades to come. This is good news for the entire world," he declared. He was referring to the financial crisis that may trigger a historically expensive public bailout to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. He very likely also had in mind the long U.S. military engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan—a theme he has struck on other occasions.

Ahmadinejad's New York visit to speak before the opening session of the United Nations General Assembly and to conduct a media blitz has become an annual ritual. His appearance here usually draws angry protests, denunciations for his alleged support for terrorism and the destruction of Israel, and tough questioning.

But this meeting was decidedly different, with a friendly tone that seemed to please the Iranian leader.

"It is definitely a very unique meeting as a whole," he said. The gathering was sponsored by the Fellowship of Reconciliation, America's oldest interfaith peace group. The few news media representatives permitted to attend were not allowed to ask Ahmadinejad questions.

Ahmadinejad said of Iranians, "We are opposed to war," adding, "the Iranian nation loves the American people." As for Americans, he said, "I'm certain that the American people are opposed to war."

He said he would try to encourage nongovernmental exchanges between Iranians and Americans as well as the granting of more visas to American peace activists. "On the Iranian side, I will prepare the conditions for more talks and exchanges," he said. He asked U.S. officials to do the same for Iranians.

He did not, however, directly address a question pointing out that some Iranians involved with exchanges have been accused of attempting to overthrow their government. Some have been arrested and others harassed, according to news reports.

Despite a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency last week that charged Iran was stalling on answering key questions on its nuclear drive, Ahmadinejad argued that "the IAEA and others know all our activities are peaceful." He added, "We don't believe in the Bomb."

And despite U.S. and allied findings to the contrary, the Iranian president contended that Iran had helped improve matters. "We've really helped security in Iraq. Iraq's security is our security," he said.
Ahmadinejad's remarks seemed to impress the activists who gathered.

"He made it absolutely clear where the threat comes from—it comes from the United States," said Sara Flounders, coordinator of the Stop War on Iran Campaign. "He's always distorted in the media as hateful. You can see he's not."

Mark Johnson, executive director of the Fellowship of Reconciliation, seemed to be more cautious. "The message was one of peaceful intention," he said.

http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/...tack-iran.html

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Wednesday, October 01, 2008

Iran Keeps China In A Chokehold

By Yitzhak Shichor
September 26, 2008
Courtesy Of Asia Times Online
Over the past few weeks, Iran has amplified its threats that, if attacked, it would immediately close the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint nestled between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps commander Mohammad Ali Jafari has warned, in no uncertain terms, that if attacked "one of [Iran's] reactions will be to take control of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz". He added, "[our] capabilities in these crucial naval passages are so extensive that, in the case of an attack, not only the enemy but also all those who assist him will no doubt sustain [considerable] harm."

If Iran takes control of the Strait of Hormuz, the price of oil will spike considerably, said Jafari.

He also recently said that the strait is within the range of Iran's weapons and could easily be blocked for an unlimited period of time, while Hassan Firouzabadi, chief of staff of Iran's Armed Forces, has insisted, "If the country's interests are jeopardized … we will not let a single vessel pass through the strait."

Expressing alarm, Persian Gulf governments led by Qatar have launched a series of consultations in anticipation of the blocking of the strait to guarantee the continuation of oil export - for which emergency plans had already been drafted. A Saudi editorial headlined Closing Hormuz: Iranian Suicide warned that blocking the strait would not only upset the United States but would turn the entire world into a united front against Iran.

Hormuz is by no means a new vista for China. It was mentioned in Yuan Dynasty sources and visited by Admiral Zheng He's naval expedition in 1412-13 and 1430-31. At least four Hormuz diplomatic missions came to China [1]. The History of the Ming Dynasty says: "The country of Hulumusi [Hormuz] is situated on the utmost border of the Western Sea. The trading vessels of the southern barbarians come thither, and the nations of the Great Western Sea, as well as the merchants of the Xiyu [Western Asia] meet for commercial purposes."

Today's China is one of them. Heavily dependent on Persian Gulf crude oil imports and maintaining friendly relations with all parties involved, Beijing, however, has not yet officially responded to Tehran's threats [2], though undoubtedly it has been making its own preparations.

Following the US-Iran naval incident in the Hormuz Strait earlier in the year, Hua Liming, former Chinese ambassador to Iran, told China Daily: "Neither Washington nor Tehran seems to have a political will strong enough for a military showdown in the Persian Gulf in the near term."

This issue was not raised publicly during President Mahmud Ahmadinejad's recent meeting with Hu Jintao during his one-day visit to China on September 6. This was their third meeting, Ahmadinejad’s second visit to China and his first to Beijing. The Iranian president's stay was cut short by half and a scheduled press conference was cancelled - no reason was given.

Using very general terms, Hu Jintao said that the two countries "would strengthen international cooperation and jointly safeguard regional and world peace and stability". Before his departure Ahmadinejad said in a reserved tone that "good decisions" had been made; that the prospects of economic relations are "good"; and that bilateral relations have been "satisfactory".

Beijing did not demonstrate much enthusiasm about Ahmadinejad's reelection, has endorsed UN Security Council sanctions against Iran, and failed to support Iran's admission to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) - despite its "dependence" on Iran's oil.

Growing, Yet Limited, Dependence

China's oil imports vary considerably not only from year to year but also from month to month. Yet the overall trend is clear: the Persian Gulf is a major source of Chinese crude oil and in the long run China will likely become even more dependent on this region for its energy needs than it is today.

The reason is that while Beijing has been attempting - albeit unsuccessfully - to diversify its external oil resources - which are currently spread all over the world - many of these resources are forecasted to dwindle and dry up within the next two to three decades, while the same cannot be said of the supply in the Persian Gulf.

According to most recent estimates, oil reserves of the Persian Gulf countries account for nearly 56% of the world's total and, at current output levels, assure continuous supply for 80 to 110 years [3].

In May 2008 nearly 30% of the world's total crude oil was produced behind the Hormuz Strait, with the main producers being Saudi Arabia (with 9.4 million barrels per day [bpd] or 12.62%); Iran (4 million bpd, 5.38%); the United Arab Emirates (2.7 million bpd, 3.64%); Kuwait (2.6 million bpd, 3.5%); Iraq (2.5 million bpd, 3.3% and Qatar (938,000 bpd, 1.26%) [4]. Some of this oil goes to China.

China's oil imports have been growing steadily, well above GDP growth. In the first quarter of 2008 China imported 44.95 million tons of crude oil, up 14.9% over the same period last year, while GDP growth lagged behind with "only" 10.6%. In 2007 China's crude oil imports rose 12.4% compared to 2006.

At present, around one-third of China's oil imports flow through the Hormuz Strait. In the first half of 2008 (January-June), 29.75% of China's oil import came from Saudi Arabia (656,000 bpd, 17.92%) and Iran (433,000 bpd, 11.83%) [5]. Much smaller amounts came from other Persian Gulf countries.

When weighed against the rapid expansion of China's international economic relations, the share of the Persian Gulf in China's foreign trade is quite modest, though steadily increasing: in 2006 it reached a little over 3% of China's trade turnover, or nearly 4% of its total imports, mostly crude oil.

Much more heavily dependent on Persian Gulf oil, other Asian countries such as Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, India and Singapore obtain a much higher share of their oil through the Hormuz Strait.

Almost two thirds of the oil traffic in the strait is directed at Asia. Of about 17 million bpd shipped through the Hormuz Strait, 16% goes to Europe, 11% to the United States and 66% to Asia. China is by no means the most important customer.

In 2007 Japan accounted for 17.7% of Saudi Arabia's export, the Republic of Korea 9.1% and China for only 7.2%. Taiwan and Singapore accounted for 4.7% and 4.5% respectively, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Put differently, the share of Japan in Saudi trade, and consequently its vulnerability to trade disruptions, is nearly 2.5 times greater than China's. Japan imported 90.3% of its oil from the Middle East in July, of which 82.6% was from suppliers that use the Hormuz Strait: 31.03% from Saudi Arabia, 30.96% from the UAE, 15.89% from Qatar, 14.33% from Iran and 7.79% from Kuwait.

China's Iran Connection: Oil and Arms

China's limited reliance on Persian Gulf oil relative to the other Asian economies in spite of the region's strategic significance, as well to its overall international economic relations, is one reason for Beijing's reluctance to flag the Hormuz Strait as an issue. Other reasons include the fact that China does not want to jeopardize its economic benefits and political advantages.

Despite Iran's threat to prolong the conflict, its capability to cork the Hormuz bottleneck is limited and expected to be relatively short, say analysts. "Iran could not 'close the Gulf' for more than a few days to two weeks" [6].

China, hypothetically, could withstand such an interruption, given the buildup of its four strategic oil reserves that are expected to become operational by the end of this year. With a total capacity of 16.4 million cubic meters (or around 100 million barrels) they account for three months of Persian Gulf oil supply to China - or about one month of total supply.

The Chinese undoubtedly prefer to conceal the fact that some of the weapons that Iran and its Revolutionary Guards deploy along the Hormuz Strait, and that are planned to be used for enforcing its closure, are either made in China or based on Chinese technology sold to Iran.

Estimated at $4.483 billion - or 31.7% of the total - from 1979 to 2007, China's arms sales to Iran are second only, and very close, to the former Soviet Union and Russia which provided Iran with $4.967 billion of weapons - or 35.1% of the total [7].

These exported Chinese arms include the following anti-ship cruise missiles and technologies for license production: the YJ-8 Sardine, Iran's derivation: Kosar; the Saccade, Iran's derivation: Noor; the TL-10, TL-10A and possibly TL-10B version; and the TL-6 and YJ-7 [8]. With a range of between 40 and 120 kilometers these weapons could cover the entire area of the Hormuz Strait.

China began to supply Iran with anti-ship missile in the mid 1980s during the Iran-Iraq War. Consequently, HY-2 missiles (also known as Silkworm, Iran's derivation: Raad) were deployed at Larak Island and at Kuhestak, covering the narrow bend of the Hormuz Strait.

It is estimated that about ten HY-2s were fired by Iran before a ceasefire was enforced on August 20, 1988. Still, most of them were fired at Kuwait (from the Fau Peninsula seized from Iraq) - rather than at the Strait - hitting Kuwait's Sea Island offshore supertanker export oil terminal as well as two US-owned oil tankers.

Another HY-2 was fired in early December 1987 bringing the number of Iranian-fired HY-2s to seven that year. Since then Iran has deployed along a number of more advanced anti-ship missile batteries, either Chinese or license-produced using Chinese technologies, along the strait [9].

Some of these missiles are installed on Chinese-made fast missile boats, notably type Houdong, of which Iran has received 10 to 15, or according to some sources, about 40 [10]. Iran was also the first customer of at least five C-14 China Cat Class fast attack missile craft, each equipped with up to eight C-701 anti-ship cruise missiles.

In addition, over 11 French-designed missile patrol boats are equipped with two to four Chinese-made anti-ship missiles [11]. However, while most attention is focused on Iran's Chinese-made missiles and missile boats, an equally significant Chinese-made weapon that is specifically relevant to a possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz should by no means be overlooked.

In the 1990s, Iran purchased from China sophisticated EM-52 and EM-53 bottom-tethered mines. Their rocket-propelled 300-kg warhead is capable of hitting the hull of its target vessel at speeds in excess of 80 meters per second. They "are thought to be deactivated by coded acoustic signals to allow the safe passage of friendly vessels, and again activated to prevent the transit of those of an enemy" [12].

So unless Tehran provides Beijing with the codes (which is inconceivable), incoming or outgoing Chinese shipping in the strait could be hit by Chinese-made weapons. Given its indirect presence in the Gulf, how would Beijing behave in case of a confrontation in the Hormuz Strait?

Escape From Predicament

It is highly unlikely that the Chinese would intervene in such a confrontation. Following its time-honored behavior, Beijing would likely avoid any involvement, calling to settle the conflict peacefully by diplomatic means.

In the situation escalation China would fail to use its veto power and Tehran knows it - either before or after the strait is blocked. Iranian editorials and commentaries occasionally warn the government not to trust Beijing (and Moscow), and an article in the Iranian press questioned China's (as well as Russia's) decision to veto UN Security Council sanctions on Zimbabwe but approve sanctions on Iran.

While the Chinese do not likely intend to actively protect their assets in the Gulf in case of a crisis, they have undoubtedly made preparations to minimize the damage.

As mentioned above, although the Chinese are heavily dependent on Persian Gulf oil, they are less vulnerable than other Asian countries, as China still provides about half of its oil needs and sources for the other half are distributed all over the world aware of Iran's risky situation.

In early 2006, Beijing accepted Saudi Arabia's offer to supply China with whatever oil it needs in case of sanctions or use of force against Iran. Yet, if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by Iran, no Saudi oil could flow to China. Possible alternatives for Beijing are to increase oil imports from Oman and Yemen, though this could be no more than a stopgap solution as their oil export capabilities are substantially smaller.

Compared to Saudi Arabia's crude oil reserves, estimated at nearly 267 billion barrels, Oman's reserves are estimated at 5.5 billion and Yemen's at 3.3 billion. While Saudi Arabia's share in the world's total oil production in 2007 stood at over 12%, Oman's share was 0.85% and Yemen's 0.38%.

Another alternative is to ship Saudi oil through the 745-mile long Petroline (or East-West Pipeline) crossing from Abqaiq to the Red Sea terminal at Yanbu. This would not only add four to five days travel time, not to mention its smaller capacity, but would also force oil transportation to pass through Bab al-Mandab, another risky chokepoint that could be blocked, possibly by terrorists.

Finally, in early 2007 the China Petroleum Engineering and Construction Corporation (CPECC) signed an agreement with Abu Dhabi's International Petroleum Investment Company to build a pipeline that would bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

The project involves the construction of a 360-km, 48-inch diameter pipeline with a capacity of 1.5 million bpd of crude oil from Habshan west of the Strait to al-Fujayrah east of the Strait, crossing the UAE and Abu Dhabi. Construction work started in March 2008 and the project is expected to be completed in March 2010 [14]. Still, when completed, it will be a drop in a bucket compared to the 17 million bpd of crude oil that passes through the Hormuz Strait today.

It is clearly in Beijing's interest that the closure of the Hormuz Strait (and much more so an overall confrontation) should be avoided and prevented at all costs - preferably by satisfying Tehran's claims and demands by political and diplomatic means. Yet, if a confrontation could not be avoided, its effects on China would be relatively limited.

A brief and early conflict means less disruption while China is less dependent on the Persian Gulf, while a longer and a later conflict means greater disruption and instability as China would be much more dependent on the Gulf - and therefore US protection.