More Tricks
by J.R. Nyquist

The strategic alliance of Russia and China continues to develop, embracing an ever-widening circle of junior partners in the Western Hemisphere (including Cuba, Venezuela, Brazil, Bolivia and even Mexico). China and Mexico have congratulated themselves on a strategic partnership to the bafflement of those who are clueless about national resentments and historical grudges. For those who are internationally streetwise, a respectful silence regarding the main strategic inference is socially advisable. Last December Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao met with Mexican President Vicente Fox, who said that Wen had chosen Mexico as his first foreign destination for a reason. The two countries were destined to strengthen their bilateral ties, striving together for a more equitable world.

One may ask what is so inequitable as to require the strengthening of this particular partnership? The strategist and the historian will grasp the military-logistical significance, the territorial aspirations and the contribution of Imperial Germany’s late foreign minister, Arthur Zimmermann, and his famous telegram of 16 January 1917. “We intend to begin unrestricted submarine warfare,” Zimmermann explained to the German Ambassador in Washington. “We shall endeavor in spite of this to keep the United States neutral. In the event of this not succeeding, we make Mexico a proposal of alliance on the following basis: make war together, make peace together, generous financial support, and an understanding on our part that Mexico is to re-conquer the lost territory in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona. The settlement in detail is left to you.”

Powerful undemocratic countries in Asia and Europe have long dreamt of dominating their respective regions. Since 1917 there has arisen a serious obstacle (i.e., the United States of America). The Japanese ran into this obstacle in 1941. The Russians, Chinese, Iraqis, North Koreans and North Vietnamese also have firsthand experience (along with the Germans and Italians). For over 100 years the United States preferred neutrality, as recommended by George Washington. But modern strategic reality – the reality of U-boats, aircraft carriers, long range bombers and missiles – dictates a policy of American engagement, if only to avoid the isolation of the United States by a combination of totalitarian powers. It was combination, to be sure, that Arthur Zimmermann was reaching for in 1917 when he wrote to his ambassador in Washington: “You will inform the president [of Mexico] of the above most secretly, as soon as the outbreak of war with the United States is certain, and add the suggestion that he should, on his own initiative, invite Japan to immediate adherence and at the same time mediate between Japan and ourselves.”

The encirclement of prospective enemies is an old tactic. In the case of Mexico, an Asian alliance is a respectable proposal. But regrettably for Arthur Zimmermann, his idea was 89 years ahead of its time. The usefulness of Mexico to an aspiring Asian power was obvious in 1917. For this usefulness to become effective, however, special conditions were needed. It is not that Mexico would forever refuse an alliance against the United States. If Mexico had sufficient military power (or if America was otherwise on its knees), a Mexican invasion of the Southwest would be inevitable. But Mexico is a relatively weak military power, and America is very strong indeed. But new weapons in a new era, with newfound vulnerabilities to a precarious economic system that requires open borders to continue functioning, and you have several indications of a coming “reversal” of fortune.

When a strategically important country like China extends itself to a strategically insignificant country like Mexico, in terms of a symbolic state visit, it should be asked whether or not the insignificant country has a significant future role. In his reply to Vicente Fox’s inference regarding Mexico’s newfound importance, the Chinese premier spoke of enhancing “mutual trust” and a “deeper cooperation” between the two countries. “Our relations present us with a fine strategic opportunity,” said the Chinese premier. The typical American businessman and politician will point to growing Chinese-Mexican trade. It is a quirk of social psychology that Americans cannot grasp that China regards trade as a strategic tool. And one must distinguish between the economic sphere and the strategic sphere. Mexico is to become a new tourist destination for Chinese nationals. The two countries are joining together, as well, to promote the interests of the developing countries and to promote “world peace.”

China’s partnership with Mexico should be understood in terms of China’s partnership with Russia. Consider the following, relevant item: In Russia, Maj. Gen. Vladimir Vasilenko, chief of the 4th Central Scientific Research Institute of the Russian Defense Ministry, signaled Moscow’s desire to withdraw from the INF Treaty with the deployment of new medium range nuclear missiles. In a statement intended to prefigure a future Kremlin announcement, Col. Gen. Varfolomey Korobushkin, first vice president of Russia’s Academy of Military Sciences, said: “The construction of a national missile defense in the United States will inevitably provoke a nuclear arms race.”

Why would the Russians be interested in medium range nuclear missiles?

The shortest distance between two points is usually in the same hemisphere. China’s position in the Western Hemisphere, for example, has special importance. According to Gen. Bantz J. Craddock of the U.S. Southern Command, China is offering military support and training to Latin America. As Washington Times correspondent Bill Gertz put it in a March 15 column, “The growing Chinese role [in Latin America] comes amid numerous high-level visits by its leaders and other activities aimed at building military and economic ties to leftist governments and other states in a strategic region long-considered within the U.S. sphere of influence.”

Besides its obvious readiness to train Cuban, Venezuelan and Bolivian soldiers, the Chinese are currently supplying military hardware to Latin American “friends.” The intensive training of Cuban artillery officers has led some observers to wonder whether Cuba intends to acquire its own medium-ranged missiles (from Russia, China or Iran). A recent visitor to Cuba was Lt. Gen. Peng Xiaofeng, commissar of China’s missile forces. According to Gen. Craddock, the U.S. knows “almost nothing” about the extent of Chinese military-intelligence activities in the Western Hemisphere. Add to this the Chinese economic penetration and political subversion of Canada and a clearer picture of strategic encirclement emerges.

From March 21-22 Russian President Vladimir Putin was in China. Employing a euphemistic formula, the Russians and Chinese say they want a “diplomatic solution” in the Middle East. Of course, a diplomatic solution means letting Islamic zealots have nuclear weapons – something the Russians have encouraged for many years.

Everything here is interconnected.