War College expert gives take on Ukraine, possibility of U.S military involvement


Ukrainian riot police stand at the entrance of the regional administrative building in Donetsk, Ukraine, Friday, March 7, 2014. Donetsk is an ethnic Russian stronghold and on Wednesday evening pro-Russian protesters took over the regional administration building, before police regained control of it on Thursday. (AP Photo/Sergei Grits)

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By David Wenner | dwenner@pennlive.com
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on March 07, 2014 at 11:06 AM





On Thursday, the situation in Ukraine took a turn that could lead to more volatility, and more tension between the United States and Russia. Leaders within Crimea, which is part of Ukraine, voted to join Russia. A public vote was set for March 16 in the province, where more than half the residents have Russian backgrounds.
Jim MacDougall, the chairman of the department of national security and strategy at the U.S. Army War College in Carlisle, was paying close attention. He answered some questions about how the situation might impact the United States.
How serious is this?: MacDougall pointed out that residents of the western portion of Ukraine tend to favor closer ties with Europe and the European Union, while residents of the east favor closer ties with Russia. That raises the significant question of what Russia will do if the population of Crimea votes to become part of Russia. Ukraine is already in political turmoil, with a pro-Russia president having been driven out of the country. Russia doesn’t recognize the interim government. The United States, however, is working with the interim government. “How this will be resolved is pretty much an open question,” MacDougall said. “It’s a very tense situation. It could erupt into violence at some point.”
What are the chances the United States will get involved in a war over this?: “I think the chances are low,” MacDougall said. If the United States is involved in any military action to provide security for Ukraine, it would be in conjunction with NATO, he noted.
What’s at stake for the United States?: Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the United States has been among those promoting a “whole and free” Europe, MacDougall noted. There has been an assumption of peace, order and economic freedom in eastern Europe. This has been accomplished through expansion of NATO and the European Union into the region. Russia opposes this expansion. So now there’s a question of whether Europe will include Ukraine. There’s a question of whether this situation amounts to push-back by Russia, and eventually will lead to a new dividing line in Europe. Moreover, it raises the question of what level of outside help will be available, and what the United States will do, if the security of a country in this region is threatened.
What are the options?: MacDougall said the first option, currently underway, involves diplomacy “backed by strength” of NATO and the European Union. The United States is deeply involved — President Obama spoke by phone this week with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Secretary of State John Kerry has been in Europe participating in talks. MacDougall expects there will be a “unified position” involving NATO and the European Union. These entities can exert pressure by imposing economic sanctions, including freezing bank accounts and imposing travel restrictions, on Russian leaders. An additional option is to provide financial help to Ukraine, which faces severe economic problems.
Background: Ukraine is an economically-troubled country of 46 million people located between Russia and the rest of Europe. It used to be part of the Soviet Union. Now, many of its residents and leaders want to turn away from Russia and connect economically with the rest of Europe. Russia doesn’t want that, and recently sent troops into Ukraine, saying they were needed to protect ethnic Russians living there. But many outsiders, including President Barack Obama, say Russia has invaded Ukraine and violated international laws. The United States, as an international leader, is expected to play a major role in persuading Russia to back off and use diplomacy in its dealings with Ukraine. The situation has caused people all over the world to focus on the actions of Obama and the United States. And it has caused Obama’s political opponents in the United States to criticize his leadership and claim to know a better way to handle the situation.