Russia, Missiles: It’s All About Iran

September 17, 2009 - 10:31 AM | by: Michael Tobin
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev


Russian President Dmitry Medvedev

Just a couple of weeks ago, I was speaking with Shabtai Shavit, the former head of Israel’s Mossad, about what it would take to get Russia on board with sanctions against Iran and to block the sale of the S-300 air defense system to Iran. He told me the Russians want the US to end support of breakaway former Soviet republics like Georgia and Ukraine .” And he said they want the US to shelve the missile defense plan that puts missiles and radars in Eastern Europe.

Yesterday Czech Premier Jan Fisher told reporters that President Barack Obama told him “His (the US ) government is pulling out of plans to build a US Radar on Czech territory.” The same, he said, was true of the plan to put missile interceptors in Poland .

Also Yesterday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev did a 180 from his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who, last week, ruled out imposing sanctions on Iran . Medvedev said “Sometimes, you have to embark on sanctions and they can be right.”

Hello, back room deal.

Meir Javedanfar, author of, “The Nuclear Sphinx of Tehran: Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and the state of Iran” says the deal “would include economic and most likely the military sphere.” Therefore, while Russia supports sanctions it will not sell and support a controversial missile defense system for Iran at the same time.

Trade sanctions against Iran usually run into objections of two permanent members of the UN Security Council; China and Russia . China , it seems anyway, will now be all alone and under pressure to drop its objection.

While sanctions simmer and pressure Iran toward negotiations, Israel is then discouraged from launching a unilateral strike on Iranian Nuclear facilities.

Here’s the glaring vulnerability in the back room deal: No signing ceremony, no piece of paper that guarantees Russia won’t do another U turn, No public pressure. Javedanfar believes the US would have needed plenty of reassurance before it angered Czech leaders, who stuck their necks out for the American missile defense plan, and before the US gave up such a potent bargaining chip. “If Washington had any hint that its move would not be reciprocated,” He says “It’s extremely unlikely that such a decision would have been taken.”

Dan Diker, Director of the think tank: Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, believes the Obama administration was faced with either having the Russians as opponents or allies in the Middle East . “It’s kind of like a hail Mary policy,” he says. “The US says ‘let’s make nice and hopefully you won’t bite us.’”

One thing is certain: Russia has forced its way onto the Middle East Playing field again and is back in the game.