The Guns of Christmas
Blog Information Dissemination
Sunday, December 19, 2010

The weather is improving over South Korea, and the live fire drills are likely to take place today. A few random thoughts before the day unfolds.

South Korea will conduct the live fire drills, cancellation isn't an option. This is a cultural issue as much as anything, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak cannot back down to North Korean threats or intimidation or he will be forced to resign in disgrace.

North Korea will return fire. The North has made every single warning that is consistent with the warnings made prior to the last outbreak of combat, including phone calls with personal warnings (very rare). Expect return fire to Yeonpyeong island and at least one other location along the DMZ as well. If I was to guess, I would suggest the second attack vector will probably be in Gyeonggi Province. If you recall, that is where intelligence suggested the next attack would come from, and if I was in Vegas I would bet that is where KPA Unit 2670 is located.

North Korean artillery fired a number of duds during the first Yeonpyeong island attack. Folks will be watching to see if the second attack also includes a high number of duds. The North Korean guns are still good, but the artillery shells may not be. If serious shooting starts, it will be interesting to see if the South Koreans decide to take out all the guns while they are ineffective due to bad ammo, as opposed to stopping short of that step and letting North Korea rebuild stocks of new artillery shells.

I suspect the response to an attack will be measured and not an all out offensive. It is very unlikely North Korea would use a nuclear weapon unless the South Koreans actually invaded North Korea, but it is also unclear how the North Koreans will respond to bomb raids against Pyongyang.

Bill Richardson does not appear to have made any progress on either defusing tensions or the nuclear issue. As long as he stays in North Korea though, there is still hope for a diplomatic breakthrough.

Posted by Galrahn at 9:00 AM