Japan's Kuroda pledges to provide liquidity to distressed markets
Haruhiko Kuroda, the Bank of Japan governor, has pledged that the central bank will provide sufficient liquidity in the aftermath of the Brexit vote.
He has said that the Bank of Japan will use swap arrangements between six central banks to provide the markets with ample liquidity.
Taro Aso, the Japanese finance minister, said that he was concerned about the global economic impact of the UK referendum.
Japanese finance minister prepares to talk to press after yen surge
The precious metal, seen as a safe haven for investors in times of panic, has rallied on news that the UK will leave the EU.
Gold rallied as much as 8.1pc to nearly $1,360 as money managers looked for somewhere to shelter.
Sterling's slide worsens as pound approaches $1.33
The UK's currency has now fallen by 10.6pc against the US dollar, taking it as low as $1.3304.
Asian stock markets tumble
Japanese equities have started trading, and it's looking ugly. The Nikkei is down 1,100 points, or 7pc, as shares start changing hands.
Japan to hold press conference within the hour
As investors have piled into the perceived safe haven of the Japanese yen, it has surely caused headaches for policymakers.
The currency has risen by more than 10pc against sterling, a spanner in the works for officials who had kept the yen low, as part of an economic strategy designed to spur growth and boost inflation.
Pound crashes to 1985 low as sterling falls below $1.35
It just keeps falling. The currency is now at its weakest levels in more than three decades.
Here's how that looks.
'Lehman-like' currency markets as pound tumbles below $1.37
The pound has kept sliding, now below $1.37 and on course to double its worst ever one-day slide if losses extend.
FX feels Lehman like
— The Thalesians (@thalesians) June 24, 2016
Simon Derrick, of BNY Mellon, says: "Self evidently a number of investors will have found themselves on the wrong side of the price action in the past few hours.
"It therefore look very likely that today will see a record fall for the pound, easily beating Black Wednesday's move. Indeed, it seems fair to say that today will soon start to be referred to as a Black Friday for markets."
Bank of England expected to slash interest rates
As the currency slides, investors are expecting imminent action from the Bank of England.
Policymakers could unleash monetary stimulus in an effort to support growth - if it is confirmed that Britons have voted for Brexit.
Danny Blanchflower, himself a former Bank policymaker, suggests that interest rate cuts are now on the table.
GBP down to $1.37 presume MPC members been contacted only question what time they will meet and will they cut by 25bp or 50bp
— Danny Blanchflower (@D_Blanchflower) June 24, 2016
UK stocks to plunge by nearly 8pc as markets open
While currency traders may already have their heads in their hands - while others are no doubt cheering the outcome - there are still more than four hours until UK stocks starting trading.
Out of hours betting and futures activity suggest that when the London Stock Exchange starts at 8am, we'll be in for a bumpy ride. The FTSE 100 is expected to fall by more than 7.7pc, or nearly 500 points on the open.
The currency keeps dropping. We'll keep you updated.
Sterling drops below $1.40 as investors reckon with Brexit
The pound has dropped below the crucial $1.40 mark as traders accept that a Leave outcome is all but a certainty.
The drop - at its greatest a 5.7pc slide against the US dollar - puts the currency on track for the worst one-day fall in history.
Last night sterling had surged above $1.50 as money managers bet that Britons had voted to remain in the EU.
Amazingly, cable could (theoretically) hit a 6-month high and a 6-month low on the same day. pic.twitter.com/7yZ31SwT1e
— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) June 24, 2016
The euro is also dropping against the US dollar, reflecting worries about spillover effects from the Brexit vote. The single currency is down by close to 2pc.
What next for financial markets?
With many pollsters now calling the outcome for Leave, or suggesting it is the most likely outcome, what next for financial markets trying to process the surprise outcome?
Simon Derrick, chief markets strategist at BNY Mellon, says that "we need to ask whether any official action might be taken to support UK markets".
George Osborne, the Chancellor, has said: "The Bank of England and the Treasury - Governor [Mark] Carney and myself - we have of course discussed contingency plans."
Mr Derrick said that beyond the UK impact, attention would turn to the possibility of a domino effect, impacting investor confidence in other EU member states.
"We also need to start thinking about how nations such as Switzerland and Japan will react should save haven flows begin to head their way.
"More generally, there seems a good chance that other G7 members will be prepared to take action.
"Finally, and possibly most importantly, it is worth asking what this means for the possibility of a rate hike by the [US] Fed in the near future. While a July move already seemed unlikely, it is entirely possible (given the recent comments about international concerns) that a September shift starts to look a little more remote as well."
Long nights for a world watching London
As traders burn both ends of the candle, officials in Brussels are also closing watching the outcome of the UK's referendum.
The lights have been staying on at the Berlaymont, the heart of the European Commission.
It's 1.30am and lights still burning at EU's Berlaymont HQ. Tusk, Juncker meet at 1030am pic.twitter.com/Y3MCvoQilU
— Matthew Holehouse (@mattholehouse) June 23, 2016
With 71 out of 382 counting areas declared, Leave is now expected to be the most likely outcome, at least by those betting money on the outcome.
Oddschecker compiled betting odds now suggest that there is a 55pc chance of a Brexit result. For the first time, withdrawing from the EU is considered more likely than staying.
Sterling slide on track for largest fall in history
The pound's tumble is now worse than that of any day during the global financial crisis, or that of the 1992 ERM exit.
With a drop of over 5pc on the day, if continued, sterling's decline would be the worst in the currency's history against the US dollar.
Joe Rundle, of ETX Capital, said: "We can expect to see these gyrations continue throughout the night as traders react to the referendum results as they come in. We’re not seeing a panic just yet but the complacency has definitely gone."
Pound dives as City reckons with Leave probability
Sterling is heading ever lower against the dollar - on track for its worst losses against the US currency in at least the last three decades.
It is currently trading down more than 5.3pc as traders contemplate the likelihood of a Brexit victory.
That puts the pound on track for a greater fall than that of "Black Wednesday", when the UK left the ERM in 1992. On that day, the pound dropped by just 4.1pc.
Sterling has now traded as low as $1.4055.
Meanwhile, Asian markets are waking up and reckoning with the consequences. Expect to see some fall out in bourses there once they open up for trading.
Chances of Brexit more than triple as results trickle in
Odds of a Leave outcome have risen by almost 240pc since Thursday morning, according to Oddschecker, which gathers odds from all of the major bookmakers.
The chances of a vote to withdraw from the EU now stand just shy of 40pc, according to punters' bets.
The huge rise reflects much bigger than anticipated Brexit support in the North of the country, as well as in Northern Ireland. Polling expert John Curtice and others have now suggested that a Leave vote could be the most likely result.
However, clarity isn't anticipated until much later in the morning. Chris Hanretty, of UEA, suggests that we won't be able to make forecasts with much precision until 3.30am, when the result should become apparent.
Plunge in sterling a 'once in a year move'
Drop in pound 'once in a year move', trading expert says Play! 00:35
FTSE poised to fall 2pc when markets open
Out of hours trading suggests London's leading index will shed 111 points as it opens, at 8am this morning.
That'd represent a fall of around 1.8pc from where the FTSE ended on Thursday, at 6,338.10.
Futures markets open - current betting is that FTSE 100 (top of list) will open down 111 points. pic.twitter.com/v6xfRHNyin
— Joel Hills (@ITVJoel) June 24, 2016
Chances of Brexit have doubled
As early outcomes have shown big gains for the Leave camp, gamblers have been splashing their cash on Brexit bets.
On some of the largest exchanges, the probabilities of leaving the EU have surged. Betfair, which suggested just a 18pc chance of Brexit just over an hour ago, now has the chances at 35pc.
PredictIt, another large prediction market, has also seen huge shifts in the past couple of hours, according to former Bank of England policymaker Danny Blanchflower.
Swindon has come out for Leave - but much more narrowly than anticipated.
Chris Hanretty, of UEA, had estimated that about 59pc of voters would want Brexit. In the end, just 55pc opted to withdraw from the EU.
Other pundits are weighing in with the same opinion.
Leave won Swindon but their vote a little down perhaps on what they'd expect given NE results #eurefhttps://t.co/dWg703KRut
— Matthew Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) June 23, 2016
Early results lead to swift City reassessment
Big Brexit wins have resulted in the choppy trading session many were predicting.
Sterling has bounced back and forth on strong Brexit support in the North, falling as low as $1.4344. The drop is one of the largest witnessed since the financial crisis, in 2009.
Analysis of currency bets placed ahead of the EU vote suggested that the currency could drop to as low as $1.10 if Britons vote for Brexit, in a move that would dwarf the plunge of "Black Wednesday", when the UK pulled out of the ERM in 1992.
Jeremy Cook, of World First, said: "Newcastle was a squeaky win for Remain but Sunderland was a huge kick in the ribs and the bottom has fallen out of the pound.
"These markets are thin, liquidity is poor and a recovery is obviously possible but those traders who were looking to book a quick profit before a restful night’s sleep have had their ideas shattered."
Pound slumps on Brexit advance
The City has come alive to the possibility of Brexit.
A larger than expected turnout for Leave in Newcastle, and a much heavier Brexit win than anticipated in Sunderland have knocked the pound heavily against the dollar. So far it has lost about 2.6pc of its gains.
Joe Rundle, of ETX Capital, says: "The pound is plummeting as Sunderland votes heavily for Leave. Markets are very nervy at the moment as the polls – and the markets - could be wrong. The Sunderland result has definitely altered the tone of the evening and markets are getting very choppy."
The FTSE, London's leading stock market, has also headed lower during out of hours trading. It is now around 70 points below Thursday's official close.
Newcastle declares for Remain - but by a tiny margin
The Newcastle result is the first shock of the night. This counting area - one of the referendum's largest - was expected to come out much more strongly for Remain.
JP Morgan, one of the largest and most influential investment banks, expected 66.8pc of the vote for Remain if the national vote was to be neck and neck. The actual margin of victory was much smaller, with only 51pc voting to stay in.
Simon Derrick, chief markets strategist at BNY Mellon, says that the Newcastle result proves that it is "still very early on to make definitive calls" on the national outcome.
The pound is losing a lot of its gains on the news, retracing its progress with a slide to the low $1.48s. It had reached over $1.50 earlier in the night.
Closely-watched EU referendum betting markets have come alive in the last few minutes, as punters splash cash on the chance of a Brexit outcome.
A flood of money has pushed up the odds of a Leave outcome to 18pc on Betfair, one of the largest bookmakers. The perception of a higher chance of a UK exit has come in tandem with a fall in the pound, now at around $1.4925.
First result not exactly a shock to the markets
Gibraltar - one of the smaller counting areas - has come out massively for Remain, with 96pc voting to keep the UK in the EU.
Not a huge surprise that - given that Gibraltar borders Spain and would be one of the most affected regions if the UK were to withdraw from the EU.
In the end, 19,322 votes were cast to remain, while just 823 Gibraltarians opted to exit the EU. That's only around 20,000 votes of the 30 million or so total we are expecting.
823 people in Gibraltar apparently confused about the location of Gibraltar.
— LadINy FOHF (@LadyFOHF) June 23, 2016
Traders rely on turnout for early guidance
While we await the first solid results - probably around half midnight - many of the 382 counting areas have already been reporting turnout figures.
A higher turnout is likely to be positive for the Remain side, while lower figures could boost the Leave camp, which is believed to contain more passionate Britons, who are more likely to be among those certain to vote.
David Owen, a Jefferies economist, says that counting on a Remain victory "depends on there being a high turnout". Some 66pc of voters headed to the ballot boxes for the general election last year, and a huge 85pc of Scots voted in their independence referendum in the year before.
A turnout figure more like that of the 2014 EU Parliamentary elections, when just 35pc of registered voters actually did cast a ballot, would be a big boost to would be Leavers.
Turnout in number of mainland UK authorities declared so far ranging from 68% to 75%.
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) June 23, 2016
US stock market futures rally as Brexit fears recede
Traders are betting on a surge in US stock markets as the EU referendum looks to be headed towards a Remain result.
While polling experts are still saying that it would be too early to dismiss a win for the Leave camp, that has not stopped US equity futures climbing.
Janet Yellen, the Fed chairman, warned earlier this week that a Brexit vote "could have significant economic repercussions", although she did not believe a US recession would be the most likely outcome.
Michael Hewson of CMC Markets said: "Just prior to polls closing late money bets on the betting markets saw stock market futures and sterling surge higher with GBP/USD hitting 1.4990 before slipping back to 1.4900.
"As the final poll from YouGov hit the wires sterling pushed back higher again towards the 1.5000 level. With Nigel Farage also admitting that “Remain” may have edged it, it would appear that the fat lady is in the act of clearing her throat and readying herself to sing.
"The big question now is not only whether the final poll is right but also whether this is a case of buy the rumour, sell the fact.
"Has the Bremain bounce run its course?"
These last few weeks have been historic ones for sterling:
At current rates – 1.4985 – GBPUSD is enjoying its 4th best week since 1985.
— World First (@World_First) June 23, 2016
This is the last post from Isabelle Fraser, as she hands over to Peter Spence for markets coverage through the night.
...And sterling breaks through the $1.50 mark
It looks like the YouGov polling has pushed it over the edge.
Credit: Bloomberg
Meanwhile the Yen is falling as its status as a safe haven is less in demand. After-hours trading in the US is up too, withe S&P up 0.4pc after it jumped 1.3pc earlier in the day.
Sterling jumps after YouGov poll show lead for Remain
Sterling is heading towards $1.50, the highest it has been since 17 December 2015.
It's all over the place and seems to be having quite the party. It's lurking around $1.498 at the moment.
Meanwhile, the FT's Peter Speigel says that YouGov's poll chimed with exit polls carried out by hedge funders.
Sources briefed on hedge fund exit polls told me they had similar 52-48 result for Remain as of late afternoon https://t.co/fWk5qpoqSz
— Peter Spiegel (@SpiegelPeter) June 23, 2016
S&P 500 rallies to close less than 1pc below all-time record
The S&P 500 closed up 1.3pc and the Dow Jones hit 1,800 points, ending 1.29pc higher - both climbing in the last 30 minutes of trading.
This comes as Betfair announced that the odds of a Remain vote were 88pc, a record high.
Markets are slavishly tracking #Bexit odds. Dow tops 18K ahead of Brexit vote results as higher Pound seen as pos pic.twitter.com/biNtF3xDrT
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) June 23, 2016
Which leads me to ponder...
There's good research to be done on the two week period where global markets followed a British betting market with less than £100m waged.
— Mike Bird (@Birdyword) June 23, 2016
What to look out for tonight
No doubt currently in the midst of a disco nap, traders and analysts will be up soon to find opportunities as the results come in.
Oil, gold, gold futures and currency markets will all be open, as will the Asian markets. Some hedge funds and investment banks have commissioned exit polling so as to lay big bets and attempt to make profits on foreign exchange and sterling derivative markets.
We could even see this before the polls close - and well into the night. But recent trading suggests that most expect a Remain vote.
Meanwhile, the FT reports that Citigroup has curated its own Brexit playlist, including 'Should I stay or should I go?' by The Clash.
At Barclays, sleeping bags have been brought in to avoid Brexhaustion (sorry) among late-night and early-morning traders.
They should really read this article which asks is lack of shut-eye good for business? Hint: probably not.
Markets update: FTSE 100 rises 6.4% in five days on Bremain optimism
Trading volumes were thin as investors awaited the result of the Brexit referendum. Although early trade suggested increased expectations Britain would vote to stay in the EU, a small bout of jitters appeared to creep into markets in afternoon trade.
Hmmm. Markets having earlier indicated remain certainty now seem to be as clueless as everyone else on the outcome pic.twitter.com/yWw4dtLZky
— jeremy warner (@JeremyWarnerUK) June 23, 2016
FTSE 100 surged to a two-month high by close, up 76.91 points, or 1.23pc, to 6,338.10
Since last Thusday the FTSE 100 has risen 6.38pc
£100bn wiped back on to the value of blue chip stocks in one week
GBPUSD trading at 1.4813 against the dollar
Dow Jones up 0.83%
Chris Beauchamp, of IG, said: " Buccaneering risk takers that stepped in at the end of last week can't really be blamed for booking their profits now, to either sit back and watch the results come in, or take the saner option and sleep through the night."
On that note, I'm passing the baton over to my colleague Isabelle Fraser. Thanks for following my markets coverage today.
Market report: CRH jumps on 'buy' rating, as FTSE 100 closes at two-month ahead of Brexit result
A bullish broker note lifted shares in Irish building materials supplier CRH today. Canaccord Genuity began covering the FTSE 100 stock with a “buy” rating as it believes the business is now “well positioned” to deliver strong earnings growth following its recent acquisitions and a positive trading backdrop.
Aynsley Lammin, of Canaccord Genuity, said: “Having suffered from a asynchronised downturn in its key markets post the financial crisis, it should now be enjoying a more favourable macro backdrop.” Following a year of substantial acquisitions, including the €6.5bn purchase of assets from Lafarge Holcim, the broker said CRH has adopted “a sensible focus on deleveraging”.
As leverage returns to “more comfortable levels” Canaccord expects the group will continue to “drive growth” through small-to-mid size acquisitions. Trading in the US construction markets have also improved and infrastructure work is on the rise. However, the backdrop in Europe remains challenging.
Nevertheless, Mr Lammin said: “We are past the worst [in Europe] with a return to growth now expected, albeit slow.” The broker now expects operating margins will rise from 5.4pc last year to 9pc in 2018. Buoyed by the upbeat note, shares in CRH closed jumped 59p, or 2.9pc, to £20.94. More than £100bn wiped back on FTSE 100 in five days
On the wider market, trading volumes were thin as investors awaited the result of the Brexit referendum. The FTSE 100 surged to a two-month high by close, up 76.91 points, or 1.23pc, to 6,338.10.
In the past week, London’s benchmark index has risen 6.38pc, adding more than £100bn back on to the value of blue chip stocks.
Mining stocks were among the biggest risers as copper prices rallied to a seven-week high of $4,780 a tonne on the back of two opinion polls yesterday which showed the Remain camp was in the lead.
In its wake, shares in Anglo American climbed 3.6pc to 694.7p, Antofagasta advanced 3.6pc to 440.3p, Glencore made gains of 2.8pc to 153p and BHP Billiton edged up 2pc to 870.5p.
Elsewhere, Britain’s biggest supermarket chain Tesco edged up 0.8pc to 167.8p after it recorded its second straight quarter of UK sales growth, buoyed by a boost in international markets.
Staying with the retail sector, shares in online grocer Ocado bounced 1.6pc to 253p after Morgan Stanley reiterated its 'overweight’ recommendation. Despite the concerns about increased competition following the arrival of AmazonFresh to London, analysts at the investment bank thinks Ocado could be “a net beneficiary” of Amazon’s foray into grocery. Francois Halconruy, of Morgan Stanley, said: “While a successful AmazonFresh in the UK could shave 90 to 110p from our Ocado valuation, this impact would most likely be offset if the Amazon threat prompted just three additional partners to sign with Ocado’s Smart Platform over the next few years.”
On the mid-cap index, packaging group DS Smith enjoyed its best day in four months following a results beat. Full-year operating profit came in at £379m compared with analysts expectations of £285m. In its wake, JP Morgan hiked its operating profit estimates by 3pc for next year as it expects the mid-cap company to “continue to deliver organic and acquisition-led growth” this year.
Meanwhile, Trevor Green, of Aviva Investors, which holds a 6.8pc stake in the FTSE 250 company, said: “The results today highlight strong progress in recent acquisition integration in conjunction with underlying growth in the business and this positive momentum looks set to continue.” Shares leapt 25.6p, or 6.6pc, to 412.5p.
Shares in London Stock Exchange also jumped 3.1pc to £27.35 after fund group Lindsell Train, the LSE’s fourth largest shareholder, said the market is still not pricing in synergies in the LSE-Deutsche Boerse merger. In an update to its clients, Michael Lindsell, of Lindsell Train, said the offer document, which promises €450m cost savings per year materially underplays the value of the tie-up between the pair.
On the other side, RSA Insurance tumbled on the back of a bearish broker note. Canaccord Genuity cautioned that the decline in the yield curve and long bond yields has contributed to the weakness in the insurance sector. The broker downgraded RSA to hold as it believes it outperformed the wider sector, with shares up 14pc compared with a 13pc slide industry wide. Ben Cohen, of Canaccord Genuity, said: “With bond yields at least as great a headwind for RSA as for its UK peers, we see limited scope for near-term upgrades until we have greater visibility on 2018 and beyond.” The FTSE 100 stumbled 0.5p to 483.6p.
Meanwhile, betting companies dropped into the red after it was announced a new 'place of consumption’ tax of 15pc would be launched in South Australia. Although it is a small state, where less than 7pc of the country reside, analysts in the City said there’s a real risk that other states may look to copy a place of consumption tax regime. In its wake, shares in Paddy Power Betfair lost 4.6pc to £87. Its peer William Hill rose 2.4pc to 300.2p.
Finally, on Aim, Totally closed flat at 62.5p despite another vote of confidence from chairman Bob Holt in the business. Mr Holt snapped up almost 27,000 shares at a price of 63.6p a piece just three days after indulging in a 20,000 share purchase.
Betfair: £12m traded today; 84% chance remain
As voting enters its final hours, we have the latest update from Betfair.
Remain is trading at around 1.19, implying an 84% Britain will vote to stay in the EU. Brexit is now trading at a 16% chance.
Top stats:
£63m traded on market in the biggest political betting market in Betfair's history
£12 traded today alone
Largest bet on remain: £315,000
Largest bet on leave: £194,000
Betfair Spokesperson, Naomi Totten said:“The sheer volume of money being traded on this market is phenomenal with over £63m now matched and £12m of that being traded today alone. The largest betting market in Betfair Exchange history is £102m on a World Cup cricket match in 2015. It is unlikely that the Brexit market will surpass that, but we are predicting that it will sit comfortably in the top 10 markets of all time.”
Little scope for a relief rally if Britain votes Remain
Pantheon Macro: Markets have priced-in a remain vote. Little scope remains for a relief rally after a #Bremain vote. pic.twitter.com/twuOlWGQPn
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) June 23, 2016
Copper soars to seven-week high on Bremain optimism
Copper prices surged to their highest levels in seven weeks as two opinion polls released today put Remain ahead.
The boosted sentiment was reinforced by the weak dollar, which makes metals cheaper for other currency holders.
As cautious optimism swept trading floors across the globe, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 1.7% to $4,780 a-tonne.
The rally in copper boosted mining stocks, sending them to the top of the FTSE 100. Anglo American and Antofagasta made gains of more than 3%.
Here's a look at the FTSE 100's top risers today:
Credit: Bloomberg
What would Brexit mean for your money?
Calm before (another) storm?
London's benchmark index shutters for the evening. Decision on Brexit referendum due at 7am, markets open at 8am.
The FTSE 100 has closed at its highest level since April 22, when it touched 6,381.44.
Today, the blue chip index suffered a rollercoaster ride surging through 6,300 before retreating in afternoon trade. However, it managed to regain momentum in afternoon trade amid increased expectations Britain will vote to stay in the EU.
European bourses also made robust gains as voting heads into the final stretch.
At close of play:
FTSE 100: +1.23%
DAX: +1.67%
CAC 40: +1.83%
IBEX: +2.12%
Markets enter home stretch ahead of Brexit result
As European markets enter their final stretch before tomorrow's referendum results, here's what analysts in the City have to say: Chris Beauchamp, of IG: "The overall mood across markets remains firmly positive, perhaps a little on the ebullient side as well. Indices in the UK, Europe and the US have posted good gains, although the UK's top 100 index has shed most of the day's advances. Given that it has advanced so strongly in recent days, that is hardly surprising. Buccaneering risk takers that stepped in at the end of last week can't really be blamed for booking their profits now, to either sit back and watch the results come in, or take the saner option and sleep through the night."
Jasper Lawler, of CMC Markets: "Investors who wanted to protect their portfolio against adverse moves in Sterling or other UK assets will have done so already. With polls now showing a bias towards a Remain vote, there is no need for any more hedging."
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