Russia and Israel

Ahmed Hany
May 12, 2009

The ex-Soviet Union was the first country that recognized Israel. Moreover, there was an untold agreement between it and the Western powers to keep the military balance in the Middle East in the favor of the Hebrew State.

The military relaxation in the Middle East was the term agreed by both superpowers while Israel was occupying Sinai, Golan, West Bank and Gaza. Egypt fought against the will of both superpowers to create new strategic facts on the ground, so that political negotiations could be profitable.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia kept the same views in the Middle East. It opened doors for its Jewish community to immigrate to Israel and within few years about a million and half Jews reached Israel from Russia. It kept the military balance by limiting arms supplies to its allies. It frankly assured Israel that its arms supplies to Syria and Iran will not change the military balance in the Middle East. These facts mean that Russia have an interest in keeping Israel in the region and safeguarding its security against all countries including Russia´s allies. This should be clear for those who still see the solution of the conflict in the Middle East would be only achieved by throwing Israel into the sea.

In fact Napoleon was the first who thought about creating a nation for Jews in the East separating Egypt from Turkey so that, the Ottoman Empire would collapse. Let us not forget that Russia saw the Ottoman Empire a strategic threat. The Egyptian army saved Turkey in its war against Russia. Few years later, when Mohamed Ali was about to transfer the capital of the Empire to Cairo to renew it against the will of the Ottoman Sultan, Russia joined the international alliance against Egypt. Then, Russia sees Israel beneficial for its strategy provided that Israel itself does not pose a threat to it. This clears the swinging Russian policy in the Middle East since creation of Israel. The Russians see the Israeli nuclear force hostile because they consider it a part of the Western nuclear force. However they see Israel vital for not creating a great power on their Southern borders.

Within the frame of the global conflict between NATO expansion to the East and the Russian desire to safeguard its vital space, the Balkan War erupted. Regardless of the victory over Georgia, the Russians discovered that their aerial surveillance by their unmanned aircrafts was not advanced like the equipments that their tiny rival used. Former Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Levini asked the military institutions to stop exporting arms to Georgia not to anger Russia. In fact, the untold agreement that kept the military balance in the Middle East is more important for Israel than Georgia.

Israel always tries to keep military relation and cooperation with any country that produce arms. That happened with China, India, Brazil, Argentina and even Turkey. While the Arabs might buy arms from these countries, Israel might provide technical aid to develop their industry. Of course cooperation with Israel is more profitable for these countries.

Anyhow, Arabs would buy the older less advanced versions because they have no other choice. Israel even may spy on the US and exchange secrets with these countries as what happened with China. Therefore, it was normal for Russia to buy advanced unmanned aircrafts with 49 million dollars from Israel. One should not be astonished if Russia went into more cooperative steps as military exercise.

Since the Balkan War, Russia applies a new strategy that compete militarily with the US up to the level of threatening it European allies with ground to ground missiles and with long range strategic bomber planes. It consolidated its military presence in Latin America. Russia chose to return differently to the Middle East. It is returning to this volatile region as one of the Quartet not as a rival to the US. The difference shows the limit of Russian support to the Palestinian cause. Being a rival to the US opens the door for Russia to stand against Israel. Being one of the Quartet means that Russia would support solving the problem to reach the Two-States solution while safeguarding the presence and security of Israel.

Regarding the Iranian nuclear file, Russia is in favor of dialogue. However it refuses and perhaps more than the US that Iran becomes a nuclear power.

Russia does not want another war on its Southern border that may destabilize Central Asia. Even in Afghanistan, Russia is ready to fight if NATO lost the war. It does not want to see Taliban rule again at any cost as the extremism would spread to it small republics that seek independence.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization SCO that was formed by four Central Asian republics along with Russia and China did military exercise and is ready for development in Afghanistan. Some strategic analysts predict that SCO would not last long. However, it showed to the Russians that NATO operations in Afghanistan may form a good base for SCO-NATO cooperation. It is known that the US and NATO use unmanned aircrafts heavily for offensive operations against Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The conclusion is to change the military balance in the Middle East the Arabs should develop their ability to industrialize weapons. Russia may not take policies that contradict with the western powers and at the same time its policies are not a copy of them. The global strategy may open doors for some countries to be allies for a certain aim and their contradicting national strategies may lead them to be rivals in other subjects. The military industry and export is now more opened than before. While Russia buys unmanned aircrafts from Israel and provides Iran with military and nuclear aid, it may sell advanced air defense systems to Turkey, the NATO member while assuring that these systems will not be deployed in Syria and Iran.

Arabs should define their regional strategy and their role in the global strategy before talking to or criticizing global powers. They may discover opportunities by coordinating their strategy with the strategies of some global powers and they would know how to defuse threats. The real security strategy is built in schools, laboratories and research centers.