Apr 13, 2010
Nearly 6,000 active-duty airmen — enlisted and officers — will be cut loose in the next two years because so few are leaving on their own to enter the tough civilian job market.
The drawdown, coupled with the delayed commissioning of hundreds of ROTC cadets and severely curtailed recruitment goals, should allow the Air Force to return to its congressionally mandated active-duty end strength of 332,200 by the start of fiscal 2012. Active-duty end strength at the end of February stood at 335,500. The number is projected to be 336,500 by Sept. 30, the end of fiscal 2010, if the service does not implement the cuts.
Air Force officials estimate the service would have to find nearly $200 million from existing accounts for salaries and benefits in 2010 alone if it does not begin trimming the ranks. They still expect to have additional personnel costs because of the phasing-in of the drawdown but could not give a dollar amount.
The drawdown is one of three reductions outlined to Air Force Times by Brig. Gen. Sharon Dunbar, the Air Staff’s director of force management policy. Those measures will:
— Pare down the officer corps by 1,373 and the enlisted force by 4,376; the numbers do not include expected retirements and separations.
— Postpone until 2011 the commissioning of the 737 ROTC cadets who graduate this spring.
— Hold back enlisted recruitment by 2,681; recruits with delayed entry agreements are not affected.
The service intends to make the reductions through voluntary and involuntary separation programs but will not resort to the involuntary programs until it sees how many airmen leave on their own, Dunbar said.
Voluntary programs such as asking the service to waive service obligations or requesting a transfer to the reserves or Army are available now. Airmen vulnerable to being cut will be notified by their commanders, she said.
The top uniformed leader, Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz, announced the reductions to airmen in a letter dated March 25.
“Please know that Secretary [Michael Donley] and I have carefully considered every option, but in the end, arrived at the conclusion that these force management initiatives are necessary,” Schwartz stated. “We must operate within our means.”
The Air Force knew it had too many airmen last fall, Dunbar said, and tried to address the high retention by asking officers to leave early and moving up separation dates for enlisted airmen already heading out.
About 3,700 airmen needed to take the options, but only 654 — 80 officers and 574 enlistees — signed up for early exits. In addition, more airmen decided to stay on active duty.
Today’s plan is similar to the one the service used to bring down active-duty end strength from 372,000 in 2004 to 328,000 in 2008.
The Air Force still feels the pains of that drawdown.
Several officer career fields targeted for cuts then, such as intelligence, security forces, public affairs and civil engineering, are now labeled as “stressed” — there are not enough officers to fill home base and combat zone requirements without resorting to frequent deployments.
Career fields targeted now, according to Dunbar, are considered overmanned after the service looked at how many officers are needed to do the job and long-term health of the career field.
Despite cutting some Air Force Specialty Codes, many career fields are understaffed, Dunbar said. The Air Force continues to offer retention bonuses to pilots to meet the growing demand for airmen to fly remote-controlled airplanes.
The new cuts will not change the selective re-enlistment bonus program, Dunbar said. Changes, however, could come later this year for AFSCs exceeding their retention requirements.
Some specifics on the drawdown programs:
Enlisted
— Airmen in overmanned AFSCs who want to leave before the end of their four- to six-year contracts will find service commitments waived for up to two years.
— Airmen who have been denied or have declined re-enlistment and have no more than 13 years of service or more than 20 years of service will be required to separate by the end of August. The service estimates about 1,500 airmen are affected.
— Technical school students, not long out of basic training, with poor grades will be discharged instead of having a second chance and retraining into another career field.
— Airmen who want to join Air Force Reserve Command or the Air National Guard can choose the Palace Chase program, which requires only one year of service with the Reserve or Guard for every year left of the active-duty commitment. Programs in the past mandated airmen to serve at least two years for every year left of active-duty commitment.
Officers
— Officers commissioned in 2006 and 2007 — most of them lieutenants — and serving in overmanned career fields will have the option to leave with waived service commitments or face a force-shaping board with the power to dismiss officers with the evaluations. The service will not have to convene the board if 41 airmen volunteer to leave.
These officers do not qualify for separation pay because they have fewer than six years of commissioned service.
— Officers commissioned in 1998-1999 and 2002-2004 now serving in overmanned AFSCs will be eligible for voluntary separation pay. The VSP will be worth twice the involuntary separation payment that is based on their rank and years of service. For example, a major with 12 years of service will qualify for about $188,500.
Officers in the vulnerable AFSCs who do not take VSP could find their careers judged by a reduction-in-force board and then told to leave the service. The RIF boards will not be convened if enough officers — 585 — volunteer to exit. Officers told to leave by the board qualify for involuntary separation pay.
— Retirement-eligible lieutenant colonels and colonels can request a waiver allowing them to retire with just two years in grade instead of three years.
— About 685 lieutenant colonels passed over twice for promotion to colonel and 486 colonels in year groups 1981-1984 with four years in grade can volunteer to retire or face having their records reviewed by selective early retirement board in July.
The Air Force needs up to 30 percent of those officers to retire by January.
Thinning The Force — A Timeline
1986 — Air Force peaks at 603,373 active-duty airmen, the highest since Vietnam War.
1988 — The post-Cold War drawdown shrinks active-duty force to 571,648.
1989-2001 — Drawdown continues; force bottoms out at 347,782 in 2001.
2002-2004 — Service grows at start of two wars, peaking at 372,153 in early 2004, but budget calls for 360,000 airmen.
April 2004 — Air Force must cut 18,000 airmen by end of 2005. Enlisted airmen in 29 career fields compete to re-enlist; those not selected must leave the service.
May 2004 — Recruitment goal for 2005 cut to 20,000 enlistees — 10,000 fewer than 2004.
June 2004 — The Air Force waives service commitments for all career fields and most year groups in an effort to cut 8,000 airmen.
July 2005 — The Air Force hits its goal of about 360,000 airmen, but the service has 4,000 more captains and lieutenants than budgeted.
October 2005 — To rid the service of 1,700 junior officers, the Air Force announces creation of force-shaping boards to decide which officers must go. The young officers can leave voluntarily.
January 2006 — The service plans to cut the force to 316,000 by 2011 to help pay for new planes such as the F-22.
March 2006 — 6,000 unfilled positions get axed as a “painless” way to reduce the ranks.
June 2006 — Incentives are offered to get officers to leave; up to 3,700 airmen could find they can’t re-enlist.
June 2007 — The service shrinks the force to about 334,000 airmen, but still must cut about 18,000 by 2011.
September 2007 — Attrition and voluntary separation are expected to cut 5,600 positions, bringing the active-duty force to 328,000.
October 2007 — With the enlisted drawdown meeting goals, competition will ease in 2008 for first-term airmen who want to re-enlist.
February 2008 — Air Force leaders start pushing for a force of 330,000, but Congress approves money for just 316,000 airmen.
June 2008 — Secretary of the Air Force Michael Wynne and Chief of Staff Gen. Michael Moseley seek an end strength of about 330,000; Defense Secretary Robert Gates announces an end to the drawdown, leaving the service with about 328,000 airmen.
September 2008 — To convince airmen to stay, an expanded Selective Re-enlistment Bonus program is announced. About 17,500 airmen in 88 career specialties qualify.
May 2009 — With enlisted retention better than expected, SRBs are trimmed back, but still ahead of the offers during the drawdown.
November 2009 — Retention is too good, and the service will bust its limit of 331,700 active-duty airmen unless 2,074 officers and 1,633 enlisted airmen separate voluntarily or end their terms ahead of schedule by April 30 — officially called a “date of service rollback.”
January 2010 — The service tightens rules on how long enlisted airmen can stay on active duty if they are not promoted. The change is predicted to send about 2,500 sergeants packing over two years.
March 2010 — Without disclosing how many airmen need to go, the Air Force expands the date of service rollback program for enlisted airmen and offers incentives such as separation pay and extended medical benefits. One week later, the service announces it must cut 6,000 jobs, slow recruitment and delay officer commissionings.
Ways To Trim The Force
From asking for volunteers to ordering airmen to leave, the Air Force has several ways to cut its end strength. A sampling of the programs:
Blue to Green — Airmen can apply to join the Army and serve in jobs that match their Air Force duties and rank.
Date of separation rollback — Enlisted airmen ineligible to re-enlist or nearing retirement can leave earlier.
Force-shaping boards — Aimed at lieutenants who lack the career protection of other officers, these boards are used to select which lieutenants from overmanned Air Force Specialty Code year groups must leave the service. These young officers do not qualify for separation pay. Lieutenants facing review by the board can volunteer to leave.
Reduction-in-force boards — Among the harshest options for officers, these boards meet to decide which officers will be ordered to leave. Often the Air Force uses the threat of RIF boards to persuade officers in overmanned career field year groups to leave voluntarily rather than have their records reviewed by the board, typically composed of colonels and general officers.
Palace Chase — This program eases the transition for enlisted and officers from active-duty service to the Guard and Reserve.
Restricted accessions — The service cuts the number of new enlisted airmen and officers brought into the service.
Selective early retirement board — Usually aimed at officers already qualified to retire, these boards can require officers to retire sooner than they wanted.
Service commitment waiver — These waivers free airmen to leave the service without having to pay back education, training or permanent change-of-station costs.
Time in grade waiver — These waivers are used primarily to allow retirement-eligible lieutenant colonels and colonels to retire with just two years in their final rank instead of three years.
Voluntary separation pay — This payment is typically offered to midcareer officers, primarily captains and majors, as an enticement to leave before they become retirement eligible. The amount of pay varies based on such factors as the officer’s base pay and how much money the Air Force believes is needed to convince an officer to forgo retirement benefits. In 2007, VSP was roughly equal to three years’ base pay.
Who’s Out
Air Force Specialty Code and year groups that could face a force shaping board if not enough of the officers agree to leave:
13S Space & missiles — 2007
15W Weather — 2006
21A Aircraft maintenance — 2006
38F Force support — 2007
61A Operations research — 2006`
61B Behavioral scientist — 2006
61C Chemist/biologist — 2006-07
71S Special investigations — 2006-07
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AFSC and year groups eligible for voluntary separation pay. If not enough officers take the incentive to leave, the service will stand up a reduction-in-force board for:
13S Space & missiles — 2002-04
15W Weather — 1998-99, 2002-04
21A Aircraft maintenance — 1998-99, 2002-04
33S Communications — 1998-99, 2002-04
38F Force support — 1999, 2002-04
52H Chaplain — 1998-99, 2002-04
61B Behavioral scientist — 2002-04
61C Chemist/biologist — 1998-99, 2002-04
65F Financial manager — 1998, 2002-03
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