DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis September 1, 2012, 10:04 AM (GMT+02:00)
Putin gave Comrade Obama more time
US Gen. Martin Dempsey’s assertion Thursday, Aug. 30 that the US would not be “complicit” in an Israel strike against Iran, together with the drastic reduction in the scale of next month’s joint US-Israeli war game disclosed by TIME, add up to a blunt message from US President Barack Obama to Israel: You are on your own! See how you manage without special US weapons and US military backup, including a shield against missile counter-attack, if you decide to defy us and go through with a military operation against Iran.
Instead of the 5,000 US troops originally assigned for Austere Challenge 12, the annual joint exercise, the Pentagon will send only 1,200 to 1,500 service members. The missile interception systems at the core of the joint exercise will be reduced in number and potency: Patriot anti-missiles will come without crews and maybe one instead of two Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense warships, according to the magazine.
debkafile’s military sources: The Obama administration has put Israel on harsh notice that an attack on Iran to disrupt or delay its nuclear armament will be refused US missile backup - both in the course of the operation and to cover Israel’s back in the event of a counter-strike widening into a general Middle East conflict. The Netanyahu government will bear full and exclusive responsibility for the consequences of attacking Iran.
Obama, who has repeatedly pledged his commitment to Israeli security, is the first American president to cut Israeli adrift against a major threat to its security explicitly posed by Iran.
The US president has put his campaign for reelection next month at great albeit calculated risk. His rival Mitt Romney will not doubt follow up on the charges he made during his acceptance speech to the Republican convention Thursday that Obama threw “allies like Israel under the bus” and failed utterly to stop Iran’s centrifuges spinning.
Obama may find the Jewish vote and campaign contributions fading. For Romney an incumbent president throwing Israel to the wolves against the ayatollahs is a dream come true.
Binyamin Netanyahu and his defense minister Ehud Barak must bear some of the onus for one of the most damaging ruptures US-Israel relations have ever faced - as will be discussed later. However, the prime cause must be sought elsewhere.
In the last month, Obama has undergone a change of face: The top US soldier and ambassador Dan Shapiro were told to start treating Israel like a pest and telling its leaders that the administration is fed to the teeth with their clamor for action on Iran.
This change did not come out of the blue. debkafile’s Washington and Moscow sources report it evolved from three events:
1. During this month, President Vladimir Putin severed Russia’s military ties with Iran and Syria as debkafile reported earlier: Obama reciprocated by cutting Israel down to size. Moscow informed Tehran and Damascus that there would be no more Russian arms supplies after the delivery of the last items in the pipeline. Putin therefore left both Iran and Syria high and dry amid war dangers in return for Obama cutting Israel off from advance military hardware at a time of peril.
The Russian and American leaders thus put in place the first bricks of an accord for resolving their disputes over a nuclear Iran and the Syrian crisis by the device of slashing the military capacity of Iran, Israel and Syria.
The Russian president took another step as a gesture to Obama: He pulled Russian warships out of the Syrian base of Tartus and the eastern Mediterranean, leaving only a floating dry dock.
In return, he counted on Washington forcing Israel to abandon any plans to strike Iran.
2. But this exercise in symmetrical reciprocity ran into a major snag: Obama found a tough nut in Jerusalem: Binyamin Netanyahu held out for a pledge of US military action against Iran as his price for holding back. Despite the massive pressure Obama threw at the Israeli government, both through the highest ranking US political and military channels and by mobilizing the government’s most vocal opponents and anti-war circles at home, Netanyahu and Barak did not budge.
They understood, despite Obama’s concealment, that the secret US-Russian deal would in fact preserve Iran’s nuclear program at a point at which Iran’s leaders could have a weapon assembled and unsheathed at any moment.
The also realized that as long as Israel’s military option against Iran was alive, the Obama-Putin deal was stuck, because both Iran’s Ali Khamenei and Syria’s Bashar Assad would likewise refuse to fall into line.
When Romney said he would give America’s friends “more loyalty” and Putin “a little less flexibility and more backbone,” he was referring to President Obama’s request from Putin on June 18, at the G20 conference in Mexico, for more time against his promise to the Russian leader of “more flexibility” later.
To keep his deal with Putin in motion, the US president will have to tighten his squeeze on Israel’s leaders to forego an attack on Iran.
3. The Netanyahu government, for its part, committed three tactical errors:
One: They dragged out the dialogue on Iran with the US administration for far too long - three years or more – and come away for it empty-handed. If their purpose was to persuade the United States to carry the can against Iran, as many Israelis believed, they failed. No Israeli leader has the right to procrastinate to this extent on action affecting its fundamental security, if not existence. Netanyahu fell into the trap of crying wolf by shouting year after year that Iran must be stopped – and doing nothing.
Two: Israel’s deterrent capacity, already sapped by inaction, was further eroded by US General Martin Dempsey’s assertions that Israel lacks the capacity to destroy the Iranian nuclear program.
Three: They failed to act expeditiously to prevent the political opposition using a campaign against an attack on Iran as a stratagem for bringing the government down.
It has been four weeks since the former Mossad director Ephraim Halevi said that if he was an Iranian, he would be worried in the next twelve weeks.
That was on Aug. 2.
Thursday, Aug. 30, Halevi said: “It is important for Israel’s military threat to be credible.”
He was throwing down the gauntlet for Netanyahu and Barak to show they were serious about striking Iran – or else back down completely.
His timeline gives them another eight weeks to show their mettle. During that time, they will be under heavy bombardment from Washington.
Barack Obama is ready to set out the "red lines" that would trigger a US attack on Iran if it continues to press ahead with its nuclear programme, it was claimed on Monday.
President Barack Obama takes the stage to speaks at a campaign event at Scott High School in Toledo, Ohio Photo: AP/Pablo Martinez Monsivais
By Adrian Blomfield, Middle East Correspondent and Robert Tait
6:45PM BST 03 Sep 2012
As his naval forces prepare to stage unprecedented manoeuvres in the Persian Gulf, the president is said to be seeking to match growing military pressure on Tehran by making an explicit declaration of what the US will not tolerate.
Mr Obama has faced mounting criticism from Israel for failing publicly to state how far he is prepared to allow Iran to go before ordering military action.
Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, accused the president of lacking "resolve" on Sunday when he denounced the international community for not "placing a clear red line" for Iran.
Anxious to prevent Israel launching a unilateral attack, Mr Obama is considering complying with Mr Netanyahu's demand, the New York Times said.
An internal debate is under way within the White House as to how specific a warning to Iran should be, with some advisers reportedly urging him that only a strong public commitment to military action will serve to restrain Israel.
With persistent speculation that Mr Netanyahu could order an attack before the US elections in November, Mr Obama has faced a delicate balancing act in his attempts to offer his ally a credible alternative to a military strike.
While he wants to demonstrate the sincerity of his warning that he will never allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, he also wants to ensure that Tehran has a peaceful way out if it chooses to take it.
Seeking to demonstrate the seriousness of the president's intent, the United States and 25 other states will lead the largest-ever minesweeping exercise in the Persian Gulf later this month.
Officials say the manoeuvres are in direct response to Iran's threats to seal the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important waterway. At the same time Washington is to place a new X-Band radar in Qatar, complementing two other systems erected in Israel and Turkey, that will be able to detect missile launches from across Iran.
The United States is also understood to be considering reviving intelligence attempts to sabotage Iran's nuclear facilities.
But even taken together, these steps are considered less important to Israel than a public declaration by Mr Obama about what would bring about American military action.
Disagreements over where the red lines should be drawn are still thought to persist, however. Israel wants to ensure that Iran is stopped before it develops the capacity to build a nuclear weapon and is pressing the Americans to impose a deadline after which sanctions will be replaced with force.
Mr Obama is believed to want more leeway and even as he has sought to reassure Israel he has taken steps to restrain it as well.
Washington is reported to have greatly reduced the scale of US participation in a joint military exercise to be held in Israel next month, slashing the number of troops to be deployed by two-thirds.
More significantly, the number of missile interceptors that were to be sent to Israel for the manoeuvres has also been reduced.
Some in Israel had seen the exercises as a cover to help the country defend itself from retaliation by Iran and its proxies if Mr Netanyahu launched an attack on Tehran's nuclear facilities. The scaled-back participation by the US could be meant to reinforce American warnings against a unilateral Israeli military strike, a former Israeli government official said.
Meanwhile, Iran sought to demonstrate that it had honed its ability to withstand an attack on its nuclear facilities yesterday, claiming that it was on the path to installing a sophisticated domestically-produced air defence system.
Brig Gen Farzad Esmaili, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya air defence base, said that the Bavar 373 would be an improvement on the S300 missiles Iran was thwarted from acquiring from Russia because of international sanctions.
"The new system has higher and more developed capabilities than the S300 for discovering, identifying and destroying the targets while tracking them," he told a conference in Tehran.
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu talks with U.S. president Barack Obama in March 2012. The two have a frosty relationship.
TOLEDO, Ohio – The White House on Monday denied an Israeli newspaper report that accused Washington of secretly negotiating with Tehran to keep the United States out of a future Israel-Iran war.
The Jewish state also played down the front-page report in its biggest-selling daily, Yedioth Ahronoth, which followed unusually public disagreement between the allies about how to tackle Iran’s controversial nuclear program.
“It’s incorrect, completely incorrect,” White House spokesman Jay Carney told Reuters while accompanying President Barack Obama on a campaign trip in Ohio. “The report is false and we don’t talk about hypotheticals.”
Related
Without naming its sources, Yedioth said Washington had approached Tehran through two unidentified European countries to convey the message that the United States would not be dragged into fighting if Israel carried out threats to attack Iran.
Yedioth said the United States told Iran it should in return refrain from retaliating against U.S. interests, including its military in the Gulf.
In Jerusalem, an Israeli official, who asked not to be identified, described the report as illogical.
“It doesn’t make sense,” the official said. “There would be no need to make such a promise to the Iranians because they realize the last thing they need is to attack U.S. targets and draw massive U.S. bombing raids.”
In appearances on Sunday and Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged world powers to set a “clear red line” for Tehran’s atomic program that would convince Iran they were determined to prevent it from obtaining nuclear arms. Such remarks have been portrayed in Israel as criticism of Obama.
Obama, who seeks re-election in November, is fighting accusations from his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, that he is lax in support for Israel.
The Obama administration says it is strongly committed to Israel’s security and to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Iran says its nuclear program is entirely peaceful and has vowed far-ranging reprisals if attacked.
David Buimovitch/AFP
/Getty ImagesIsraelis in Tel Aviv protest against a possible Israeli strike on Iran. Tensions between the two countries have risen over Iran's nuclear program, which Israel says is meant to eventually produce nuclear weapons.
The United States and Israel both accuse Iran of secretly seeking the means to make nuclear arms and say they reserve the right to take military action to prevent Iran from getting them.
However, the Obama administration has repeatedly made clear in public that it thinks diplomacy and tough new sanctions have not yet run their course, even as Israeli officials say the window for effective military action is rapidly closing.
Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Dan Meridor said he still believed Obama’s assurances that Washington was prepared to use force if needed to prevent Iran from developing a bomb.
“I don’t know what kind of messages Yedioth Ahronoth heard,” Meridor said. “But I think the Iranians understand … that if they cross a line towards a bomb, they could encounter very strong resistance, including all the options that are on the table – as the American president has said.”
Obama has had frosty relations with the right-wing Netanyahu, who is due to visit the United States this month.
The Nov. 6 presidential election is seen hinging mostly on the U.S. economy with foreign policy taking a back seat. But support for Israel is an important issue for many U.S. voters, including evangelical Christians as well as Jews who could prove critical in battleground states like Florida and Pennsylvania.
The Iranians realize the last thing they need is to attack U.S. targets and draw massive U.S. bombing raids
Obama wants to shore up his advantage among Jewish voters. He received 78% of the Jewish vote in the 2008 election, but a nationwide Gallup poll in June showed him down to 64% backing versus Romney’s 29%.
Administration officials have also made clear they regard the prospect of an Israeli attack on Iran with alarm.
General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, was quoted in Britain’s Guardian newspaper as saying of a prospective Israeli attack on Iran: “I don’t want to be complicit if they choose to do it.”
The Obama administration and the European Union imposed harsh new sanctions on Iran in July. U.S. officials say they hope that this will persuade Iran to curb its nuclear projects.
Of Dempsey’s comments, Meridor said: “I’m sorry we’ve reached the situation where Dempsey said what he said, but this campaign [against Iran] is continuing and it must be conducted very wisely.”
Netanyahu’s cabinet is divided over the wisdom of attacking Iran, and Israeli officials have dropped heavy hints of a retreat on their strategy, under which Netanyahu would shelve threats of an attack now in return for a stronger public pledge from Obama on conditions that would provoke U.S. action in the future.
“The greater the resolve and the clearer the red line, the less likely we’ll have conflict,” Netanyahu said on Monday.
By REUTERS
09/03/2012 22:52 "The response will be very great," Hezbollah leader says, but adds he doesn't believe J'em will launch a strike soon.
Photo: REUTERS/ Ahmad Shalha
Iran could strike US bases in the Middle East in response to any Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities, the leader of Lebanon's Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah said on Monday.
"A decision has been taken to respond and the response will be very great," Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in an interview with the Beirut-based Al Mayadeen television.
"The response will not be just inside the Israeli entity - American bases in the whole region could be Iranian targets," he said, citing information he said was from Iranian officials. "If Israel targets Iran, America bears responsibility."
But Nasrallah said there were divisions in Israel over attacking Iran's nuclear facilities, which the West says could be part of a nuclear weapons program - a charge which Tehran denies.
"Personally I do not expect the Israeli enemy - at least in the coming months or foreseeable future - (to wage) an attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran," he said.
Yediot Ahronoth reported Monday that the US recently used two European countries to send messages to Iran saying the US would not be dragged into an Israeli attack, and in return expected Iran to refrain from striking US strategic targets in the region.
The White House sharply denied that report.
"It's incorrect, completely incorrect," White House spokesman Jay Carney said while accompanying Obama on a campaign trip in Ohio. "The report is false and we don't talk about hypotheticals."
Intelligence Agencies Minister Dan Meridor said he did not "know what kind of messages Yediot Ahronoth heard, but I think the Iranians understand ... that if they cross a line towards a bomb, they could encounter very strong resistance, including all the options that are on the table - as the American president has said."
Meridor, in an Israel Radio interview, said he did not sense a rupture in Israel's ties with the United States and stressed that it was very important to maintain Washington's support.
Meridor added that the international effort against Iran was taking its toll on the Iranians, who may now fear enriching uranium to a higher, bomb-grade level because of the knowledge they could encounter very strong resistance if they crossed the line towards acquiring a nuclear bomb.
The flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln as it patrols the Persian Gulf (photo credit: AP/Hassan Ammar)
The United States has no intention of joining in a preemptive Israeli strike on Iran and expects the Islamic Republic to refrain from attacking US targets in the case of such an attack, senior Washington officials told their Iranian counterparts, according to a report in Yedioth Ahronoth on Monday.
In recent days, senior administration officials reportedly sent messages to Iran, through diplomats from two European states, addressing the possibility that Israel would launch a unilateral strike and establishing that the US expects Iran to not draw it into a conflict by firing on American army bases and aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf.
Monday’s report came amid widespread debate over the level of coordination between Israel and the US on halting Iran’s nuclear program, which — despite assurances by US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro on Sunday that the relationship is as good as ever — appeared to be strained.
While Israel has warned that the Iranians are quickly approaching a potential weapons capability and that the use of force must be seriously considered, the US says sanctions and international diplomacy must be given more time to work.
Highlighting the disagreement between the two countries on the use of force were reports of a scaling-down of joint US-Israel missile defense exercises in October, and public comments by the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Martin Dempsey, who said last Thursday that he did not want to be “complicit” in an Israeli attack on Iran.
Earlier on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted at criticism of the US position on Iran, telling ministers at the weekly Cabinet meeting that the international community has failed to send a clear message to Iran regarding its nuclear program. Netanyahu said that while international sanctions have harmed Tehran, they haven’t done “anything to stall the progress of the nuclear program.”
On Saturday, former minister Tzachi Hanegbi said the United States is not determined to halt Iran from getting a bomb and last eek’s IAEA report, which indicated that Iran has expanded its capacity for uranium enrichment, granted Israel even more legitimacy to strike Iran on its own.
Meanwhile, the New York Times reported on Monday that the Obama Administration is installing new curbs against Iran as a way to calm Israel and keep Jerusalem from launching an attack. It asserted that the president was considering a declaration of American “red lines.”
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius warned on Monday that an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would backfire, the DPA news agency reported.
"I'm absolutely hostile to Iran having nuclear weapons but I think that if there were an Israeli attack, unfortunately it could come back to haunt Israel by (allowing) Iran to cast itself as a victim," Fabius, was quoted as saying. The minister made the remarks in an interview with France's BFM TV.
"We're saying we should increase sanctions and, at the same time, continue negotiating with Iran to make it give in," he said.
The United Nations, US and European Union have imposed a series of sanctions on Iran over its uranium enrichment program.
'Sanctions starting to take effect.' Fabius (Photo: Reuters)
According to the report, Fabius said the sanctions, which were expanded in July to include an EU oil embargo, were "starting to be effective". He did not expand on what any forthcoming sanctions, saying only: "We are studying all formats."
Clear red line
Fabius' comments echoed remarks made recently by US officials, who appear to be making efforts to deter Israel from employing the military option.
Last week Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey reiterated his stance that the IDF cannot stop Iran's atom aspirations, saying that "I don't want to be complicit if they (Israel) choose to do it."
Two weeks ago, the US general stressed that an Israeli attack could only delay the Islamic Republic's nuclear program.
On Monday, Yedioth Ahronoth reported that the US indirectly informed Iran, via two European nations, that it would not back an Israeli military operation against the country as long as Tehran refrains from attacking American interests in the Persian Gulf.
The White House adamantly denied the report.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who met with American and Israeli war veterans on Monday, said that the "cruel regime" in Iran is forging ahead with its nuclear program because it cannot see "a clear red line." He urged the international community to show its determination against the Islamic Republic's nuclearization in order to minimize the risk of conflict.
Earlier Monday, Iran's air defense commander, Farzad Esmaili, said that his country has completed roughly 30% of a missile defense system that is meant as an alternative to the Russian S-300 system, which Moscow refused to sell Tehran. He said the system is slated to be completed by next year.
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